Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/21)
After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, U.S. stocks reached an all-time high, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that the global economy faces serious challenges, similar to the pressures of the Great Depression in the last century. In her speech at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, Lagarde mentioned that the current global economy is affected by factors such as "economic nationalism," the collapse of global trade, and technological advancements, which bear similarities to the situation in the 1920s.1. Attention Value - Market Highlights
1. Market Trends
(1) Macroeconomic Environment:
Lagarde warns that the global economy faces Great Depression pressures, emphasizing the need for central banks to enhance their response capabilities
U.S. stocks reached an all-time high after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that the global economy is facing serious challenges, akin to the pressures of the Great Depression in the last century. In her speech at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, Lagarde mentioned that the current global economy is influenced by factors such as "economic nationalism," the collapse of global trade, and technological advancements, which bear similarities to the situation in the 1920s.
She pointed out that the current pandemic, European conflicts, and the energy crisis are the most severe disruptions since the last century, permanently altering global economic activity. Although historically monetary policy has exacerbated economic crises, current policymakers are better equipped to respond to structural changes. Lagarde emphasized that the tools central banks use to maintain price stability have proven effective, particularly after interest rate hikes in 2022, which saw inflation rapidly decline, with the eurozone's annual inflation rate dropping from 10.6% in October 2022 to 2.2% in August 2023.
Nevertheless, she warned that globalization is under threat, supply chains are partially breaking down, and the market power of tech giants and the development of artificial intelligence will continue to challenge policymakers. She stated that uncertainty for central banks will remain high in the future and will be deeply examined in the upcoming strategic review.
(2) Web3 Sector:
SEC approves Bitcoin options listing, analysts expect to attract more investment
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently approved the listing of options contracts related to the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF applied for by Nasdaq, marking a significant hurdle cleared for Bitcoin options trading. Analysts noted that this move will attract more investors and bring higher liquidity to the ETF, with expectations that other similar options will soon be approved.
The SEC emphasized that this approval will allow investors to hedge Bitcoin positions in the options market to cope with its inherent volatility. The iShares Bitcoin Trust is the most liquid spot Bitcoin ETF, meeting the requirements for trading options. The SEC also stated that it will implement strict regulatory mechanisms to prevent market manipulation and ensure orderly trading.
Although the SEC has approved these contracts, they still require further approval from the options clearing corporation and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission before trading can commence. Currently, other exchanges are also applying to launch options products related to the iShares fund and other spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts believe that the SEC's decision is an important step for options listing, helping to enhance market activity and attract large-scale investments.
2. Hot Events
Macroeconomic Environment:
Qualcomm's rumored acquisition of Intel causes stock price volatility
Rumors of Qualcomm acquiring Intel have triggered market fluctuations. After the SEC approved Qualcomm's acquisition of Intel, Intel's stock price surged over 10% during intraday trading on September 20, reaching $23.12, before closing with a gain of 3.3%. Meanwhile, Qualcomm's stock price fell due to market reactions, with intraday losses expanding to 5.5%.
This acquisition discussion is the second exposure within two weeks, and analysts believe it may attract more investors and bring liquidity to related ETFs. Although the deal has not been finalized, insiders warn that if a transaction is reached, it will face regulatory scrutiny challenges.
Intel is currently in a significant crisis, with its recent financial report showing a sharp decline in revenue and plans to lay off about 15,000 employees. Executive departures and failed technology tests have also exacerbated the company's difficulties. To address these challenges, Intel is considering various self-rescue plans, including splitting its business and selling off certain assets.
Overall, Qualcomm's potential acquisition of Intel could not only reshape the market positions of both companies but also have far-reaching effects on the entire chip industry.
Web3 Sector:
Circle founder: Advancing IPO plans, intends to move headquarters to Wall Street next year
According to ChainCatcher, Cointelegraph reported that Circle founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire stated that they are advancing their initial public offering (IPO) plans and intend to move their headquarters to Wall Street in 2025.
It is reported that Circle applied for an IPO in January this year and is currently awaiting approval from the SEC.
3. Hot Narratives
Hemi Network is a modular Layer-2 protocol designed to provide exceptional scalability, security, and interoperability, powered by Bitcoin and Ethereum. Unlike other projects that view Bitcoin and Ethereum as independent ecosystems, Hemi sees them as components of a single super network, unlocking new programmability, portability, and potential.
Recently, Hemi Labs completed a $15 million financing round, co-led by Binance Labs, Breyer Capital, and Big Brain Holdings, with participation from Crypto.com, Jihan Wu, and others.
At the core of Hemi is the Hemi Virtual Machine (hVM), which integrates a complete Bitcoin node within the Ethereum Virtual Machine. Combined with the Hemi Bitcoin Kit (hBK), developers have a familiar and powerful platform to create Hemi decentralized applications (hApps).
To optimize network performance and security, Hemi employs a unique consensus mechanism called Proof-of-Proof (PoP). PoP miners are responsible for collecting critical network details and publishing them on Bitcoin, thereby linking Hemi's security directly to Bitcoin's mature system. This approach provides dual protection, leveraging Bitcoin's PoW system as the basis for resolving disputes and ensuring trustworthiness.
Hemi Network was co-founded by early Bitcoin developer Jeff Garzik and blockchain security pioneer Max Sanchez. Jeff Garzik has worked with Satoshi Nakamoto and has long been a core figure in the development and commercialization of Bitcoin technology, serving as a Bitcoin core developer for five years. Max Sanchez is the co-founder and CTO, who co-created the PoP protocol and led the design of a new protocol optimized for PoP. The team consists of nearly 30 members, most of whom are experienced developers.
Hemi Network launched an incentive testnet in July this year, allowing ordinary users to earn points by sharing invitation links. The mainnet launch is scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year.
4. Potential Catalysts
Jeff Park, Chief Strategy Officer at Bitwise Alpha, stated on X platform that the SEC's approval of BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF options trading will lead to a surge in Bitcoin prices. He believes this is the most significant advancement the cryptocurrency market could achieve, marking the first time Bitcoin's nominal value will be "partially banked" through ETF options. This decision will allow Bitcoin to gain synthetic nominal exposure in regulated markets, potentially leading to exponential growth.
Park pointed out that Bitcoin's unique volatility characteristics mean that when spot prices rise, volatility also increases, accelerating price increases. He mentioned that short gamma traders hedging may lead to gamma squeezes, further driving up Bitcoin prices.
In summary, the emergence of the Bitcoin ETF options market is the first regulatory leverage on a commodity with supply constraints in financial history, which could trigger a frenzied market reaction, but Bitcoin's decentralized nature ensures that its market will not be completely shut down.
2. Attention Value - Hot Projects
1. Social Media Highlights
Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains today. In July of this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for trading. Although the recent decline in $ETH is attributed to reduced revenue and whale exits, the market remains largely optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.
Key Projects:
· DOT
Polkadot ($DOT) is a cross-chain protocol designed to connect and secure different blockchains. It provides interconnectivity and interoperability between them, allowing independent chains to securely exchange messages and execute transactions without relying on trusted third parties. This allows for cross-chain transfer of data or assets between different blockchains and the development of cross-chain DApps using the Polkadot network. Recently, the project launched a mechanism called Agile Coretime, which will introduce a flexible block space model, replacing the traditional static auction system with a dynamic approach that adjusts resource availability based on demand.
2. Smart Money Accumulation
· Smart Money Holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Overview:
1. DOGGO (@DoggoEthDog /X)
$DOGGO originated from a tweet by the founder of Dogecoin, "what happened to poor doggo," accompanied by a picture of a dog, specifically a Shiba Inu living in China. Recently, the peak exchange AscendEX (formerly BitMax) launched $DOGGO.
2. $michi (@michionsolana /X)
$michi is a cryptocurrency based on the Solana blockchain, aiming to combine meme culture with a community-driven economic model. The design of $michi is inspired by a cute cat image, aiming to attract a broad user base, especially enthusiasts of meme culture.
· Smart Money Inflows
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Overview:
1. BURGER (@BTCCryptoBurger /X)
U.S. presidential candidate Trump purchased a cheeseburger using Bitcoin at a Bitcoin-themed bar, PubKey, near New York University, humorously calling it the "Crypto Burger," which quickly popularized the "burger BURGER" concept. The token $BURGER experienced a rapid rise and fall, then quickly surged again, going from a market cap of $5,000 to a peak of $5 million in just one morning.
2. tremp (@dolandtremp_sol /X)
Doland Tremp is a misspelled meme coin based on Solana, with TREMP being a parody token that misspells Donald Trump's name. After performing well in the first half of 2024, $TREMP and other political finance (PolitiFi) tokens are currently declining due to a lack of new holders entering the market, with $TREMP trading at nearly 90% below its peak total market cap.
3. Attention Value - Sector Rotation
1. Hot Sectors
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Internal Sector
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
