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BTC $71,927.10 -2.51%
ETH $1,979.67 -1.99%
BNB $689.64 -4.70%
XRP $1.30 -3.12%
SOL $80.53 -2.64%
TRX $0.3483 -0.02%
DOGE $0.0997 -0.93%
ADA $0.2298 -3.01%
BCH $283.20 -6.76%
LINK $8.98 -2.41%
HYPE $73.70 +8.71%
AAVE $80.65 -2.34%
SUI $0.8707 -3.34%
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options

The House Oversight Committee's insider trading investigation into Kalshi and Polymarket affects Robinhood and Coinbase, while the SEC approves Nasdaq to launch cash-settled Bitcoin index options on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange

According to BBX data, the pressure from market regulation suddenly intensified over the weekend, and institutional-level crypto derivatives product lines expanded simultaneously. The core dynamics are as follows:On May 22, James Comer (Republican, Kentucky), Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, officially issued investigation letters to Kalshi (privately held) and Polymarket (privately held), initiating a formal congressional investigation into insider trading on prediction market platforms. The investigation focuses on two suspicious bets: one betting on the early capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, and another betting on the direction of the Iranian conflict. Both transactions recorded unusually large amounts just hours before the related events were made public. According to media reports, the Wisconsin Attorney General has recently listed Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: $HOOD), along with Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, as defendants, accusing them of providing unlicensed sports betting services in Wisconsin. This is the latest escalation of the prediction market facing legal challenges in 13 states to congressional scrutiny. Both Kalshi and Polymarket stated their willingness to cooperate with the committee's investigation, asserting that their platforms have robust anti-insider trading mechanisms.On May 23, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved a proposal submitted by Nasdaq, Inc. (NASDAQ: $NDAQ) to launch cash-settled Bitcoin index options on its Philadelphia Stock Exchange, which does not involve physical delivery of Bitcoin. This product will allow institutional investors to hedge or invest in Bitcoin price fluctuations through standardized options contracts, filling a market gap for cash-settled Bitcoin index derivatives on regulated exchanges in the U.S. The timing of the approval coincided with significant fluctuations in Bitcoin over the week (with a low of $74,500 and a high rebound to $77,800), reflecting the accelerating release of genuine demand for volatility management tools in the market.

Data: Bitcoin and Ethereum options with a nominal value of $1.88 billion are set to expire

According to Greeks.live, options expiration data shows that 21,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.66, a maximum pain point of $78,500, and a nominal value of $160 million; 129,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.92, a maximum pain point of $2,200, and a nominal value of $280 million.Analysis indicates that Bitcoin has ended a one-and-a-half-month rebound this week, but the market support remains strong. The market is relatively calm, with low attention; this week, less than 5% of BTC options are expiring, and similarly, only 5% of ETH options are expiring. The delivery volume for BTC is not large, with the maximum pain point close to the current price, resulting in a stronger Gamma/pin effect near delivery; the delivery volume for ETH is only half of last week’s, and the current price is below the maximum pain point. The brief increase in the proportion of ETH options this month has ended, and the short-term implied volatility is likely to decline after delivery.From the main options data, the Skew continues to decline slightly, with the implied volatility for major maturities significantly dropping compared to last week, with a decrease exceeding that of realized volatility, and the volatility risk premium has increased. The implied volatility for major Bitcoin maturities has fallen below 35%, while the implied volatility for major ETH maturities has fallen below 50%, with even lower levels in the short term. Block trades are primarily structured, with large whales continuously building short-term low-cost protective positions, and volatility expectations are low, leading to overall market activity being below expectations.

Data: Bitcoin spot and perpetual contract selling pressure surges, options market shifts to bearish protection

Glassnode stated that the signals from various Bitcoin derivatives markets are diverging, and the overall structure is beginning to weaken. A significant shift in selling pressure has been observed, with the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for spot trading plummeting by 848.7%. Nevertheless, spot trading volume has increased by 4.2%, indicating a rise in trading activity, but this may stem more from trading interest rather than bullish sentiment. Open interest has slightly decreased by 2.9%, reflecting a cautious attitude towards leverage in an uncertain environment. However, the funding rate paid by the long side has surged by 136.6%, showing a rebound in demand for long positions and an increase in bullish sentiment among traders. Yet, the CVD for perpetual contracts has sharply declined by 278.7%, highlighting significant selling pressure and indicating that bearish sentiment still dominates.The 25-Delta Skew for options has risen by 42.75%, as traders seek more downside protection, with the market clearly turning bearish. Meanwhile, open interest and volatility spreads for options have increased by 1.7% and 124.52% respectively, indicating heightened market participation and increased expectations for future price volatility. The MVRV of the US spot ETF has decreased by 6.1%, with net flows for the ETF deteriorating sharply, reflecting a decline in institutional confidence. However, ETF trading volume has risen by 7%. On-chain activity presents a mixed picture: the number of active addresses has decreased, while the adjusted transfer volume has increased, suggesting relatively low network usage, but large amounts of capital continue to move.Overall, as momentum, spot demand, and speculative positions weaken across the board, the Bitcoin market structure is beginning to soften. Options traders are increasingly hedging against downside risks, liquidity and profitability indicators continue to cool, and the market structure remains relatively stable, but stable liquidity and the strength of long-term holders still provide some resilience to the market.

ETF capital is driving a slow bull market with positive gamma, and the options rising star trader support program is now open

BTC IV 39%, ETH IV 55%; ETH Skew is at a critical turning point------the mid to long term stabilizes at +2 to +5, while the short term has repeatedly dropped to -10 but quickly returned to zero. If ETH stabilizes above $2,400, the short term turning positive will resonate with the mid to long term, confirming a shift from event hedging to upward chasing. The BTC/ETH GEX Term Structure shows that the near-month Gamma has clearly turned positive, with ETF inflows and Call accumulation driving a positive Gamma slow bull structure------under a Long Gamma environment for market makers, the short term is inclined towards high-level fluctuations and slow increases, with IV retreating. Bull Call Spread and selling Put strategies are dominant, but the far month retains negative Gamma reflecting ongoing tail hedging demand. In terms of block trades, 1,001.8 BTC 5/8 expiration $88K Calls were traded, and 14,288 ETH 5/15 expiration $2,600 Calls were traded, indicating clear bullish signals from institutions.Gate has launched the "Rising Star Trader Support Program" for options, with a total prize pool of $25,000 USDT. During the event, users can earn multiple rewards through options trading, inviting friends, and participating in KOL incubation camps: the highest reward for meeting trading volume standards can reach $3,000, and the highest commission for inviting can reach $2,000. Meanwhile, the platform also provides high-quality traders with 1-on-1 options hedging training, exclusive rate discounts, and traffic support, helping traders enhance their strategy capabilities and market influence, and providing a more competitive trading environment and growth opportunities for professional options users.

Bitcoin options indicate a bullish target price of rising to $115,000 by the end of the year

Bitcoin bulls have high expectations for the year-end options expiring on December 25, involving about $6 billion in funds. Since the year’s low of $60,130 on February 6, the BTC price has risen by 33%, which has largely driven the return of bullish sentiment in the market. However, the large number of call (buy) options with target prices pointing to $115,000 and above has also raised questions about whether the bulls are overly optimistic.The Deribit trading platform holds a 92% market share in December Bitcoin options open interest, reaching $5.5 billion. On Deribit, put (sell) options have decreased by 56% compared to call options, as crypto traders have traditionally favored bullish positions, with the put-call ratio typically skewed. Even so, the open interest for call options at $115,000 and above amounts to $1.85 billion, which is still a considerable size. However, the number of put options at $55,000 and below is also significant, with total open interest of $1 billion. This indicates that both sides are viewed as having a similar proportion of bets deemed unlikely to materialize, each accounting for about 50% of their respective open interest segments. If the bulls are seen as overly optimistic, the bears also seem to be equally extreme in their pessimism.The options skew indicator more clearly reflects professional traders' comfort levels regarding upside and downside price risks. Put options are trading at a 9% premium relative to equivalent call options, indicating moderate concern about Bitcoin's downside price volatility. Under neutral conditions, the skew indicator should be between -6% and +6%. According to derivatives indicators, investor optimism has not been materially affected during Bitcoin's rise to $80,000. Ultimately, the $1.85 billion in call options for December should not be interpreted as a signal of excessive confidence from the bulls.
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