bearish

According to Jin10, Chris Turner from ING stated in a report that if the upcoming U.S. economic data shows weakness, the dollar may face downward pressure. The preliminary consumer confidence index for February from the University of Michigan will be released at 23:00 Beijing time tonight. Turner noted that if this data unexpectedly declines, it could pose a slight bearish risk to the dollar, as it would once again remind the market that consumer confidence is somewhat dependent on stock market performance.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's downward trend continues, having once touched the $60,000 mark. Currently, the funding rates on major CEX and DEX platforms indicate that the market has once again turned bearish, with specific funding rates shown in the attached image.Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between the contract price and the underlying asset price, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders; the trading platform does not charge this fee. Instead, it is used to adjust the cost or profit of the contracts held by traders, keeping the contract price close to the underlying asset price. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.

The co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, Zhu Su, stated that the gradual exit of early Bitcoin holders (OG) is not as pessimistic as it seems.He pointed out that since the price of Bitcoin was still at the $1 stage, OGs have been continuously distributing their chips, and each round of chip redistribution actually enhances Bitcoin's long-term health and "monetary nature." Zhu Su indicated that if Bitcoin had to rely on any individual for long-term holding to sustain itself, it would have already failed; historically, there have been many early participants who successfully cashed out and retired when Bitcoin reached $1,000 in 2013. He also mentioned that investors in Strategy (MSTR) are essentially paying for Bitcoin risk exposure, with Michael Saylor being more of an "incarnation" in this process rather than the sole beneficiary.

According to Coinglass data, after another dip in the cryptocurrency market today, the funding rates indicate that the current market remains broadly bearish, with bearish sentiment towards BTC and ETH even stronger than that towards altcoins. Currently, the funding rates for BTC and ETH contracts on almost all platforms are negative, while the rates for altcoins, although still bearish, are mostly positive. The specific funding rates are shown in the attached image.Funding rates are the fees set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of the underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It serves as a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders; the trading platform does not charge this fee, which is used to adjust the cost or profit of traders holding contracts to keep the contract prices close to the prices of the underlying assets. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.

According to Jinshi News, the nomination of Waller as the Federal Reserve Chair triggered the largest single-day increase in the dollar since May of last year. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in the week ending January 27, fund managers increased their bearish bets on the dollar by $8.3 billion, marking the largest increase since April 2025.At the same time, hedge funds reduced their net long positions in the dollar by $5.1 billion, the largest decrease since July 2024. Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group, stated that despite the dollar's rebound, policy uncertainty will persist, and there are still reasons to short the dollar. During the Asian trading session on Monday, the dollar experienced significant volatility, initially rising before turning to decline.

As the funds from the spot Bitcoin ETF continue to flow out, the Bitcoin options market is showing clear bearish signals, and the market's expectation of BTC breaking below $80,000 has increased.In the derivatives market, the Bitcoin options delta skew indicator once rose to 17%, reaching a more than one-year high, significantly higher than the typical level of no more than 6% in a neutral market, reflecting extreme risk-averse sentiment. Additionally, the total open interest in Bitcoin futures has dropped to $46 billion, a significant decrease from the $58 billion high three months ago, indicating that excessive leverage is being gradually cleared. Overall, the sentiment in the Bitcoin derivatives market is cautious, and analysts believe that whether Bitcoin can regain a position above $87,000 may depend on whether market risk appetite can recover after a reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty.

According to Jinshi reports, after U.S. President Trump commented on the weakness of the dollar, dollar options traders showed overwhelming bearish sentiment.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin's attempt to reach $90,000 has been thwarted, currently reported at $89,627. The funding rates on mainstream CEX and DEX platforms indicate a slight easing of the bearish sentiment towards BTC and SOL, with some trading platforms returning to neutral rates. However, a large-scale bearish sentiment towards altcoins still exists, with specific funding rates for mainstream coins shown in the attached image.Note: Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of the underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and trading platforms do not charge this fee; it is used to adjust the cost or profit of traders holding contracts to keep the contract price close to the underlying asset price. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.

Bitcoin's failure to return above $90,000 has weakened investor confidence and intensified bearish sentiment. Georgii Verbitskii, founder of the non-custodial Web3 platform TYMIO, stated, "In the short term, Bitcoin's weakness stems from a lack of interest from large institutions at current price levels." He pointed out that geopolitical uncertainty has led investors to adopt defensive strategies.Ryan Li, co-founder of Surf, added, "Even strong-performing altcoins are struggling, such as Avalanche, which has dropped about 66% since last September, despite having collaborated with institutions like JPMorgan and WisdomTree. This shows that the market's tolerance for altcoins is very low." Verbitskii noted that gold has become the focus of the market, attracting major safe-haven funds and marginalizing Bitcoin. He believes this is not a "systemic change" caused by panic, but rather a revaluation of Bitcoin as a non-preferred asset during this period. However, once large funds re-enter the market, sentiment could change. Until then, he expects market sentiment to remain uncertain.

According to HyperInsight monitoring, in the past hour, the whale address (0x007d...) has increased its short position by approximately 220 BTC, worth about $19.74 million. Currently, this address holds a total of 374 BTC short positions with 40x leverage, amounting to approximately $34 million, with an unrealized loss of about $190,000 and a liquidation price of around $110,000. It has also set a take-profit order in the range of $71,100 to $72,100.Since the 20th, this address has cumulatively deposited and sold about 171 BTC in spot on Hyperliquid (worth about $15.4 million), completing its liquidation. Earlier today, after finishing the sale, it established a short position for the first time at around $88,000 for BTC, with an initial scale that once reached $13.8 million; this operation is a further increase in its short position.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market have fallen again, with the BTC price giving back all of last week's gains that rose to $98,000. This cryptocurrency market sell-off is in line with the movements of U.S. stock index futures, with futures linked to the Nasdaq 100 index dropping more than 1.9%, and S&P 500 index futures falling 1.6%.Additionally, the open interest in Bitcoin futures remains stable, and the funding rates for most major tokens are still positive, while the futures open interest (OI) for DOGE, ZEC, and ADA has seen significant declines, indicating capital outflows. On some derivatives platforms, traders are continuously pricing bearish options for BTC and ETH higher than bullish options, with traders pricing the likelihood of BTC falling below $80,000 at 30%.

According to Coinglass data, the cryptocurrency market experienced a pullback in recent days, briefly dropping below $91,000. Currently, the funding rates on major CEX and DEX platforms indicate that the bearish sentiment towards BTC, ETH, and SOL has eased, returning to a roughly neutral rate. However, there remains a significant bearish sentiment towards altcoins, with specific funding rates for major cryptocurrencies shown in the attached image.Note: Funding rates are the rates set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain the balance between contract prices and the prices of underlying assets, typically applicable to perpetual contracts. It is a mechanism for the exchange of funds between long and short traders, and trading platforms do not charge this fee. It is used to adjust the cost or profit of the contracts held by traders, keeping the contract price close to the underlying asset price. When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it represents a generally bullish market. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it indicates a generally bearish market.

Decentralized on-chain options, perpetual contracts, and structured product protocol Derive.xyz traders believe that the probability of Bitcoin falling below $80,000 is 30%. Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, stated, "The options market shows a clear downward skew, with a 30% chance of Bitcoin dropping below $80,000, while the probability of breaking above $120,000 is only 19%."Recently, due to ten countries opposing the U.S. takeover plan for Greenland, Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from these ten European countries, reigniting tariff concerns, which led Bitcoin to drop from $95,000 to $91,000.Dawson noted that geopolitical tensions could lead to a deeper decline. "The escalation of geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe (especially regarding the Greenland dispute) increases the systemic risk of the market returning to a high-volatility environment, a dynamic that has not yet been fully reflected in current spot prices." He explained that the options skew indicator, which measures the difference in prices between call and put options, remains in negative territory, suggesting short-term downside concerns.Activities on centralized derivatives platforms like Deribit also show the same signals. On both the Derive and Deribit platforms, open interest in put options with strike prices between $75,000 and $80,000 is highly concentrated, reflecting market expectations that prices may dip into the mid-$75,000 range.

Suspected "1011 Insider Whale" Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that comparing the current Bitcoin market to that of 2022 is highly unprofessional. He believes that there are essential differences between the two from the perspectives of long-term price structure, macro background, investor composition, and chip distribution. He pointed out that the current macro environment is completely opposite to the high inflation and interest rate hike cycle of 2022: the situation in Ukraine is easing, CPI and risk-free interest rates are declining, and especially the AI technology revolution is likely to drive the economy into a long-term deflationary cycle. Interest rates have entered a phase of reduction, and central bank liquidity is returning to the financial system, which defines the risk appetite behavior of capital.Since 2020, Bitcoin has shown a significant negative correlation with CPI, and under the AI-driven technological revolution, long-term deflation is a high-probability outcome. Technically, 2021-2022 was a weekly M-top structure, while 2025 is a breakout of the upward channel, which is more likely to be a "bear market trap" before a rebound. He noted that to replicate the bear market of 2022, it is necessary to simultaneously meet stringent conditions such as the re-emergence of inflation shocks, the central bank restarting interest rate hikes or quantitative tightening, and a decisive price drop below $80,850. It is too early to be bearish before these conditions are met.In terms of investor structure, 2020-2022 was a high-leverage speculative market dominated by retail investors, while since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2023, structural long-term holders have entered the market, effectively locking in supply and significantly reducing trading speed and volatility. Bitcoin has shifted from a historical volatility range of 80-150% to a range of 30-60%, becoming a distinctly different asset. The current market has entered a more mature institutional era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked supply, and institutional-level volatility.

According to Jin Ten, foreign exchange strategist Audrey Freeman stated that as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut begin to be questioned, the moderate CPI data for December has brought a welcome relief, indicating that it is still too early to abandon expectations for a dovish shift from the Fed this year. This also means that it may still be too early to give up on the bearish outlook for the dollar driven by Fed rate cuts in 2026.

Cryptanalysis expert Willy Woo posted on the X platform expressing a bullish outlook for Bitcoin's performance from late January to February, as the current internal investor flow model indicates that the market has been steadily strengthening since bottoming out at the end of December last year. However, prices typically need 2-3 weeks to reflect this change.Additionally, the liquidity of derivatives in the futures market is returning after months of silence, similar to the situation in mid-2021, which led to the second peak of the previous cycle. At this stage, Bitcoin needs to challenge the price range of $98,000 to $100,000, and if it breaks through this level, the performance of the resistance at the all-time high (ATH) should be observed.However, Willy Woo remains bearish for the entire year of 2026, as from a more macro perspective, liquidity flow has been weakening relative to price momentum since January 2025. If a significant influx of spot liquidity occurs in the coming months to break the downward trend, it may change his outlook. Currently, the bear market has not been confirmed, as indicated by the increasing negative fund outflows from Bitcoin, which is a lagging indicator of the cycle's peak.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin has fallen back to near its opening price at the beginning of the year after rising close to $95,000, and there is even a possibility of dropping below $90,000 within the daily trading timeframe. Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource platform Material Indicators, stated, "Bitcoin's initial breakout attempt has been clearly rejected." He warned this week that bearish forces are at play on higher timeframes. He pointed out that the technical support to watch is concentrated in the $87,500 to $89,000 range.Alan also stated, "With a macro death cross appearing on the weekly chart later this month, I believe any rebound that occurs next should be viewed as a 'high sell event,' unless there is evidence to suggest otherwise." Trader Roman, who has repeatedly warned of macro downside risks for Bitcoin in 2025, reiterated that the short-term target is $76,000, a price last seen in April of this year. Roman said, "Currently around $89,000, the downside continues. I still believe $76,000 will come; all this consolidation is just to reach that position for a reset. I don't see any signs of reversal, and the higher timeframe remains very bearish."

Binance Research pointed out in its cryptocurrency market report that despite the Federal Reserve's easing policies, the cryptocurrency market continues to decline due to cautious investor sentiment. However, as asset management companies continue to increase their holdings, the market dominance of Bitcoin and Ethereum is steadily strengthening. January may become a turning point for bearish momentum, as investors consider reallocating from overvalued asset classes back into cryptocurrencies.In 2025, driven by factors such as monetary easing, AI demand, and a shift towards "commodity control," metals emerged as a standout asset class. Although Bitcoin also benefited from similar macro-positive factors, its performance in the fourth quarter showed divergence due to a lack of "strategic asset premium." However, this divergence may be temporary: as U.S. legislation pushes to institutionalize strategic Bitcoin reserves and potentially shifts from holding seized assets to active fiscal procurement, the valuation framework for Bitcoin is expected to realign with that of strategic metals.Market participants expect that due to tariff shocks, a weak labor market, and a leadership shift towards dovish policies, easing measures will accelerate in 2026, while demanding higher long-term premiums to compensate for "fiscal dominance" and the impending debt pressure exceeding $50 trillion. The steepening yield curve indicates that the market does not endorse the Federal Reserve's "soft landing" narrative, creating an excellent opportunity for Bitcoin to benefit from both the influx of short-term cheap liquidity and the erosion of long-term fiat credit.Since their launch, altcoin ETFs have mostly attracted net inflows, accumulating over $2 billion, with XRP and SOL leading the way, while other assets contributed smaller but steady inflows. In contrast, since October, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have consistently experienced net outflows, highlighting the divergence in marginal demand as market momentum slows.Although it is still in the early stages, the approval of more altcoin ETFs and ongoing inflows may increasingly impact liquidity distribution, especially if broader market inflows accelerate again. In 2025, six newly launched stablecoins surpassed a market capitalization of $1 billion. As stablecoins continue to be adopted globally, their related metrics are increasingly becoming important indicators of global financial activity.

CryptoQuant reported that data shows the 14-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Ethereum Coinbase premium has dropped to -2.285, marking the lowest level since early February 2025.The agency stated that this sign of on-chain weakness indicates a weakening demand from U.S. institutional investors, and traders should remain cautious, as the continuation of this negative trend increases the risk of further corrections in Ethereum.