Matrixport Research: BTC mass adoption may stagnate, and whale holdings are an important factor supporting BTC prices
Why is BTC price continuously consolidating while ETFs are strongly attracting capital?BTC ETF has cumulatively attracted over $45 billion in inflows, with stable corporate allocation demand and growing institutional interest. Under strong demand, why is the BTC price in a consolidation phase? This requires analysis from key indicators such as wallet behavior, liquidity trends, and volatility compression. The shift in BTC's market dominance is undeniable.
Significant Change in Market Narrative, BTC Adoption Stalls for the First Time
Each round of the BTC bull market is usually led by a new narrative logic, attracting a large number of buyers under the encouragement of a new batch of "evangelists," ultimately triggering a parabolic price increase. The market's leaders have also undergone significant changes: from early evangelists like "Bitcoin Jesus" to Wall Street giants like Larry Fink. However, this round of market activity is fundamentally different: public adoption has stalled for the first time, and the available trading chips are being rapidly absorbed by a few capital-rich buyers.
It is undeniable that when the price of a single BTC exceeds the average price of a new car in the U.S. (about $45,000), many retail investors begin to feel it is "too expensive," even shying away from it. This psychological barrier may be one of the reasons why the number of new wallet addresses is stagnating—BTC is now more viewed as a "store of value" tool rather than an asset for daily transactions, leading more people to choose to hold it long-term rather than frequently transfer it.
Shift in Market Dominance, BTC ETF Continues to Attract Capital
The dominant force in BTC is shifting from "super whales," early miners, and long-term holders to whale-level institutional funds—such as BTC ETFs, corporate treasuries, and institutional funds. This restructuring of holding patterns has become a key driving force in the current market. With retail funds nearly depleted, these two types of participants have become the only remaining dominant forces in the market.
Nevertheless, BTC ETFs have still cumulatively attracted about $45 billion in new funds, with 77% of months achieving net inflows and an average monthly scale of $2.6 billion. The peak of the first wave of inflows occurred at the beginning of the ETF launch, boosted by the rise in BTC funding rates. The second wave of inflows began in September 2024 when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates; subsequently, Trump publicly threatened to replace Fed Chair Powell, raising market awareness of the Fed's independence and triggering the start of the third wave of buying.
"Whale" funds continue to provide support, but the real test is quietly approaching. The next developments will determine the overall situation of BTC at this critical price level—and may reshape the market landscape.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
