cryptoquant

On-chain data company CryptoQuant researcher Rei Researcher pointed out in a report released on Monday that as the Bitcoin supply on exchanges continues to shrink, the price of Bitcoin may see an upward trend. The report shows that the Bitcoin held by exchanges has decreased from 2.8 million in February to 2.67 million. The recent price of Bitcoin is around $83,485, remaining stable over the past 24 hours but rising 8% over the past 30 days, following the best-performing quarter in years.The report states, "If buying demand continues to improve while exchange supply remains low, Bitcoin could benefit from a supply-demand imbalance, creating favorable conditions for a longer-term upward trend." The report adds, "More importantly, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows in recent weeks, while exchange reserves continue to decline. This is a notable development, indicating that even as the market recovers, the supply available for trading is still decreasing." The report also notes that investors may be transferring Bitcoin out of exchanges and into cold wallets.In the first half of 2026, Bitcoin traded below $65,000 for most of the time. After reaching an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, the cryptocurrency has been in a bear market for most of this year. However, the situation changed in August when the U.S. Treasury doubled the scale of liquidity support repurchase operations, weakening the dollar while boosting non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Analysts say that the so-called "devaluation trade" has heated up again, benefiting Bitcoin as it did in 2024 and 2025. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is still over 30% lower than its historical record.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju posted that the Bitcoin bear market cycle has ended, and a bull market or sideways consolidation is expected in the next 12 to 24 months.Previously, on March 18, 2025, he predicted that the Bitcoin bull market cycle would end, leading to a bear market or sideways consolidation for 6 to 12 months, and now officially announces the end of that predicted cycle.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that the market absorbed 220,374 BTC last week, while the net flow to exchanges remained negative at -3,863 BTC.He pointed out that despite the high inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges, the net outflow data indicates that buyer demand in the market is still stronger than selling pressure, showing that some funds are absorbing market supply.

CryptoQuant posted on platform X that Bitcoin miners have recently stopped large-scale selling. Since Bitcoin hit a low of $76,000 on August 21, the miner status has shifted from "extremely undervalued compensation" to "reasonable compensation," and there has been no further extreme outflow of miner funds.CryptoQuant stated that miner selling pressure was an important source of supply that continuously affected Bitcoin prices during the bear market of 2026. The current disappearance of this stable selling pressure may help alleviate market supply pressure.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that after excluding Bitcoin that has not moved for over 10 years, the proportion of BTC supply in profit has remained around 60% since August.The analysis pointed out that from a mid to long-term perspective, most of the current BTC in the market has returned to a profitable state and has not yet reached overheating levels, making continued consolidation around this level a reasonable phenomenon. The analysis believes that tokens that have not moved for over 10 years are deeply profitable and are considered to lack liquidity, with a significant portion likely lost. Excluding these can more accurately reflect the current market situation. The current proportion in profit prompts investors to reassess whether to continue holding or to take profits on positions held for nearly a year or exit with limited losses, with supply and demand dynamics determining the subsequent trend.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that in the past 30 days, Bitcoin's realized market capitalization grew by 1.2% (approximately 12.8 billion USD), reaching 1.079 trillion USD on October 2. Compared to a growth rate of 0.66% a month ago, its growth rate has doubled.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on the X platform that this round of the Bitcoin bull market will bring a 3-5 times increase, rather than another round of parabolic surge exceeding 10 times, followed by a milder bear market.Ki Young Ju pointed out that in this cycle, the MVRV has never fallen below 1. Even at the lows, BTC has remained above the average on-chain cost basis for holders. Some investors have incurred losses, but overall holders have never fallen into a loss.

According to a report by The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno pointed out that Bitcoin's closing price last week was above the 365-day moving average, confirming the start of a new bull market. However, Moreno stated that after Bitcoin reached an eight-month high of $87,400, several indicators show that upward momentum is weakening, and a market correction may follow.The report noted that the on-chain unrealized profit margin for short-term traders has risen to 33%, the highest level since December 2024. Historically, when profit margins are at similar levels, it often prompts traders to take profits. Data shows that on September 22, Bitcoin holders realized profits of 25,700 BTC in a single day, setting a record for the highest daily profit since 2026; the altcoin market also showed signs of selling pressure. The seven-day cumulative number of altcoin transactions rose to 76,000, the highest level since October 17, 2025. Meanwhile, spot demand continues to shrink, and the growth of futures demand has significantly slowed.After Bitcoin previously reached an eight-month high of around $87,400, the upward momentum has shown signs of fatigue. Julio Moreno indicated that if a correction occurs, the 365-day moving average (around $80,000) will serve as the primary support, followed by the 200-day moving average (around $71,000) and the on-chain realized price for traders (around $67,000). Provided that the support levels hold, this correction is more likely to be a healthy consolidation in a young bull market rather than a trend reversal.

CryptoQuant's Research Director Julio Moreno stated that with the recent rise in Bitcoin, the unrealized profit rate has increased to 33%, reaching the highest level since December 2024.Meanwhile, the scale of Bitcoin profit-taking has risen to 25,700 BTC, marking the highest level since 2026. Moreno believes that the simultaneous rise in unrealized profit rate and profit-taking scale typically indicates that the momentum of this rally is weakening, and the market faces the risk of a correction.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin is currently operating above the "active supply cost basis" of $71,300, which represents the average cost of BTC actually circulating in the market and may form significant support.On the other hand, the "capital input cost basis" of $79,800 constitutes resistance, as BTC has previously faced obstacles at this level, with some loss-making positions choosing to exit after approaching breakeven.

According to the special report "Volume Comeback" released by CryptoQuant in September, Gate's spot trading performance in August was strong. On August 21, Gate's daily spot trading volume reached approximately 5.1 billion USD, ranking third among mainstream exchanges globally. As of August 25, Gate's 30-day spot trading volume increased by as much as 667%, ranking first among major mainstream trading platforms, significantly ahead of other leading exchanges.From an industry perspective, the total daily spot trading volume across the network rose to about 75 billion USD on August 21, marking the second highest level since February of this year. CryptoQuant pointed out that this round of volume recovery coincided with price increases, reflecting an overall recovery in market participation and buying demand. Gate's spot trading volume growth ranked first in the industry, while its daily trading volume ranked among the top three, demonstrating strong growth momentum against the backdrop of a recovering market activity.

According to a report by CryptoQuant, cryptocurrency trading volume made a strong comeback in August. After falling to multi-year lows during the bear market, both spot and perpetual contract trading volumes surged significantly on August 21 with the price rebound. The daily spot trading volume reached approximately $75 billion, the highest since February, with Binance leading at $19.4 billion, Coinbase at $8 billion, and Gate at $5.1 billion. The daily perpetual contract trading volume reached about $336 billion, the highest since March, with Binance leading at $124 billion, OKX at $46 billion, and MEXC at $30 billion.The report noted that this increase in volume was due to buying rather than selling—previous spikes in trading volume this year were accompanied by sell-offs, while this time coincided with Bitcoin rising 24%, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness. The 30-day trading volume growth rate was the fastest since 2026, with Gate's spot volume increasing by 667% and Coinbase by 429%; in terms of perpetual contracts, Binance grew by 202% and Bybit by 184%. The report suggests that the rebound in trading volume may signal the end of the bear market downtrend.

CryptoQuant Research Director Julio Moreno stated that after Bitcoin rose 24% in two weeks, it is currently facing temporary resistance, fluctuating in the range of $76,000 to $82,000. Its overall trend remains bullish, but it needs to break through the 365-day moving average located around $81,700 to confirm a new bull market; if it fails to break through, the price may continue to maintain a range-bound oscillation.On-chain data shows that the current nearest and most significant supply resistance zone is between $77,100 and $80,200, where long-term holders have sold up to 539,000 BTC in the past 30 days. Subsequent resistance levels are at $83,600 and $88,700, with $88,700 historically being a point where active traders often take profits. If Bitcoin turns downward, the 200-day moving average near $70,000 may provide support; another support range is between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders have accumulated approximately 476,000 BTC this year.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the recent rise in Bitcoin has driven investor sentiment to its most optimistic level in nearly two years, with related market sentiment indicators briefly breaking 89, entering the "extreme greed" zone, the last time a similar level was seen was in March 2024.Darkfost pointed out that when market sentiment is excessively optimistic or pessimistic, it is often worth paying attention to potential market turning points. Currently, this indicator has started to retreat from its previous euphoric levels, gradually returning to a relatively normal range, while the Bitcoin price is attempting to hold its current level.

The Bitcoin On-Chain Spending Profit Ratio (SOPR) has remained above the breakeven point of 1 for three consecutive weeks, marking the longest bullish cycle since 2026. Data from CryptoQuant shows that this metric has consistently been above 1 since August 19, currently reported at 1.002, indicating that most Bitcoin transferred on-chain is in profit. On-chain analysis tool Checkonchain points out that the structure of the short-term holder SOPR is beginning to resemble the early stages of a bull market recovery, rather than the rebound-and-sell pattern seen in a bear market.However, David Puell, portfolio manager at ARK Invest and founder of the Puell Multiple metric, warns that there is still downside risk for Bitcoin prices. In an interview with CryptoQuant, he stated that more evidence is needed to confirm that the bottom of this bear market has been reached. The SOPR needs to stay above 1 for a longer period, and investors must continue to realize profits without prices making new lows. Additionally, Bitcoin needs to form a series of higher highs and higher lows on a weekly basis, a pattern that has not yet emerged.Previously, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju had suggested that the bear market was over based on his proprietary bull-bear market cycle indicator. Currently, Bitcoin prices are fluctuating around $80,000.

Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost pointed out that the proportion of Memecoins in the total market capitalization of all altcoins has fallen to a historic low.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on platform X, pointing out that the profit ratio of short-term Bitcoin holders (STH SOPR) has recently shown noteworthy changes. This indicator measures the profit realization of short-term holders who have held for less than 6 months, and it has now risen above 1, reaching approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered the profit zone.Darkfost noted that during the last bear market, short-term Bitcoin holders remained in an average loss state for about a year, while the current level is significantly higher than the brief reaction in May of this year, indicating that the optimism among short-term holders is improving. A healthy market should not avoid profit-taking but rather needs to realize profits continuously and moderately, especially for short-term holders, who are the most active and sensitive group in the market. If the 30-day moving average of STH SOPR can maintain its position in the current area, it will be a very positive signal, as historically, every bull market has been accompanied by continuous profit realization from short-term holders.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that as BTC returns to around $82,000, the open interest of Binance Bitcoin contracts has increased by nearly 8% in the past 24 hours, surpassing $10 billion, and reaching a new high in nearly 6 months.The open interest measured in BTC has also risen to 125,830 coins.

Cryptoquant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju stated that the peak of the current Bitcoin bull market cycle may be driven by institutional funds and ETF demand outside the United States. He pointed out that deeper stablecoin liquidity and tokenized asset infrastructure will expand global market participation. Using South Korea as an example, Ki Young Ju mentioned that the country currently does not have a spot Bitcoin ETF, retail investors cannot purchase overseas-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, and most companies are unable to open trading accounts to buy BTC. South Korea has phased in corporate participation, with the Financial Services Commission (FSC) roadmap covering about 3,500 listed companies and qualified professional investors, but financial institutions and other companies are still excluded.Strategy's Bitcoin bank evaluated 25 major institutions covering trading, custody, digital asset products, financing, and corporate participation, with an overall adoption rate of 32%. RWA.xyz data shows that the global tokenized asset distributed asset value is $38.63 billion, an increase of 2.65% compared to 30 days ago. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) stated that stablecoins have the potential to enable faster, programmable payments, but current designs may pose risks to financial integrity, liquidity, and currency. Ki Young Ju pointed out that the cumulative net inflow before the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF was about $57 billion over two years, and the next phase will be global institutionalization, with more institutions adopting BTC as a strategic asset, and countries lacking ETFs will also improve related investment channels.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the peak of this bull market cycle is likely to be driven by institutional funds and ETFs outside of the United States. Currently, South Korea has not yet launched a spot Bitcoin ETF, retail investors cannot purchase overseas related ETFs, and companies are even unable to open trading platform accounts to buy BTC.Ki Young Ju believes that the market was primarily driven by the adoption of Bitcoin in the United States, but the next phase will shift towards global institutionalization, accompanied by deeper stablecoin liquidity and RWA infrastructure. More institutions will hold BTC as a strategic asset, and several countries that have not yet launched ETFs will gradually improve related investment channels. The peak of this cycle may occur when a banker from a local bank in South Korea recommends a spot Bitcoin ETF to an elderly woman, suggesting it for savings.