volatility

According to BBX data, yesterday marked a milestone for the global largest IPO completion index, with a historic turning point in the valuation logic of AI transformation in mining companies. The core dynamics are as follows:SpaceX, Inc. (NASDAQ: $SPCX) reported on July 7 that the company was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index this week, becoming the first in history to have the largest single IPO ($75 billion) included in the Nasdaq 100. CoinDesk also issued a historic warning: "The last two largest new constituents added—Palantir ($PLTR) in December 2024 and Strategy ($MSTR) in early 2025—both experienced a phase decline after inclusion, rather than starting a new round of increases"; analysts pointed out that passive funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 complete "forced buying" at the time of inclusion, and if there are no new fundamental catalysts afterward, stock prices often pull back after technical buying subsides. Specific risks currently facing SpaceX include: a net loss of approximately $4.27 billion in Q1 2026 (mainly due to xAI integration expenses), a $2 billion bond issuance plan, and a 3.4% equity dilution from the $60 billion acquisition of Cursor/Anysphere; Morningstar maintains a fair value estimate of $62 per share, indicating about a 70% implied downside from the current market price. For the market holding SpaceX Bitcoin (18,712 coins, approximately $1.2 billion, held in Coinbase Prime), the inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 will trigger a larger scale of SPCX holdings by passive funds, further bridging the gap between traditional index investors and indirect exposure to Bitcoin assets.TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: $WULF) according to the latest analysis, the company's high-performance computing (HPC) leasing revenue in Q1 2026 reached $21 million, accounting for about 62% of the total revenue of $34 million, surpassing Bitcoin mining revenue for the first time—this marks TeraWulf's first historic revenue structure reversal after transitioning to an AI/HPC infrastructure company, with a 117% increase from the $9.7 million HPC revenue in Q4 2025. The company has currently signed over 522 megawatts of AI/HPC leases with Core42 and Fluidstack, with an expected annual high-margin revenue of approximately $630 million; the energy structure consists of nuclear power + hydropower, with an average electricity cost of about $0.035 per kilowatt-hour, one of the lowest among similar mining companies. The company is also developing a new campus in Kentucky, adding approximately 480 megawatts of grid access capacity; analysts have significantly raised their target price ranges, with Keefe Bruyette & Woods raising from $23 to $37, Clear Street from $26 to $38, Jefferies initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of $37, and BTIG raising at the same time. The company's stock price has increased by approximately 88% year-to-date in 2026, leading the gains in the mining sector.

On Wednesday, the South Korean Ministry of Finance stated that Finance Minister Kim Yun-seok agreed to closely monitor risk factors that may exacerbate stock market volatility after meeting with the central bank governor and heads of financial regulatory agencies. The Ministry noted that the increase in stock market volatility is due to profit-taking by foreign and institutional investors, portfolio rebalancing, and changes in global AI sector expectations.According to Gate market data, during the early trading session today, the South Korean KOSPI index fell by as much as 4%, reaching its lowest level since May 20, before turning upward driven by a rebound in chip stocks. The Ministry pointed out that the increased concentration in the semiconductor industry has become a factor exacerbating financial market volatility.

Strike, founded by Jack Mallers, has launched a new Bitcoin collateral loan product aimed at avoiding forced liquidation due to a drop in BTC prices. Strike states that as long as borrowers make timely repayments, the collateralized BTC will not be moved or liquidated, regardless of how deep the Bitcoin price falls.Mallers stated on X that this product has no margin call requirements and no price-based liquidation mechanism, allowing users to borrow USD while continuing to hold Bitcoin. He mentioned that volatility is inevitable, but liquidation is not a certainty. Strike indicated that the new loan product eliminates price-triggered actions linked to the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, so borrowers do not have to worry about automatic liquidation due to a drop in BTC prices. As long as interest and maturity payments remain normal, the collateral will remain unchanged.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Graham Platner Withdrawal Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the winning probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "July 8" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 44% an hour ago to the current 64.5% (a fluctuation of 20.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market event "Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals" on Polymarket, the win probability for the "Philadelphia Phillies" option in the sub-market "Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kansas City Royals" has experienced severe fluctuations, dropping from 65.5% an hour ago to the current 18.5% (a fluctuation of 47%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "100-119" has experienced a sharp fluctuation, dropping from 36.05% an hour ago to the current 16.15% (a fluctuation of 19.9%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

BIT analysts indicate that one of their assessments for the coming weeks is that Bitcoin's implied volatility may drop below 30% this summer, similar to 2023 and 2025. If this occurs, the option premiums could lose about 30% of their value solely due to the compression of volatility.Therefore, despite the current implied volatility being close to 36%, they still believe there are opportunities to sell volatility.

According to South Korean media reports, the Bank of Korea has warned that single-stock leveraged ETFs linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix may further exacerbate market concentration, amplify market volatility, and reinforce one-sided trading capital flows. In a written response submitted to the People Power Party member Park Sung-hoon, the Bank of Korea stated: "Given that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for more than half of the total market capitalization and trading volume of the Korean stock market, expanding the investment scale of single-stock leveraged ETFs may further intensify market concentration."The Bank of Korea indicated that as corporate operating conditions or market expectations change, the inflow and outflow of funds increase, which may amplify one-sided trading for such products. Furthermore, once the market experiences a correction, retail investors' losses may further expand, and increased ETF redemptions or portfolio rebalancing may also exacerbate the price volatility of related stocks. According to Yonhap News Agency, the Bank of Korea plans to strengthen monitoring of the impact of single-stock leveraged ETFs on the stock market and the financial system.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "the next round of peace talks between the US and Iran" on the Polymarket prediction market, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "July 17" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 19.5% an hour ago to the current 40.5% (a fluctuation of 21%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Jinshi reports, the research report from CICC believes that since June, the market has begun a continuous adjustment, with the US dollar index breaking above the upper limit of the fluctuation range over the past year. The global capital markets are significantly influenced by AI prosperity and US dollar liquidity, leading to a general pullback, with style adjustments occurring within the US stock market. The research report reiterates that the Federal Reserve is "hawkish in name but dovish in reality" this year, and it is expected that the US dollar index may return to a weak fluctuation range, while physical assets, industrial sectors, and technology still maintain expansion potential.

According to Jinshi reports, the recent rise of technology stocks has slowed down, and traders' confidence in the market outlook has shaken. The volatility gap between the Nasdaq 100 index and the S&P 500 index has widened to the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, mainly due to investors' increased willingness to buy Nasdaq put options, indicating rising concerns about potential pullbacks in technology stocks, especially in the AI sector. On Thursday, the semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell more than 5%, further reflecting the weakening momentum of previously popular technology stocks. Although enthusiasm for market call options has declined, it remains at a high level.

According to CoinDesk, investment bank Jefferies stated in its latest report that the U.S. CLARITY Act still faces significant legislative hurdles in the Senate, and related legislative progress in the coming weeks may exacerbate volatility in the cryptocurrency market.Jefferies pointed out that although the bill previously passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, there are only about 20 legislative days left before the August congressional recess. The Senate still needs to complete the bill's consolidation, procedural voting, coordination with the House version, and submission for presidential signature, making the timeline very tight.Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%. Jefferies believes that if the bill passes smoothly, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset management institutions, and exchanges to accelerate their layout in tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other businesses, as well as facilitate more cryptocurrency ETFs and IPOs of cryptocurrency infrastructure companies. If the legislation is delayed, it may prolong regulatory uncertainty, causing traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain business advancement.The report predicts that the progress of the bill will continue to affect the market performance of cryptocurrency concept stocks such as Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), Bullish (BLSH), and some cryptocurrency assets.Jefferies also noted that in the long term, compared to regulatory changes, the greater challenge faced by stablecoin issuer Circle still comes from competition with banks, fintech, and payment companies.

Recently, metal market prices have declined, with both gold and silver prices adjusting downwards. According to market data from the Gate platform, gold (XAU) reached a 24-hour low of $3950, currently reported at $3975.53, with a 24-hour drop of 2.35%; silver (XAG) reached a 24-hour low of $56.66, currently reported at $57.48, with a 24-hour drop of 2.13%. According to CoinGlass data, the open interest for Gate XAU contracts reached $204 million, and the open interest for XAG contracts reached $64.8941 million, both firmly ranking in the top two in the industry.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Number of Tweets by Elon Musk from June 23 to June 30" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "200-219" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 34.25% an hour ago to the current 12.6% (a fluctuation of 21.65%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

CITIC Construction Investment Research Report points out that the following factors will determine the trend of the third quarter market: In terms of fundamentals, AI computing power remains at a high level of prosperity, with mid-year performance and overseas financial reports worth paying attention to. At the same time, since April, under pressure from the macro economy, the economic measures from the Politburo meeting in July are quite important; In terms of liquidity, external disturbances have increased, while internal conditions remain neutral; In terms of risk appetite, geopolitical events and the listing of industry giants will cause short-term fluctuations in the market. Considering the global tech stock correlation effect, major overseas computing powers such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States also need to be continuously monitored.In terms of industry allocation, although the logic of AI computing power remains unchanged, volatility has intensified. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and to position during pullbacks; lithium batteries are expected to welcome a peak season, and energy storage demand continues to warm up, while new energy presents opportunities for phased valuation recovery; dividends are expected to rebound from oversold conditions, with relatively high cost-performance ratios. Key areas to focus on: banks, coal, public utilities, AI, optical modules, storage, chips, industrial metals, lithium battery materials (VC), etc.

According to SolanaFloor, one of Central Asia's largest stock exchanges, the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) has listed Volatility Shares' Solana ETF (SOLZ). Earlier this year, KASE launched Kazakhstan's first licensed digital asset platform, which is built on the Solana network.

According to CoinDesk, data from the cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform Deribit shows that the 30-day implied volatility index (DVOL) for Bitcoin has dropped to 41.5%, far below the peak of 90% in February. Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot stated that the current Bitcoin volatility is low compared to historical levels, indicating that traders have lowered their expectations for significant price fluctuations, making the cost of purchasing options cheaper.Additionally, this Friday, the cryptocurrency market will see the quarterly options expiration worth $10.5 billion. Data shows that the current volatility of call options is significantly lower than that of put options, making call spreads more attractive based on relative volatility. Péquignot further noted that recent sell-offs in tech stocks and macro factors such as the U.S. core PCE inflation data set to be released on Thursday may further increase market volatility in the short term.