Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/11)

I. Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Sector:

l Trump-related stocks drop before market open; polls show 63% of viewers believe Harris won the first debate

Trump-related stocks fell broadly in pre-market trading, with Trump Media & Technology Group down nearly 11% and Phunware down over 8%. Additionally, Bitcoin fell below $57,000, and several cryptocurrency-related stocks also declined in pre-market trading, with MARA Holdings, MicroStrategy, and CleanSpark down about 3.8%, and Riot Platforms and Coinbase down over 2%. Trump had previously shifted to openly support cryptocurrencies. Tesla fell over 1% in pre-market trading, with Musk expressing support for Trump and participating in his fundraising activities.

In news, U.S. Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Harris faced off against Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump in their first televised debate in Philadelphia. The debate lasted about 90 minutes, covering topics such as the U.S. economy, immigration, abortion, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the Israel-Palestine situation. Following the debate, a CNN-commissioned SSRS instant poll showed that 63% of viewers believed Harris outperformed Trump in Tuesday's presidential candidate debate.

(2) Web3 Sector:

l Trump and Harris did not mention cryptocurrencies during the presidential debate; Bitcoin price drops

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a slight decline on Wednesday, dropping about 1.5% to a trading price of $56,500. The highly anticipated presidential debate between U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump did not address cryptocurrency regulation. The debate covered a wide range of topics from abortion rights to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, leaving cryptocurrency enthusiasts and investors eager to understand the candidates' positions on digital assets. Now, the ripple effect of Bitcoin's decline has spread to the broader cryptocurrency market.

The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum, fell 1.2%, currently trading at $2,330. Data from CoinGecko shows that other popular altcoins also experienced significant drops, with Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (Doge) down 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively. Despite the drop, data indicates that institutional interest in cryptocurrencies remains strong, with spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording a substantial net inflow of $117 million.

2. Hot Events

Web3 Sector:

l U.S. House Financial Services Committee holds DeFi hearing to discuss positions for and against cryptocurrencies and DeFi

The U.S. House Financial Services Committee held a hearing titled "Decoding DeFi: Analyzing the Future of Decentralized Finance" on September 10, aimed at exploring emerging topics such as tokenization and how blockchain can be applied in the financial sector. Congressional representatives heard from five witnesses from both sides, discussing positions for and against cryptocurrencies and DeFi. Republican subcommittee chair French Hill stated that decentralized finance could change the structure and governance of current financial markets and transactions by replacing intermediaries with self-executing code. However, Democratic lawmakers, including Brad Sherman, disagreed, claiming that DeFi is primarily used for crime, evading sanctions, and tax evasion. Democratic lawmaker Maxine Waters mentioned the fraudulent token promotion related to the Trump family's DeFi project "World Liberty Financial." Mark Hays, a senior policy analyst at a U.S. financial reform organization, described the cryptocurrency and DeFi industry as highly volatile, filled with scams, and predatory, with investors facing significant financial losses, arguing that existing securities laws should apply to DeFi. Amanda Tuminelli, chief legal officer of the DeFi Education Fund, stated that traditional finance relies on intermediaries, while DeFi is open and accessible to anyone with an internet connection, exemplifying financial inclusion.

l OKX becomes the title sponsor of TOKEN2049 Singapore for three consecutive years

As part of the TOKEN2049 Singapore conference, OKX executives will participate in discussions, keynote speeches, and fireside chats during the event, inviting special guests throughout the week. On September 10, Web3 technology company OKX announced that it has become the title sponsor of TOKEN2049 Singapore, Asia's premier Web3 and cryptocurrency conference, for three consecutive years. The event will take place from September 18 to 19 at the Marina Bay Sands Convention Center.

3. Hot Narratives

Gas fees surged, reaching as high as 600 sats/vb, causing off-exchange prices to rise. According to the official introduction from the ProtocolCAT project, CAT Protocol is a new type of Bitcoin token protocol based on UTXO, called Covenant Attested Token (CAT). The protocol is verified by miners and uses smart contracts to manage token minting and transfers.

However, there is more than one CAT Protocol currently in the market; based on the information gathered, there are already three related protocols. Each has a considerable following, and the high popularity of ProtocolCAT may be due to its early launch, though it is difficult to predict how long this popularity will last.

4. Potential Catalysts

Multicoin's investment thesis on Drift

Our executive summary of the investment thesis for DRIFT is as follows:

1. Multicoin believes that the most successful derivatives DEX needs to be built on an L1 that issues other assets on-chain. We believe that application chain derivatives DEX will not win because they will never be as efficient as centralized exchanges (CEX) and cannot compete with other programs and assets on a universal chain. They cannot benefit from the ecosystem flywheel that exists on a universal L1.

2. Drift has a unique exchange structure that allows for three types of liquidity provision: Dynamic AMM (DAMM), Decentralized Central Limit Order Book (DLOB), and Just-In-Time (JIT). We have previously written about the trade-offs in the design space of derivatives DEX and believe that Drift has made the appropriate trade-offs.

3. Drift's core metrics (total trading volume for derivatives, spot, and swaps) have increased approximately 50 times year-over-year, while the protocol's market share in the derivatives DEX space has grown about 10 times during this period.

4. The Drift team is persistent, continuously launching new products and features. In addition to the derivatives DEX, they are also building a capital-efficient DeFi platform that is not limited to synthetic trading. We believe Drift can become a "super app" in DeFi because it can cross-sell trading products to users.

5. The adoption rate of Solana is growing rapidly, and we have witnessed a long-term growth trend for all Solana DeFi applications. Drift will disproportionately benefit from the significant growth of the ecosystem.

Multicoin believes that as users and liquidity continue to migrate to Drift and Solana, the Drift protocol is expected to further develop. Additionally, we believe that people in developing countries around the world wish to synthesize access to every asset, and DeFi derivatives are their most innovative and inclusive products.

II. Attention Value - Hot Projects

1. Social Media Highlights

Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July of this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for trading. Although recent declines in $ETH were caused by reduced income and whale exits, the market remains largely optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.

Key Projects:

· NEIRO

$NEIRO is an emerging meme coin, inspired by a Shiba Inu named Kabosu, adopted by a kindergarten teacher named Atsuko Sato in Japan. After Kabosu's passing, Sato posted on X platform that she had adopted another Shiba Inu named "ねいろ" just as Trump was speaking at a Bitcoin conference. The creator seized the moment, naming the token $Neiro, which is the English transliteration of "ねいろ." Almost simultaneously, the capitalized $NEIRO appeared. Subsequently, the $NEIRO token issued on Ethereum was accused of having significant wash trading, causing its market cap to drop. However, in September, OKX and Binance successively launched the $NEIRO contract, and with the push from the exchanges, $NEIRO rapidly surged over 6 times, while its competing product $Neiro began to fade away.

2. Smart Money Accumulation

· Smart Money Holdings

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. HUSBY (@HusbyApp /X)

HUSBY is a new project launched this week, utilizing biogas energy and advanced AI technology for biogas mining. Its mission is to provide an economically efficient and environmentally friendly solution for cryptocurrency mining, ensuring sustainability and profitability. The price has increased about 20% in three days, currently around $0.06.

2. FWOG (@solfwog /X)

$FWOG is a meme token based on the Solana chain, themed around frogs, continuing the animal style of well-known frog-themed tokens like PEPE and Bome. Its artistic style combines elements from famous anime IPs like "Dragon Ball," avoiding the issues of similarly named tokens while maintaining originality. The project has experienced two rug pulls but still managed to see its market cap soar to $99 million within a month, demonstrating strong resilience even amid an overall market downturn in August. The current number of holders has surpassed 13,000.

· Smart Money Inflows

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. VISTA (@ethervista /X)

Ethervista is a new type of decentralized exchange protocol designed to address the shortcomings of existing AMM models, such as short-term token price speculation and insufficient incentives for liquidity providers. On September 1, the Ethervista platform token $VISTA was launched, with an opening price of only about $0.036, which then surged to over $32, currently retreating to around $16. On September 9, the project announced on social platform X that it would soon launch the VISTA application, allowing users to create tokens and view the works of other creators. The current market cap of $VISTA has exceeded $16 million.

2. RBT (@RibbitOnSolana /X)

$RBT is a frog-themed meme coin based on the Ethereum blockchain, following the principles of fairness and transparency in its issuance, with no pre-mining, ICO, or private sales, ensuring that all users are on equal footing when acquiring $RBT.

III. Attention Value - Sector Rotation

1. Hot Sectors

Source: Dune, Dot Labs

Source: Dune, Dot Labs

2. Internal Sector

Source: Dune, Dot Labs