volatility

According to CoinDesk, approximately 81,700 Bitcoin options contracts (with a nominal value of about $6.4 billion) on Deribit will expire on Friday at 08:00 UTC. The number of call options exceeds that of put options, with a put/call ratio of 0.83, and the maximum pain point is at $68,000. The $80,000 strike price holds $157 million in nominal value of call options, while the $75,000 strike price has the largest open interest in call options, reaching $236 million.Shaun Fernando, Chief Risk Officer of Deribit, stated that nearly 20% of Deribit's Bitcoin open contracts are about to expire, combined with factors such as severe market volatility, the volatility term structure shifting from backwardation to contango, a relative increase of 30% in DVOL, and a shift from negative to positive skew in call-put options, this will be a "noteworthy expiration date." Bitcoin surged from about $62,000 to $80,000 within a week, marking the second-largest weekly gain in years, with a large number of call options with strike prices below $80,000 entering in-the-money status.Fernando pointed out that over $500 million in nominal value is within a 5% volatility range of the current price, which may trigger more intense gamma hedging before expiration, leading to a "pinning" effect around key strike prices or accelerating a breakout beyond these levels. Dynamic hedging conducted by market makers to manage exposure may cause Bitcoin prices to fluctuate around dominant strike prices like $80,000, and once a decisive breakout occurs at that level, it could trigger a larger market movement.

Although Nvidia's upcoming earnings report and Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting are the main events of interest for investors this week, traders in the stock derivatives market have already begun preparing for potential volatility increases around the November U.S. midterm elections.Traders focused on volatility in the futures market linked to the VIX index have noted signs indicating that demand for hedging S&P 500 index volatility has increased before and after the elections. VIX futures expiring in September are currently trading at around 17.4, but October contracts have risen to 19, and November contracts have further increased to 19.7.Matthew Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors, stated, "The U.S. elections are approaching, and you are entering a time window where the elections will impact the VIX. You can already see this 'backwardation' in the term structure of VIX futures."A study by analysts at the Chicago Board Options Exchange Global Markets shows that since 1945, in 80% of midterm election years, actual volatility has been higher than the previous year, with an average increase of 3.5 volatility points. In years when both the White House and Congress are controlled by the same party, actual volatility increases by an average of 6 volatility points.

According to CoinDesk, a price fluctuation of about 3% in tokens on the lending platform Morpho triggered approximately $36 million in liquidations. The incident was caused by a wallet that bought a large amount of the yield token YT-reUSD issued by Pendle, pushing the implied annual yield up to 20% before quickly selling it, resulting in a price drop of about 3% for the corresponding principal token PT-reUSD.Previously, some traders deposited PT-reUSD into Morpho, borrowed stablecoin USDC, and then bought more PT-reUSD in a circular operation, leaving less than 3% of liquidation buffer space for leveraged positions. Morpho uses oracle prices, taking the lower value between the average trading price of PT-reUSD over the past 15 minutes and a fixed path that gradually approaches $1 at maturity. Liquidation is triggered when the market price falls below this curve. Pendle stated that the price source configuration is correct and operates as designed.Steakhouse Financial, responsible for managing the related lending market, stated that its lenders in the treasury were unaffected, with no bad debts incurred, and the proceeds from the liquidation were sufficient to repay the loans. After withdrawing funds during the investigation, Steakhouse reinvested, and the underlying asset reUSD was unaffected.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Number of Elon Musk Tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "300-319" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 46.1% an hour ago to the current 25.95% (a fluctuation of 20.15%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the Polymarket prediction market for the event "Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees," the "Toronto Blue Jays" option in the sub-market "Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 53% an hour ago to the current 75.5% (a fluctuation of 22.5%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

In the past week, inflationary pressures in the United States have eased somewhat, but weakening retail sales have raised concerns in the market about economic growth. Overall, U.S. stocks have maintained resilience, while the cryptocurrency market has been relatively weak. BTC ETF saw a weekly net outflow of approximately $385 million, and institutional allocations have cooled; BTC OI rose to about $12.3 billion, with funding rates remaining positive. Meanwhile, DEX weekly trading volume decreased by 5.2%, and the on-chain and DeFi markets have generally become more cautious.Against the backdrop of differentiated market risk appetite, Gate TradFi trading remains active, with weekly trading volume maintaining a high level of approximately $115 billion. Perp trading continues to grow, and the proportion of Korean stock trading has significantly rebounded. In terms of stocks, the latest exchange rankings from RootData show that Gate's stock spot and futures businesses have both entered the industry's top two, currently covering core markets such as U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and Korean stocks, further connecting traditional finance with digital assets.Based on the needs of professional investors, Gate has comprehensively upgraded its diverse service system covering TradFi, spot, and derivatives, providing a one-stop institutional-level trading infrastructure to assist global institutional investors in efficiently allocating various assets. In the face of market volatility and cross-market allocation needs, Gate continues to promote the construction of multi-market trading infrastructure. Its subsidiary, Gate CrossEx, has supported multiple mainstream venues, providing unified management of accounts, funds, positions, and trading across exchanges, significantly reducing multi-platform operating costs.

Glassnode stated that the last time Bitcoin saw such a significant daily closing price increase was in February of this year, primarily as a rebound from the previous day's 14% drop.This increase is not due to a technical rebound after a crash; relative to its 30-day volatility, this increase reached 5.8 standard deviations, marking the largest upward volatility since October 2023.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the event "Elon Musk's tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "200-219" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, plummeting from 43.15% an hour ago to the current 26.75% (a fluctuation of 16.4%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, citing the latest views from Fidelity Digital Assets, the current volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below approximately 98.5% of its historical trading day levels. The institution pointed out that this compression state can be likened to a compressed spring; the longer the volatility remains low, the greater the potential for significant market movements once a clear direction is chosen.Fidelity Digital Assets, as the digital asset services division of Fidelity, has been tracking the market structure and risk indicators of Bitcoin for a long time. This commentary focuses on the phenomenon of recent volatility being at historically low percentiles, emphasizing that prolonged suppression of volatility often signals the possibility of larger price fluctuations in the future, but it did not provide specific directional judgments or time expectations.The related statements reflect the institution's observations of the current microstructure of the BTC market, indicating that under the background of continuous volatility contraction, the accumulation of market energy may provide conditions for subsequent breakthroughs. This viewpoint is based on historical percentile statistics, offering investors a reference perspective for understanding the current volatility environment.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has recently shown unusually calm performance, achieving an annualized volatility of about 42% on the 30th, narrowing the gap with the S&P 500's 18% to the narrowest level on record. After narratives related to Trump and corporate treasury buying, the market has entered a prolonged compression range. Edmond Goh, Global Trading Head at B2C2, stated that retail funds are shifting towards AI stocks, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets; TradFi high-frequency trading and risk models are improving efficiency, with open interest nearing historical lows, further suppressing volatility.Shiliang Tang, Partner at Monarq Asset Management, mentioned that Bitcoin is in a price stalemate, with upward pressure from corporate treasury sell-offs (such as Strategy, MARA) and limited downward movement due to speculative leverage clearing and net accumulation in long-term wallets. Strategy has sold about 7,000 BTC by 2026. Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, pointed out that institutional ETFs and DAT are driving market maturity, while clarity in U.S. regulation (CLARITY Act) is still pending, and low volatility has led to a decrease in trading volume.Greg Cipolaro from NYDIG stated that short-term traders are chasing 5x or 10x returns, with target options expanding to Nvidia, gold, perpetual stock contracts, 0DTE options, or sports event contracts. Retail in South Korea is shifting from crypto to domestic AI-related stocks, with Upbit and Bithumb's trading volume significantly dropping year-on-year. Trading in traditional asset perpetuals on crypto platforms and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has seen a significant increase.

According to BeInCrypto, Sean Farrell, the head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, released a research report indicating that Bitcoin's current 30-day price volatility has dropped to historically low levels. Reviewing the past eight similar low-volatility periods, the median absolute price change of Bitcoin over the subsequent 60 days has reached about 30.2%, with four instances of increases and four instances of decreases.Based on the current price of approximately $64,000, a 30% upward volatility would target a price of about $83,200; if it goes downward, it would be around $44,800. Farrell also pointed out that Bitcoin's approximately 2% rebound this Monday was mainly driven by short covering, and the future direction remains unclear, while the continuous rise in real bond yields poses the greatest downside risk at present.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft stated that the current low volatility environment of Bitcoin (BTC) does not necessarily indicate an investment opportunity, and the market may be forming a "volatility trap."Schultze-Kraft pointed out that the implied volatility of BTC is currently in the lowest 2% range of historical distribution, but the volatility level priced in the options market is still about 1.5 times that of the actual market volatility performance.He noted that the "volatility trap score" constructed by Glassnode has currently reached 91/100, the highest level in over 3.5 years. Schultze-Kraft believes that although the current market appears to be in an extremely low volatility state, the options prices do not fully reflect the actual trends, and the volatility premium paid by investors may be relatively high.This indicator shows that the market is experiencing a rare phase of volatility compression. Historically, similar extreme low volatility environments often create conditions for subsequent volatility expansion, but the specific direction still depends on capital flows, the macro environment, and market catalysts.

According to analysis by BIT official Chinese (@BITofficial_CN), the 7-day implied volatility of Bitcoin has fallen below the 30% mark to 25%, similar to the low volatility period in the summer of 2023.In the context of relatively low option prices, analysts suggest that investors consider a "spot replacement strategy" ------ selling part of their Bitcoin spot holdings, replacing it with a bullish call spread or directly buying call options, which can retain upside exposure. If the price continues to decline, the maximum loss is limited to the option premium, and the released funds can also earn interest elsewhere.

The latest report from 10x Research indicates that Bitcoin trading volume has dropped to a small fraction of the peak levels seen after the U.S. presidential inauguration and during the flash crash last October, while the price has entered one of the narrowest volatility ranges in months. Historically, similar low-volatility states are often difficult to sustain in the long term.Additionally, options flow shows that traders' market confidence is changing, and positions have begun to adjust. Bitcoin's implied volatility has also fallen to a low level rarely seen outside of the summer off-season, while ETF inflows remain weak, and stablecoins continue to flow out of the crypto market. Strategy, which was once one of the most stable buyers in the market, has become a seller for four consecutive weeks.

According to Binance spot market data, the market has experienced significant fluctuations. LINK has risen by 10.68% in the last 24 hours, reaching a new high for today, while LINK also hit a new high for this week.On the other hand, BICO has dropped by 16.39% in the last 24 hours and is in a "pullback" state. The other tokens GTC, YGG, BMT, and HAEDAL are also in a "pullback" state, with declines of 5.06%, 5.57%, 8.12%, and 7.24%, respectively.At the same time, MITO and AT have increased by 6.82% and 12.01%, respectively, and are in a "bottoming rebound" state.NEAR has also reached a new high for this week, with an increase of 6.11%.