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BTC $66,304.02 -0.79%
ETH $1,993.87 -1.23%
BNB $608.65 -1.21%
XRP $1.42 -4.56%
SOL $81.67 -4.53%
TRX $0.2795 -0.47%
DOGE $0.0974 -3.83%
ADA $0.2735 -4.22%
BCH $453.91 -5.90%
LINK $8.64 -2.97%
HYPE $28.98 -1.81%
AAVE $122.61 -3.42%
SUI $0.8387 -4.97%
XLM $0.1605 -4.62%
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options

Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum options with a nominal value of 1.97 billion dollars are set to expire today

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X that today 23,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point of $70,000, and a nominal value of $1.6 billion. 176,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.04, a maximum pain point of $2,150, and a nominal value of $370 million.The current rebound in the crypto market has been declared over, with Bitcoin briefly falling below the $70,000 threshold. In the past week, $75,000 has often been mentioned as a key resistance level, with 5% of options expiring at this price by the end of the month. The final breakthrough failed, falling back to around $70,000. Next Friday is the quarterly settlement, and from the options market data, $75,000 is the price with the most concentrated positions, making it an absolute resistance level. The lower levels of $65,000/$62,000/$60,000 are all areas of dense positions and can be considered as support for a decline.This week, the implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV) of major expiration options have remained basically unchanged, with the main expiration IV for BTC at 50% and for ETH at 70%. The RV continues to decline, causing the volatility risk premium (VRP) to rise continuously. Only options accounting for 5% of the total positions are expiring, continuing to hit record lows. Despite the volatility, Bitcoin's trading activity remains at extremely low levels. Due to the price decline, the skew has decreased across the board, and the market is still in a bear phase, with bullish forces being very weak.

The $20,000 Bitcoin put option has become the third most popular strike price before the quarterly expiration

According to CoinDesk, before the expiration of Deribit Bitcoin quarterly options, the $20,000 put options have become the third most popular strike price, with a nominal value of approximately $596 million, reflecting traders' positioning for extreme downside scenarios amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.In terms of open interest distribution, the three main strike prices are: $125,000 call options ($740 million), $75,000 ($687 million), and $20,000 put options ($596 million), showing a wide distribution of expectations for both upward and downward movements. The total nominal value of this Deribit Bitcoin options expiration is $13.5 billion, with a total open interest of 195,719 BTC, including 120,236 BTC in call contracts and 75,482 BTC in put contracts.With the current BTC price below $70,000, the $20,000 strike price is considered deeply out-of-the-money, only profitable if the market drops more than 70% from the current price. A significant amount of such activity is likely traders collecting premiums by selling these deeply out-of-the-money put options, reflecting a low probability expectation of a drop to $20,000, rather than directly hedging against crash risks— in other words, this is more of a yield enhancement or volatility strategy rather than a direct bearish bet.Overall sentiment indicates that despite the market being in extreme fear, the put/call ratio in the options market remains at 0.63, meaning there are more call options than put options, and the overall sentiment is still slightly bullish. The maximum pain point is at $75,000, which may create a magnetic effect on Bitcoin prices before expiration.
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