bullish

Data shows that the annualized 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin has fallen below 40%, reaching its lowest level since October 5. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee's postponement of discussions on the market structure bill has become one of the main focuses of the crypto market this week. Some analysts warn that if the bill fails to pass, it could trigger a crypto winter, while the net inflow of U.S.-listed spot ETFs reached $1.81 billion this week, marking the largest single-week inflow since October.Deribit executive Sidrah Fariq stated that the current market sentiment remains cautious but constructive, and a clear bullish catalyst may be needed to achieve the next phase of upward movement. The market is waiting for a clear catalyst and additional positive factors to realize a sustained breakout.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the "largest on-chain gold bull" trader is currently long 1,500 PAX Gold (PAXG) tokens with 5x leverage, with an average entry price of $4,415.46, realizing a floating profit of $271,000; and is long xyz:SILVER (pegged to the silver price) with 10x leverage, with an average entry price of $78.879, realizing a floating profit of $484,000.In addition, this address is also highly leveraged long on a basket of on-chain US stock tokens, including Apple, Intel, Oracle, AMD, and Palantir.

Cryptanalysis expert Willy Woo posted on the X platform expressing a bullish outlook for Bitcoin's performance from late January to February, as the current internal investor flow model indicates that the market has been steadily strengthening since bottoming out at the end of December last year. However, prices typically need 2-3 weeks to reflect this change.Additionally, the liquidity of derivatives in the futures market is returning after months of silence, similar to the situation in mid-2021, which led to the second peak of the previous cycle. At this stage, Bitcoin needs to challenge the price range of $98,000 to $100,000, and if it breaks through this level, the performance of the resistance at the all-time high (ATH) should be observed.However, Willy Woo remains bearish for the entire year of 2026, as from a more macro perspective, liquidity flow has been weakening relative to price momentum since January 2025. If a significant influx of spot liquidity occurs in the coming months to break the downward trend, it may change his outlook. Currently, the bear market has not been confirmed, as indicated by the increasing negative fund outflows from Bitcoin, which is a lagging indicator of the cycle's peak.

According to Arkham data, at 06:10, 50 BTC (worth approximately $4.52 million) were transferred from Cumberland DRW to Bullish.com. Subsequently, Cumberland DRW transferred the remaining 19.99988732 BTC to another address (starting with bc1q8s3h3...).

According to Cointelegraph, data shows that Bitcoin's weekly relative strength index (Weekly RSI) is continuously breaking through. This indicator measures the "overbought" or "oversold" levels of BTC/USD at specific levels, and its downward trend began in 2025. It has now broken through a 3-month downtrend line and is holding above the breakout line, increasing bullish signals.According to trend analysis, Bitcoin's price may reach between $103,000 and $105,000 in the next 3-4 weeks, while selling pressure will weaken as Bitcoin attempts to consolidate the $90,000 support level.

Hyperbot data shows that "Strategy Opponent" has shifted from bearish to bullish. After closing multiple short positions related to various cryptocurrencies, it has opened new long positions in BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and XPL. After several rounds of rolling increases, the current position size is approximately 120 million dollars.

Binance Research pointed out in its cryptocurrency market report that despite the Federal Reserve's easing policies, the cryptocurrency market continues to decline due to cautious investor sentiment. However, as asset management companies continue to increase their holdings, the market dominance of Bitcoin and Ethereum is steadily strengthening. January may become a turning point for bearish momentum, as investors consider reallocating from overvalued asset classes back into cryptocurrencies.In 2025, driven by factors such as monetary easing, AI demand, and a shift towards "commodity control," metals emerged as a standout asset class. Although Bitcoin also benefited from similar macro-positive factors, its performance in the fourth quarter showed divergence due to a lack of "strategic asset premium." However, this divergence may be temporary: as U.S. legislation pushes to institutionalize strategic Bitcoin reserves and potentially shifts from holding seized assets to active fiscal procurement, the valuation framework for Bitcoin is expected to realign with that of strategic metals.Market participants expect that due to tariff shocks, a weak labor market, and a leadership shift towards dovish policies, easing measures will accelerate in 2026, while demanding higher long-term premiums to compensate for "fiscal dominance" and the impending debt pressure exceeding $50 trillion. The steepening yield curve indicates that the market does not endorse the Federal Reserve's "soft landing" narrative, creating an excellent opportunity for Bitcoin to benefit from both the influx of short-term cheap liquidity and the erosion of long-term fiat credit.Since their launch, altcoin ETFs have mostly attracted net inflows, accumulating over $2 billion, with XRP and SOL leading the way, while other assets contributed smaller but steady inflows. In contrast, since October, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have consistently experienced net outflows, highlighting the divergence in marginal demand as market momentum slows.Although it is still in the early stages, the approval of more altcoin ETFs and ongoing inflows may increasingly impact liquidity distribution, especially if broader market inflows accelerate again. In 2025, six newly launched stablecoins surpassed a market capitalization of $1 billion. As stablecoins continue to be adopted globally, their related metrics are increasingly becoming important indicators of global financial activity.

According to observations from Gate Research Institute, this Friday will see approximately $2 billion in concentrated BTC and ETH options expiration, while the implied volatility (IV) for BTC and ETH remains at 43% and 61%, respectively, still within a recent low range. Over the past week, the 25-Delta Skew for BTC and ETH has shown a low-level repair and negative bias convergence trend, with the short-term (7D) improvement being the most significant, reflecting a noticeable cooling in short-term downside protection demand. Meanwhile, large trades buying BTC-300126-100000-C have accumulated approximately 3,000 BTC, with a net premium expenditure of about $3.2 million, indicating that mainstream funds are more inclined to position themselves with bullish structural strategies above key support levels.Gate has exclusively launched a convenient options trading tool—rolling sell options product, which assists users in automatically and continuously selling options within a set period. Users can customize Delta/Strike contract selection, expiration date settings (T+1/T+2/T+3), selling price execution methods, quantities, and optional take-profit and stop-loss parameters. The strategy will automatically execute opening positions daily and seamlessly transition to the next period after expiration, achieving fully automated operation. This feature supports clear risk indicator displays, margin estimates, expected trading paths, and other auxiliary information to help users manage strategy execution more intuitively.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, a whale (0x49c8e) is bullish on the market and has opened new long positions in ETH. The current holdings are as follows:40x leverage long 50.21 BTC, entry price $91,932.4, floating profit $9,000;25x leverage long 1,912.22 ETH, entry price $3,247.31, floating loss $35,600;10x leverage long 726 million kPEPE, entry price $0.005735, floating profit $775,000.

Analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta stated that gold prices continue to be supported by geopolitical tensions and weak U.S. data, with bullish momentum remaining solid. However, Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report may pose a challenge to this. Although the credibility of the previous report was questionable due to issues related to the government shutdown, this data should provide a clearer economic picture.If the data is strong, it could lead to a significant pullback in gold prices, as traders may delay expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the Federal Reserve; conversely, if the data is weak, it should continue to support gold prices upward. Additionally, the U.S. Supreme Court has set Friday as the opinion release day, which may result in a ruling on Trump's tariff policy. If the tariff measures are overturned, the alleviation of stagflation risks could lead to a decline in gold prices. On the other hand, if the tariffs remain unchanged, while it may not trigger significant fluctuations, it will still support the upward trend in gold prices.

The "hardcore bull" whale (0x10a3c) address added long positions in ETH and BTC 4 hours ago. Currently, he holds fully leveraged long positions in multiple assets: 500 BTC (approximately $46.78 million), 134,278 SOL (approximately $18.49 million), 5,000 ETH (approximately $16.14 million), 4.95 billion PUMP (approximately $12.08 million), 19.04 million FARTCOIN (approximately $8.40 million), and 14,154 ZEC (approximately $7.22 million), with unrealized profits exceeding $35 million.

According to Bloomberg, the Bitcoin options market shows that traders are once again focusing on the $100,000 price level. As market optimism rises, investors are expected to return to crypto assets after the significant downturn in the crypto market in the fourth quarter.Data from Deribit, a derivatives trading platform under Coinbase Global Inc., indicates that the number of open contracts in the Bitcoin options market is most concentrated in contracts expiring on January 30 with a strike price of $100,000. Its nominal total value is more than double that of the second most popular options contract (a $80,000 put option expiring on the same day).Jake Ostrovskis, head of over-the-counter trading at Wintermute, stated, "While the scale is not huge, the direction is consistent—this is based on the large positions at the $100,000 strike price that emerged last week. There is still some bearish premium in the current curve, but it has softened significantly. Therefore, I believe the market no longer seems to expect the most pessimistic downside scenario, and the situation is stabilizing slightly."This marks a significant difference in market sentiment compared to the crypto crash at the end of 2025, when the spot market faced continuous selling, and the downside protection premium presented in the form of expensive put options soared. Satraj Bambra, CEO of the mixed trading platform Rails, believes, "It is not impossible to retest the $100,000 to $106,000 range, which is common in bearish structures. For Bitcoin to turn bullish, it needs to reclaim and hold above $106,000 on a weekly basis to attempt to challenge the historical highs again."

According to HyperInsight monitoring, the "PEPE Maximum Long" whale on Hyperliquid is currently long on 2,008,865,090 kPEPE (approximately 13.86 million USD) with 3x leverage, with a single coin floating profit of 2.05 million USD.Previously, this address had only completed 3 transactions, all of which ended with losses, accumulating a total loss of nearly 490,000 USD.

According to observations from Gate Research Institute, approximately $2.1 billion worth of BTC and ETH options will be settled this Friday, while the implied volatility (IV) for BTC and ETH has dropped to 43% and 60%, respectively, indicating a cooling in market pricing for short-term volatility. From the recent week’s BTC 25-Delta skew trend, the overall skew across various maturities has been oscillating upwards, with negative values converging, reflecting a moderation in market pricing for downside risks. The ETH skew remains overall negative but is continuously converging. Meanwhile, the largest block trade in the market was: buying BTC-300126-100000-C, with a total transaction of approximately 3,225 BTC and a net premium expenditure of about $3.05 million, indicating that mainstream capital is more inclined to position a bullish structure above key support levels.Gate has exclusively launched a convenient options trading tool—rolling sell options product, which assists users in automatically and continuously selling options within a set period. Users can customize Delta/Strike contract selections, expiration date settings (T+1/T+2/T+3), selling price execution methods, quantities, and optional take-profit and stop-loss parameters. The strategy will automatically execute opening positions daily and seamlessly transition to the next period after expiration, achieving full automation. This feature supports clear risk indicator displays, margin estimates, expected trading paths, and other auxiliary information to help users manage strategy execution more intuitively.

According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the "bullish" whale (0x90924) closed a 40x leveraged long position of 150 BTC (approximately 13.18 million USD) 10 minutes ago, and is currently still holding a long position of 17.53 million USD in a basket of altcoins with an average leverage of 8x, including ETH, SOL, SUI, AAVE, HYPE, PUMP, XPL, and ASTER, with an overall floating profit of 65,000 USD.

Chinese cryptanalysis expert Banmuxia stated on social media, "It is no longer appropriate to be firmly bullish on Bitcoin at the moment, but there is no need to be overly bearish in the next 1-2 months. There may be a wave of adjustment around March or April next year.If there is a significant outflow of ETF funds, a sharp decline may occur, and Bitcoin could drop below $80,500 or even fall to $71,000, but this is a low-probability event. Currently, the volatility of Bitcoin has narrowed to the extreme, and it will soon break out in a direction."

This Friday, approximately $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire, marking the largest options expiration day in Bitcoin's history. Analysis indicates that the scale of this expiration is enormous and overall leans bullish. The maximum pain point (the price level at which option buyers experience the largest losses and sellers gain the most) is $96,000, which will reinforce the upward price trend.

According to HyperInsight monitoring, in the past 10 hours, Huang Licheng has continuously increased his ETH long position by 475 ETH in the price range of approximately $2932 to $2942, increasing his position size by about $1.4 million. Subsequently, he placed sell orders in the range of $2960 to $3125 for partial profit-taking, and some of these orders have already been partially filled.Monitoring shows that this address has been holding ETH long positions since December 17, frequently engaging in high selling and low buying while rolling over positions. Currently, his ETH long position size has increased from $13.2 million to $21.62 million, with an average price of $2978, resulting in an unrealized loss of about $110,000 (approximately 13%), and a liquidation price of $2870. In addition, his previously held HYPE and ZEC long positions have now all been closed.