bullish

Despite Bitcoin's pullback of about 2.5% since reaching a peak of $82,800, market analysts generally believe that its overall upward structure remains intact and has re-entered the "full bull market momentum" range. Swiss wealth management firm Swissblock pointed out that Bitcoin has re-entered the price expansion range, the Bull Market Support Band has turned into support, and the 21-week EMA has crossed above the 20-week SMA, with the trend structure turning bullish again. Currently, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $80,000, where the "real market average" and short-term holding costs constitute key support, while the realized price around $85,000 forms an upper pressure zone.Whale and institutional-led spot buying are strengthening, while the proportion of derivative speculation is decreasing. Similar structures historically correspond to sustainable upward trends. If this indicator continues to maintain positive values, it may further drive Bitcoin to continue its upward cycle. In terms of liquidity, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has rebounded from historical lows to a key range, indicating that stablecoin funds are flowing back into the market. This signal has corresponded to phase bottom rebounds in mid-2021, 2022, and mid-2023. Meanwhile, the Binance stablecoin supply ratio oscillation indicator (SSR Oscillator) has risen to 2.8, reaching a 12-month high, showing a significant increase in stablecoin purchasing power.On-chain activity is also strengthening. Bitcoin's daily transaction volume has increased by 116%, reaching 831,400 transactions, a 20-month high; the number of active addresses has increased by 7.1% to 707,700, and total transaction fees have grown by 37% to $279,300, indicating a significant increase in network usage activity. In terms of funding structure, the 90-day spot Taker CVD has turned into a sustained positive value, indicating that spot buying is dominating the market. Glassnode data shows that this indicator has further risen to $62 million compared to a week ago, reflecting an increase in market proactive buying sentiment.In summary, the price structure, liquidity indicators, and on-chain demand all indicate that Bitcoin is currently still in a "strong trend expansion phase," and the bull market momentum has not yet ended.

As the first CEX platform to connect with Polymarket, Gate's data shows that the overall market expectation for the "WTI Crude Oil May Price" related prediction event remains strong. Among them, the probability of WTI crude oil prices exceeding $110 is 51%, the probability of exceeding $105 is 67%, and the probability of exceeding $100 is as high as 94%. Overall, the market maintains an optimistic outlook on the short-term trend of oil prices, with funding expectations continuously leaning towards an upward direction.Gate's performance in the Polymarket partnership channel continues to lead, currently securing a spot in the top three, with a significant increase in user participation scale, reflecting the growing activity and engagement depth of platform users in the prediction market. Users can directly access the prediction market through the Gate App, entering the Polymarket page from the platform's homepage Alpha, and participate in event predictions using USDT in their exchange accounts. This integration marks a key step for Gate in merging the crypto trading ecosystem with the prediction market, providing users with a diversified market experience from expectation judgment to trading participation.In addition, Gate will launch the "Polymarket 100 USDT Battle God Challenge" social media event from May 11, 15:00 to May 20, 15:00 (UTC+8), where users can participate in prediction market trading with a maximum of 100 USDT and compete for the earnings leaderboard and quality content creator rewards by sharing profit reports, trading strategies, and review content. The total prize pool of the event includes 66 content reward slots and a 1,000 USDT Battle God earnings prize pool.

According to 10x Research analysis, since mid-January, the total gamma exposure of Bitcoin has remained negative, currently reaching -3.2 billion dollars at the strike price of 82,000 dollars. In a negative gamma environment, market makers are forced to trade in the direction of the trend, accelerating buying during price increases and accelerating selling during price decreases, which exacerbates price volatility.As the options expiration on May 29 and June 26 approaches, the negative gamma suppression effect is expected to gradually dissipate, and the downward bias of Bitcoin will subsequently ease. Currently, the market demand for call options is significantly higher than for put options, and institutions expect that market sentiment will shift from bearish to bullish at that time.

Bitcoin bulls have high expectations for the year-end options expiring on December 25, involving about $6 billion in funds. Since the year’s low of $60,130 on February 6, the BTC price has risen by 33%, which has largely driven the return of bullish sentiment in the market. However, the large number of call (buy) options with target prices pointing to $115,000 and above has also raised questions about whether the bulls are overly optimistic.The Deribit trading platform holds a 92% market share in December Bitcoin options open interest, reaching $5.5 billion. On Deribit, put (sell) options have decreased by 56% compared to call options, as crypto traders have traditionally favored bullish positions, with the put-call ratio typically skewed. Even so, the open interest for call options at $115,000 and above amounts to $1.85 billion, which is still a considerable size. However, the number of put options at $55,000 and below is also significant, with total open interest of $1 billion. This indicates that both sides are viewed as having a similar proportion of bets deemed unlikely to materialize, each accounting for about 50% of their respective open interest segments. If the bulls are seen as overly optimistic, the bears also seem to be equally extreme in their pessimism.The options skew indicator more clearly reflects professional traders' comfort levels regarding upside and downside price risks. Put options are trading at a 9% premium relative to equivalent call options, indicating moderate concern about Bitcoin's downside price volatility. Under neutral conditions, the skew indicator should be between -6% and +6%. According to derivatives indicators, investor optimism has not been materially affected during Bitcoin's rise to $80,000. Ultimately, the $1.85 billion in call options for December should not be interpreted as a signal of excessive confidence from the bulls.

Solana's official tweet stated that Bullish has tokenized its entire cap table by putting 151 million shares on-chain to Solana after completing the acquisition of Equiniti.Bullish CEO Thomas Farley announced this news at the Consensus 2026 conference and demonstrated a real-time wallet-to-wallet share transfer live using the Phantom wallet.

On-chain data platform Glassnode shows that Bitcoin whales' net long positions on Hyperliquid have risen to a new high for 2026. The data indicates that whales have been continuously increasing their long positions recently, continuing the trend of going long after last month's Bitcoin price breakout. Currently, the total positions of whales on the platform are approximately $3.5 billion, with longs slightly outnumbering shorts.Analysis suggests that the movements of Hyperliquid whales are often seen as a market sentiment indicator; the current overall liquidation scale is relatively low and mainly concentrated in short positions, reflecting a bullish market atmosphere.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the cryptocurrency trading platform Bullish will acquire the share transfer agency Equiniti for $4.2 billion (including debt). The acquisition of Equiniti is expected to close in January next year, pending regulatory approval.Equiniti provides services to nearly 3,000 listed companies, including Berkshire Hathaway and Moody's.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, posted on the X platform stating that Bitcoin has currently surpassed the 7-day and 30-day moving averages, with both short-term and medium-term trends remaining bullish. In the past week, it has risen by 1.1%. Continuous buying by institutions and large enterprises increasing their Bitcoin holdings has further boosted market confidence. However, influenced by the historical pattern of "selling upon good news," the market subsequently experienced a brief consolidation.Markus Thielen's analysis suggests that with Bitcoin's dominance maintaining above 60%, some altcoins are quietly bottoming out under fundamental catalysts, particularly privacy coins and RWA infrastructure-related projects that are worth paying close attention to. Additionally, the White House advisor's hints at upcoming announcements regarding national strategic reserves and other market news are reinforcing bullish sentiment.

Multiple data points indicate that $80,000 is the next target for Bitcoin. Bitcoin rose 2.52% on Friday after holding support at the 100-day exponential moving average (100-EMA). Meanwhile, buying volume in the spot market increased, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) reaching 11,500 BTC, the highest level since February 17.BTC futures activity is also heating up, with open interest rising 6.64% to 257,000 BTC, indicating new positions are being established. After testing the daily trend over the past two days, Bitcoin rebounded from the 100-day EMA. This pushed the price up 2.52% to $78,800 on Friday, maintaining a solid short-term upward trend. The 100-day EMA, currently acting as dynamic support on the daily chart, suggests that higher time frame charts remain bullish. Spot demand is also strengthening. The CVD tracking net buys and net sells in the spot market reached 11,500 BTC, a new high since February 17, indicating that buyers have absorbed supply during the recent pullback.Derivatives positions are expanding in sync with prices, showing new participants entering the market. Over the past 24 hours, total open interest rose 6.64% to 257,000 BTC, indicating that new positions are being established while Bitcoin consolidates below $80,000. This follows a recent liquidation of about 9,000 BTC in leverage, suggesting that excess positions have been cleared as the leveraged market rebuilds. Futures volume has returned to 98,300 BTC, signaling a return of net buying pressure. However, it remains below the levels seen during the pullback on April 27. Meanwhile, liquidity continues to accumulate in the $78,000 to $80,000 range, with about $2.1 billion in short positions facing risk, which could trigger a short squeeze near this key level.Institutional activity is also leaning supportive. The 30-day change in OTC balances has dropped to about -20,700 BTC, comparable to levels in March 2025, with the decline in balances indicating that BTC is flowing out of over-the-counter markets, reducing the immediately available supply. ETF fund flows show a similar pattern, with ETF inflows in April reaching $1.97 billion.

According to Yu Jin monitoring, after making a profit of 68.47 million dollars from going long half a month ago, the "Hyperliquid's largest long position leader" has started to go long on ETH again on a large scale.He has currently opened long positions of 90,000 ETH (203 million dollars) through 3 addresses, and he has already become the largest long position holder on Hyperliquid, with an average opening price of 2,265 dollars for his ETH positions.

According to Crowdfund Insider, Ripple and the digital asset trading platform Bullish announced an expansion of their long-term partnership, with Bullish's Bitcoin options market opening to Ripple Prime institutional clients.According to the announcement from both parties, this integration will allow Ripple Prime users to directly access Bullish's regulated BTC options market. Bullish stated that its platform is currently the second largest cryptocurrency settlement Bitcoin options market in the world by open interest and supports spot, perpetual contracts, and futures trading.In addition, both parties revealed that OKX has reached a strategic partnership with Ripple to introduce the stablecoin RLUSD (Ripple USD) in the compliant market. Ripple Prime, as one of the largest non-bank prime brokers globally, has exceeded a clearing scale of $30 trillion in 2025 and can provide multi-asset brokerage, clearing, and financing services.

Bitcoin fell below $76,000 after failing to break through $80,000, with uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the macroeconomic situation unsettling the market.Meanwhile, technical indicators and on-chain data provide mixed signals regarding whether BTC can sustain this round of rebound. Bitcoin recorded a 30% recovery after hitting a low below $60,000 on February 6, but it stalled under selling pressure in the supply zone between $78,000 and $80,000. This range also coincides with the current 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the significance of this resistance level.Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, stated that the current pullback is "typical behavior" ahead of the FOMC meeting. He added, "I believe we are still in a phase of strong market conditions." On the support side, Bitcoin has tested the support level at $75,500, which also serves as the lower boundary of the 20-day EMA, 100-day EMA, and an upward channel.Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data shows that direct resistance is around $78,000, where investors hold 335,650 BTC; the average purchase price of about 298,560 BTC is $75,500, forming a key support level.On the on-chain front, Glassnode data indicates that the Bitcoin market exhibits "a coexistence of bullish momentum and cautious sentiment." The spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) rose from $18.3 million to $54.8 million, with an increase of nearly 200% over the past week, reflecting strong bullish sentiment among market participants. However, spot trading volume decreased by 13.8% from $6.95 billion a week ago to $5.99 billion, "indicating a reduction in market activity." During the same period, the number of daily active addresses fell by 1.6%, showing a more subdued network participation.

VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush wrote an analysis stating that Bitcoin has shown two historically bullish signals: negative funding rates and a decline in hash rate concentration, while volatility has cooled down.As tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, Bitcoin's realized volatility dropped from 56% to 41%, while the 7-day average funding rate turned negative to -1.8%, marking the lowest level since 2023.Historically, negative funding rates typically indicate strong future returns: since 2020, the average 30-day return for Bitcoin during periods of negative funding rates has been +11.5%, compared to an overall return of +4.5%, with a hit rate as high as 77%. Funding rates below -5% have brought a +19.4% return over a 30-day period.Additionally, hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile in the past 30 days, marking the most concentrated decline since the mining ban in 2021. In the last 7 instances of hash rate decline, Bitcoin's price increased 6 times after 90 days, with a median increase of +37.7%.

Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is currently showing bullish signals, with its Vector framework triggering a clear signal. Among them, a momentum indicator above 0.5 is considered bullish, while below -0.5 is considered bearish, and the current value is 1; meanwhile, the risk index has completely reset to 0.Glassnode states that from the blue shaded area in the chart, it can be seen that after this signal is triggered, the price has historically corresponded to significant upward trends and provided avoidance references during market downturns.

Glassnode tweeted that the whales on Hyperliquid have been anticipating a price breakthrough in this range. Over the past two months, their confidence and long positions have continued to increase, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among large perpetual contract traders.

According to monitoring by Hyperinsight, after the S&P 500 index surged to a new high last week, it has tested the peak three times in a row, with the amplitude gradually narrowing, accompanied by a continuous rise in the bottom support range. The S&P 500 contract on the Hyperliquid platform fell below $7,100 during the pre-market trading session, currently reported at $7,090.The largest long position on the platform for the S&P 500 currently has a scale of $66.28 million, with an average opening price of $6,891, opened on April 10, and the current floating profit still reaches $1.9 million, with no reduction in position during the holding period.It is reported that this address was previously the "largest short" whale for ZEC, holding a long-term bearish view on several altcoins in the crypto market. Currently, the largest position in the crypto portfolio is a short position in HYPE, with a scale of $7.76 million, an average price of $36.91, and a current floating loss of $760,000.

According to CoinDesk, the Bitcoin Coinbase premium index has been positive for 14 consecutive days since April 9, marking the longest bullish record since BTC reached its historical high of over $126,000 in 2025.As the preferred exchange for institutional investors in the United States, Coinbase's sustained positive premium indicates that U.S. institutions such as corporate treasuries, hedge funds, and ETFs are actively buying BTC.

Cryptoonchain has released data on social media indicating that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Ethereum Taker buy-sell ratio on Binance has risen to 1.018, reaching its highest level since the beginning of 2023. A ratio above 1 indicates that the active buying volume significantly exceeds the active selling volume.This data highlights the aggressive demand in the derivatives market and the strong return of bullish sentiment. If this momentum continues, it will build a solid fundamental basis for mid-term price increases.