Matrixport Market Observation: BTC and ETH Lead the Way, Is the Digital Asset Market Welcoming Multiple Policy Benefits?

Last week (June 24 - July 1), the BTC price fluctuated between $105,000 and $107,000, while ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of $255 million, driving the price surge. Influenced by positive news, long-term bullish expectations for BTC and gold have increased. During the week, BTC price fluctuated widely between $105,000 and $107,000, with a maximum increase of 9.21%, currently stabilizing around $106,751. ETH price soared, repeatedly breaking through the key resistance level of $2,500, reaching a high of $2,525, and currently retracing to around $2,446, with a maximum volatility of 15.4% (Binance spot, July 2, 14:20).

The three major U.S. stock indices rose for three consecutive days, with the S&P 500 breaking through 6,200 points for the first time. In the first half of 2025, the market was disturbed by Trump's tariff policy, leading to continuous fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, which is currently gradually recovering. By the last trading day of the first half, the Dow Jones had accumulated a rise of 3.64%, the S&P 500 rose by 5.5%, and the Nasdaq rose by 5.48%.

Market Interpretation

ETH capital inflow resonates with ecological development, enhancing ETH price momentum

ETH price rose by 3.5% within 24 hours on June 30. Institutional demand is strong, with a CoinShares report showing that ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of $255 million last week, accumulating nearly $2.9 billion this year. Meanwhile, 35 million ETH are staked on-chain, accounting for 28% of the total supply, with liquidity supply continuing to decline.

Robinhood announced the development of an L2 network based on Arbitrum, planning to support ETH staking and tokenized stocks, demonstrating confidence in ETH's scalability prospects. ETH co-founder Buterin recently proposed a zero-knowledge proof digital identity solution to support Web3 privacy and compliance. The EthCC conference held in Cannes, France attracted over 6,400 developers, with industry focus on protocol innovation and application implementation.

Fiscal divergence intensifies, BTC and gold may benefit from safe-haven demand

Recently, Trump reiterated that "economic growth will offset the deficit," drawing market attention during the debate over his latest tax reform bill. BTC subsequently rose, with a 0.54% increase over 24 hours on June 30. Influenced by ongoing loose fiscal policies and deficit expectations, the market's attraction to traditional fixed-income assets like U.S. Treasuries has decreased, with funds shifting towards hard assets like BTC and gold to hedge against inflation and fiscal risks.

As the controversy over large-scale tax cuts and fiscal stimulus policies in the U.S. intensifies, the deficit continues to expand, and expectations for currency devaluation and inflation rise. Gold and BTC, as anti-inflation and safe-haven assets, are expected to see their attractiveness continue to increase in the future. Recently, BTC price fluctuations have increased, with clear signs of capital inflow, reflecting investors' sensitive reactions to macro policy risks.

U.S. Senate advances "Big and Beautiful" bill, new changes for crypto taxation and compliance

On July 1, the U.S. Senate advanced the "Big and Beautiful" bill with a vote of 51:49, covering various measures including tax cuts and fiscal spending, sparking controversy over the deficit and national debt levels. The bill proposes an amendment to exempt small crypto transactions (single transactions under $300, annual cumulative $5,000) from taxes, which, if passed, would simplify the tax process for crypto users and reduce daily compliance costs. Along with the advancement of the "GENIUS Act," the regulatory and tax environment for the U.S. crypto industry is accelerating its transformation, with institutions expecting stablecoins and on-chain payments to benefit further, strengthening the trend of industry compliance.

XRP daily trading volume plummets 54%, market sentiment turns cautious

Ripple announced it would abandon its cross-appeal with the SEC, and the XRPL was upgraded to 2.5.0, introducing several new features. The launch of XRP micro-futures by Robinhood did not lead to a rebound in trading volume. On June 30, XRP's daily trading volume plummeted by 54% to $1.38 billion, with the price slightly rising to $2.19. The sharp decline in trading volume reflects investor caution, with future innovations and compliance progress becoming key observation points for activity.

Circle's listing shows "ice and fire," core value and valuation continue to attract attention

After its listing, Circle (CRCL) saw its market value soar to $63 billion, with its stock price rising over 700%, significantly higher than its actual USDC circulation scale, recently retracing over 15%. Circle relies on USDC reserve interest for over 95% of its revenue, making future performance highly sensitive to interest rates and total USDC supply. USDC supply has surpassed $61 billion, with capital efficiency far exceeding the industry average; whether it can fulfill high growth expectations still depends on market share expansion and new compliance opportunities.

Hong Kong clarifies stamp duty exemption for tokenized ETFs, supporting digital asset market development

The Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau recently released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0," proposing to promote the tokenization of various assets, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy. The policy clarifies that the existing stamp duty exemption applicable to traditional ETFs also applies to tokenized ETFs, eliminating market concerns and facilitating future secondary market trading on licensed digital asset platforms. This move is seen as another substantial benefit for Hong Kong to accelerate the development of the digital asset and tokenized financial product ecosystem.

Matrixport's professional RWA tokenization platform, Matrixdock, holds a Class A financial services license from Hong Kong Customs and can legally engage in gold and precious metals trading. It has launched the gold token XAUm, which can be exchanged 1:1 for LBMA-certified physical gold bars with 99% purity. Recently, Matrixdock also plans to successively launch tokenized products for silver, platinum, and palladium, further enriching its precious metal asset token ecosystem.

Market Highlights

U.S. June non-farm payroll data to be released early, holiday impacts market liquidity

Due to the Independence Day holiday, the U.S. June non-farm employment report will be released early on July 3 (Wednesday) at 20:30 (Beijing time). On that day, U.S. stocks and CME stock index futures will close early, and U.S. stock markets will be closed on July 4, with related futures contracts also ending trading early. Investors need to pay attention to the data release time and liquidity changes, being cautious of the risks brought by market fluctuations and liquidity decline during the holiday period.

Mastercard joins Global Dollar Network, expanding stablecoin cooperation landscape

Mastercard announced its membership in the stablecoin alliance Global Dollar Network (GDN), initiated by Paxos and including well-known platforms like Robinhood and Kraken. GDN supports members in jointly minting USDG, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar, and sharing interest income from reserve assets (such as U.S. Treasuries). Mastercard also plans to support various stablecoins, including PayPal's PYUSD and Fiserv's FIUSD, integrating them into its Mastercard Move cross-border remittance network, accelerating the application of digital currencies in payment and transfer fields.

Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation to take effect, enhancing financial efficiency and risk prevention

Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation will take effect on August 1, 2025, requiring all businesses issuing or providing fiat-pegged stablecoins in Hong Kong to obtain a license, maintain 100% high liquidity asset reserves, ensure 1:1 redemption and real-time redemption, and strengthen anti-money laundering and transparency regulations. Hong Kong aims to strike a balance between innovation and risk prevention, steadily upgrading to an international digital financial hub.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.