Trump concept stocks fell broadly in pre-market trading, with Trump Media & Technology Group down nearly 11% and Phunware down over 8%. Additionally, Bitcoin fell below $57,000, and several cryptocurrency concept stocks also declined in pre-market, with MARA Holdings, MicroStrategy, and CleanSpark down about 3.8%, and Riot Platforms and Coinbase down over 2%. Trump had previously shifted to publicly support cryptocurrencies. Tesla fell over 1% in pre-market, and Musk has expressed support for Trump and participated in his fundraising activities.

The market is waiting for tomorrow night's U.S. inflation data, with little fluctuation in the futures of the three major U.S. stock indices before the market opens. The release of the iPhone 16 has led to a nearly 1% drop in Apple’s pre-market stock. The latest survey from the New York Fed shows that consumer inflation expectations for the next three years have risen, with mixed expectations for the labor market.

Last Friday, the non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, reigniting concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy and leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks. Both the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping by as much as 3% at one point, but the losses subsequently narrowed. As expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased, European and American stock markets rebounded significantly, with most star tech stocks rising, and Tesla gaining over 2%.

Although the U.S. CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, the lowest since 2021, the core CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month, higher than expected, indicating that inflation in the U.S. remains sticky. Traders sharply cut aggressive rate cut expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week rising from 66% to 85%. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields surged in the short term, while U.S. stocks fell over 1% at the beginning of trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 743 points, breaking below the 40,000 mark.

The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau released the latest CPI data yesterday, showing that the consumer price index growth rate in August fell to 2.5%, below the expected 2.6% and lower than July's 2.9%. This marks the fifth consecutive month of slowdown and is the lowest level since March 2021. The core CPI year-on-year growth rate for August, excluding food and energy prices, is 3.2%, matching both the expected value and the previous value. However, the month-on-month core CPI growth rate is slightly higher than expected at 0.3%, causing the month-on-month core CPI data to slightly exceed expectations, which reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this year. After the CPI data was released, the market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this month has increased from 66% yesterday to 85%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut has decreased to 15%.

Recently, the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have changed significantly, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut rising to 50%. This data is based on the latest pricing from swap market traders, a substantial increase from 15% on Thursday, reflecting growing confidence in the Fed's imminent larger rate cuts. As expectations for rate cuts have risen, the U.S. stock market has performed strongly, with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index rising by 4% and 6%, respectively, marking the largest weekly gains of the year. This change has also triggered a strong rebound in small-cap stocks, as investors flock to stocks that benefit from monetary easing policies.

Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July of this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for trading. Although factors such as reduced income and whale exits have caused a significant drop in $ETH recently, the market remains largely optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seems to be easing its stance on the proposed crypto accounting policy SAB-121, allowing banks to adopt a "bankruptcy isolation" approach to custody customer assets, thereby circumventing some regulations. According to an analysis by the head of research at Galaxy, SEC Chief Accountant Paul Munter has proposed some exemption conditions that allow bank holding companies and introducing brokers to be exempt from the custody requirements in SAB-121.

After experiencing a "summer storm," the U.S. stock market is gradually recovering, mainly thanks to the strong performance of the 493 components of the S&P 500 index, excluding the seven tech giants. Since mid-July, tech stocks have overall declined by 5.3%, but the S&P 500 index has dropped by less than 1%, demonstrating the resilience of other sectors such as real estate and utilities, which have risen by 11% respectively. Over the past two years, tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft have been the main drivers of the market due to their profit growth and artificial intelligence initiatives. However, as concerns about slowing economic growth intensify and expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve rise, investors are beginning to shift towards traditional sectors such as real estate and consumer staples.

Glen Capelo, Managing Director of Fixed Income at Mischler Financial Group, stated that if the Federal Reserve chooses to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, it could lead to a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, but this outcome largely depends on Powell's press conference.

On September 18, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.00%. This is the first rate cut since March 2020, with a decrease of 50 basis points. The decision was passed with a vote of 11 to 1, with only Federal Reserve Governor Bowman opposing, advocating for a 25 basis point cut.

According to Bloomberg, on Monday, Ed Yardeni, a well-known strategist on Wall Street and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., stated that due to the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut last week, the U.S. stock market could soar to new highs, but if the central bank's chairman does not act cautiously, it could also lead to a resurgence of inflation. He also pointed out, "The latest policy decision has increased the likelihood of stock prices 'melting up' from 20% to 30%, a phenomenon similar to the S&P 500's 220% surge from 1995 to the end of the last century during the internet bubble." He believes the probability of a bull market is 80%, while the likelihood of a market turmoil similar to the 1970s is 20%, when global stock markets were shaken by inflation and geopolitical tensions.

Last week, the Federal Reserve initiated a significant rate cut of 50 basis points. Jill Carey Hall and her team of quantitative strategists at Bank of America pointed out in their latest research report on Tuesday that the bank's clients have been aggressively buying U.S. stocks, with a net purchase of $6.9 billion, marking the largest inflow of funds since October 2022 and the third-largest inflow in the history of Bank of America's data, with the so-called "smart money" inflow being the most pronounced.

On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut, marking the beginning of a loosening cycle. However, analysts warn that the upcoming earnings season is more important for U.S. stocks. Although the S&P 500 index has risen about 19% this year, the market needs to be cautious of the panic that may arise from downward revisions of corporate profit expectations.

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, U.S. stocks reached an all-time high, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that the global economy faces serious challenges, similar to the pressures of the Great Depression in the last century. In her speech at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, Lagarde mentioned that the current global economy is affected by factors such as "economic nationalism," the collapse of global trade, and technological advancements, which bear similarities to the situation in the 1920s.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed skepticism about the prospects of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, believing the likelihood is low. He pointed out that although inflation has decreased, it will not easily dissipate due to factors such as fiscal deficit spending. Dimon stated at an event on Friday that he is not optimistic about the economic outlook after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, emphasizing that inflation may be more stubborn than investors expect.

On September 2, Bitfinex Alpha stated in its latest report that this month's U.S. interest rate decision is expected to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's short-term volatility and long-term trend. Since early August, Bitcoin has risen over 32%, driven by market participants' expectations that the Federal Reserve will make dovish statements. A 25 basis point rate cut could mark the beginning of a typical easing cycle, and with increased liquidity and alleviated recession concerns, Bitcoin may achieve long-term price increases. On the other hand, a more aggressive 50 basis point cut could lead to a price increase, but with heightened recession concerns, a subsequent pullback may occur.

The U.S. non-farm data for August left both optimistic and pessimistic sides not entirely "satisfied." The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, which met expectations and extinguished the recession signals released by the "Sam Rule." However, the addition of 142,000 jobs in August was below the expected 165,000, and the previous value was also significantly revised down, adding to the signs of a slowing labor market. The S&P fell 1.7%, down over 4% for the week, the Dow dropped 1%, down nearly 3% for the week, and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, down 5.8% for the week, entering a technical consolidation phase.

This week, the employment data released in the U.S. has been continuously signaling weakness, and market expectations for a 50bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve are heating up. Tonight, the heavyweight non-farm payroll data may trigger significant market fluctuations. U.S. stock index futures are trading lower before the market opens, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures down over 1%, Broadcom down nearly 8%, and Nvidia down over 1.5%. The Asia-Pacific markets are generally lower, and European stocks also opened lower collectively. Economic concerns are intensifying, risk aversion is rising, and U.S. Treasury yields have continued to decline today. Meanwhile, the dollar is weakening again, and the yen is strengthening. The "fear index" VIX is rising. The three major U.S. stock index futures are collectively down before the market opens. The Nasdaq 100 index futures are down over 1%, Broadcom is down nearly 8%, and Nvidia is down over 1.5%.

The economic conditions report released by the Federal Reserve is not very optimistic in its overall assessment of the economy. The number of regions where economic activity is flat or declining increased from 5 in July to 9, and consumer spending has slowed in most areas. The labor market shows mixed signals; uncertainty about the economic outlook has led businesses to be reluctant to hire more employees, although layoffs remain rare. 2024 voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that there is now greater confidence in a sustainable return of the inflation rate to the 2% target, and officials cannot wait for U.S. inflation to fall to 2% before cutting interest rates.