volatility

Glassnode published that the key price level for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter is still being held. The institution previously pointed out in the "Charting Crypto" report with Colin Basco and the Coinbase Institutional team that BTC faces resistance in the range of $87,000 to $87,800. Since then, the Bitcoin price has been blocked in that range and continues to oscillate and consolidate below.Glassnode believes that if Bitcoin breaks through the current consolidation range, the market may experience significant volatility, but there is still a large area of selling pressure around $90,000 above.

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute today updated its market report, stating that multiple events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the U.S. midterm elections, and third-quarter earnings reports are approaching, and the current narrow trading range of Bitcoin may soon be broken. If Bitcoin breaks above $87,000, it may confirm an upward breakout; if it effectively falls below $82,500, the price could further dip to just above $70,000.On the macro front, the overall CPI in the U.S. rose from 3.4% in August to 3.7%, with core CPI increasing by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, intensifying concerns about energy prices transmitting to core inflation. Wintermute pointed out that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects more of a withdrawal of funds from crowded AI growth stock trades rather than an improvement in inflation expectations. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at its meeting on October 28, but if hawkish signals are released, it may strengthen expectations for a rate hike in December, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and suppressing risk assets.Internally, the cryptocurrency market shows a trend of funds concentrating on mainstream coins. The report indicates that Bitcoin's weekly decline was 1.99%, the Nasdaq index fell by 5.52%, and altcoins overall dropped by 5.69%. Funds continue to flow into BTC and ETH while withdrawing from most altcoins, with high beta and small-cap tokens facing more significant pressure. Wintermute believes that the current risk-reward ratio for mainstream coins is relatively more attractive, and a broad rally in altcoins may need to wait for Bitcoin to strengthen further.Wintermute also noted that the current implied volatility is relatively low, and with the Federal Reserve's decision and midterm elections approaching, the market may be underestimating the risk of subsequent volatility. The Federal Reserve's decision on October 28 will be a key catalyst in the near term, and the performance of AI-related companies' earnings reports will also influence the market's judgment on computing power investments, financing costs, and business models.

According to Barchart, the daily Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin have formed one of the tightest widths in the past two and a half years. This indicates that Bitcoin is "consolidating and tightening," possibly preparing for a major market movement.Bollinger Bands are a commonly used indicator in technical analysis, consisting of three lines: the middle band, which is usually the 20-day simple moving average (SMA); the upper band, which is the middle band + 2 times the standard deviation; and the lower band, which is the middle band - 2 times the standard deviation. Historical experience shows that after a significant tightening of the Bollinger Bands, a directional breakout (either upward or downward) often follows. It is common for volatility to suddenly expand from an extremely low state.

Cryptocurrency asset management company Grayscale posted on X: Bitcoin's volatility has decreased over the past decade as the asset has matured, with relevant background including deeper liquidity, institutional participation, and regulation.Grayscale stated that over the past year, Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to 43%, down from 81% five years ago, and is now within the volatility range of S&P 500 constituents. The company also mentioned that for investors who are already accustomed to holding highly volatile stocks, Bitcoin's price fluctuations may not be as daunting as previously assumed.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Elon Musk Tweet Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "340-359" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 63.95% an hour ago to the current 48.75% (a fluctuation of 15.2%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "US-Iran Ceasefire Continuation" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "October 31" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 84.5% an hour ago to the current 53% (a fluctuation of 31.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Semiconductor analyst Jukan shares a commentary translated into English by him, authored by a salesperson from a local Chinese sell-side institution. The individual states: In mid to late September, hardware quickly transitioned into a downward wave, with China and South Korea adjusting first, experiencing deeper declines and longer durations, followed by Japan, Taiwan, and the semiconductor ETF SOXX weakening subsequently; there is significant divergence in the market regarding whether AI is entering a mid-cycle collapse, but there is less controversy about the industry still advancing.The individual summarizes the views of interviewed investors: High long-term interest rates in the U.S., capital expenditures beginning to rely on external financing and competing for funds in the market, multi-layered leverage accumulation, and tight funding are the main reasons for this round of decline, with companies like CoreWeave experiencing a noticeable deterioration in financing structure and cost burden. Model invocation prices are decreasing, but capital expenditures and supply chain costs are difficult to reduce quickly, making short-term investment returns hard to realize. ASML and TSMC's guidance this season is strong, but near-term pressures cannot be ruled out; the bullwhip effect and differences in value chain levels may cause volatility to be greater than expected.The individual also mentions that use cases beyond coding are emerging in scenarios such as SaaS and AI drug development, which may gradually alleviate investment return concerns and expand demand. His personal judgment: Before more evidence emerges, the current situation resembles a high-volatility phase rather than a collapse that has already begun; the decline may not yet be over, and hardware leadership may give way to applications. Even if control of both houses changes in the midterm elections, the impact may mainly be limited to constraints on certain data center projects, and the U.S. earnings season needs to verify the performance of large technology companies.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event "Number of Elon Musk Tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "260-279" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 32.95% an hour ago to the current 15.5% (a fluctuation of 17.45%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market for the event "US-Iran Ceasefire Lasting," the sub-market "October 24" saw the probability of the "Yes" option fluctuate dramatically, soaring from 50% an hour ago to the current 87% (a fluctuation of 37%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event on Polymarket titled "Number of Elon Musk Tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026," the "Yes" option in the sub-market "340-359" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 77.6% an hour ago to the current 59.6% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the predicted market on Polymarket for the "Bears vs. Packers" event shows that the "Bears" option in the sub-market "Bears vs. Packers" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 51.5% an hour ago to the current 24.5% (a fluctuation of 27%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the liquidity of tokenized stocks is lower than that of traditional stocks, and their volatility is also higher.Watcher Guru cited the IMF's relevant statement, saying that compared to traditional stocks, tokenized stocks "have lower liquidity and greater volatility." This statement points to the IMF's assessment of the market structure of tokenized assets, involving comparisons of trading depth, price fluctuations, and traditional securities markets.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin has entered a phase where selling pressure has significantly increased. Recently, the rebound pushed Bitcoin's price above $85,000, and the Seller Exhaustion indicator has signaled that potential selling pressure is rising.This indicator combines profit supply and volatility to identify risk and calm phases, making it highly valuable for short-term reference. This rise has been quite sudden, especially reflected in short-term holders. The current level of the indicator is approaching the threshold seen at multiple local tops in this cycle. Analysts indicate that it is necessary to observe whether demand can improve and whether volatility converges to suppress potential pullbacks and allow the indicator to return to normal.

Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has experienced 10 "3 standard deviation" trading days, exceeding the 8 times seen throughout the bear market of 2018. Although Bitcoin's annualized volatility has decreased from 84% in 2018 to about 46%, extreme market conditions still occur frequently relative to recent price volatility levels. "3 standard deviation" is used to measure the extent to which prices deviate from the recent normal volatility range. Data shows that the average price fluctuation for Bitcoin during such extreme conditions this year is about 7%, lower than the approximately 10% seen in 2018.Since 2024, Bitcoin's volatility has been around 47%, similar to Nvidia, but during the same period, Bitcoin has had 26 "3 standard deviation" trading days, far exceeding Nvidia's 8 times, the S&P 500's 16 times, and gold's 12 times. Market participants point out that macro shocks and the leverage and concentrated positions in the derivatives market are important factors contributing to the continued occurrence of extreme volatility. When investors sell options in large quantities, betting on market calmness, sudden news can force related concentrated positions to close, further amplifying price fluctuations.Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to adequately measure tail risks during extreme market conditions, and investors should pay more attention to risk indicators such as Expected Shortfall. Meanwhile, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management are also enhancing the market's ability to withstand shocks, but this does not mean that extreme volatility will disappear.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event predicting the number of tweets by Elon Musk from October 8 to 10, 2026, on the Polymarket market, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "65-89" has experienced severe fluctuations in winning probability, dropping from 40.5% an hour ago to the current 16% (a fluctuation of 24.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "India vs West Indies T20 Series" on Polymarket, the probability of the sub-market "Match Completed" for the "Yes" option has experienced a sharp fluctuation, soaring from 50.5% an hour ago to the current 90.5% (a fluctuation of 40%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

Bitcoin News posted on platform X that the SEC has approved the listing of the 3x Bitcoin ETF launched by Cboe BZX under Volatility Shares, which aims to track 3 times the daily volatility of the Bitcoin futures benchmark.When Bitcoin futures rise by 1%, the fund aims for a pre-fee profit of 3%; when it falls by 1%, the target is a loss of 3%. This ETF still needs to wait for the registration statement to take effect before it can be traded, and the fund holds Bitcoin futures rather than Bitcoin spot.

According to Gate market data, spot gold opened high and then declined, with a short-term fluctuation of nearly 10 dollars, currently reported at 4,135.16 dollars/ounce.