volatility

According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will hold a live broadcast themed "Gaps, Leverage, Stop Loss, a Practical Checklist for Ordinary Traders" today at 8 PM. At that time, crypto KOLs including Crypto.0824, Zhu Erdan, HiSeven, Mo Laotou, and Jiu Ge BTC will discuss trading strategies under the high volatility of the earnings season.At the same time, the guests will combine their practical experience to explore how ordinary traders can maintain trading discipline and enhance risk response and strategy execution capabilities amid increasing market uncertainty.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the probability of the option "Yes" in the event "Republican Victory Prediction in Senate Swing States" on the prediction market Polymarket has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 32.5% an hour ago to the current 48.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's market performance before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections has broken the trend observed in the previous three elections. As of November 3, Bitcoin was priced at approximately $76,990, about 5.2% higher than the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $73,169, indicating that its long-term trend remains above the average.In contrast, during the U.S. midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin's price was approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% below the 200-day average, respectively, all during bear market phases. The report noted that although Bitcoin broke through $126,000 in October 2025, the current bear market has seen relatively shallow declines, mainly concentrated in January and February of this year.Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, stated that historical data shows Bitcoin typically exhibits volatility or slight weakness in the initial months following midterm elections, but has achieved gains in the subsequent 12 months. However, short-term trends may still be influenced by election results, ETF fund flows, U.S. employment data, and geopolitical risks.Additionally, Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index BVIV has broken through a descending triangle pattern, indicating an increase in market expectations for short-term volatility.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction for the "Raptors vs. Clippers" event on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Overtime?" experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 20.5% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 29.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event on Polymarket for "Elon Musk Tweet Count from October 29 to October 31, 2026," the "Yes" option in the sub-market "140-164" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 58.65% an hour ago to the current 76.35% (a fluctuation of 17.7%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Bitfinex analysis, Strategy shareholders voted on October 28 to approve the proposal for daily dividends on STRC preferred shares, with preliminary results showing that 99.3% of votes supported the proposal. STRC is expected to change from bi-monthly dividends to daily dividends starting November 1, with the first cash dividend to be credited on November 2; the other three preferred shares under Strategy, STRF, STRK, and STRD, are expected to follow suit in January 2027.This move by Strategy aims to reduce price volatility caused by ex-dividend dates. The company's CEO Phong Le stated that previously, when STRC paid monthly dividends, the average price dropped about 49 basis points around the ex-dividend date, which decreased to about 36 basis points after switching to bi-monthly dividends. The company expects that daily dividends will further disperse selling pressure and enhance price stability.This model is not unique to Strategy. Bitcoin treasury company Strive switched its SATA preferred shares to daily dividends in June this year and launched a subordinate preferred share SATS with a fixed annual dividend rate of 15%. In October, Strive issued 7 million shares of SATS at $90 per share, raising approximately $630 million, and used about $511 million of that to purchase 6,182 BTC.

The cryptocurrency KOL Seven research stated that currently, the majority of the major funds and main margin accounts of market makers and quantitative institutions in the cryptocurrency market are on Binance. Many institutions are engaged in cross-exchange arbitrage or hedging, and the suspension of withdrawals by Binance could lead to a sudden halt in their capital chain.Seven research mentioned that if the market continues to fluctuate violently, relevant institutions will be unable to withdraw funds from Binance to supplement margins elsewhere. To prevent liquidation, they will be forced to close positions on other exchanges and on-chain, forcibly pulling cash back. They also indicated that this is why the stolen assets were Ethereum-based, resulting in Solana and a bunch of altcoins dropping on the same day.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket for the event "US-Iran Ceasefire Continues," the sub-market "October 31" option's probability of "Yes" has experienced a sharp fluctuation, dropping from 85.45% an hour ago to the current 46.9% (a fluctuation of 38.55%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Glassnode's latest report indicates that Bitcoin has fallen back below the range of $84,000 to $85,000, a range that has blocked price increases four times this year. The inflow of funds into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has significantly cooled, with a net inflow of only about $67 million in the past two weeks; the major buy orders on Binance's spot order book have also shifted down to the range of $78,000 to $79,000, with a scale of about $42 million.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's one-month realized volatility has dropped to about 25%, returning to the levels seen in the summer of 2023; since August, the realized losses triggered by each round of decline have continued to narrow, indicating that selling pressure has eased.Glassnode believes that Bitcoin is currently in a range-bound state with weak demand and limited selling pressure, as the market is focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. If the daily close re-establishes above $85,000, it may serve as an initial signal for further rebounds; if it falls below the average cost of active investors around $77,900, attention should be paid to the cost support for short-term holders near $75,800.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Chiefs vs. Seahawks" on Polymarket, the "Chiefs" option in the sub-market "3Q Spread -4.5" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 49.5% an hour ago to the current 16.5% (a fluctuation of 33%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "US-Iran Ceasefire Continues" on Polymarket, the sub-market "October 31" option's probability of "Yes" has experienced a sharp fluctuation, dropping from 84.5% an hour ago to the current 69% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Bitwise released a report indicating that Bitcoin is currently holding resiliently around $82,000, a price level close to the spot ETF holding cost. Key support levels below include the short-term holder cost price of approximately $74,800 and the real market average of about $77,600. The former can serve as a reference for judging the short-term market direction, while the latter corresponds to the price level at which half of the invested capital in the market is in profit or loss. The price range formed by these two points may become the dividing line between bulls and bears.The trading range for Bitcoin over the past 30 days and 60 days has narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively, with the implied volatility at-the-money for each term also approaching the lower end of the distribution range over the past three years. Among them, the 3-month and 6-month implied volatility are at the 0.8 and 0.2 percentiles of historical distribution, indicating that the market's pricing for future volatility has dropped to extremely low levels.So far this week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have reached $1.074 billion, rising in sync with the cumulative trading volume of the spot market, providing support for Bitcoin prices and offsetting some macro pressures. However, realized profits in the market have also increased, particularly among long-term holders. Meanwhile, the net position change indicator for long-term holders is negative, suggesting they may be in a distribution phase, which could be one reason for the ongoing consolidation of Bitcoin prices.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "260-279" has experienced severe fluctuations in winning probability, dropping from 52.5% an hour ago to the current 36.5% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "US-Iran Ceasefire Continues" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "November 15" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 52.5% an hour ago to the current 35.5% (a fluctuation of 17%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to The Block, Bitcoin's 28-day volatility has dropped to 1.2%, close to the lowest level since 2026, reflecting that current market trading activity remains sluggish.K33 analysts expect that as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week and the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 approach, Bitcoin market volatility may rise.

Glassnode published that the key price level for Bitcoin in the fourth quarter is still being held. The institution previously pointed out in the "Charting Crypto" report with Colin Basco and the Coinbase Institutional team that BTC faces resistance in the range of $87,000 to $87,800. Since then, the Bitcoin price has been blocked in that range and continues to oscillate and consolidate below.Glassnode believes that if Bitcoin breaks through the current consolidation range, the market may experience significant volatility, but there is still a large area of selling pressure around $90,000 above.

Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute today updated its market report, stating that multiple events such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the U.S. midterm elections, and third-quarter earnings reports are approaching, and the current narrow trading range of Bitcoin may soon be broken. If Bitcoin breaks above $87,000, it may confirm an upward breakout; if it effectively falls below $82,500, the price could further dip to just above $70,000.On the macro front, the overall CPI in the U.S. rose from 3.4% in August to 3.7%, with core CPI increasing by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, intensifying concerns about energy prices transmitting to core inflation. Wintermute pointed out that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects more of a withdrawal of funds from crowded AI growth stock trades rather than an improvement in inflation expectations. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at its meeting on October 28, but if hawkish signals are released, it may strengthen expectations for a rate hike in December, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and suppressing risk assets.Internally, the cryptocurrency market shows a trend of funds concentrating on mainstream coins. The report indicates that Bitcoin's weekly decline was 1.99%, the Nasdaq index fell by 5.52%, and altcoins overall dropped by 5.69%. Funds continue to flow into BTC and ETH while withdrawing from most altcoins, with high beta and small-cap tokens facing more significant pressure. Wintermute believes that the current risk-reward ratio for mainstream coins is relatively more attractive, and a broad rally in altcoins may need to wait for Bitcoin to strengthen further.Wintermute also noted that the current implied volatility is relatively low, and with the Federal Reserve's decision and midterm elections approaching, the market may be underestimating the risk of subsequent volatility. The Federal Reserve's decision on October 28 will be a key catalyst in the near term, and the performance of AI-related companies' earnings reports will also influence the market's judgment on computing power investments, financing costs, and business models.

According to Barchart, the daily Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin have formed one of the tightest widths in the past two and a half years. This indicates that Bitcoin is "consolidating and tightening," possibly preparing for a major market movement.Bollinger Bands are a commonly used indicator in technical analysis, consisting of three lines: the middle band, which is usually the 20-day simple moving average (SMA); the upper band, which is the middle band + 2 times the standard deviation; and the lower band, which is the middle band - 2 times the standard deviation. Historical experience shows that after a significant tightening of the Bollinger Bands, a directional breakout (either upward or downward) often follows. It is common for volatility to suddenly expand from an extremely low state.

Cryptocurrency asset management company Grayscale posted on X: Bitcoin's volatility has decreased over the past decade as the asset has matured, with relevant background including deeper liquidity, institutional participation, and regulation.Grayscale stated that over the past year, Bitcoin's volatility has dropped to 43%, down from 81% five years ago, and is now within the volatility range of S&P 500 constituents. The company also mentioned that for investors who are already accustomed to holding highly volatile stocks, Bitcoin's price fluctuations may not be as daunting as previously assumed.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Elon Musk Tweet Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "340-359" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 63.95% an hour ago to the current 48.75% (a fluctuation of 15.2%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.