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CryproQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on social media, "Once profit-taking begins to form a chain reaction, Bitcoin investors' profit and loss levels (PnL) typically continue to decline for about 18 months. Since this trend reversed in October 2025, the current bear market may last until early 2027.The trend will only truly reverse when unrealized profits start to rise again and realized profits begin to decline. However, at present, we have not seen this situation occur."

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that the accumulation of Bitcoin whales (wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins, excluding exchanges and mining pools) and dolphins (wallets holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins, primarily dominated by ETFs and corporate treasury companies) has stagnated, with demand continuing to weaken. The year-on-year contraction rate of whale balances is the fastest this year, while the annual growth rate of dolphin balances, although still positive, has significantly slowed, and the monthly growth rates for both are approaching zero, indicating that the structural demand engine is in a state of ongoing slowdown.Although the supply of long-term holders has reached a record 15,800,000 Bitcoins, this is not a bullish signal, as short-term demand is too weak to absorb the tokens of long-term holders. The supply of short-term holders has decreased from 6,400,000 Bitcoins in December 2025 to about 4,200,000 Bitcoins, of which approximately 900,000 Bitcoins came from Coinbase exchange reserves that have been passively converted to long-term holdings due to holding periods exceeding 155 days. Moreno reiterated that the current market conditions are similar to the bear market pattern of March 2022.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out that Bitcoin's recent price trend has shown a dangerous divergence: the Taker buy volume on Binance has continued to decline, reaching a low not seen in months, indicating a significant weakening of the market's willingness to buy actively; meanwhile, the funding rate on Binance has risen back into positive territory, suggesting that traders are increasing their long positions through leverage.Historical patterns show that when the funding rate rises while spot demand simultaneously shrinks, it often signals that the market is entering a later stage of speculation—leverage-driven trends lack support from spot capital, making them structurally fragile. If buying pressure does not effectively rebound, the current high funding rate may reflect more potential risks rather than market strength.

According to on-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant (@cryptoquant_com), Bitcoin spot demand has fallen to the most bearish level of the year, and the Bitcoin capital flow ratio has also dropped to a key area that historically marks each major market turning point. Although the short-term trend is bearish, such environments have historically created better positioning opportunities for long-term investors.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has lost its structural upward momentum amid a sharp deterioration in the macro environment, which is an important signal indicating that the market is currently more in a "Risk-off" phase. Until its on-chain "Impulse" indicator returns above the zero axis, every rebound of BTC still lacks confirmation.He pointed out that the recently released fourth part of "Decision Architecture for Bitcoin" focuses on building a macro framework based on the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and VIX volatility index. The core idea is that not all macro fluctuations will disrupt on-chain structure, but when macro factors truly enter a "dominant mode," even if on-chain data is positive, the market may temporarily lose upward momentum.In addition, CryptoQuant has added a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF dashboard this week, covering data such as weekly net inflows, cumulative flow, 30-day ETF Flow Momentum, changes in demand over the past four weeks, and fund distribution among various ETFs. Currently, the 30-day ETF momentum is only $362.8 million, while this indicator reached a peak of $13.21 billion in December 2024 and fell to a low of -$5.36 billion in November 2025.Adler emphasized that the Coinbase Premium Index remains an important indicator for observing U.S. spot demand: when this index consistently stays above zero, it indicates that U.S. buying is still supporting the market; if it turns negative, even if BTC rises, its movement may lack genuine support from U.S. demand.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that since October 10 of last year, the Bitcoin derivatives market has undergone an 8-month deleveraging process, with Binance futures positions once falling below the 180-day moving average.However, this trend began to change in early May. Binance Open Interest rebounded from $6.4 billion in March to approximately $8.96 billion currently, re-establishing itself above the 180-day moving average (around $8.75 billion), marking the basic end of the deleveraging phase.Darkfost pointed out that traders re-entering the market have provided support for the current rebound, but the macro environment remains severe, and the trend is still relatively weak.

CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin's recent trend is similar to the bear market rebound phase in March 2022, with market demand still weak and sentiment indicators having fallen back into the "extremely pessimistic" range.The report pointed out that Bitcoin's recent rebound was blocked near the 200-day moving average at around $82,400, and then it fell back to around $76,000. CryptoQuant believes this trend is similar to that in March 2022: at that time, Bitcoin rebounded 43% from its low but also encountered resistance at the 200-day moving average and re-entered a downward trend.Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, stated that during a bear market, the 200-day moving average is usually a key dividing line between "rebound markets" and "trend continuation." If Bitcoin cannot effectively break through this moving average, it may indicate that the bear market structure has not yet been broken.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the participation of retail investors (holding less than 1 BTC) in the Bitcoin market is continuously declining, almost "disappearing" from on-chain active addresses. Currently, the monthly average inflow of BTC from retail investors on Binance has dropped to a historical low of only 314 BTC.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has recently attempted to break through the $82,000 level three times, but each time it faced a pullback. During each rebound, the STH-SOPR indicator rose to around 1 before weakening again, indicating that short-term holders are taking profits during the uptrend rather than continuing to hold.Currently, $82,000 is not only a key resistance level from a technical perspective but also an important selling pressure zone from a market behavior perspective, having formed a strong selling pressure area.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that despite the challenges posed by the US-Iran conflict and inflationary pressures on the market, there have been recent signs of recovery in the altcoin market. He pointed out that after experiencing an overall correction of over 50%, the altcoin sector is gradually regaining activity. This round of adjustment is influenced not only by the BTC correction but also by the dilution of market tokens. Currently, there are approximately 51 million altcoins in the market, with 46% deployed on Solana, 36% on Base, and 10% from the BSC chain.He noted that the overall performance of altcoins listed on Binance has returned to levels seen since September 2025. Currently, about 21% of altcoins listed on Binance have regained their position above the 200-day moving average, while only 2% of tokens maintained above this key technical level in February of this year.Darkfost believes this indicates that market interest in altcoins is gradually rising, which is an important signal for investors looking to allocate to altcoins. However, he also emphasized that it is still too early to determine if the "altcoin season" has begun, as market liquidity remains limited.

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has recently turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the "Early Bull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment phase has ended and the market structure begins to repair. However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for judging market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining "whether Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and real confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and prices stabilizing at key levels. Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded about 35% from a low of around $60,000 in February this year, the market remains in a tug-of-war state. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin needs to digest some current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral greed-fear index and a complex macro environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a phase of bottoming around $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive phase," targeting the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts also remind that on-chain indicators like MVRV and NUPL are essentially more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV, the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned into an "early bull market" signal for the first time since March 2023. Historically, this signal has appeared after 2019 and early 2023, indicating that the worst adjustment phase has passed and the market structure is beginning to recover. However, there was one exception in March 2022 when the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, but the price was subsequently rejected, confirming a local top rather than a new bull market.Regarding the current signal for May 2026, the analyst believes that Bitcoin is no longer behaving as a deeply bearish asset, and the recovery of the 30-day moving average indicates that market momentum is improving. However, several other market indicators have shown signs of fatigue, making this signal less clear than a classic early cycle confirmation. The analyst tends to believe that this is more likely a local top rather than the beginning of a new bull market, unless the price strongly confirms this trend in the future.

CryptoQuant analyst Oro Crypto (@oro_crypto) stated that the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR) of Bitcoin has returned to a structurally key area. This indicator has remained above 1 for 9 consecutive trading days since May 1, indicating that the market is continuously realizing profit sales.aSOPR is used to measure whether the Bitcoin being spent on-chain is in a profit or loss state. A value greater than 1 indicates that, on average, the spent BTC is being sold at a profit, while a value less than 1 indicates that it is being handled at a loss. The significance of this signal lies in its persistence; the consecutive 9-day sequence reduces noise interference and shows that a substantial change in market structure has occurred. The last similar consecutive profit sequence appeared from October 19 to November 4, 2025, during which BTC also experienced several consecutive days of on-chain profit spending.From a market structure perspective, this indicates that Bitcoin is absorbing profit-taking selling pressure, and the price structure has not immediately deteriorated, showing that the market currently exhibits sufficient absorption capacity. This reading does not necessarily mean entering a euphoric phase, but rather indicates that the market has shifted from a loss realization environment to a phase where participants are continuously realizing profits. As long as aSOPR remains above 1, the market structure remains constructive: participants are cashing in profits while the market maintains its absorption capacity. The key failure level is clear: if the indicator continues to fall below the 1 threshold, it means the market will start handling tokens at a loss again, which would weaken the current constructive signal.Bitcoin is not only being sold again at a profit, but this process is also persistent. This persistence transforms aSOPR into a constructive signal reflecting internal market improvement, marking the most significant positive sequence since October to November 2025.

According to The Block, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin has risen over 20% to a three-month high since early April, but research director Julio Moreno still views it as a "bear market rally."He pointed out that Bitcoin holders realized an average daily profit of 14,600 Bitcoins on May 4, the highest level since December 10, 2025. The spending output profit ratio for short-term holders has remained above 1 since mid-April, indicating that the market has entered a "clear profit-taking zone." Moreno noted that the 30-day rolling net profit has reached +20,000 Bitcoins, marking the first positive reading since December 22, 2025, signaling a structural turning point in bear market dynamics.However, this level is far below the typical range of 130,000 to 200,000 Bitcoins during a bull market confirmation period. The current unrealized profit margin is 18%, and historical experience suggests that high levels of unrealized profits increase the risk of a pullback. However, the demand for perpetual futures remains strong, spot demand is moderately contracting, and exchange inflows are sluggish, indicating that a pullback may take some time to materialize.

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant stated that with the recent price increase, profit-taking behavior in the Bitcoin market may further increase.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen over 20% since early April, but the firm still defines this market movement as a "bear market rally." The current profit metric for short-term holders remains above 1, indicating that the market has been in a continuous profit-taking phase since mid-April. Analysts believe that although selling pressure is rising, a price correction may still take time to manifest.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that the Bitcoin market is still dominated by the futures market, with the recent bullish momentum mainly coming from investors gradually returning to the derivatives market. Although the funding rate has remained negative for several weeks, the open interest in Bitcoin has recorded its largest increase since 2026, surpassing the increase during the historical peak period of 2025.Darkfost pointed out that while this reflects a slow return of market optimism, it has also led to a more fragile market structure, where high leverage positions can easily amplify volatility and liquidation risks.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost tweeted that Bitcoin has risen over 36% since the low on February 6. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's dominance has also increased, surpassing 61.3%, returning to the high since November 2025, indicating that funds are still highly concentrated in Bitcoin.In contrast, altcoins are still under pressure but have shown early signs of stabilization. TOTAL3 (the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH) has increased by about 15% during the same period. Among the altcoins listed on Binance, 11.7% have returned above the 200-day moving average (only 2.3% on February 6), breaking the downward trend since October 2025.Additionally, the trading volume of altcoins on Binance has risen from 31% to 49% of the total trading volume of BTC and ETH, indicating that investor interest is slowly returning.

CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno wrote in a report: "The demand for perpetual futures contracts is the only driving force behind the rise in Bitcoin prices, while the apparent demand for spot continues to shrink. This structure has historically appeared during bear markets and is often difficult to maintain an upward trend."Moreno stated that the divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand is one of the clearest signals on-chain, indicating that this rally is more speculative rather than driven by structural growth. He pointed out that this means the price increase is mainly driven by leverage rather than new inflows of Bitcoin.Moreno also said: "Historically, this type of structure lacks the foundation to support sustained price increases, and once futures positions begin to unwind, it usually corrects through price pullbacks." CryptoQuant indicated that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the bear market in 2022. While this does not mean that the same outcome will necessarily occur this time, the current structure does present significant downside risks.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on the X platform, stating that the adjusted realized price range model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply shows that this round of Bitcoin falling to the key range of $59,000 marks the beginning of a true medium to long-term bottoming process. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed in one to two weeks; the baseline scenario is expected to take about six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that although Bitcoin has seen some recent increases, the core factor driving market stabilization is not emotional recovery or local rebounds, but rather the return of long-term real demand. This means that the bottom may only be truly established when the market begins to reprice future value and spot buying continues to recover.

CryptoQuant posted on platform X that the current pullback of BTC is still higher than the previous panic sell-off low. This does not guarantee further declines, but the current situation still has substantial differences from past cyclical lows.