volatility

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Number of Tweets by Elon Musk from June 23 to June 30" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "200-219" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 34.25% an hour ago to the current 12.6% (a fluctuation of 21.65%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

CITIC Construction Investment Research Report points out that the following factors will determine the trend of the third quarter market: In terms of fundamentals, AI computing power remains at a high level of prosperity, with mid-year performance and overseas financial reports worth paying attention to. At the same time, since April, under pressure from the macro economy, the economic measures from the Politburo meeting in July are quite important; In terms of liquidity, external disturbances have increased, while internal conditions remain neutral; In terms of risk appetite, geopolitical events and the listing of industry giants will cause short-term fluctuations in the market. Considering the global tech stock correlation effect, major overseas computing powers such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States also need to be continuously monitored.In terms of industry allocation, although the logic of AI computing power remains unchanged, volatility has intensified. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and to position during pullbacks; lithium batteries are expected to welcome a peak season, and energy storage demand continues to warm up, while new energy presents opportunities for phased valuation recovery; dividends are expected to rebound from oversold conditions, with relatively high cost-performance ratios. Key areas to focus on: banks, coal, public utilities, AI, optical modules, storage, chips, industrial metals, lithium battery materials (VC), etc.

According to SolanaFloor, one of Central Asia's largest stock exchanges, the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) has listed Volatility Shares' Solana ETF (SOLZ). Earlier this year, KASE launched Kazakhstan's first licensed digital asset platform, which is built on the Solana network.

According to CoinDesk, data from the cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform Deribit shows that the 30-day implied volatility index (DVOL) for Bitcoin has dropped to 41.5%, far below the peak of 90% in February. Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot stated that the current Bitcoin volatility is low compared to historical levels, indicating that traders have lowered their expectations for significant price fluctuations, making the cost of purchasing options cheaper.Additionally, this Friday, the cryptocurrency market will see the quarterly options expiration worth $10.5 billion. Data shows that the current volatility of call options is significantly lower than that of put options, making call spreads more attractive based on relative volatility. Péquignot further noted that recent sell-offs in tech stocks and macro factors such as the U.S. core PCE inflation data set to be released on Thursday may further increase market volatility in the short term.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the predicted market event "Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres" on Polymarket, the win probability for the "Atlanta Braves" option in the sub-market "Spread -1.5" has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from 39.5% an hour ago to the current 18% (a fluctuation of 21.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Previously, the United States announced a temporary agreement with Iran and lifted a 60-day oil sanction, leading to increased volatility in the international crude oil market. According to Bitget market data, the price of Brent crude oil (BZ) is approximately $78 per barrel, with a 24-hour increase of 0.3%. The competition between bulls and bears has intensified, driving up market attention on related contracts.According to CoinGlass data, the current total open interest for BZ contracts across the network has reached $73.4659 million. Among them, Bitget's BZ contract open interest is $12.5437 million, ranking second globally with a market share of 17.07%.Currently, Bitget has fully deepened its integration with the Universal Exchange (UEX) ecosystem, covering diversified assets such as U.S. stocks, CFDs, and cryptocurrencies.

According to official news from CoinUp, regarding recent market discussions about CoinUp and CPX, CoinUp stated that Zhu Pan is not the operator of the CoinUp platform and does not participate in the core operations of the platform; his role is solely as a project party for a project launched on the CoinUp platform.CoinUp also expressed gratitude to users, the community, and the media for their attention and supervision of CPX. In response to the recent significant short-term price fluctuations of the CPX/USDT trading pair, the platform previously announced that this fluctuation was mainly due to concentrated selling pressure from the market, and the specific reasons are currently under further investigation and verification, with updates to be provided in a timely manner based on the progress of the investigation.CoinUp emphasized that after a comprehensive security check of the platform, it has not suffered from hacker attacks, data breaches, or system vulnerabilities; the wallet system, account system, and asset custody are all in a secure and controllable state. The platform's recharge, withdrawal, and trading functions are operating normally, user assets are secure, and account data is complete, with no reported losses of user assets.CoinUp stated that it will continue to improve its risk control monitoring mechanisms, maintain market trading order, and advise users to rely on official channel information, view market fluctuations rationally, and pay attention to controlling trading risks.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Starmer Stay or Leave" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "June 22" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, soaring from 52.5% an hour ago to the current 67.5% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the "Starmer Resignation Timing" event on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "June 22" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 61% an hour ago to the current 82.5% (a fluctuation of 21.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Location of the Next Diplomatic Talks between the U.S. and Iran" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Switzerland" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 63.45% an hour ago to the current 84.2% (a fluctuation of 20.75%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Michael Saylor, founder and CEO of Bitcoin Treasury Company Strategy, stated that the US stock market is closed today, making volatility unavoidable, but Bitcoin continues to operate.Michael Saylor continues his consistent long-term perspective on Bitcoin, emphasizing that Bitcoin maintains its around-the-clock operating characteristics in any market environment, contrasting with the "market closure mechanism" of traditional financial markets.

Glassnode stated that Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen back to an important support area after retesting the February lows. Data from the options market shows that although the price is close to key levels, implied volatility has significantly decreased from recent highs, with 1-week implied volatility dropping from about 60% to 35%. The overall volatility curve has shifted downwards, indicating a clear cooling in the market's pricing of future uncertainty.At the same time, the 25Δ skew has also retreated from extreme levels during the sell-off, and the demand for short-term protection has normalized, showing that panic hedging sentiment is weakening. However, structural defensive positions still dominate. Data shows that short-term options still lean towards downside protection, with bearish option transactions accounting for about 28% in the past week, significantly higher than the buying ratio of bullish options (24.1%).Additionally, the 1-month implied volatility has fallen below actual volatility, indicating a situation where "implied volatility underestimates real volatility." There is a significant short gamma concentration around the $62,000 mark (approximately $1.8 billion in size), which could accelerate volatility amplification if prices drop further, while there is a certain long gamma buffer zone around $60,000. Overall, despite the cooling of volatility, the market remains in a defensive position structure.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "The location of the next diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option for the sub-market "Switzerland" has experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 34.6% an hour ago to the current 13.5% (a fluctuation of 21.1%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Elon Musk's number of tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "180-199" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 43.5% an hour ago to the current 58.5% (a fluctuation of 15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Jinshi reports, Kay Haigh of Goldman Sachs Asset Management stated that the "unequivocally hawkish" message from Walsh surprised the market, as it prioritized curbing inflation. The market believes that the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has exceeded 80%, and expects more than one rate hike in October. Haigh predicts that the volatility of 2-year Treasury bonds will significantly increase in the future, as the market refocuses on inflation issues, with the long end of the yield curve stabilizing. On Wednesday, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries surged by 13 basis points, marking the largest increase since April 2025.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event of "Release of the US-Iran Agreement Text" on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the "Yes" option in the sub-market "June 17" experienced a sharp fluctuation, soaring from 37% an hour ago to the current 55% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Market data platform Deribit shows that as Bitcoin continues to decline in June, the options market set to expire this month has experienced a significant imbalance, with approximately $8.6 billion nominal value of BTC options in an out-of-the-money (OTM) state, facing the risk of expiring worthless.Data indicates that among the approximately $10.6 billion in open options contracts expiring on June 26, only about 20% are in-the-money (ITM), while the remaining 80% are currently at a loss. Analysts point out that this structural imbalance may trigger concentrated hedging adjustments by market makers and traders before expiration, thereby amplifying short-term market volatility.The current maximum pain price is approximately $74,000, which is about 14% higher than Bitcoin's current price of around $65,000. Theoretically, this price level means that the maximum number of options contracts will expire worthless, potentially creating an upward pull on prices as expiration approaches, although the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains controversial.Additionally, the bullish and bearish structures in the options market are relatively close, with a Put/Call ratio of about 0.87, indicating increased divergence in market sentiment. Approximately $450 million in positions are concentrated in $60,000 put options, while $80,000 call options also form a key resistance level of about $406 million.Analysts believe that as the quarterly expiration approaches, concentrated exercising and hedging adjustments may become important driving factors for short-term price volatility, and Bitcoin may face a more intense directional choice window.