Web3 AI Daily Review (2024/9/10)

I. Attention Value - Market Highlights

1. Market Trends

(1) Macroeconomic Field:

l Apple falls nearly 1% in pre-market trading

The market is awaiting the U.S. inflation data tomorrow night, with little fluctuation in the futures of the three major U.S. indices before the market opens. Following the release of the iPhone 16, Apple is down nearly 1% in pre-market trading. The latest survey from the New York Fed shows that consumer inflation expectations for the next three years have risen, with mixed expectations for the labor market.

l Wall Street bear Wilson: If the Fed aggressively cuts rates, yen arbitrage may return

Michael Wilson, Wall Street's biggest bear, pointed out that if the Fed cuts rates by more than 25 basis points, it could lead to a rise in the yen, making dollar assets less attractive. This could result in a repeat of the global stock market crash seen in early August, putting pressure on U.S. tech stocks.

(2) Web3 Field:

l Bitcoin spot ETF ends 8-day consecutive net outflow, on-chain data shows risks are not fully cleared

From August 27 to September 7, Bitcoin continued to decline, falling below $60,000 and triggering panic in the market. According to Coingecko data, Bitcoin dropped from about $64,265 on August 26 to $53,923 on September 7, with the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experiencing a net outflow for eight consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $1.2 billion, and the total net assets of the ETF shrinking by about $8.8 billion, a rare occurrence since the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF. On the evening of September 9, Bitcoin stopped falling and rebounded, while Sosovalue data showed that the daily net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF turned positive, indicating an improvement in market sentiment. However, Trading View's technical analysis shows that the market sell signal remains strong.

According to Glassnode data, the 7-day moving average SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for Bitcoin has fallen below 1.0, indicating that sellers in the market are still making profits on blockchain transactions. However, historically, SOPR often drops below 1.0 before market consolidation occurs. The current decline resembles the bear market phases of 2018 and 2019, where SOPR remained below 1.0, suggesting a potential market reversal.

Figure 1, Glassnode Prediction

Source: Glassnode, Dot Labs

2. Hot Events

Web3 Field:

l SEC's cryptocurrency enforcement fines for FY 2024 reach $4.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 30 times

On September 10, Cointelegraph reported that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has significantly increased its enforcement actions in the cryptocurrency industry for FY 2024. According to a report released by Social Capital Markets, the total fines imposed by the SEC on cryptocurrency companies and executives have surged to $4.7 billion, up from $150.3 million in FY 2023, an increase of 3018%.

According to Mars Finance, on September 10, an official announcement revealed that Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced its "Management's Exercise of the Eleventh Round of Stock Purchase Rights," which will raise 299.7 million yen through the exercise of 540,000 stock options, with stock delivery expected to begin on September 18. The funds raised will be used to purchase Bitcoin.

3. Hot Narratives

Overall, despite a month-on-month increase in daily active users, trading volume, and transaction value in August, the decline in the market capitalization of blockchain gaming tokens still highlights the challenges faced by the overall cryptocurrency market, with both token prices and market capitalization showing a downward trend. Against the backdrop of market volatility, Soneium has become a hot topic. On August 23, Sony Group and Startale Labs jointly launched the Sony Blockchain Solutions Labs, announcing the introduction of a new Layer 2 network based on Ethereum—Soneium. This network will utilize Optimism's OP Stack technology, bridging gaming, entertainment, and finance, combining Web3 innovation with consumer applications.

In the week following the announcement, Soneium made rapid progress, including the launch of the "Minato" testnet, the initiation of the "Soneium Spark" program for developers, and a partnership with Transak to provide global fiat deposit services. As industry giants like Sony continue to enter the blockchain space, there is growing optimism about bringing more users into the Web3 ecosystem.

4. Potential Catalysts

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Polymarket predicts a 27% chance of Trump winning the September 10 election debate, while Kamala Harris's chances have decreased by 2% to 73%. The current betting pool totals $182,600. The campaign website of U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has released a proposed policy stance list for her future presidential administration, which does not mention cryptocurrency-related topics. On the new issues page of her campaign website, some text mentions support for "American innovation and workers." Among these, the Democratic candidate has pledged to support the development of the artificial intelligence industry and emphasized the importance of nurturing "other cutting-edge industries of the future." Additionally, Harris's campaign website compares Trump's 2025 policy agenda, repeatedly emphasizing the rationale behind Harris's related policies.

II. Attention Value - Hot Projects

1. Social Media Highlights

Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer 2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July of this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for trading. Although recent declines in $ETH have been caused by reduced income and whale exits, the market remains generally optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.

Key Projects:

• WELL3

WELL3 is a decentralized health platform launched by Yogapetz that incentivizes users to participate in health activities by converting health data into valuable rewards. The project adopts a "Wellness to Earn" (W2E) model, allowing users to earn $WELL rewards by participating in activities such as yoga and meditation. Its personalized AI assistant can customize health guidance based on individual preferences and needs, and the assistant can continuously learn more about the user through interactions, providing more effective health advice. The project will also be applied to MR devices such as Apple Vision Pro in the future.

Earlier this year, Yogapetz raised over $5 million from seed round financing and NFT sales, with investors including Animoca Brands, Newman Group, and Soul Capital Partners. $WELL was launched in July this year, but due to technical issues, the airdrop could not be claimed on the launch day, causing a more than 60% drop in secondary market prices, although prices have recently rebounded.

2. Smart Money Accumulation

• Smart Money Holdings

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. MIGGLES (@MrMigglesOnBase /X)

Mister Miggles is a meme project on Base, where Coinbase has increased project exposure and participation by releasing cat videos and related NFTs, as well as launching the "Onchain Summer" event to encourage on-chain creation. The project saw a more than 900-fold increase within three days of its launch in July this year, attracting market attention.

2. $WIF (@dogwifcoin /X)

$WIF is a meme coin based on Solana, which first launched in mid-December 2023. Leveraging the popularity of another dog-themed meme coin, $Bonk, $WIF successfully became the second meme token on Solana with a market capitalization exceeding $100 million.

• Smart Money Inflows

Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs

Project Overview:

1. LIT (@bunni_xyz /X)

The DeFi yield protocol Timeless launched its token $LIT (Liquidity Incentive Token) in January 2023 to incentivize users to provide liquidity on Uniswap v3. In 2023, Timeless established a new protocol called Bunni, which helps liquidity providers earn yields more effectively, making it easier for Uniswap liquidity to be integrated into other applications, thereby driving Timeless Finance to establish a flywheel effect.

2. CLOUD (@sanctumso /X)

Sanctum is a liquid staking protocol that introduces the concept of liquid staking tokens (LST) into the Solana ecosystem and has launched various innovative solutions, including multi-asset liquidity pools. Sanctum opens unique opportunities for the Solana DeFi user community, providing users with a highly flexible, multi-LST liquid staking environment. The project will launch its native governance token $CLOUD in July 2024.

III. Attention Value - Sector Rotation

1. Hot Sectors

Source: Dune, Dot Labs

Source: Dune, Dot Labs

2. Internal Sector

Source: Dune, Dot Labs