BTC Volatility Review (June 23 - June 30)

Key Indicators: (June 23, 4 PM Hong Kong Time -> June 30, 4 PM Hong Kong Time)

• BTC against USD increased by 5.1% (from $102k to $107.6k), ETH against USD increased by 6.9% (from $2,320 to $2,480)

• In the past few weeks, the prices have been trading in a narrow flag pattern (except for a brief breakout above $100k due to the Israel-Iran situation). Currently, it feels like the market is ready for a surge, just needing enough momentum to break through the strong resistance at $108.5k and then $112.5k. However, if we fail to break through, we may slowly return to the bottom of the flag pattern, but we will encounter trend support at $101k and stronger support at $98k. If these levels are further breached, we could see a significant drop in prices to $90k.

• We remain optimistic and believe there will be a surge to $125-130k to complete the entire long-term trend.

Market Themes

• After the easing of tense geopolitical situations, we experienced a very calm week with overall risk sentiment trending upwards. The market's focus has shifted to developments in the U.S. Trump announced the upcoming appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair and assured the market that he would "lower interest rates," leading the market to quickly price in rate cuts (20% probability of a rate cut in July, with 2-3 cuts expected by the end of the year). The U.S. stock market faced little resistance, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs. The market is clearly positioning for low volatility/risk investments ahead of the summer holiday and seems unconcerned about the upcoming trade tariff deadlines.

• Compared to the overall rising risk sentiment, the performance of the cryptocurrency market has been very calm. Bitcoin's recent strong correlation with Nasdaq has lagged, as the market has accumulated too much long gamma and placed a pile of sell orders in front of the local resistance at $108.5k-$109k. Smaller coins have also failed to join this wave of risk increase, with Solana stagnating ahead of the anticipated ETF issuance this Wednesday.

BTC ATM Implied Volatility

• Last week, actual volatility quickly diminished. This was mainly because spot prices returned to the comfortable range between $110k and $112k, where Bitcoin had previously stayed for over two months; meanwhile, the market has clearly accumulated a lot of long gamma, which has contributed to the price being confined within this range. Implied volatility has thus been significantly compressed, and for the first time this year, we saw daily volatility priced below 30, even as the implied volatility for March (expiring in September) approached below 40 points.

• The term structure is quite steep within a one-month expiration, with daily volatility set at 27-28 points for the next few days, but expected to rise to 40 points before the end of July. The longer-term term structure has flattened significantly, with the market completely losing consideration for a shift in actual volatility to a higher range, thus creating very attractive term trading opportunities.

BTC Skew/Kurtosis

• Last week, skew prices remained mostly flat, as there was no directional momentum in the spot market leading to a somewhat dull trading environment for skew. Short-term expiration dates still lean downward considering that actual volatility tends to be more aggressive during declines, while longer-term dates lean upward due to the market's lack of interest in downside Vega.

• Kurtosis initially remained flat but eventually declined. This was due to the accumulation of more long positions in the market, with many sellers continuously selling to fund their longs. However, considering the tendency for actual volatility to shift to higher regions and the high volatility of volatility, we believe that in this environment, one should seize the opportunity to buy kurtosis during declines (especially considering that actual volatility has been performing poorly locally).

Wishing everyone good luck this week!