Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/12)
Although the U.S. CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, the lowest since 2021, the core CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month, higher than expected, indicating that inflation in the U.S. remains sticky. Traders sharply cut aggressive rate cut expectations, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week rising from 66% to 85%. The dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields surged in the short term, while U.S. stocks fell over 1% at the beginning of trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 743 points, breaking below the 40,000 mark.1. Attention Value - Market Highlights
1. Market Trends
(1) Macroeconomic Sector:
l US stocks fell over 1% before a strong reversal, Nvidia rose 8%
Although the US August CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, the lowest since 2021, the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, higher than expected, indicating that inflation in the US remains sticky. Traders drastically cut aggressive rate cut expectations, with bets on the Federal Reserve lowering rates by 25 basis points next week rising from 66% to 85%. The dollar index and US Treasury yields surged briefly, with US stocks initially falling over 1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 743 points below the 40,000 mark.
After lunch, US stocks made a V-shaped reversal, boosted by Nvidia's strong performance. Jensen Huang exaggeratedly emphasized the immense product demand, with Nvidia closing up 8%, marking the largest single-day gain in six weeks. The Nasdaq stopped its decline and rose over 2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices completely erased intraday losses of at least 1.5% for the first time in two years, with the chip index rising nearly 5%.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Strong hands in BTC are taking over weak hands' positions
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, pointed out to The Block that short-term holders have not yet started accumulating Bitcoin and are even still selling, indicating that demand for Bitcoin remains weak. However, long-term holders have been continuously accumulating Bitcoin during this period.
He emphasized that if demand for Bitcoin grows again, the situation may reverse, with short-term holders re-entering the market and purchasing Bitcoin from long-term holders.
CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech stated that the flow of funds is showing a shift from "weak hands (short-term holders)" to "strong hands (long-term holders)," which is typically seen as a signal of market stability. This could lead to a rise in Bitcoin prices and stabilize the market in the medium term, or prepare for a potential market rebound, although the selling pressure from short-term holders may still affect Bitcoin prices in the short term. Similar institutions will continue to attempt to present favorable market data, such as CryptoQuant stating at the end of March that the selling by short-term holders and miners had ended, and in July indicating that related metrics had rebounded.
2. Hot Events
(1) Macroeconomic Sector:
l Harris leads after the US presidential election debate
After the US presidential election debate, polls showed that 63% of viewers believed Harris won, prompting the market to further unwind the "Trump trade," which led to a temporary weakening of the dollar, with US Treasury yields falling to a two-year low, and Trump media stocks dropping over 17%.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Swift launches global infrastructure to simplify tokenized asset transfers
On September 12, Swift announced on September 11 the launch of a global infrastructure plan aimed at simplifying the transfer of tokenized assets and allowing members to utilize the Swift network for trading traditional and emerging assets, including cryptocurrencies. The plan will test delivery versus payment (DvP) and payment versus payment (PvP) transactions, with expectations of enabling real-time payments and exchanges of tokenized assets.
According to SCMP, Hong Kong is currently exploring whether to involve the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Hong Kong Customs (C&ED) in regulating over-the-counter (OTC) virtual asset trading services. Insiders revealed that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has sought industry opinions on possibly implementing a new licensing regime for cryptocurrency OTC trading services, which would allow the securities regulator to collaborate with C&ED to oversee these companies, as discussions are private. According to a proposal made public in February, the planned OTC regulations and licenses were previously solely the domain of C&ED. OTC trading services facilitate direct and private large-scale cryptocurrency transactions between parties. Insiders indicated that in recent months, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has also consulted companies about introducing a new licensing regime for cryptocurrency custody services. They noted that discussions regarding these two licenses are still in the early stages and may change.
3. Hot Narratives
Fractal Bitcoin is an extension solution for Bitcoin, aimed at recursively creating infinitely scalable layers on BTC using the core BTC code to enhance transaction processing capacity and speed, while maintaining full compatibility with the existing Bitcoin ecosystem. Simply put, it is a fork (or modified clone) of Bitcoin Core v24.0.1. You can think of it as a small BTC chain with some adjusted parameters compared to the current BTC. Differences include block time, continuous difficulty adjustment, total token supply (210 million instead of 21 million), initial block reward amount, halving cycle, activation of OP_CAT, etc.
Potential Future Profit Opportunities
Secondary trading opportunities after FB's exchange listing. If FB maintains its popularity, it is highly likely that subsequent second-tier exchanges will list it. As for whether it can be listed on bn, that might be a bit difficult, given the current circulation. However, it is speculated that the supply-demand relationship of FB may still be profitable for a certain period.
On-chain inscriptions. For example, the already released FLUX and the ongoing Cat Protocol that adopted OP_CAT. The advantage of low liquidity is that it is easy to pump, but the downside is that it can be difficult to sell.
On-chain Meme/NFT. You can pay attention to markets similar to pumpfun.
4. Potential Catalysts
According to Decrypt, the UK government introduced a landmark initiative in Parliament on Wednesday, aiming to clarify the legal status of digital assets (including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as well as NFTs), treating them as personal property under UK and Welsh law. Once passed, this bill will create a third category of personal property, surpassing the current classifications of "possessory" and "actionable." This new category will cover certain digital assets and provide them with clear legal recognition and protection. Justice Minister Heidi Alexander stated that the law must keep pace with evolving technology, and this legislation means that the industry can maintain its global leading position in the crypto asset space and bring clarity to complex property cases.
2. Attention Value - Hot Projects
1. Social Media Highlights
Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2, it has become one of the most used blockchains by users. In July of this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for trading. Although recent declines in $ETH have been attributed to reduced income and whale exits, the market remains largely optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.
Key Projects:
- FB
Fractal Bitcoin is an extension solution based on the Bitcoin core code, aimed at gradually expanding the Bitcoin blockchain into a scalable computing system without compromising consistency with the Bitcoin main chain. It enhances transaction processing capacity and speed by recursively creating infinitely scalable layers on the Bitcoin main chain, with a block confirmation time of about 30 seconds and a transaction processing capacity 20 times that of the Bitcoin main chain. The launch of the project brings new development opportunities to the Bitcoin ecosystem and is expected to address Bitcoin's scalability issues, facilitating more DeFi activities on the Bitcoin network.
On September 9, Fractal Bitcoin's mainnet went live, with the average block reward in the past 24 hours rising to 35.3 FB, TPS at 20.06 transactions per second, and the number of addresses holding FB increasing by 65,725 to reach 179,833.
2. Smart Money Accumulation
- Smart Money Holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Overview:
1. CATE (@cateonethereum /X)
A new meme coin that appeared on Ethereum this month, its prototype cat is the friend of $DOGE's prototype Kabosu, referred to as "Kabosu Mama." AscendEX (formerly BitMax) will launch $CATE on the 10th, with the price rising significantly.
2. POPCAT (@POPCATSOLANA /X)
$POPCAT is a meme token based on the Solana blockchain, inspired by the popular internet meme "Popcat," which features a cat named Oatmeal making a "pop" sound as it opens and closes its mouth. Although $POPCAT has no official connection to the original meme, its launch quickly attracted community attention and achieved significant growth in the crypto market. Binance's derivatives trading platform Binance Futures recently announced the listing of $POPCAT.
- Smart Money Inflows
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Overview:
1. DEAI (@zero1_labs /X)
DEAI (Zero1 Labs) is a token for a decentralized artificial intelligence (DeAI) ecosystem, aimed at promoting the integration of data governance and AI technology. The token is designed to provide developers and users with a secure, modular, and interconnected platform through blockchain technology, facilitating the creation and use of DeAI applications.
2. JUP (@JupiterExchange /X)
Jupiter (JUP) is a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform based on the Solana blockchain, primarily serving as a liquidity aggregator, aimed at optimizing and simplifying cryptocurrency trading. The platform integrates liquidity from multiple decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to provide users with the best trading prices and experiences. Recently, the project's co-founder stated that previous work focused on enhancing liquidity and improving order processes, and they have recently secured sufficient liquidity and improved data, with significant updates expected soon.
3. Attention Value - Sector Rotation
1. Hot Sectors
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Internal Sector
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
