Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/14)

2024-10-05 10:11:01

Collection

Recently, the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have changed significantly, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut rising to 50%. This data is based on the latest pricing from swap market traders, a substantial increase from 15% on Thursday, reflecting growing confidence in the Fed's imminent larger rate cuts. As expectations for rate cuts have risen, the U.S. stock market has performed strongly, with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index rising by 4% and 6%, respectively, marking the largest weekly gains of the year. This change has also triggered a strong rebound in small-cap stocks, as investors flock to stocks that benefit from monetary easing policies.

1. Attention Value - Market Highlights

Market Conditions

(1) Macroeconomic Environment:

l The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has surged to 50%, boosting market confidence.

Recently, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have changed significantly, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut rising to 50%. This data is based on the latest pricing from swap market traders, a substantial increase from 15% on Thursday, reflecting enhanced market confidence in the Fed's imminent larger rate cuts. As expectations for rate cuts have risen, the U.S. stock market has performed strongly, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices rising by 4% and 6%, respectively, marking the largest single-week gains of the year. This shift has also triggered a strong rebound in small-cap stocks, as investors flock to stocks that benefit from monetary easing policies.

Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley pointed out that the current interest rate levels are a constraint on economic growth and believes that a 50 basis point cut is a reasonable choice. He emphasized that the risks of economic slowdown outweigh the challenges of inflation, which also supports the Fed's adoption of more aggressive rate cuts. Meanwhile, Tim Duy, chief economist at SGH Macro Advisors, stated that a 50 basis point cut is "the least regrettable choice" and noted that the Fed should adopt a more proactive policy in the current economic environment.

Despite the rising expectations for a 50 basis point cut, there remains an expectation for a 25 basis point cut, and some analysts believe the Fed may ultimately opt for a smaller cut. Institutions like Goldman Sachs have indicated that despite the shift in market sentiment, a 25 basis point cut remains a more prudent choice. Overall, the market is filled with uncertainty regarding the Fed's decisions, especially in light of the upcoming presidential election, as policymakers must find a balance between curbing inflation and supporting economic growth.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l Bitcoin "whale" MicroStrategy invests $1.1 billion to increase its holdings, with a market value exceeding $14 billion.

MicroStrategy has recently invested approximately $1.11 billion to increase its Bitcoin holdings, marking the largest accumulation in three years. According to the latest filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, from August 6 to September 12, MicroStrategy purchased a total of 18,300 Bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to approximately 244,800 Bitcoins, accounting for about 1% of the total Bitcoin supply. Based on the current Bitcoin price, its holdings are valued at over $14 billion, nearly equivalent to 70% of the world's largest Bitcoin spot ETF. MicroStrategy's average purchase price is about $38,600 per Bitcoin, and with recent Bitcoin prices rising above $60,000, the company's investment returns have further increased. Co-founder and Chairman Michael Saylor stated that holding Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation and revealed that MicroStrategy's Bitcoin yield has reached 17% this year. Saylor also mentioned that the company is committed to securitizing Bitcoin to provide new investment opportunities for traditional investors.

2. Hot Events

Macroeconomic Environment:

l CoreWeave's valuation skyrockets to $23 billion, plans to sell shares and consider an IPO next year.

Cloud computing company CoreWeave's valuation has soared to $23 billion, a 20.4% increase from $19.1 billion in May. The company is considering selling $400 to $500 million in shares from existing shareholders and plans to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) as early as next year. Headquartered in New Jersey and led by CEO Michael Intrator, CoreWeave focuses on providing cloud computing services based on NVIDIA graphics processing units (GPUs). Since its establishment in 2017, CoreWeave has attracted significant investment from numerous investors, including Magnetar Capital and Blackstone, due to its rapid growth in the AI sector. The latest valuation reflects the company's swift expansion amid surging AI demand, and its IPO is expected to be one of the largest public offerings in the AI field.

Web3 Sector:

l MoonPay registers with AUSTRAC, officially providing digital currency exchange services in Australia.

Cryptocurrency payment infrastructure company MoonPay has registered with the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC), enabling it to offer digital currency exchange services. This registration will allow MoonPay to establish local payment processing relationships and provide Australian users with alternative payment methods, including Osko and Pay ID. As a registered entity, MoonPay will comply with Australia's Anti-Money Laundering/Counter-Terrorism Financing Act and must meet reporting, Know Your Customer (KYC), and record-keeping requirements.

Insiders revealed that the AI and data project Grass Network has completed a Series A funding round led by Hack VC, with a valuation nearing $1 billion. According to BlockBeats, this funding round also saw participation from Polychain Capital, Delphi Digital, Lattice, and Brevan Howard Digital, although the specific funding amount has not been disclosed. Grass Network aims to redefine the incentive structure of the internet by allowing users to share unused internet bandwidth resources, currently boasting over 2 million users running nodes to help AI models scrape vast amounts of data. The infrastructure of Grass has the potential to create the first user-owned internet-level web crawler, aiming to build a collaboratively owned knowledge graph of the entire internet, challenging the current web scraping capabilities held only by Google and Bing. The project completed a $3.5 million seed funding round last December.

3. Hot Narratives

CARV is a modular identity data layer designed for gaming and artificial intelligence (AI) services, aimed at returning data sovereignty to users, protecting data privacy, and enabling data tokenization and value release. CARV efficiently connects users with games and AI products, helping users earn data rewards while promoting the development and innovation of games and AI.

The technical implementation of CARV relies primarily on its modular protocol, which includes several key components: the identity layer is responsible for user identity verification and authentication, supporting Web2 social logins to lower participation barriers; the storage layer aggregates and stores user data, ensuring data security and accessibility; the computation and training layer processes user data using privacy-enhancing technologies to ensure data security during processing; the execution layer ensures that all data transactions are securely recorded on the blockchain and can be verified; the verification layer validates data through decentralized community nodes, ensuring that data usage aligns with user expectations and protects privacy. The design of the CARV protocol allows users to seamlessly switch between different platforms while enhancing data liquidity and utilization efficiency.

The success of CARV is closely tied to its widespread application in gaming and AI. Through collaborations with several well-known game studios, CARV has quickly attracted a large user base. For instance, CARV Play, its flagship product, has listed over 900 games, reaching 2.5 million users, making it the largest Web3 game distribution and social platform.

Additionally, CARV attracts users to participate in data sharing and social activities through real economic incentives, leading to natural growth. For example, in the TON ecosystem mini-game BANANA, CARV successfully attracted a large number of users through precise advertising and KOL promotion.

The CARV team consists of industry elites, including co-founder and COO Victor Y. from Harvard Business School, who has a background in McKinsey and extensive entrepreneurial experience. CARV's CTO and CGO also have deep backgrounds in the cryptocurrency and gaming industries.

In terms of financing, CARV has completed over $50 million in funding, attracting support from well-known investment institutions such as Tribe Capital, IOSG, and ConsenSys. Furthermore, Web2 giants like Alibaba have also expressed interest in CARV, further enhancing its market recognition.

The CARV token TGE (Token Generation Event) is expected to take place in the second half of 2024. The total issuance of CARV tokens is 1 billion, with 50% allocated to the community and nodes. Users can become independent node operators and earn token rewards by participating in node sales.

Users can also earn SOUL rewards through activities such as signing in, minting CARV IDs, and binding accounts, which can later be exchanged for CARV tokens. CARV has also launched various incentive measures to encourage users to actively participate in ecosystem activities, ensuring fair distribution of tokens.

4. Potential Catalysts

A survey by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) shows that 55% of American Gen Z prefers to invest in cryptocurrencies. Gen Z prefers to manage finances online through decentralized financial applications and digital dollar stablecoins rather than using traditional digital banking platforms, which they find clunky and opaque. Gen Z typically refers to individuals born between 1997 and 2012, currently aged between 12 and 27.

2. Attention Value - Hot Projects

1. Social Media Highlights

Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July of this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for trading. Although recent declines in $ETH due to reduced income and whale exits have been significant, the market remains primarily optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.

Key Projects:

ZKsync is an Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution based on zk-rollup architecture, aimed at achieving high-performance, low-cost smart contracts and blockchain applications. It utilizes zk-rollup technology to achieve high throughput scaling, reducing transaction costs and increasing confirmation speeds. Its product zkSync Era is built on the zkSync protocol, featuring faster transaction speeds, higher scalability, and more cost-effective characteristics, applied in various fields such as DeFi, cross-chain bridges, and NFTs, garnering significant attention from the capital markets.

Recently, the project's on-chain governance system was officially launched, reflecting the core attributes of resilience, distribution, and mission consistency in ZKsync's on-chain governance, which reinforces the values of ZK Credo— the right to fork or exit, and the community's ability to verify decisions and actions in a trustless manner.

2. Smart Money Accumulation

Smart Money Holdings

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

BANANA(@BananaGunBot /X)

Banana Gun ($BANANA) is a multi-chain trading bot based on Telegram, designed to protect users from maximum extractable value (MEV) bots and specific types of scams and vulnerabilities such as rug pulls and sandwich attacks. In addition to providing protection against malicious bots and scams, the Banana Gun bot offers flexible trading opportunities through automatic interception, automatic limit orders, and manual swaps.

POPCAT(@POPCATSOLANA /X)

$POPCAT is a cryptocurrency based on the Solana blockchain, originating from a popular internet cat meme called "Oatmeal." The meme gained popularity in 2020, where users clicked on the cat's image to score points for their country, creating a global clicking competition. With the meme's popularity, Popcat was transformed into a cryptocurrency aimed at leveraging community participation and enthusiasm.

Smart Money Inflows

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. GNUS(@GnusAi /X)

GNUS AI is a Web3 project that combines artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technology, aiming to process complex AI and machine learning (ML) tasks by utilizing the idle computing power of users' devices. The platform's core token is $GNUS, and users can purchase GNUS tokens to pay for AI/ML processing requests.

2. PONKE(@ponkesol /X)

$PONKE is a meme coin built on Solana, themed around monkeys, described by its issuer as "a fallen gambler with emotional issues." The project launched in late December 2023, and to increase its visibility, users can wear virtual helmets on the Ponke website and use the Helmet Tool to overlay Ponke helmet images on their photos or avatars and support the project on Facebook.