altcoins

Bitcoin has risen about 24% in the past week, approaching $79,000, marking its best performance of 2023. Ethereum has increased about 30% during the same period, surpassing $2,500, but the Total3 index, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, fell back after a morning surge, currently around $753 billion, recording a decline over the week.Bitcoin's dominance briefly rose to about 61% this week before falling back to around 59%, close to its yearly high. The CoinMarketCap altcoin season index is at 46, far below the 75 threshold that defines altcoin season, indicating that most altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days.This round of market activity is mainly driven by the U.S. Treasury's announcement to double the long-term bond repurchase scale from $2 billion to $4 billion, with a weaker dollar prompting funds to flow into Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. Trump subsequently met with crypto executives at the White House and pushed Congress to pass the Clarity Act. After Bitcoin broke through $70,000, it triggered a short squeeze, with Bitget Wallet research analysts estimating that over $4 billion in crypto shorts were liquidated within two to three days. If it continues to break through $80,000, it may open the way to $82,000 to $87,000.

According to analysis by Glassnode, the current altcoin market has entered an optimistic state, with approximately 85% of altcoin funding rates rising above their respective averages, marking the highest level for this metric since BTC was at historical highs.During the altcoin season, a similar funding rate environment may persist for several weeks.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on the X platform, stating that there are clear signs of recovery in the altcoin market recently, and the market structure is changing. The "altcoin season" may have entered an early stage. Data shows that the total market capitalization of altcoins increased by about $215 billion in just three days, with a rise of over 24%, pushing the total market capitalization of altcoins back above $1 trillion. Darkfost pointed out that in this round of increase, small and medium-cap altcoins performed the strongest. Due to their lower circulating market capitalization, these assets are more sensitive to capital inflows and also have higher bidirectional volatility risks.From the data on the Binance platform, the signals of recovery in the altcoin market have further strengthened. Since November last year, about 80% to 85% of altcoins have been below the 200-day moving average (200-DMA), while currently, 56% of the altcoins listed on Binance have regained this key technical indicator, indicating that the market may be entering a new cyclical phase. Darkfost believes that this trend reversal is related to several positive signals for cryptocurrencies recently released by Trump. Trump stated that the U.S. will "massively purchase Bitcoin" and urged Congress to push the passage of the CLARITY Act, while also claiming that his administration has ended the previous unfriendly policies towards the cryptocurrency industry.Related remarks have boosted market sentiment, and against a backdrop of low trading volume and reduced selling pressure, a large amount of capital has begun to flow into the altcoin market, driving multiple sectors to rise simultaneously. Darkfost stated that based on historical experience, the current widespread increase in altcoins is usually seen as an important signal for the early start of altcoin season. However, he also warned that the market has entered an overbought area in the short term, and investors should be cautious of a phase adjustment. If the overall upward momentum continues, new investment opportunities may still arise.

According to Gate market data, as Bitcoin fell below $77,000, the crypto market experienced a pullback, with altcoins generally under pressure and declining. Among them:TAC is currently priced at $0.001672, down 40.86% in 24 hours;FHE is currently priced at $0.01978, down 30.03% in 24 hours;SQD is currently priced at $0.03, down 29.01% in 24 hours;PTB is currently priced at $0.0007364, down 27.11% in 24 hours;INX is currently priced at $0.006619, down 26.43% in 24 hours;BASED is currently priced at $0.07328, down 25.35% in 24 hours;SWARMS is currently priced at $0.007254, down 24.80% in 24 hours;BEAT is currently priced at $0.1342, down 24.18% in 24 hours.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that about 84% of altcoin trading prices on Binance have fallen below the 200-day moving average, a situation that has persisted for nearly eight months, marking the second longest period of weakness since 2020, only behind the previous bear market's record of about ten months.The Total 3 index, which tracks the market capitalization of altcoins excluding Ethereum, continues to decline and has confirmed a weekly close below the 200-day moving average. Darkfost pointed out that altcoins have maintained a high correlation with Bitcoin prices during this cycle. Although the current weakness confirms a downward trend, historically, such periods usually provide mid-term opportunities, but this time requires stricter asset screening than before.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, the Hyperliquid whale, which previously shorted 16 altcoins for a profit of 13.68 million dollars, is suspected of selling ETH again. Four hours ago, it deposited 6,860 ETH (10.8 million dollars) to Binance, with a deposit price of 1,574 dollars. If sold, it would incur a loss of 2.86 million dollars (having accumulated at an average price of 1,991 dollars in February and March this year). Since June 24, it has transferred a total of 21.82 million dollars worth of ETH to exchanges, expecting a loss of 5.485 million dollars.

According to a report released by the data analysis platform Glassnode (@glassnode), although the BTC price is still far below its historical high, traders on the Hyperliquid platform are continuously increasing their long positions, with a buy-the-dip sentiment prevailing throughout the downward trend, and the potential for market short squeezes is continuously accumulating.Meanwhile, the altcoin cycle signal has returned to "altcoin season," and the selling pressure on altcoins is tending to exhaust, but BTC is still under downward pressure, and the current market trend is still dominated by BTC movements.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the phenomenon of Bitcoin driving funds into altcoins, which once boosted altcoin markets, has basically disappeared. He pointed out that since 2021, the trading volume of altcoins paired with BTC has significantly shrunk, and the market structure has undergone noticeable changes. Ki Young Ju believes that the era of "Bitcoin rising leading to a general rise in altcoins" may have ended, and in the future, altcoins may rely more on their own fundamentals, application scenarios, and independent capital inflows to drive price increases.

CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech analysis states that the selling pressure of altcoins on spot exchanges has reached extreme levels not seen in five years, with the spot market experiencing net selling for 15 consecutive months. The cumulative trading volume of altcoins, excluding BTC and ETH, has recorded the lowest negative value since data tracking began in 2020; this indicator was close to neutral in early 2025, but then turned significantly negative again and has continued to decline since.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated, "Altcoins have not died, but purely narrative altcoins are dead." The era where one could make money simply by issuing a token is no longer. He believes that the altcoins that can survive and are worth paying attention to in the future can be divided into the following three main camps: first, global internet companies with tokenized market layers, where in some cases issuing tokens is more pragmatic than tokenized equity listings, such as BNB and GRAM (TON); second, DeFi services with real revenue, such as Hyperliquid and high-quality DeFi protocols; third, projects that align with broader financial trends. Ki Young Ju concluded that just as true IT giants emerged after the internet bubble, real crypto enterprises will also emerge after this cycle.

Strategy founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor recently stated that the current cryptocurrency market is in fierce competition, with ongoing struggles between Ethereum, Solana, and BNB. Sui was once seen as the "next Solana," but that narrative has collapsed, and now the market is starting to focus on Hyperliquid.Meanwhile, in the Layer 2 space, projects like Arbitrum and Base are also in intense competition. All this competition has weakened the "currency premium" that these cryptocurrencies were originally assigned.Saylor believes that even the most steadfast supporters of these tokens are beginning to realize that they are not currencies and will not gain the premium associated with currency attributes; future value will depend on actual utility.The past 12 months have been an extremely favorable period for Bitcoin, further solidifying its position as the dominant digital currency network. The market has established Bitcoin as "digital capital" and has proven that the concept of "digital credit" is viable.

As market risk appetite rebounds, altcoins have recently outperformed Bitcoin overall, with the Hyperliquid ecosystem token HYPE leading the 24-hour gains. Data shows that funds are shifting from Bitcoin and Ethereum to high-volatility assets, driving up certain DeFi and trading platform-related tokens. Analysts point out that improved risk sentiment among traders and active derivatives markets are important reasons for the recent outperformance of altcoins against BTC.

JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although the overall cryptocurrency market has recovered after the Iran conflict, Ethereum and other altcoins continue to underperform compared to Bitcoin. The analyst team led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that this trend, which began in 2023, "is unlikely to change unless we see meaningful improvements in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications."The analysts noted that since the conflict triggered a market sell-off, Bitcoin's recovery in spot ETF fund flows and institutional futures positions has outperformed Ethereum. The spot Bitcoin ETF has recovered about two-thirds of the previous outflows, while the spot Ethereum ETF has only recovered about one-third. CME futures positions also indicate that institutional investors are rebuilding their Bitcoin exposure more aggressively than Ethereum.Regarding the upcoming Ethereum upgrades (Glamsterdam and Hegota), analysts questioned whether they would be sufficient to improve ETH's relative performance. Upgrades over the past three years have primarily reduced Layer 2 transaction costs, which has weakened the Ethereum network's fee generation and token burn mechanisms, leading to an accelerated net supply growth and weakened price support. Whether the new upgrades can generate enough new demand and network activity remains to be seen.For altcoins, analysts believe that since 2023, weak liquidity conditions, low market depth and breadth, limited growth in DeFi activity, and recurring hacking and security incidents have collectively eroded market confidence and hindered the deployment of new capital.

According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts have stated that despite the overall recovery of the cryptocurrency market following the Iran conflict, Ethereum and altcoins continue to underperform Bitcoin. The analysts believe that unless there is a substantial improvement in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications, this trend that began in 2023 is unlikely to change.The analysts pointed out that the spot Bitcoin ETF has recovered about two-thirds of the previously withdrawn funds, while the spot Ethereum ETF has only recovered about one-third. CME futures positions indicate that institutions are rebuilding their Bitcoin exposure more aggressively than Ethereum, with Bitcoin futures positions nearly fully restored, while Ethereum futures positions remain below previous levels.The analysts also questioned whether the upcoming Ethereum upgrade could effectively boost network activity. They noted that upgrades over the past three years have primarily reduced Layer 2 transaction costs, leading to lower Ethereum network fees, a weakened token burn mechanism, and accelerated net supply growth, which has undermined ETH's price support.Regarding altcoins, the analysts pointed out that poor liquidity, insufficient market depth, limited growth in DeFi activity, and repeated hacking incidents have eroded confidence and hindered the allocation of new capital.

JPMorgan analysts stated that despite the overall recovery of the cryptocurrency market after the Iran conflict, Ethereum and other altcoins continue to underperform Bitcoin. This trend, which has formed since 2023, may be difficult to reverse in the short term unless there is a significant improvement in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications.The report pointed out that, based on spot ETF fund flows and institutional futures positions, the recovery of Bitcoin is stronger than that of Ethereum. The spot Bitcoin ETF has recovered about two-thirds of the previous outflows, while the spot Ethereum ETF has only recovered about one-third. At the same time, CME futures data shows that institutional investors are more actively rebuilding their exposure to Bitcoin, with Bitcoin futures positions nearly fully restored, while Ethereum futures positions remain below previous levels.JPMorgan believes that the relative weakness of ETH and altcoins against Bitcoin may continue due to the lack of stronger on-chain fundamentals and real-world application support.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that despite the challenges posed by the US-Iran conflict and inflationary pressures on the market, there have been recent signs of recovery in the altcoin market. He pointed out that after experiencing an overall correction of over 50%, the altcoin sector is gradually regaining activity. This round of adjustment is influenced not only by the BTC correction but also by the dilution of market tokens. Currently, there are approximately 51 million altcoins in the market, with 46% deployed on Solana, 36% on Base, and 10% from the BSC chain.He noted that the overall performance of altcoins listed on Binance has returned to levels seen since September 2025. Currently, about 21% of altcoins listed on Binance have regained their position above the 200-day moving average, while only 2% of tokens maintained above this key technical level in February of this year.Darkfost believes this indicates that market interest in altcoins is gradually rising, which is an important signal for investors looking to allocate to altcoins. However, he also emphasized that it is still too early to determine if the "altcoin season" has begun, as market liquidity remains limited.

According to The Block, Bitcoin's market share has rebounded from a low of 55% to about 58.5%. This metric has historically been a barometer for capital rotation within the crypto market: an increase in market share typically accompanies a consolidation phase where Bitcoin outperforms altcoins, while a decrease often signals the arrival of altcoin season.In mid-2025, Bitcoin's market share peaked between 62% and 63%, then continued to decline to about 54%. The current rise to 58% suggests that the market may be in a consolidation phase rather than a full shift towards altcoins.Bitcoin's price has rebounded from a low of around $63,000 in February to about $80,000. Over the past month, TON, ZEC, and DOGE have performed relatively strongly, a pattern that previously indicated altcoin expansion when Bitcoin's market share began to decline. The key question is whether Bitcoin's market share is consolidating at the current level or continuing to decline.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, an account that shorted a basket of altcoins has achieved a total profit of 86.36 million dollars, with current unrealized losses of 4.06 million dollars on 29 short positions; the shorting includes 28 altcoins such as ZEC, TON, NEAR, LIT, and CL crude oil, with a total position value of 47.66 million dollars, and is still continuing to increase its position.

Arthur Hayes stated at the Consensus Miami 2026 event that 99% of altcoins may drop to 0, which is a normal market cleansing. Since 1929, about 98% of companies in the S&P 500 index have gone to zero, and most stocks are also altcoins in the long run. The speed of the cryptocurrency collapse is faster due to 24/7 trading and lack of restrictions. It is suggested to view tokens as software, and most software projects fail due to inability to gain users, which is a common business norm.The price and future value of Bitcoin depend on the total amount of fiat currency and the speed at which fiat currency is created, unrelated to politics or regulation. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is about $82,000, and its utility lies in allowing users to transfer value outside of the traditional financial system. Centralized crypto companies seek regulation to protect their businesses, but this will not affect the validity of Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.