volatility

Greeks.live macro researcher Adam pointed out on the X platform that as the price of Bitcoin continues to rebound, the implied volatility (IV) of major term options is actually decreasing, and while IV is falling, the skew is clearly positively biased. The main reason for this phenomenon is that the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran is gradually calming down, and the market's concerns about war risks are dissipating, leading to a significant drop in the prices of put options.The trading on the order book and in bulk is relatively balanced, with major transactions concentrated in the current and next month. The market is readjusting its position layout, and the main participants have reached a consensus on the future market expectations—low volatility expectations are becoming the mainstream in the market.

According to CoinDesk, the price of Bitcoin has broken a four-week high and has now risen to over $74,000.Analysis indicates that $75,000 is a key "volatility release point," and due to the negative gamma effect in the derivatives market, price fluctuations may be amplified. This range also coincides with Bitcoin's 100-day moving average, which became a major resistance level in January of this year.If the price breaks above $75,000, the upward trend may accelerate further; if it falls back, it could increase downward pressure. The range of $80,000 to $80,600 is a positive gamma zone, where market volatility is relatively low, and the trend may tend toward range-bound fluctuations. Additionally, the 200-day moving average is currently at $87,519, serving as a long-term price reference.

Global index market volatility is intensifying, and funds are accelerating their inflow into the cross-asset derivatives market. The AUS200, HK50, and US30 index contracts on the Gate platform are performing exceptionally actively, dominating the top five positions in CoinGlass's holding increase leaderboard over the past four hours.According to CoinGlass data, the holding size of AUS200 (Australia S&P 200) on the Gate platform reached $620,400, with an increase of 1840.64%; the holding size of HK50 (Hang Seng Index) was $2.53 million, with an increase of 1091.96%; the holding of US30 (Dow Jones Index) reached $7.89 million, with an increase of 981.24%; TW88 and HSCHKD recorded increases of 129.34% and 97.88%, respectively, further highlighting Gate's product coverage and liquidity advantages in cross-asset derivatives trading.Gate pioneered index perpetual contracts, using mainstream global indices and volatility indices as underlying assets, introducing market sentiment indicators into the crypto derivatives trading system, maintaining USDT settlement, and supporting 24/7 trading. The platform will continue to build a multi-asset contract system covering mainstream TradFi assets, providing users with more flexible multi-asset trading options.

The metal market has seen a short-term pullback. Among them, international gold (XAUT) reached a high of $4,713.3 and a low of $4,621.1 within 24 hours; international silver (XAG) reached a high of $75.73 and a low of $72.79 within 24 hours. As prices broke through key ranges, market risk aversion sentiment marginally receded, significantly amplifying short-term volatility.According to CoinGlass data, Gate's metal contract trading and positions are actively synchronized. Currently, the position size of XAUT is $42.7135 million; the 24-hour contract trading volume of XAG reached $60.4477 million, a substantial increase of 1640.73% compared to the previous period. Against the backdrop of severe market fluctuations, the competition between bulls and bears has intensified, driving a rapid increase in trading activity.Gate has pioneered the metal contract trading sector, providing 24/7 uninterrupted trading, offering users greater strategic flexibility and asset management efficiency in volatile markets. Gate's contracts cover various traditional financial assets, including stocks, metals, foreign exchange, indices, and commodities, supporting trading in core targets such as gold, silver, and globally popular stocks. Gate continues to build a more efficient and professional multi-asset one-stop trading platform for global users.

Mike McGlone, Bloomberg's senior commodity strategist, tweeted that the crypto bear market may be in its early stages and stated that if β (market risk) declines, Bitcoin could fall back to $10,000.He disclosed that since the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) began trading in January 2024, its total return has been roughly on par with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), but the former's volatility is about four times that of the latter, with a 200-day correlation close to 0.5. In the absence of higher returns, high volatility and correlation are generally unfavorable for asset allocation. He also pointed out that since the birth of Bitcoin in 2009, the number of crypto assets has reached millions, most of which lack substantial support but still have valuations in the billions of dollars.

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market is generally stabilizing, with Bitcoin slightly fluctuating around $71,700 and Ethereum at $2,180, continuing the low volatility trend of the past few months.In terms of technical indicators, Bitcoin's daily Bollinger Bands have narrowed to their tightest level since early 2024. Crypto analyst Eric Crown noted that since early February, Bitcoin's price has remained within the range of $63,000 to $75,000, and historically, whenever such a narrow range occurs, the price eventually experiences about a 40% fluctuation.According to CoinGlass's liquidation heat map, if Bitcoin breaks above $75,000, it will trigger upward momentum, forcing short sellers to cover their positions; if it falls below $70,000 in the short term, approximately $200 million in long positions betting on a breakout will be liquidated.One of the key catalysts on Friday is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The inflation rate for March is expected to be 3.3% year-on-year, driven by soaring energy prices. Higher inflation data often strengthens the dollar, which in turn puts pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi stated during a live broadcast at Binance Square on April 8 that since entering the cryptocurrency industry at the end of 2015 and experiencing two to three cycles of bull and bear markets, he still tends to be "long-term bullish," but the premise is not to be overly optimistic and to face the market's cyclicality and "huge volatility." In his view, the pullbacks and rebounds of crypto assets far exceed those of traditional markets, and investors need to maintain clarity and risk awareness amid the volatility.Regarding the market pressure this year, Yi attributed it to multiple external factors: the unfulfilled expectations of interest rate cuts at the macro level, geopolitical disturbances, slower-than-expected policy advancements, and the cooling of certain narratives (such as "national strategy"); combined with the impact of the four-year cycle, he believes the correction may exceed the original plan. However, he emphasized that this is more about the external financial environment and cycles amplifying short-term volatility, and his core judgment on ETH from a long-term perspective has not changed.On the strategic level, he believes that the difficulty of primary investments has significantly increased after 2022-2023: early-stage primary project cycles are shorter, and liquidity is released faster, but as market structures and unlocking/circulation arrangements change, the window of opportunity for investors has clearly narrowed, making primary investments "not as easy as before." Therefore, he is gradually reducing his involvement in primary investments and focusing more on research and opportunity capture in the secondary market.In addition, he emphasized that AI is accelerating the reshaping of the competitive landscape: over the past two to three months, he has invested more effort into learning about AI and promoting the transformation of invested companies towards AI, believing that individuals and teams that do not understand or cannot use AI in the future may be quickly eliminated. In response to external controversies such as "pumping and dumping," he stated that investment ultimately depends on asset value and trends, and large markets are difficult to be driven by a single participant.

Crypto analyst Ali published a lengthy analysis on the X platform, pointing out that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has bottomed out, it is better to focus on whether the current volatility constitutes a "generational entry opportunity." Based on indicators such as long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution, the core "value range" of this cycle is defined.In terms of support, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that there is a significant concentration of chips in the range of approximately $63,111 to $70,685, forming the current main support zone; if it falls below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term trend perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line of the past decade (approximately $56,000 to $60,000), which historically has often corresponded to accumulation phases before major upward movements.

Due to the impact of the phased ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, market risk aversion has significantly eased, and major global stock indices have generally risen. According to data from the Gate platform, the Asia-Pacific market performed impressively: the Taiwan MSCI Index (TW88) rose by 5.39%, closing at 2,835.36; the Nikkei 225 Index (JPN225) increased by 5.83%, closing at 354.12; the Australia 200 Index (AUS200) rose by 4.97%, closing at 6,338.18.The European and American markets also saw a broad increase, with the Nasdaq 100 Index (NAS100) rising by 3.96%, closing at 24,987.64; the S&P 500 Index (SPX500) increasing by 2.82%, closing at 6,759.58; the Dow Jones Industrial Index (US30) rising by 2.46%, closing at 47,742.26; and the Russell 2000 Index (US2000) increasing by 4.29%, closing at 2,635.59. In Europe, the German DAX 40 Index (GER40) rose by 5.78%, closing at 28,214.80; and the UK FTSE 100 Index (UK100) increased by 3.50%, closing at 14,338.18.At the same time, the rise in market risk appetite has led to a decline in volatility, with the VIX Index (VIXUSDT) falling by 5.27%, closing at 23.305, and the Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) also dropping by 3.48%, closing at 36.08. Overall, the easing of geopolitical tensions has significantly boosted global stock market performance, with funds accelerating their return to risk assets.

BIT released today's chart stating that market trading volume has significantly shrunk, lacking clear directional catalysts. While Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $1.3 billion, Ethereum continues to face capital outflows, further exacerbating the divergence in demand between the two.From a macro perspective, despite ongoing geopolitical risks, volatility continues to converge, making put strategies increasingly favored. Recent changes in the Ethereum options market are particularly notable: the proportion of sold upside call options has risen sharply, indicating a lack of confidence in a short-term rebound for ETH. A few months ago, traders were actively buying upside exposure; now the trend has shifted, with more Ethereum traders opting to earn premiums by selling call options rather than betting on directional increases.

According to Jinshi reports, the CBOE Volatility Index rose 2.1 points during the day, closing at 26.67.

In the options market, implied volatility has slightly retreated, and the curve maintains a moderate positive spread. Downside hedging demand still exists but has not reached extreme levels, and geopolitical premiums continue to be reflected in volatility pricing.Currently, BTC has neither fully followed the high beta logic of the stock market nor formed stable safe-haven demand. Market trends are still primarily driven by news, and a trending market is yet to form until macro or geopolitical situations become clearer.

According to Jinshi News, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index rose by 1.17 points, closing at 26.5 points.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates that Bitcoin's performance last week showed significant divergence. Although it briefly rose to a high of $76,000, it subsequently fell back due to the impact of PPI data, statements from the Federal Reserve, and tensions in the Middle East, with a weekend low of around $68,000.Despite the increased short-term volatility, Bitcoin overall remains above its opening price, while the S&P 500 index has shown more fluctuations. Market analysis suggests that if bulls have enough confidence to push the price above the $72,000 range, there may be an "air gap" between $72,000 and $82,000 above, which is a relatively sparse area of transactions and resistance, allowing for a potential rapid price increase.The current market focus is on whether macro data and geopolitical situations will continue to disrupt the performance of risk assets, and whether Bitcoin can re-establish sustained upward momentum to return to previous high ranges.

According to Jinshi Data, Goldman Sachs stated that the recent decline in gold prices is generally consistent with past trends, noting that the increase in interest rate expectations and market volatility are the main factors leading to the price drop.The co-head of the global commodities research department, Damien Courvalin, said on Wednesday, "Given our current pricing framework, this decline is not surprising." He pointed out that the rise in interest rate expectations has impacted investor demand, particularly through ETFs. Extreme market pressure can also affect gold prices, as investors facing margin calls often sell gold along with other assets.He also noted that the recent rise in gold prices has exceeded fundamental expectations, with some of the pullback reflecting "a certain degree of normalization." However, Goldman Sachs maintains its overall optimistic outlook, expecting gold prices to reach $5,400 by the end of the year. The reasoning is supported by the ongoing central bank purchases of gold as countries seek to diversify their assets (i.e., shifting towards assets with "lower political and financial risks").

The cryptocurrency asset management company CoinShares has submitted an application related to the Bitcoin Volatility ETF, with the code CBIX.

Founder of Strategy, Michael Saylor, tweeted that its perpetual preferred stock product STRC aims to achieve an annualized return of 11.5%, a volatility of 1.7%, a Sharpe ratio of 4.60, and daily liquidity of $209 million.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor stated that the volatility of the perpetual preferred stock STRC has dropped to a historic low of 1.5%, driving its Sharpe ratio to a historic high of 5.37, setting a new standard for risk-adjusted performance.According to the official STRC data panel, the current price of STRC is $99.88, with an effective yield of 11.51%, a 30-day historical volatility reaching a historic low of 1.5%, and a Sharpe ratio hitting a historic high of 5.37, indicating that STRC can provide high returns with low risk.It is reported that STRC is a floating-rate perpetual preferred stock issued by Strategy, positioned as a short-term high-yield credit product, with a price anchored around $100, distributing cash monthly, and the dividend rate adjusted monthly. Strategy raises funds through the continuously newly issued STRC to buy BTC, leveraging the common perception that the total value of BTC holdings should be lower than the market value of MSTR to boost its market capitalization, and continues to issue STRC in hopes of achieving a positive spiral. The leverage internalization amplifies the greater volatility of MSTR's stock price relative to BTC, which can be seen as a leveraged way to invest in Bitcoin.

According to Jinshi reports, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) briefly touched a low not seen in over a week, recently falling by 0.5 points to 23.01.

Due to the ongoing tension in the Middle East and the potential risk of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the energy market has experienced increased volatility. WTI crude oil (XTIUSDT) briefly surged to 100.86 USDT during trading before quickly falling back to 92.68 USDT, and then maintained a fluctuating recovery trend, currently reported at 95.91 USDT, with a 24-hour decline narrowing to 2.78%.According to data from the CoinGlass platform, the total contract trading volume for XTI across the network reached 17.65 million US dollars in 24 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 35.51%; among them, the Gate platform had a 24-hour contract trading volume of 10.97 million US dollars, ranking first in the world.Gate has taken the lead in oil contracts, pioneering the commodity contract sector, covering XBRUSDT (Brent crude oil) and XTIUSDT (WTI crude oil) perpetual contract trading, providing 24/7 trading, USDT settlement, and up to 100 times leverage, helping users with cross-market asset allocation and strategic layout in volatile markets.