SignalPlus

Geopolitics has once again become the focus of the market. Israel launched attacks on Iranian facilities, followed by Iran's retaliation, leading to a surge in oil prices and weakening market risk sentiment last Friday. The market is concerned about the risks of escalating conflict, particularly the possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz and potential U.S. intervention, which will affect oil prices during the peak driving season in the U.S. summer.

Last week, the market tested the support level of 99-101 thousand dollars but quickly rebounded back to the range of 105-106 thousand dollars, strongly suggesting that the price is about to attempt another upward breakthrough to a new high in the short term. If this breakthrough fails, the timing of this upward movement may be further delayed, and we may first return to the range of 90-95 thousand dollars...

The May non-farm payroll report was solid, with an increase of 139,000 jobs, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of 126,000. However, the new positions were mainly concentrated in the leisure and healthcare sectors, while there was a net loss in government and manufacturing jobs. The data details were somewhat weak, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.19% to 4.24%. If it weren't for the decline in the labor participation rate, the unemployment rate could have approached 4.6%.

In the past week, although Bitcoin has pulled back from its high, the price has mostly been consolidating and has not affected the overall upward trend. We still believe that the market will attempt to break upward again in the coming weeks or months, which could push us towards the final target of 120-130k USD.

Earlier this month, Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong first introduced the little-known acronym "TACO," which stands for Trump Always Chickens Out, intended to mock the president for often backing down after initially presenting a tough stance.

After breaking through the previous all-time high, the price of Bitcoin first rose to $111.9k, but then fell below the resistance level of $108.25-109.75k due to Trump's tariff news and significant selling pressure. However, it has since been fluctuating within a narrow range. Based on the current situation, we tend to believe that the market will gradually rise in a relatively stable manner (with some local fluctuations possible).

After announcing a suspension of additional tariffs on China, President Trump suddenly posted on social media that the EU trade negotiations were "making no progress," and therefore he "suggested imposing a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, 2025." Trump pointed out that the EU has "strong trade barriers, value-added taxes, ridiculous corporate fines, non-monetary trade barriers, currency manipulation, and unfair and unreasonable lawsuits against American companies."

The market intends to test the resistance level of 99-100 thousand dollars and successfully breaks through, bringing us to 101-110 thousand dollars, and surprisingly encounters little resistance. Overall, although the increase throughout the week is considerable, the actual volatility remains low, as there are sellers hedging from profit-taking and long gamma positions above the price, resulting in a very orderly price movement when rising.