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ZEC $330.12 -4.42%
BTC $75,172.96 +1.02%
ETH $2,339.48 +0.23%
BNB $629.66 +1.41%
XRP $1.44 +1.64%
SOL $87.71 +3.06%
TRX $0.3236 -0.96%
DOGE $0.0978 +2.20%
ADA $0.2552 +2.77%
BCH $447.80 +1.64%
LINK $9.49 +2.50%
HYPE $43.38 -4.41%
AAVE $114.98 +8.38%
SUI $0.9877 +1.76%
XLM $0.1675 +4.25%
ZEC $330.12 -4.42%

options

Analysis shows that Bitcoin is strengthening alongside the US stock market, but the options market still bets on downside risks

Bitcoin rose to about $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital pointed out that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot trading, rather than a broad recovery in risk appetite.Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest has decreased, indicating that short sellers are still increasing hedges rather than passively closing positions. The options market is also leaning towards caution: short-term implied volatility is sluggish, with one-month volatility lower than three-month volatility, and the risk reversal indicator shows that the market's demand for downside protection is higher than for upside bets, indicating that traders are more inclined to pay for potential declines rather than chase upward movements. QCP believes this is more of a "bounce" rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite, with gold still near high levels, indicating that safe-haven demand remains. Institutions point out that the current market is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire and "emotional repair," rather than a core risk being alleviated. Additionally, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315, combined with on-chain transaction volumes and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, indicating signs of capital rotating towards high β assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this round of increase.

Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum options with a nominal value of 1.97 billion dollars are set to expire today

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X that today 23,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.88, a maximum pain point of $70,000, and a nominal value of $1.6 billion. 176,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.04, a maximum pain point of $2,150, and a nominal value of $370 million.The current rebound in the crypto market has been declared over, with Bitcoin briefly falling below the $70,000 threshold. In the past week, $75,000 has often been mentioned as a key resistance level, with 5% of options expiring at this price by the end of the month. The final breakthrough failed, falling back to around $70,000. Next Friday is the quarterly settlement, and from the options market data, $75,000 is the price with the most concentrated positions, making it an absolute resistance level. The lower levels of $65,000/$62,000/$60,000 are all areas of dense positions and can be considered as support for a decline.This week, the implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV) of major expiration options have remained basically unchanged, with the main expiration IV for BTC at 50% and for ETH at 70%. The RV continues to decline, causing the volatility risk premium (VRP) to rise continuously. Only options accounting for 5% of the total positions are expiring, continuing to hit record lows. Despite the volatility, Bitcoin's trading activity remains at extremely low levels. Due to the price decline, the skew has decreased across the board, and the market is still in a bear phase, with bullish forces being very weak.
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