Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/8)
On September 2, Bitfinex Alpha stated in its latest report that this month's U.S. interest rate decision is expected to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's short-term volatility and long-term trend. Since early August, Bitcoin has risen over 32%, driven by market participants' expectations that the Federal Reserve will make dovish statements. A 25 basis point rate cut could mark the beginning of a typical easing cycle, and with increased liquidity and alleviated recession concerns, Bitcoin may achieve long-term price increases. On the other hand, a more aggressive 50 basis point cut could lead to a price increase, but with heightened recession concerns, a subsequent pullback may occur.1. Attention Value - Market Highlights
1. Market Trends
Web3 Sector:
l Bitfinex Alpha: Interest rate hikes will stimulate increases, but will subsequently pull back; the bottom for BTC may be between $40,000 and $50,000
On September 2, Bitfinex Alpha stated in its latest report that this month's U.S. interest rate decision is expected to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's short-term volatility and long-term trends. Since early August, Bitcoin has risen over 32%, driven by market participants' expectations that the Federal Reserve will make dovish statements. A 25 basis point rate cut could mark the beginning of a typical easing cycle, and with increased liquidity and alleviated recession concerns, Bitcoin may achieve long-term price increases. On the other hand, a more aggressive 50 basis point cut could lead to price increases, but with heightened recession concerns, a pullback may follow.
l 10x Research: Market structure and fundamentals have gradually weakened; each decline becomes deeper, while recoveries are weaker
10x Research posted on social media that while it remains optimistic about the medium- to long-term prospects for digital assets, caution is needed in the short term. Although the market experienced V-shaped rebounds after declines in early May, early July, and early August, the underlying market structure and fundamentals have gradually weakened, resulting in deeper declines and weaker subsequent recoveries. The latest month-end data suggests that the market may face a critical turning point in September.
Previously, on August 28, 10x Research indicated in its analysis that the recent rebound in the Bitcoin market was strategic, with $65,000 being crucial for on-paper profits. As expected, the FOMC meeting minutes and Powell's dovish stance drove the rebound in Bitcoin, with potential short squeezes pushing Bitcoin prices higher. However, despite its predicted increase of 10%, these gains have now been completely retraced, and significant risks are beginning to emerge as September approaches.
2. Hot Events
Web3 Sector:
l TON mini-game Catizen claims 34 million users since launch 6 months ago
TON mini-game Catizen claims to have reached 34 million users since its launch 6 months ago, with 2.24 million users being Telegram Premium users. Catizen claims to rank first in revenue among all Telegram apps, with over 2 million on-chain active players and a total of 800,000 paying users, resulting in an ARPPU of $33, equating to total revenue of $26.4 million. This data may primarily be driven by airdrop volume manipulation. Bybit and others have announced a token listing on September 20.
l Tether enters the food industry! Invests $100 million in South American agricultural giant Adecoagro, becoming the third-largest shareholder
According to Argentina's Financial Daily this week, stablecoin leader USDT issuer Tether has recently invested $100 million to acquire a 9.8% stake in Latin American agricultural giant Adecoagro, becoming Adecoagro's third-largest shareholder, marking Tether's first investment in the agriculture and food sector.
3. Hot Narratives
The Parallel Ethereum Virtual Machine (Parallel EVM) is an upgraded version of the traditional Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), enhancing blockchain transaction throughput by processing multiple non-conflicting transactions simultaneously, thereby improving transaction processing speed and efficiency. The Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) is the consensus and execution mechanism of the Ethereum network, responsible for processing and executing transactions. However, in the traditional EVM, transactions and smart contract executions occur sequentially. Each transaction must be processed one after another, forming a linear ordered process. While this method is simple, it can lead to bottlenecks, especially as transaction volumes increase. Each transaction must wait its turn, potentially increasing processing times, leading to delays and higher costs (in terms of gas fees).
The Parallel EVM significantly improves blockchain throughput and execution speed by processing multiple non-conflicting transactions simultaneously. For example, if Bob wants to make a swap, Alice wants to mint a new NFT, and Eric wants to stake funds to a validator, these transactions can be processed simultaneously rather than sequentially, reducing transaction processing time and costs. This parallel processing capability allows the blockchain to handle more transactions in a shorter time, addressing congestion issues in traditional blockchain systems.
Monad is a Layer 1 blockchain project based on EVM, aiming to significantly enhance blockchain scalability and transaction speed through its unique technical features. Monad can process up to 10,000 transactions per second, with a one-second block time and instant finality. This efficient performance is attributed to its unique Monadbft consensus mechanism and compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM).
Currently, Monad's Parallel EVM supports processing 10,000 transactions per second, with a block time of just 1 second, using a PoS mechanism to enhance network security and energy efficiency, with plans to launch its mainnet in the third quarter of 2024.
The official account has also accumulated 283,000 followers on Twitter, leading a passionate and active community. Notably, the Ethereum community seems very excited about the upcoming Monad, positioning it favorably to capture early hype and adoption.
4. Potential Catalysts
Elon Musk's mysterious "Doge" post has once again injected vitality into Dogecoin (Doge), with hopes of reviving it from recent lows. The billionaire CEO of Tesla has made similar posts multiple times, and almost every time these mentions have triggered increases in meme coin values.
On September 7, Musk posted again about the Department of Government Efficiency on Facebook and later shared an AI-generated image featuring himself and the abbreviation "Doge." This is not the first time Musk (who is also the owner of the Facebook X social media platform) has made such posts. In August, BeInCrypto reported similar developments that impacted Dogecoin's price, causing it to rise by 6%. Additionally, the post seems to align with speculation that if Musk wins the U.S. election in November, he may play a role in Donald Trump's administration.
From an on-chain perspective, Musk's recent actions have triggered a significant surge in the dominance of cryptocurrency social discussions. This surge indicates an increase in active discussions surrounding Doge.
