What will the market look like next? What is the highest price Bitcoin could reach in the bull market of 2025?

Source: Talk Li Talk Wai

With Trump winning the U.S. election the day before yesterday, today (November 8), the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% (the second rate cut this year, in line with market expectations), market sentiment continues to soar, and Bitcoin has consecutively broken historical highs, reaching $76,990.

Although the outcome of the U.S. election will have a long-term impact on the crypto market, we should not overlook the short-term volatility risks. In this week's Bitcoin rally, in just the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount in the crypto market exceeded $348 million, with over 96,000 people liquidated. Meanwhile, the open interest for Bitcoin on exchanges has reached a historical high of $46.6 billion, which usually indicates that there may be greater volatility ahead or that the short-term peak has been reached. Please avoid FOMO and try to stay away from leverage.

In our previous article on Talk Li Talk Wai (November 5), we mentioned that the crypto market has never lacked hot topics, and almost every so often, a new significant event becomes the focus of attention and discussion. Now, with the U.S. election in November and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's second rate cut coming to fruition, people will likely soon begin to look for or focus on the next new event.

From a short-term perspective: The reason Bitcoin's price can break historical highs is mainly due to the emotional impact of Trump's victory in the U.S. election, which we have elaborated on in previous articles on Talk Li Talk Wai. Currently, the leverage in the crypto market has significantly increased, so we cannot rule out the possibility of a short-term adjustment.

From a medium to long-term perspective: As we have forecasted in previous articles, with Bitcoin's breakthrough, a new bull market has arrived. Although there may be some adjustments in the short term, this is normal because the market cannot rise in a straight line; there will always be some adjustments along the way. However, if you are still on the sidelines at this stage, still thinking of waiting for Bitcoin to drop below $40,000 to buy the dip, then you will likely continue to miss out on this bull market.

So, how high can Bitcoin's price go in this bull market?

In fact, we have had some thoughts and speculations on this question since our articles began in 2022. Although personally, I am reluctant to discuss any market predictions or price forecasts too much, as a blogger, I know many people (especially newcomers) enjoy this kind of content, so I will occasionally do some market analysis or price predictions (guesses).

As for Bitcoin's price, for example, in the article on February 14, 2024, we made some simple considerations about market trends from four different dimensions. At that time, we further made a subjective prediction for BTC's price, leaning towards the range of $100,000 to $120,000, and this range will also be where I start considering selling in batches. As shown in the figure below.

Of course, we still hold the old saying that the market is unpredictable, and all so-called predictions are merely guesses based on different people's historical experiences, data, etc. The logical point here should not be to look at what others say, as everyone's risk preferences, position situations, personal experiences, etc., are different; you should make reasonable plans and strategies based on your own situation.

Currently, we maintain our personal expectation (guess) that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 to $120,000 in this cycle, but with Trump's victory leading to a rapid breakthrough of Bitcoin's historical high, combined with the possibility of some new positive measures that Trump may take regarding the crypto market (such as making BTC a strategic reserve asset for the U.S.) and the ongoing expectation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, we even believe that Bitcoin may reach as high as $150,000 next year (2025).

So, how high can Ethereum's price go in this bull market?

As mentioned above, if Bitcoin really can rise above $150,000 next year, then optimistically speaking, ETH has a great chance of reaching $12,000, and SOL may also exceed $450. Some altcoins theoretically could have 5-10 times the potential. If we speculate based on our previous Bitcoin range of $100,000 to $120,000, then ETH's possible price would be $8,000 to $10,000, and SOL's possible price would be $300 to $400. Of course, this is merely a personal guess based on Bitcoin's fundamentals and should not be taken as any investment advice.

At the same time, we can also see some positive influencing factors from other aspects, such as:

- The rise of Coinbase stock

With Trump's victory, the pent-up demand seems to have been significantly reflected. Although traditional off-exchange funds may not consider directly participating in the crypto market for some reasons, the recent rise in Coinbase stock can indicate some issues. As shown in the figure below.

In addition to the performance of Coinbase stock, another point we need to consider is that Coinbase (including the Base chain) and its derivatives (such as staking, DeFi) are fundamentally closely linked to Ethereum. Therefore, from a price expectation perspective, although ETH's price is currently lagging behind Coinbase's performance, it may gradually eliminate this gap in the near future.

Moreover, let's not forget that ETH is still the only tool besides BTC that has ETF products. Currently, Bitcoin continues to create historical highs, and Solana also broke its market cap historical high today (November 8), making ETH also worthy of our continued expectations.

- CEX is experiencing a large inflow of stablecoins

On the day after the U.S. election, the inflow of stablecoins into exchanges like Binance and Coinbase reached a total of $9.3 billion, marking the second-largest influx of ERC-20 stablecoins since their inception. Generally speaking, this is a very positive signal because a significant portion of this capital may be used to purchase BTC or altcoins. As shown in the figure below.

Historically, the massive inflow of funds from September 2020 to February 2021 and the subsequent upward trend coincided with a bull market rebound. If history can repeat itself, the current large influx may similarly trigger a similar upward trend, and the crypto market may experience another bullish rebound.

Additionally, we must mention the issue of MemeCoins again. In our previous article on Talk Li Talk Wai, we noted that the trend of MemeCoins seems to be at a phase peak, and perhaps we will soon see some altcoin narratives rapidly rotate again.

As Bitcoin continues to break historical highs this week, I have noticed that some projects under the DeFi category have indeed rebounded well, such as UNI, AAVE, etc. As shown in the figure below.

Previously, due to some regulatory pressure from the SEC, many altcoins, except for BTC, were considered securities, which prevented many altcoins from being actively traded in the U.S. market. However, with Trump's administration, perhaps these issues may see some new changes.

We expect that before the first or second quarter of 2025, some altcoins may be re-focused and traded, and then some liquidity from MemeCoins may flow back into the altcoin narrative. However, during this process, due to the uniqueness of this cycle's MemeCoin narrative, we may continuously see a few stories of people getting rich from Memes (i.e., a few MemeCoins will continue to rise), but the probability of a large-scale MemeCoin cycle surge will significantly decrease.

In summary, from a medium to long-term perspective, we will continue to maintain an optimistic attitude towards the overall development of the market. Regardless, we firmly believe that Bitcoin will eventually reach above $100,000. But you should also pay attention to short-term volatility; this week or in the coming weeks, with the election and rate cut expectations coming to fruition, the market may experience sideways consolidation or a short-term decline.

It seems that everyone can make money in a bull market, but many people often incur losses in the later stages of the bull market. Be sure to have your own plan and position management. If you are making short-term trades, pay attention to taking profits and cutting losses. If you are still on the sidelines and want to seize the last opportunity of this bull market, then it's time to seriously think about and adjust your strategy, because bull markets do not last forever.