BIT

This article summarizes the key topics of this consultation, recent signals of capital games in the market, and the mapping of potential beneficiary sectors such as AI computing power chains, semiconductors, and innovative drugs.

Looking ahead to next week's CPI announcement, the marginal upward risk of energy prices on the August CPI has not actually been alleviated. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz fluctuates or even impacts shipping traffic, imported inflationary pressures may become more pronounced.

Last night, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chose to bypass the congressional deadlock and took proactive measures. On September 17, it announced the "Innovation Exemption" policy, directly opening a 5-year compliance trial window for on-chain trading of tokenized U.S. stocks.

The neighboring Bank of Japan is also ready to act, with the market pricing in a nearly 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike to 1.25% next week. From Frankfurt to Washington to Tokyo, major central banks around the world are rarely aligned in the same tightening direction.

Based on the official dot plot benchmark released by the Federal Reserve on June 17, there are three key things to understand tonight.

In the short term, looking at the investment in computing power, has AI capital expenditure slowed down? Currently, it is the earnings report season, and the latest data shows that the combined capital expenditure guidance of major AI giants and Oracle has not been revised downwards, but instead has set a new record for orders. We will have to wait until the next quarter's guidance update; if it continues to remain high, then the statement about slowing down the development of AI will no longer exist.

Every new product upgrade may change the demand for certain aspects. The Apple launch event is not only a product launch but may also serve as a "report card" for the industry chain.

If the authorities intervene in the market again after September 18, observe the speed of the market's pullback—if it quickly falls back to the pre-intervention range within a few days or weeks, it indicates that the policy signal itself is still insufficient to reverse the fundamental pricing, and the yen is likely to continue to cycle through "intervention, rebound, pullback."

AI has shifted the valuation anchor of software companies from "revenue growth" to "capital efficiency," while pushing value to both ends of the industry chain: one end is the infrastructure layer that truly absorbs capital expenditure, and the other end is the workflow layer that cannot be replaced after the model. The portion in the middle, which relies solely on the number of seats and subscription price growth, is seeing its bargaining power weakened.

Looking at history, every time the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls below 5%, the "dormant period" shows polarization: either it recovers in a short time of 5 to 10 months (about 110 to 220 trading days), or it sinks for over 1,000 trading days. The former is merely a daily fluctuation of interest rates, while the latter signifies the formation of an entire low interest rate environment.