options

On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.8 billion in nominal value of Bitcoin options will expire on December 26, covering quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of structured products. This means that the BTC derivatives market will face a "concentration of risk exposure liquidation and repricing" at the end of the year, with prices potentially constrained by structural factors before expiration, but uncertainty actually increasing afterward.From the data, there is a significant accumulation of open interest (OI) at the two closest positions to the current BTC spot price: 14,674 BTC for the $85,000 Put; and 18,116 BTC for the $100,000 Call. In terms of scale, this is not retail behavior, but rather large-scale long-term capital, most likely from ETF hedging positions, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, and other institutions that hold substantial amounts of BTC spot.The Put at the $85,000 strike price indicates that buyers are the "active party," reflecting a strong demand for downside risk hedging at this price level. Similarly, the large accumulation of Call OI at the $100,000 strike price essentially does not mean "the market is bullish up to here," but rather that long-term capital is willing to cede upside potential above this level in exchange for current certainty in cash flow and overall manageable risk.By buying Puts below and selling Calls above, the distribution of BTC returns is compressed within a bearable range. Given that OI has already formed significantly, this $85,000--$100,000 options corridor will create a structural impact on BTC prices before December 26, characterized by "implicit pressure above, passive buffering below, and volatility in the middle range."

According to CoinTelegraph, market analyst Jeff Park stated that long-term investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin ("whales" or "OGs") are pressuring the Bitcoin spot price downward by selling covered call options, introducing disproportionate selling pressure.This means that market makers must hedge the risk exposure of buying call options by selling spot Bitcoin, which forces the market price to drop, even though traditional ETF investors have strong demand.Note: Selling call options gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase the asset at a predetermined price in the future, while the seller collects the option premium.

Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI) has been approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and has officially entered the prediction market space.Gemini announced that its new platform, Gemini Titan, will initially launch with classic binary event contracts, which allow "yes/no bets on future events." Gemini stated that Titan is expected to further expand into other CFTC-regulated derivatives markets, including crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts. Public information shows that Gemini initially submitted its DCM license application on March 10, 2020, but did not disclose details of its plans to build a prediction market at that time. DCM is the regulatory framework for conventional derivatives trading markets under the CFTC, applicable to the vast majority of regulated trading platforms. The prediction market space is currently experiencing rapid growth. Kalshi and Polymarket saw rapid expansion during last year's U.S. election cycle and further accelerated after Trump's inauguration. According to market news, both recorded their best trading volumes in history in October and November of this year, with December also expected to continue strong performance.

According to The Block, the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Space Station, Inc. (stock code GEMI) has been approved to enter the prediction market space, receiving approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a designated contract market (DCM).Gemini stated in a press release that its prediction platform, named "Gemini Titan," will initially offer classic binary event contracts, which pose simple "yes or no" questions about future events. In the future, the platform may expand to other derivatives markets under CFTC regulation, such as cryptocurrency futures, options, and perpetual contracts.

According to market news, the largest BTC block options trade today involved a user buying 90,000 USD put options expiring at the end of January and selling 90,000 USD put options expiring at the end of February, with 375 BTC on each side. This user is betting that BTC will drop by the end of January and then rise above 90,000 USD in February.Currently, the market's positive sentiment has mostly dissipated, and some users are betting on a decline due to the risk of being removed from the index components at the beginning of January. However, there is also a clear optimism for a market recovery after February.

According to Cointelegraph, global asset management company WisdomTree has launched a new type of digital asset fund------WisdomTree Equity Premium Income Digital Fund (token code EPXC, fund code WTPIX). The fund tracks the price and performance of the Volos U.S. Large Cap Target 2.5% PutWrite Index, bringing traditional options strategies into the blockchain, highlighting the trend of integration between traditional asset management and blockchain financial infrastructure.Its benchmark index simulates a systematic "sell option" strategy, profiting by selling cash-secured put options, and does not directly trade against the S&P 500 index, but instead uses contracts linked to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust to act as an option seller earning option premiums. The EPXC fund is open to institutional and retail investors. Since the fund has achieved tokenization, crypto-native users can also invest.

Glassnode's latest weekly report points out that the current market conditions bear similarities to the early stages of the 2022 bear market (also known as the crypto winter). ETF demand continues to weaken, with IBIT experiencing outflows for the sixth consecutive week, setting a record for the longest streak of negative flows since its launch in January 2024, with total redemptions exceeding $2.7 billion over the past five weeks.Derivatives data further confirms the decline in risk appetite. Open interest continues to decrease, indicating a reduced willingness to bear market risk, especially following the liquidation flash crash event on October 10. The perpetual contract funding rate remains largely neutral, only briefly dipping into negative territory, while the funding premium has also significantly retreated, suggesting a more balanced market environment with reduced speculation.Sentiment in the options market is cautious, with investors more inclined to sell rather than chase upward potential. Earlier this week, as Bitcoin's price approached $80,000, put option buying dominated, but as the price stabilized subsequently, investor panic subsided, and funds flowed into call options.

According to CoinDesk, the trading volume of options linked to the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has surged, with a total of 7,714,246 IBIT options contracts active or outstanding as of Tuesday.According to data from optioncharts.io, the outstanding contract volume of IBIT options ranks ninth among options linked to U.S. listed stocks, ETFs, and indices; in terms of stock options alone, IBIT options rank second.The report states that IBIT options have surpassed gold ETFs and major tech stocks, highlighting the growing appeal of Bitcoin as a macro asset. Despite the decline in Bitcoin prices, the trading activity of IBIT options is higher than that of options related to the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, which has risen 50% this year.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted on the X platform that currently, ETH unstaking takes a long time, and some protocols may require several weeks. Coinbase has developed a solution with three options available:Join the standard ETH unstaking queue, similar to on-chain stakers, with a maximum wait time of 38 days;Wrap staked ETH into cbETH, which has a liquidity market;Unstake immediately to access ETH assets right away, but a 1% fee on the unstaked amount will apply.

According to Bloomberg, trading in futures and options at CME Group was suspended due to a data center failure, affecting markets worth trillions of dollars in contracts, including S&P 500 index futures, U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, gasoline, and palm oil.The forex platform EBS resumed service at 12 PM London time after several hours of downtime. In Singapore, oil traders indicated that CME is a key component of the global market mechanism. Gerald Gan, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Reed Capital Partners in Singapore, pointed out that the outage is "very frustrating" and noted that the liquidity of alternative platforms may not be as sufficient as that of CME.Amelie Derambure, a portfolio manager at Amundi SA, stated that fortunately, Friday was a light trading day; otherwise, it would have been a "considerable obstacle." The outage occurred the day after Thanksgiving, when U.S. markets had only a half-day of trading.Emmanuel Valavanis, a sales specialist at Forte Securities in London, remarked that having this happen on the last day of month-end and year-end trading, affecting trillions of dollars in trades, is very unfortunate. This outage has surpassed the several-hour downtime incident caused by a technical error in 2019.

The cryptocurrency market is迎来 an important options expiration day. Data shows that 143,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.51, a maximum pain point of $98,000, and a nominal value of $13 billion; 572,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.48, a maximum pain point of $3,400, and a nominal value of $1.71 billion.After a significant drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices this month, they have stabilized and rebounded towards the end of the month. Currently, BTC has firmly held the $90,000 mark, while ETH has experienced three consecutive monthly declines, fluctuating around $3,000. Market sentiment has improved significantly compared to last week. Options data shows that implied volatility has rebounded across the board compared to last month, with BTC's main term IV averaging around 45%, and ETH's main term IV below 70%, both at relatively high levels for this year. Analysts point out that due to factors such as macroeconomic uncertainty, the market performance in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be poor, with significant market divergence, and they do not recommend investors engage in leveraged operations.

According to Cointelegraph, Nasdaq has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to increase BlackRock's IBIT futures limit to 1 million contracts, which is the maximum level allowed by the regulator.

CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole pointed out that there has been a surge in hedging activity around the $80,000 put options for Bitcoin, indicating that the trading environment may be challenging in the short term.From a macro perspective, the excellent performance of the 10-year Treasury bonds, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has raised alarms for other risk assets, including stocks. However, the situation may change before the end of the year, especially if the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points early next month, signaling a clear dovish stance.

Greeks.live researcher Adam posted on social media, "In the third quarter, we observed that the options market was clearly optimistic about the fourth quarter. Even during the late August when Bitcoin prices continued to decline, the open interest for Q4 options remained bullish. We referred to it as the Q4 rally or Christmas rally at that time; however, the crash on October 11 and the continued decline in November have shattered the previous market structure. In the current market context, the voices calling for new highs in the fourth quarter have completely disappeared, and a pessimistic atmosphere is spreading.Although this week RV, IV, and 25D Skew have shown a downward trend, the market's panic has not dissipated, and the mid to long-term options data for the end of the year and into next year still points to bearishness. With the monthly expiration approaching, there has been significant price volatility this month, leading to strong demand from whales for rolling positions.From the overall data, a short-term bottom has formed, and the options market's preference for the recent continuous decline has weakened, indicating a larger expectation for short-term market fluctuations. However, the market in the last month of this year remains dangerous, and volatility expectations are still high."

According to a report by CoinDesk, on Monday a trader opened a "bullish eagle" option on Deribit with a notional value of 20,000 bitcoins (1.76 billion USD), establishing a net position that allows them to profit if the price of bitcoin closes between 106,000 and 112,000 USD by the end of the year. This means the trader expects bitcoin's price to continue rebounding before the end of the year, breaking through the 100,000 USD mark, but not reaching a new high.The report states that bitcoin has rebounded from a low of nearly 80,000 USD last week to about 88,000 USD. Although this rebound is mainly driven by the market's renewed expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, institutional buying in spot ETFs has not yet seen a recovery. According to SoSoValue data, on Monday, 11 spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of 151 million USD.

Matrixport released a chart today stating, "In the past week, the implied volatility skew of Bitcoin options has further weakened. The short-term skew widened from about -3.5% last week to -10.6%, indicating a significant increase in short-term downside hedging demand; the long-end skew decreased from about -0.2% to -1.9%, reflecting a more pessimistic pricing of longer-term tail risks. From the perspective of option pricing, the market's pricing of downside risks has increased over the past week, evident in both short-term options and contracts expiring next year. The current implied volatility has risen to about 58%, corresponding to a higher near-term downside risk premium and a more cautious medium-term outlook compared to a week ago, indicating that the market does not view this round of volatility as a one-off shock."