volatility

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, the predicted market on Polymarket for the "Bears vs. Packers" event shows that the "Bears" option in the sub-market "Bears vs. Packers" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 51.5% an hour ago to the current 24.5% (a fluctuation of 27%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the liquidity of tokenized stocks is lower than that of traditional stocks, and their volatility is also higher.Watcher Guru cited the IMF's relevant statement, saying that compared to traditional stocks, tokenized stocks "have lower liquidity and greater volatility." This statement points to the IMF's assessment of the market structure of tokenized assets, involving comparisons of trading depth, price fluctuations, and traditional securities markets.

Cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost pointed out that Bitcoin has entered a phase where selling pressure has significantly increased. Recently, the rebound pushed Bitcoin's price above $85,000, and the Seller Exhaustion indicator has signaled that potential selling pressure is rising.This indicator combines profit supply and volatility to identify risk and calm phases, making it highly valuable for short-term reference. This rise has been quite sudden, especially reflected in short-term holders. The current level of the indicator is approaching the threshold seen at multiple local tops in this cycle. Analysts indicate that it is necessary to observe whether demand can improve and whether volatility converges to suppress potential pullbacks and allow the indicator to return to normal.

Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has experienced 10 "3 standard deviation" trading days, exceeding the 8 times seen throughout the bear market of 2018. Although Bitcoin's annualized volatility has decreased from 84% in 2018 to about 46%, extreme market conditions still occur frequently relative to recent price volatility levels. "3 standard deviation" is used to measure the extent to which prices deviate from the recent normal volatility range. Data shows that the average price fluctuation for Bitcoin during such extreme conditions this year is about 7%, lower than the approximately 10% seen in 2018.Since 2024, Bitcoin's volatility has been around 47%, similar to Nvidia, but during the same period, Bitcoin has had 26 "3 standard deviation" trading days, far exceeding Nvidia's 8 times, the S&P 500's 16 times, and gold's 12 times. Market participants point out that macro shocks and the leverage and concentrated positions in the derivatives market are important factors contributing to the continued occurrence of extreme volatility. When investors sell options in large quantities, betting on market calmness, sudden news can force related concentrated positions to close, further amplifying price fluctuations.Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers stated that traditional Value at Risk (VaR) models struggle to adequately measure tail risks during extreme market conditions, and investors should pay more attention to risk indicators such as Expected Shortfall. Meanwhile, increased institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and improved risk management are also enhancing the market's ability to withstand shocks, but this does not mean that extreme volatility will disappear.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event predicting the number of tweets by Elon Musk from October 8 to 10, 2026, on the Polymarket market, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "65-89" has experienced severe fluctuations in winning probability, dropping from 40.5% an hour ago to the current 16% (a fluctuation of 24.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "India vs West Indies T20 Series" on Polymarket, the probability of the sub-market "Match Completed" for the "Yes" option has experienced a sharp fluctuation, soaring from 50.5% an hour ago to the current 90.5% (a fluctuation of 40%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

Bitcoin News posted on platform X that the SEC has approved the listing of the 3x Bitcoin ETF launched by Cboe BZX under Volatility Shares, which aims to track 3 times the daily volatility of the Bitcoin futures benchmark.When Bitcoin futures rise by 1%, the fund aims for a pre-fee profit of 3%; when it falls by 1%, the target is a loss of 3%. This ETF still needs to wait for the registration statement to take effect before it can be traded, and the fund holds Bitcoin futures rather than Bitcoin spot.

According to Gate market data, spot gold opened high and then declined, with a short-term fluctuation of nearly 10 dollars, currently reported at 4,135.16 dollars/ounce.

According to CoinDesk, Cboe is exploring the launch of perpetual futures linked to the VIX index, which is still in the early stages, with no contract specifications yet and no filing documents submitted. This news comes from Bloomberg.The VIX index measures the expected volatility over the next 30 days as reflected by the pricing of S&P 500 options. As investors buy options to hedge against sharp market declines, the demand for options during downturns surges, thereby raising the index, which is why it is regarded as Wall Street's "fear gauge." Perpetual futures were first proposed by economist Robert Shiller in 1993 and were subsequently commercialized by the cryptocurrency industry.A mature derivatives ecosystem has already formed around the VIX, covering futures, options, and exchange-traded products tracking the index. However, futures come with expiration dates, and when contracts terminate, traders must roll over their positions or shift their bets to the next available contract. This rolling operation is costly and erodes returns, which was a major criticism faced by Bitcoin futures ETFs when they debuted at the end of 2021.In contrast, perpetual swaps never settle and instead anchor contract prices to the spot index through a funding rate mechanism, theoretically providing investors with the closest investment channel to the actual VIX spot price. Martin Lee, Head of Market Insights at DWF Labs, told CoinDesk that traders do not need to worry about expiration and value decay, as they can focus solely on assessing the direction of the underlying asset. He expects a strong trend of "perpetualization" to emerge in the coming months.

Volmex has launched the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) perpetual contract on Hyperliquid. This contract is based on options data from Deribit and OKX, reflecting traders' expectations of Bitcoin's volatility over the next 30 days, without reflecting the direction of the spot price.Recently, the BVIV readings have been in the mid-high range of over 30 points. Each index point of the contract corresponds to a settlement of 1 USDC, using a per-position margin model, supporting a maximum leverage of 5 times, and has an hourly funding rate and a cap on the number of open contracts during the initial launch phase.

According to Binance spot data, the market has experienced significant fluctuations. ARK has dropped by 40.71% in 24 hours, while RE has risen by 12.78% and reached a new high for the week.At the same time, RAY, BLUR, NIL, and SPK have all shown a "high and then low" state, with declines of 8.28%, 14.3%, 13.14%, and 7.74% respectively. In addition, MOVR has recently seen a slight drop over 5 minutes, while ZRO has reached a new low for today, with a decline of 6.6%.RARE has achieved a rebound after hitting a low within 24 hours, with an increase of 5.93%.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees," the sub-market "Overtime" option's probability of "Yes" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 12% an hour ago to the current 53.5% (a fluctuation of 41.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Asian stock markets are expected to have a volatile start on the first trading day of October, as fluctuations in Wall Street erased gains from lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Chris Osmond, Chief Investment Officer of Fifth Third Wealth Advisors, stated that economic growth in the second quarter was stronger than expected, consumer spending remained robust, the job market rebounded in September, and the Fed's preferred inflation indicator was below expectations, reducing the likelihood of an interest rate hike in October.

Hyperliquid has now launched the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index Contract (BVIV), supporting up to 5x leverage, deployed by Markets.xyz.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Vikings vs. Buccaneers," the sub-market "Safety?" saw the probability of the "Yes" option fluctuate dramatically, soaring from 26.5% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 23.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Jets vs. Lions" on Polymarket, the "Lions" option in the sub-market "2H Spread -9.5" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 50% an hour ago to the current 13.5% (a fluctuation of 36.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

The MOVE index, which measures the volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds, has risen approximately 29.69% this week, marking the largest increase since April of last year, as bond yields reached multi-decade highs. Market volatility is intense, and many traders have chosen to wait and see.The head of interest rate strategy at Société Générale expressed a neutral view on U.S. interest rates, waiting to trade until volatility decreases.

According to CoinDesk, the volatility in the U.S. Treasury market has significantly increased recently, while Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market remain calm. The MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, rose from about 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, the highest level since March; at that time, the index reached as high as 199.In contrast, the Volmex 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV) is currently around 37, close to the year-to-date low of 35; the Cboe VIX, which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500, is near the year-to-date low of 14.Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond briefly hit 5.2% on Thursday before falling back to 5.163%. Data shows that the correlation coefficient between VIX and MOVE over the past 20 trading days has dropped to -0.06, marking the first negative correlation since April 2024; the correlation coefficient between BVIV and MOVE is -0.37, at a relatively low level in recent years.Analysts point out that as an important foundation of the global financial and credit system, an increase in U.S. Treasury volatility usually indicates a tightening financial environment, but currently, BTC and the U.S. stock market have not reflected the same level of volatility risk as the bond market.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the market prediction event "Elon Musk Tweet Count Prediction" on Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "180-199" has experienced a drastic fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 49.5% an hour ago to the current 29.5% (a fluctuation of 20%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.