cryptoquant

Cryptoquant indicates that its 365-day PnL index signal continues to decline, showing that the current BTC cycle may not have reached its peak yet. BTC is currently trading at approximately $62,656, down about 50% from its historical high of around $126,000 in October 2025.Cryptoquant's bull-bear cycle indicator turned green on May 12, 2026, marking the first bullish signal since March 2023. Cryptoquant stated that this indicator had shown false positives in 2022, and the green signal itself does not guarantee a sustained upward trend. A major whale bought BTC worth $98,900,000 at the low of $59,734 on June 5 and made a profit of $3,500,000 within two days after the market rebound. BTC has since maintained above $60,000, trading at approximately $62,550 at the time of writing.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Strategy recently sold 3,588 BTC, marking the largest recorded Bitcoin sale to date, with the funds used for preferred stock payments and to replenish USD reserves.According to the Form 8-K document he cited, the sale was executed in two batches: from June 29 to June 30, 1,363 BTC were sold at an average price of $59,256, generating $80.8 million; from July 1 to July 5, 2,225 BTC were sold at an average price of $60,773, generating $135.2 million, for a total revenue of $216 million. The funds were used for preferred stock payments and to replenish USD reserves.Axel indicated that this sale differs from the sales made in 2022 for tax optimization, as it is primarily driven by debt obligations and does not represent a change in Strategy's long-term Bitcoin strategy. As of July 5, Strategy still holds 843,775 BTC and $2.55 billion in reserves, with this sale accounting for approximately 0.4% of its Bitcoin reserves.He also pointed out that after the announcement, the Bitcoin futures market positions significantly cooled down, with the Composite Market Index (IMI) dropping from about 80 to 32.6, briefly approaching 20, entering a bearish range; however, Bitcoin prices have largely remained in the range of $61,600 to $64,200, still above the 30-day fair value of $61,800. Analysts believe that the market currently views this sale as passive liquidity management rather than the beginning of a systematic reduction.

According to CryptoQuant data, the capital efficiency of Bitcoin in each bull market cycle is significantly decreasing. In the 2011 cycle, approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows drove a rise of about 55,000%; in 2015, about $69 billion corresponded to nearly 10,000%; in 2018, about $365 billion corresponded to about 2,000%; and in this cycle since 2022, about $697 billion has only produced a 689% return.In 2011, about $5 million in new funds could double the price of Bitcoin, while this cycle requires about $101 billion. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that this means Bitcoin needs to become a core macro asset rather than just a retail-driven ETF trade. The next parabolic market needs to attract over $1 trillion in new funds, far exceeding the current level of institutional adoption. However, this argument faces real challenges: the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen record outflows in the past month, Bitcoin ended the first half of the year at a loss, and retail funds are withdrawing rather than institutional funds accelerating inflows.

CryptoQuant data shows that in Q1 2026, the total loan size of the CeFi credit market decreased by 6% quarter-on-quarter to $23.3 billion, marking the first contraction across the industry since Q3 2024. The reduction in loan size is attributed to crypto users reducing leverage during the bear market.Tether remains the largest lender, with a loan size of $15.8 billion and a market share of 68%, followed by Maple Finance ($2.1 billion, 9%) and Nexo ($1.8 billion, 8%). Market share is shifting towards Maple, Nexo, and Coinbase, with the three experiencing increases of 1.0, 0.5, and 0.7 percentage points respectively during the quarter. Coinbase and Maple saw loan sizes grow by approximately 6% quarter-on-quarter, while Nexo recorded nearly 1% growth, making them the only three major lenders to experience growth. The remaining institutions saw a contraction in loan sizes, with Galaxy Digital (-21%) and Ledn (-19%) leading the declines, while Tether's loan size decreased by 7%.

CryptoQuant CEO stated that the capital efficiency of Bitcoin is continuously declining------In 2011, a net inflow of only $5 million could double the price, while this cycle requires about $101 billion to achieve the same effect. He believes that the next parabolic bull market cycle may require net capital inflows on the order of trillions of dollars, and Bitcoin must transition from being dominated by retail-driven ETF trading to becoming a core macro asset. If Bitcoin's actual market value can exceed $1 trillion, the next bull market is still expected to occur, while the current market value of gold has reached $27 trillion, indicating significant growth potential in comparison.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the current Bitcoin purchasing behavior of Strategy resembles a "liquidity absorber" rather than an effective price catalyst.He pointed out that in the past two years, Bitcoin's market capitalization has increased by $467 billion, yet the price has actually dropped by 1%, indicating that the influx of large amounts of capital has merely resulted in a transfer of chips without driving up the price. In the current environment with obvious selling pressure, continuous buying by Strategy may only serve to maintain the range rather than truly drive an increase.Ki Young Ju suggested that Strategy pause Bitcoin purchases until cash reserves and dividend coverage capabilities are restored; establish a systematic, model-driven buying framework to avoid the market impression of "always buying at local highs"; and create a disciplined selling mechanism in the next bull market to reduce leverage and realize shareholder value by partially taking profits at highs, while accumulating reserves of "dry powder" for future lows.He believes that this cycle is different from previous ones, as Bitcoin has been in a sideways trend for nearly two years, neither forming a strong bull market nor experiencing sufficient panic selling and weak hands clearing out. The market may need a more thorough clearing to initiate a healthier rebound.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the phenomenon of Bitcoin driving funds into altcoins, which once boosted altcoin markets, has basically disappeared. He pointed out that since 2021, the trading volume of altcoins paired with BTC has significantly shrunk, and the market structure has undergone noticeable changes. Ki Young Ju believes that the era of "Bitcoin rising leading to a general rise in altcoins" may have ended, and in the future, altcoins may rely more on their own fundamentals, application scenarios, and independent capital inflows to drive price increases.

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin network activity has risen to a level approximately 7% away from the historical peak in September 2024, and has broken through the long-term trend line for the first time since mid-2024, primarily driven by a large number of small transactions rather than traditional economic payment activities. The daily number of Bitcoin transactions in 2026 has exceeded 800,000, more than doubling from the low point in 2025, approaching the cycle peak from 2023 to 2025.CryptoQuant believes that this growth has structural characteristics rather than being a short-term fluctuation. Among these, small transactions below 0.01 BTC now account for about 80%, significantly higher than about 44% in 2023. This change is closely related to the usage of OP_RETURN, which is near historical highs. CryptoQuant points out that protocols such as Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20, and data timestamp services generate a large number of low-value transactions by writing data to the blockchain, with some transaction amounts as low as 546 satoshis.As inscription activities increase, the number of transactions in the Bitcoin mempool has risen to about 128,000, the highest level since February 2025. Although still below the extreme congestion levels of September 2023 and November 2024, the report suggests that non-financial use transactions are occupying an increasing amount of Bitcoin network throughput, and if this trend continues, it may drive up transaction fees for time-sensitive economic transactions.Meanwhile, the rise in on-chain activity contrasts with the flow of funds. There has been a net outflow of over $528 million from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot funds; however, institutional investors still view ETF fund flows as the core driving force of this cycle and maintain the benchmark expectation that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of the year.

CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that transactions below 0.01 BTC currently account for about 80% of the total daily transaction volume on the Bitcoin network, significantly higher than approximately 44% in 2023.Moreno pointed out that this growth is mainly driven by on-chain data protocols based on OP_RETURN, such as Runes, Ordinals, BRC-20, and data timestamp services. These protocols generate a large number of small transactions, with some transaction sizes even as low as 546 satoshis (about $0.35), thereby continuously increasing the number of low-value transfers. In addition, the Bitcoin network activity index has been steadily rising since January of this year and has now reached its highest level since the end of 2024.

CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech analysis states that the selling pressure of altcoins on spot exchanges has reached extreme levels not seen in five years, with the spot market experiencing net selling for 15 consecutive months. The cumulative trading volume of altcoins, excluding BTC and ETH, has recorded the lowest negative value since data tracking began in 2020; this indicator was close to neutral in early 2025, but then turned significantly negative again and has continued to decline since.

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated, "Altcoins have not died, but purely narrative altcoins are dead." The era where one could make money simply by issuing a token is no longer. He believes that the altcoins that can survive and are worth paying attention to in the future can be divided into the following three main camps: first, global internet companies with tokenized market layers, where in some cases issuing tokens is more pragmatic than tokenized equity listings, such as BNB and GRAM (TON); second, DeFi services with real revenue, such as Hyperliquid and high-quality DeFi protocols; third, projects that align with broader financial trends. Ki Young Ju concluded that just as true IT giants emerged after the internet bubble, real crypto enterprises will also emerge after this cycle.

CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu stated that the BTC whale sell-off has ended, with total whale holdings turning from a decline to an increase after 12 consecutive days of decrease, and the price rebounding to $65,704.89.From June 5 to 10, during the low point of $61,400, the exchange whale ratio once rose to 62.3%, while over 11,400 BTC flowed from exchanges to cold wallets. He believes that the transfer of chips during this round of decline has basically been completed.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a significant inflow into exchanges, while stablecoin liquidity continues to flow out. The deterioration on both the supply and demand sides of the market is considered a key reason for Bitcoin's approximately 22% decline from its May peak.Data shows that the 30-day net exchange flow indicator for Bitcoin has turned significantly positive, currently at about +114,000 BTC. Compared to the net outflow status of about -85,000 to -115,000 BTC in early May, the market has shifted from an accumulation phase to a distribution phase. This indicator briefly rose to about +167,000 BTC in early June, indicating that more holders are transferring BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average net flow of stablecoins remains in negative territory, currently at about -105 million USD. In early May, this indicator was still in the range of +40 million to +90 million USD, representing strong buying liquidity in the market; however, it turned negative after mid-May and expanded to about -150 million to -170 million USD in early June, indicating that stablecoin funds are leaving exchanges, reducing the market's "ammunition."

CryptoQuant released the latest report indicating that Bitcoin has fallen to a new low of $59,000 in this bear market, currently only 9% higher than the realized price of $53,600, and from a valuation perspective, it is close to the bottom range of previous bear markets. However, CryptoQuant pointed out that the current bottom has not yet been confirmed. Last week, total Bitcoin demand dropped to negative 652,000 BTC, marking the largest contraction since January 2022; the one-year apparent spot demand growth rate also turned negative, falling to its weakest level since February 2024.Meanwhile, ETF purchase demand experienced the fastest contraction since its launch in January 2024, with the 30-day ETF demand growth rate hitting a historical low. The report also stated that realized losses in the past 30 days amounted to 187,000 BTC, which has not yet reached the level of historic sell-off clearance.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost's post on the X platform, the open interest in Ethereum perpetual contracts on Binance (measured in ETH) has reached an all-time high, nearing 3.7 million ETH. At the same time, Binance's share of the total open interest in Ethereum has risen to over 44%. This data comes after ETH's current price has dropped about 67% from its historical peak and entered an extremely oversold area.Darkfost stated that despite the rising market uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the continued deterioration of the economic outlook, some traders are choosing to increase their risk exposure in the derivatives market. The average active buyer/seller ratio on Binance has risen from 0.95 to 1, indicating that after months of seller dominance, the flow of funds is rebalancing, and more investors are willing to take on risk to rebuild long positions.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's realized market cap 30-day change rate has dropped to -1.1%, marking the first time since mid-March that capital outflow has reached this level. From a peak of approximately $1.087 trillion in mid-May, the realized market cap has decreased by about $12 billion to $1.075 trillion. The contraction rate has noticeably accelerated: on June 1, this metric was -0.15%, and by June 8, it had fallen to -1.1%. During the same period, the BTC price dropped from $82,000 to $63,000, a decline of 23%. The current outflow rate is now comparable to the beginning of the capitulation in March, when this metric reached -2.4%, indicating there is still room for deterioration.The aSOPR 30-day moving average has been below 1 for 13 consecutive days since it fell below 1 on May 28, currently at 0.987, indicating an average loss of about 1.3% per transaction. The long-term aSOPR below 1 is a classic sign of weak hands being flushed out, with sellers still dominating until it rises back to 1. The combination of these two indicators defines the capitulation phase: capital is flowing out of the network, driven by loss sales.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan pointed out that the Bitcoin MVRV is currently 1.1, which is close to the historically significant undervaluation range marking major market bottoms.If the price further dips to the low of $50,000, the MVRV may reach the fully undervalued level of 1. Historical data shows that this level appeared at the bottoms of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, and each time became the starting point for a strong medium to long-term rebound.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that Bitcoin is once again testing a low point of around $62,000, while the current 7-day net realized losses have reached approximately $7 billion, higher than the levels during the low point in February this year, but still below the peak loss of about $14 billion during the winter market panic.Currently, the Bitcoin price has clearly fallen below the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) at around $76,000. If it continues to decline, the main support left is the average realized price across the network at about $54,000, as well as the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) at around $49,000. These two areas corresponded to the full capitulation phase and the formation of the cycle bottom in historical cycles.However, as long as Bitcoin remains above $54,000, the market will not enter a full capitulation phase; if it falls below and continues to operate below the market low point from February this year, it may further test the final defense line near $54,000 in this round.

Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, posted on social media that the price of Bitcoin is the same now as it was two years ago, but one thing has changed. The "6 months to 2 years" holding group that entered during this cycle currently accounts for 53% of the realized market cap, while two years ago this proportion was only 15%. In the previous cycle, when this proportion reached 68%, Bitcoin bottomed out. Currently, short-term holders are gradually evolving into long-term holders.

CryproQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju posted on social media, "Once profit-taking begins to form a chain reaction, Bitcoin investors' profit and loss levels (PnL) typically continue to decline for about 18 months. Since this trend reversed in October 2025, the current bear market may last until early 2027.The trend will only truly reverse when unrealized profits start to rise again and realized profits begin to decline. However, at present, we have not seen this situation occur."