Last week (June 11 - June 16), the market experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions, with BTC showing resilience after a rapid rebound following a decline. From June 12 to 13, as the situation in the Middle East escalated and uncertainty around Trump's tariff policies increased, market risk aversion heightened, causing BTC to drop to a low of $102,664.31, with a maximum weekly decline of 7%. However, BTC quickly rebounded, fluctuating back in the $104,000 - $105,000 range. On the 16th, driven by positive market news and continued inflows into BTC spot ETFs, BTC peaked at $107,715 and is currently stabilizing around $106,615. ETH's overall trend remained in sync with BTC, with a maximum volatility of 15.35% during the week, and the current price is approximately $2,576 (Binance, June 17, 15:20).

Last week, the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict led to a decline of over 1% in all three major U.S. stock indices. This Monday, the situation eased, and U.S. stocks rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising 1.52% and the S&P 500 returning above 6,000 points.

Market Interpretation

U.S. May CPI Falls, Rate Cut Expectations Rise

The U.S. May CPI was below market expectations, with core inflation indicators slowing for four consecutive months. The CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI monthly rate was only 0.1%, both below expectations, indicating a weakening of inflation stickiness. Following the data release, S&P 500 futures turned positive, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.1%, with the market raising the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 85%. Although the annualized core CPI remains above the 2% target, the short-term decline in food prices and the yet-to-be-seen impact of tariffs leave room for the Fed's easing policy. Future decisions may rely more on core PCE data. Trump publicly called for a rate cut, further strengthening market easing expectations. Overall, macroeconomic signals are leaning optimistic, with short-term risk appetite rebounding.

Middle East Situation Escalates, Global Risk Aversion Rises, Crypto Market Under Short-term Pressure

In mid-June, the intelligence war between Israel and Iran escalated, leading to large-scale airstrikes and a sharp increase in geopolitical risks. Gold broke through $3,400, and oil rose to around $90, putting pressure on global stock markets. The crypto market also fell in tandem, with BTC dropping to around $103,000 on June 13, a 24-hour decline of 3.5%; ETH fell over 8%, SOL nearly 9.5%, and the CD20 index dropped 6.1%. The main reasons were the flow of risk-averse funds into gold and the dollar, a decline in local demand in Iran, and the sell-off of high-volatility assets. However, by this Monday, the market had largely digested the impact of the geopolitical conflict, with BTC and ETH showing strong resilience and rebounding quickly. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.94% and 1.5%, respectively, while gold fell 1.5%. Market attention is gradually shifting towards the FOMC meeting and developments in the crypto market.

Advancement of the "GENIUS Act," Stablecoin Regulation Enters a New Phase

Last week, the U.S. Senate supported the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" with a vote of 68 to 30 to enter full chamber debate, marking a substantial advancement in stablecoin regulation. The bill establishes a compliance framework for dollar-pegged payment stablecoins and clarifies their legal status, receiving broad bipartisan support. Supporters believe this framework will enhance transparency and promote the use of stablecoins in payments, while opponents worry that high thresholds may limit innovation and squeeze smaller issuers. If passed smoothly, mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT are expected to benefit directly, potentially leading to further market consolidation, and the legislative progress will also influence global digital asset regulatory directions.

U.S. Senate Advances the "GENIUS Act," Milestone for Stablecoin Regulation

Last week, the U.S. Senate supported the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" with a vote of 68 to 30 to enter full chamber debate, marking a significant advancement in stablecoin regulation. The bill establishes a compliance framework for dollar-pegged payment stablecoins, clarifying their legal status and achieving rare bipartisan consensus. Supporters believe the GENIUS framework will enhance market transparency and promote the application of stablecoins in payments. Opponents worry that high thresholds may limit innovation and squeeze smaller issuers. If passed smoothly, mainstream stablecoins like USDC and USDT will benefit directly, potentially accelerating market consolidation. Legislative progress will also influence the global regulatory path for digital assets.

Market Highlights

Preliminary U.S.-China Trade Agreement Reached, Rare Earths and Tariffs Become Focus of Negotiation

Last week, the U.S. and China reached a preliminary trade agreement, primarily involving China's commitment to supply rare earth materials to the U.S. to alleviate pressure on American industrial supply chains, in exchange for the U.S. setting export tariffs to China at 55% (China's tariff to the U.S. is 10%). Although the tariffs are lower than previously expected, they remain above historical averages, putting pressure on both economies. Overall, the brief easing has not changed the overarching theme of high-risk negotiation and uncertainty.

JPMorgan Expands into Crypto Payments, "JPMD" Trademark Sparks Stablecoin Innovation Expectations

JPMorgan recently applied for the "JPMD" trademark in the U.S., covering various crypto services including digital asset trading, payments, and clearing, potentially paving the way for its own stablecoin and blockchain financial applications. Previous reports indicated that JPMorgan and several major banks are researching a joint launch of a dollar stablecoin to accelerate cross-border and everyday payment efficiency. Currently, JPM Coin has processed over $15 trillion in interbank blockchain payments.

Trump Media Approved for $2.3 Billion BTC Reserve, Personal Annual Crypto Income of $57.35 Million

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) was approved by the SEC this week for $2.3 billion in financing, planning to allocate most of the funds to BTC, aiming to become the third-largest corporate BTC holder globally. At the same time, it was disclosed that Trump earned $57.35 million through his family crypto platform in 2024, surpassing his traditional business income. The company positions BTC as a "core financial asset," strengthening its asset structure. Despite the company's active promotion of its crypto strategy, DJT's stock price has fallen 42% this year, with revenues far below losses, raising market doubts about its profit model and valuation. Industry analysis points out that the trend of public companies allocating BTC is accelerating, and the related volatility and risks deserve continued attention.

Circle's Stock Soars Nearly 390% in Ten Days, Stablecoin Leader Leads Industry Mainstreaming

Global leading stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) went public on the NYSE on June 5, becoming the first stablecoin company to successfully IPO. On its first day of trading, Circle's stock price rose 168%, closing with a market capitalization exceeding $21 billion. As of now, Circle's stock has accumulated a nearly 390% increase over ten days, with the latest market capitalization approaching $36.7 billion. As the "first stock of stablecoins," Circle has completed compliant listing ahead of others, marking a significant event for the legalization and capitalization of the industry.

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