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Analysis: Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to a year-to-date low, but the options market is wary of the risk of a pullback

Bitcoin's recent volatility has nearly disappeared, but market risks have not been alleviated. Data shows that there has been no outflow of funds from the spot Bitcoin ETF, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $754 million. However, the price of Bitcoin remains around $64,700, while the options market is focused on downside protection near $62,000 and $63,000.Market signals are showing divergence: on one hand, demand for spot ETFs is rebounding; on the other hand, derivatives traders are positioning themselves for a potential pullback, especially on the eve of the release of the latest U.S. employment data. However, from the overall position structure, the market still leans bullish. Bitcoin call options account for about 60.7% of total open contracts, indicating that investors' long-term expectations remain positive, although recent trading has been more concentrated on short-term risk hedging. Meanwhile, the cost of volatility protection is at a low level. The DVOL index from Deribit, which reflects the expected volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, is currently around 35, a significant drop from the high of 90 earlier this year, indicating that the market believes the likelihood of significant volatility in the short term is limited.However, U.S. macro data could disrupt this balance. The market expects that non-farm payrolls in the U.S. will increase by about 97,500 in July, up from 57,000 in June, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. If the employment data is stronger than expected, it could push U.S. Treasury yields higher and strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes; if the data is weak, it could lower yields but also exacerbate concerns about slowing economic growth. Currently, the Bitcoin market shows a pattern of "ETF funds supporting spot, options market guarding against declines," and potential risks in a low-volatility environment still need to be monitored. In a market with low participation and insufficient liquidity, even small changes in supply or demand could lead to significant price fluctuations.

Duan Yongping responds to reducing holdings in Pop Mart: only because of the expiration of put options

Duan Yongping responded on Xueqiu today regarding the reduction of his position in Pop Mart, stating, "It's just that the put expired, and part was called away by the call." (This means that the put option expired, and a portion of the stock was called away by the call option.)ChainCatcher previously reported that earlier today, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed that the long position ratio of H&H International Investment, managed by Duan Yongping, in Pop Mart International Group Limited decreased from 7.65% to 5.55% as of July 30, 2026.According to a detailed interpretation of the announcement, this reduction was caused by the exercise of sold calls (call options). Duan Yongping holds the underlying stock of Pop Mart through H&H International Investment while selling call options to earn premiums. After part of the calls expired and were exercised on July 30, Duan Yongping had to deliver stocks at the agreed price, resulting in a decrease in physical holdings, and the disclosed long position ratio dropped from 7.65% to 5.55%.This time, Duan Yongping had part of the calls expire and be exercised, delivering some stocks at an average settlement price of approximately HKD 162.50, resulting in a net decrease of about 8.9328 million shares in physical holdings. Additionally, other option positions expiring or converting contributed to the overall decrease in the disclosed total long position ratio.Duan Yongping is accustomed to using sold options to enhance returns or build positions, and he has performed similar operations on stocks like Apple. On July 23, Duan Yongping had just responded to investors on Xueqiu, stating, "I just started buying Pop Mart, and I probably won't sell for the next 10 years." This decrease in ratio is mainly due to passive reduction caused by option settlements, rather than actively selling in the market. The actual decrease in physical holdings is not as exaggerated as the disclosed ratio suggests, as the disclosed long ratio also includes the impact of related derivative positions.

Duan Yongping's reduction of holdings in Pop Mart is not an active sell-off; this reduction is a passive exercise of subscription options

Earlier today, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed that the long position ratio of H&H International Investment, managed by Duan Yongping, in Pop Mart International Group Limited decreased from 7.65% to 5.55% as of July 30, 2026.According to the detailed interpretation of the announcement, this reduction was caused by the exercise of sold call options. Duan Yongping holds the underlying shares of Pop Mart through H&H International Investment while selling call options to earn premiums. After some calls expired and were exercised on July 30, Duan Yongping had to deliver shares at the agreed price, resulting in a decrease in physical holdings, and the disclosed long position ratio fell from 7.65% to 5.55%.This time, Duan Yongping had some calls expire and be exercised, delivering part of the shares at an average settlement price of approximately HKD 162.50, resulting in a net decrease of about 8.9328 million shares in physical holdings. Additionally, the expiration or conversion of other option positions contributed to the overall decline in the disclosed total long position ratio.Duan Yongping is accustomed to using sold options to enhance returns or build positions, and he has previously engaged in similar operations with stocks like Apple. On July 23, Duan Yongping had just responded to investors on Xueqiu, stating, "Pop Mart has just started buying, and it is highly likely that I won't sell within the next 10 years." The decrease in ratio this time is mainly due to passive reduction caused by option settlements, rather than actively selling in the market. The actual decrease in physical holdings is also not as exaggerated as the disclosed ratio suggests, as the disclosed long position ratio also includes the impact of related derivative positions.
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