volatility

According to observations from Gate Research Institute, the current implied volatility (IV) for BTC and ETH is approximately 53% and 69%, respectively. The BTC IV is near the 88th percentile of the past year, reflecting a significant increase in the options market's expectations for short-term price volatility. Over the past week, the 25-Delta Skew for BTC and ETH has remained in negative territory, initially converging before sharply dropping to -18 vol on the short end around the 23rd to 24th, indicating a temporary rise in risk aversion; subsequently, the Skew quickly recovered, showing that the impact is driven by short-term events.From the GEX distribution perspective, Gamma is concentrated around the end of February expiration, putting pressure on short-term volatility; there is negative Gamma in mid-March, and if this range is reached, volatility may be amplified, posing a structural switching risk. In the past 24 hours, large options trades for BTC and ETH have been predominantly bullish: the largest structure is BTC 27MAR26 buy 90k-C / sell 100k-C, approximately 600 BTC, with a net premium expenditure of $70,000; for ETH, it is 27MAR26 buy 2500-C, approximately 9,000 ETH, with a net premium payment of $220,000.Gate has fully upgraded its options VIP fee structure, covering all options products, achieving substantial fee reductions for users from beginners to professionals. VIP0 can enjoy lower rates without asset or transaction thresholds, giving newcomers a cost advantage from the start; during the growth phase, users with "hundred-thousand assets, million transactions" can upgrade to lower rates, with thresholds far below the billion-level transaction or high asset requirements of mainstream platforms; professional and institutional users at VIP10+ can enjoy extremely low rates of Maker 0% and Taker 0.015%, truly achieving cost optimization across all stages.

BlockTower Capital founder Ari Paul stated that market makers can indeed engage in short-term operations during weak markets, such as slightly pushing MSFT or BTC up by about 2% to trigger stop-losses, but such actions are usually day trades, and prices often revert within seconds or minutes, having limited impact on the long-term trends of liquid assets like Bitcoin ETFs.He pointed out that the primary reason for the recent BTC decline is the sell-off of tens of thousands of BTC by early holders, while market buying support is insufficient. Ari Paul believes that large-scale manipulation in the long term is not completely absent, but the probability is low and the risks are high. In most cases, deviations in market trends from expectations should not be simply attributed to "manipulation," and investors should optimize their own analytical frameworks. Meanwhile, compared to "downward manipulation," "upward pushing" is more common across various asset classes.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin experienced significant short-term fluctuations on Monday, rebounding from $64,270 to $66,300, with market liquidity remaining low.In the derivatives market, leverage demand continues to be sluggish, with total open interest in crypto futures remaining below $100 billion for two consecutive weeks. Investors are continuing to allocate futures linked to traditional assets, with Tether Gold open interest increasing by 14% in 24 hours. Additionally, traders are actively pursuing Bitcoin put options, with strike prices concentrated at $58,000, $60,000, and $62,000, indicating that Trump's tariff plan has increased market uncertainty. Put options for Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading at a premium to call options across all maturities, reflecting that downside risks still exist.

Matrixport released a research report on platform X, which pointed out that Bitcoin recently experienced a rapid decline, with implied volatility in options soaring at one point and then partially retreating. The price of Bitcoin dropped from around $85,000 to a low near $60,000, before stabilizing around $66,000.Meanwhile, the implied volatility for March 2026 quickly surged from just over 40% to a panic high close to 65%, reflecting a strong demand for downside protection during the decline. Subsequently, implied volatility fell back to around 50%, indicating that some tail risk hedges are being unwound, and short-term pressure has eased. The crypto market is approaching a critical turning point: volatility remains high, sentiment lingers at extremely low levels, and market liquidity continues to flow out. Traders are gradually unwinding their crash hedges, resulting in a noticeable reduction in overall positions and a significant decline in participation.Historically, such combinations often appear before the initiation of significant directional trends. The macro environment is showing signs of improvement, but the prices of crypto assets have not followed suit significantly, and this divergence is typically difficult to sustain in the long term.

According to CoinDesk, BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robert Mitchnick, stated at the Bitcoin Investor Roundtable that the rampant leveraged speculation on crypto derivatives platforms is exacerbating market volatility and may undermine Bitcoin's long-term positioning as a stable institutional hedge.Mitchnick pointed out that the fundamentals of Bitcoin as a "global, scarce, decentralized monetary asset" remain solid, but its short-term trading behavior increasingly exhibits characteristics of a "leveraged Nasdaq," which will significantly raise the threshold for conservative institutional investors to allocate to this asset.Mitchnick also refuted the view that spot ETFs exacerbate market volatility. He noted that during a week of market turmoil, BlackRock's IBIT fund only experienced a 0.2% redemption; if hedge funds were to liquidate on a large scale, there should have been outflows in the billions of dollars, whereas the actual billions of dollars in liquidations occurred on leveraged platforms.

According to CoinDesk, Steve Kurz, the Global Head of Asset Management and Co-Head of Digital Assets at Galaxy Digital, believes that the recent decline in cryptocurrencies is due to liquidity and leverage release rather than systemic failure. This indicates that the cryptocurrency cycle is more mature than in 2022, and most forced selling may have already been absorbed by the market.The development of stablecoins, tokenization, and the integration of blockchain with traditional finance is accelerating, making cryptocurrencies both a financial asset and a core part of the financial system. Steve Kurz expects that cryptocurrencies will not experience a V-shaped recovery but will go through a period of range-bound fluctuations. Subsequently, with the injection of institutional capital and the ongoing "great integration" of cryptocurrencies with traditional finance, cryptocurrency prices will gradually rise.

According to Bloomberg, as Wall Street enters 2026, investors generally hold record low levels of cash reserves and minimal hedging, but several consensus trades have gone wrong six weeks later.AI has shifted from a "sure-win" trade to a market threat, not to companies developing AI, but to light-asset businesses that may be replaced by AI, such as software companies, wealth managers, and tax advisors. Market volatility has intensified, inter-asset correlations have increased, and energy, consumer staples, and government bonds, which were not favored at the beginning of the year, are leading the market instead.A Bank of America survey shows that the cash holding ratio of investors has hit a historic low of 3.2%, with nearly half of fund managers having no downside protection measures. Analysts warn that beneath the surface calm of the market lies immense pressure, which could trigger more volatility shock events.

Before the release of the US CPI data, the volatility of BTC and ETH has weakened. Derivatives indicators show a marginal improvement in market sentiment. Although leverage levels have been significantly cleaned up, funding rates have turned positive, and institutional basis has rebounded, traders are still paying a premium for downside protection in the short term.Currently, Bitcoin may record its fourth consecutive weekly decline, marking the longest losing streak since mid-November last year. At the same time, the slowdown in trading activity and the decline in volatility are also suppressing overall trading volume. In the derivatives market, the proportion of call option trading volume in the Bitcoin options market has risen to 65%, but the implied volatility term structure remains in a short-term inverted state, indicating that traders are still paying a high "panic premium" for immediate downside protection.

According to official news, the Gate Research Institute has released the "Bingwu Year of the Horse Cryptocurrency Feng Shui Guide," which combines traditional Chinese zodiac elements and the current cryptocurrency market environment. It outlines the changes in fortunes for different zodiac signs during the Year of the Horse and analyzes the market trends and rhythms throughout the year. The report points out that the Year of the Horse will have a strong fire element, which may accelerate market rhythms, increase the frequency of capital rotation and narrative switching, and amplify volatility as a potential characteristic.The report also reviews the structural changes in the market during the Year of the Snake and provides layout ideas based on different risk preferences and asset classes, covering mainstream assets, on-chain tools, and stable income strategies. The overall research attempts to map the logic of cryptocurrency market structural evolution from a traditional cyclical perspective, offering multi-dimensional references for investors in making rhythm judgments and risk management in a high-volatility environment.

Binance Research posted on the X platform that, from Bitcoin's historical peak in October 2025, a 50% drop is merely a mild adjustment compared to previous cycles, reflecting a decrease in volatility as the market matures.

According to Jinshi reports, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is close to a weekly high, having recently risen by 2.48 points to 20.05 points.

QCP Director Elbert Iswara stated in a Money FM 89.3 radio program that the recent significant fluctuations in Bitcoin resemble a liquidity reset rather than a structural collapse. Although the price briefly fell to $60,033, the subsequent rebound indicates that long-term investors and institutional demand still exist.He pointed out that the current Bitcoin trend is mainly influenced by the macroeconomic environment, while factors such as ETF fund outflows, derivative positions, and leverage liquidations have exacerbated the volatility. Iswara suggested that investors pay attention to the key price range of $60,000 to $65,000, ETF fund flows, leverage liquidation situations, and changes in the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks, and believes that Bitcoin should be regarded as a high beta asset for risk management in the short term.

According to Bloomberg, Strategy CEO Phong Le stated in an interview that the company will issue more perpetual preferred shares to alleviate investor concerns about the volatility of its stock price. Le mentioned that the company provides investors with a tool through the issuance of perpetual preferred shares (product name "Stretch") that offers "exposure to digital capital while avoiding volatility risk."The product has a monthly reset dividend yield, currently at 11.25%, aimed at stabilizing its trading price around the $100 par value. So far, preferred shares have made up a small portion of Strategy's financing. The company has sold approximately $370 million in common stock and $7 million in perpetual preferred shares to fund its recent Bitcoin purchases over the past three weeks.Le's statement aligns with the previous public remarks of Executive Chairman Michael Saylor. Saylor stated in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday that concerns about the market forcing the company to sell its holdings due to Bitcoin's decline are "unfounded," and reiterated the company's plan to "continue buying Bitcoin every quarter."

According to the latest "January 2026 Private Wealth Management Monthly Report" released by Gate, the crypto market experienced a sell-off in January, with BTC and ETH dropping by 10% and 18% respectively. In the overall pressured market environment, the Gate Private Wealth Quantitative Fund performed relatively steadily, with the USDT strategy achieving a return rate of 6.7% over the past year. The report noted that the Interstellar Hedge (USDT) strategy stood out with a monthly annualized return rate of 5.0%, while the Quantum Leap (USDT) and Interstellar Hedge (USDT) strategies have achieved a 100% monthly win rate since their inception. The annualized return rate of the top 30% portfolio in January reached 4.5%, significantly outperforming Bitcoin and U.S. Treasury yields.From an overall perspective, Walsh's appointment is not sufficient to be interpreted as a comprehensive tightening of monetary policy stance; the mainstream market expectation still believes there is room for two rate cuts this year. Although adjustments in monetary policy expectations and increased phase selling have intensified market volatility, historical data indicates that we are more likely in a market consolidation phase, with long-term structural trends still having development potential.

The cryptocurrency asset management company Grayscale pointed out in its latest report that Bitcoin's recent drop to around $60,000 resembles a pullback of high-growth tech stocks rather than the safe-haven pattern familiar to gold investors. This indicates that Bitcoin still resembles an emerging technology asset rather than a mature store of value at this stage.Although Bitcoin has characteristics such as a fixed supply and a decentralized network, it has only a 17-year history, which is far less than gold's thousands of years as a currency. Grayscale believes that the advancement of stablecoin and tokenized asset regulation, innovations in blockchain infrastructure, and the development of platforms like Ethereum, Solana, and Chainlink are expected to drive the next phase of adoption for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency assets. Meanwhile, if Bitcoin can address issues such as scalability, transaction fees, and quantum resistance, its volatility may decrease, its correlation with the stock market may weaken, and its future performance could be closer to "digital gold."

According to market news, Strategy founder Michael Saylor stated in a recent interview that despite short-term price pressures, Bitcoin is expected to yield returns 2-3 times that of the S&P index in the next 4-8 years. He pointed out that the current volatility provides an opportunity for strategic accumulation, and MicroStrategy will continue to accumulate Bitcoin assets as planned.

Wintermute stated that Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000 last Monday, erasing all gains since Trump's election. Spot fund flows show significant structural pressure. The Coinbase premium has consistently been in a discount state throughout the market process, persisting since last December, indicating ongoing selling pressure from the U.S.Internal OTC fund flow data also confirms that U.S. counterparties were the main sellers throughout the week, and this trend has been further amplified by continuous ETF fund redemptions. Over the past few months, AI-related assets have been continuously absorbing available market funds, crowding out the allocation space for other asset classes. The phenomenon where crypto assets underperform when AI-related companies rise and experience amplified declines when they fall can almost entirely be explained by the rotation of funds towards the AI sector.For crypto assets to outperform again, AI trading needs to cool down first. Microsoft's weak earnings report has initiated this process, but it is still far from enough. Last week's market was like a "surrender-style" clearing, with volatility soaring and buying support emerging at $60,000. In an environment where spot trading remains relatively low, leverage has become the dominant factor in price fluctuations.If open interest cannot significantly rebound, it will be difficult for the market to form sustained follow-through on either the long or short side. A true structural recovery requires a return of spot demand, but there is currently almost no evidence of this. We are likely entering a phase of high volatility and choppy price discovery. It will be hard to see sustained upward potential until the Coinbase premium turns positive, ETF fund flows reverse, and basis rates stabilize. Meanwhile, retail attention is being diverted to other asset classes, and market direction seems increasingly dominated by institutional fund flows from ETFs and derivatives channels.

Cobo co-founder and CEO Shen Yu shared investment insights on platform X: "The biggest structural advantage of individual investors over institutions is not information or capital, but rather 'no one needs to be accountable.'Funds are often constrained by institutional requirements from LPs, drawdown limits, and quarterly assessments, which can force them to cut losses at the worst possible times; whereas individual investors can take advantage of volatility and extend their time horizons to acquire chips that are passively sold off due to institutional constraints at market bottoms, thus generating profits."

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic stated that the volatility of employment data is another reason for the Federal Reserve to remain cautious.