Is Bitcoin about to challenge $100,000? Is it too late to enter the market now?

Source: Talking Li and Talking Outside

This week, Bitcoin continues to break historical highs, reaching around $93,000, seemingly not far from the $100,000 milestone that many people are looking forward to. However, a question that many may be facing now is: Is it too late to enter the market? With the current Memes sentiment high, should I also jump in? Do the numerous altcoins I hold still have a chance?

I remember in previous articles from Talking Li and Talking Outside, we mentioned that a new bull market could only be expected after Bitcoin breaks its previous high (which was around $73,000 in March this year). Bitcoin serves as a barometer for the overall crypto market; although not everyone holds Bitcoin, I believe many should know that Bitcoin's continuous new highs often signify the official start of a bull market.

As the bull market officially kicks off, Bitcoin's insane surge is accompanied by increasing media coverage of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and more new retail investors are starting to pay attention and join this field. In recent days, I have also been monitoring the ranking of Coinbase in the App Store, and I found that the app's ranking has risen rapidly, climbing from 360th to 13th in just a week (in the US region). As shown in the image below.

Here we can briefly review the historical rankings of Coinbase:

On November 25, 2020, Coinbase ranked 73rd in all app downloads (at that time, BTC was around $18,000). By April 16, 2021, this ranking rose to 2nd (when BTC reached around $64,000), and then on October 28, 2021, it climbed back to 1st (after experiencing a sharp drop during the 519 incident, BTC price rose back to around $64,000).

On November 4, 2024, Coinbase ranked 475th in all app downloads, and by November 15, 2024, this ranking rose to 13th.

As for the usefulness of this data, it has been introduced and shared in previous articles from Talking Li and Talking Outside. Specifically, you can refer to the Bitcoin price trends corresponding to the above dates for auxiliary reference.

Additionally, we can also observe through Google Trends that as mainstream media began reporting on Bitcoin, retail investors' attention to this field has returned to a relatively high level, similar to that of the first quarter of 2024, as shown in the image below.

From the above image, we can also briefly review the corresponding history:

In May 2021, Bitcoin's search index soared, primarily due to the 519 incident, which drew widespread attention to cryptocurrencies.

In June 2022, Bitcoin's search index also reached a high point, as the collapse of LUNA and UST triggered a series of chain reactions, including the bankruptcy of major players like 3AC (then the largest venture capital firm in the crypto market), Celsius, and FTX, which also attracted significant public attention.

In fact, it is not difficult to see from people's attention that most ordinary retail investors only became aware of (or re-aware of) the crypto field through extensive reporting by mainstream media. One scenario is that significant events in the crypto market attract attention, while another is that Bitcoin, after experiencing a new cycle, creates history again and draws attention. Currently, it seems that people's focus is more on Bitcoin's price continuously breaking historical records.

Of course, in addition to using the changes in Coinbase's rankings and Google Trends data as auxiliary references for market sentiment, there are many other reference dimensions or indicators regarding the crypto market's trends or sentiments. Different people may focus on different points; just find those reference indicators that suit you for assistance.

In summary, based on some current signs, it seems that Bitcoin's peak is about to arrive. So, is it too late to enter the market now? Let's continue to discuss:

1. Bitcoin has not yet shown peak signals

I wonder how many partners remember that in previous articles from Talking Li and Talking Outside, we shared several long-cycle data indicators for Bitcoin, such as MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, The Puell Multiple, Pi Cycle Top Indicator, Rainbow Chart, 2-Year MA Multiplier, 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap, The Golden Ratio Multiplier, RHODL, AASI, AHR999, and so on.

For those interested in these indicators, you can search and review the corresponding historical articles from Talking Li and Talking Outside, as shown in the image below.

In addition to this, we can also make auxiliary judgments through many different data perspectives, such as:

• BTC ETF. Although since yesterday (November 14), there has been over $400 million in outflows from ETFs, this outflow is not large compared to the inflow in previous days, so everyone should continue to observe and pay attention to changes in this data. As shown in the image below.

• BTC Funding Rate. The BTC funding rate has remained relatively low since breaking $80,000, which seems to indicate that people's purchasing demand for BTC has not truly reached a peak of sentiment. Typically, the end of a bull market is often accompanied by the driving force of Perps. As shown in the image below.

Of course, data indicators sometimes have a certain lag, and we should not wait for peak signals to trade; instead, we should execute operations based on our risk preferences and position management plans. Just like I cannot guarantee that I will always buy at the lowest point, I use a dollar-cost averaging strategy to accumulate Bitcoin. Similarly, I cannot guarantee that I will sell at the highest point in a bull market, so as mentioned in previous articles from Talking Li and Talking Outside, I set a first profit-taking target and a plan for phased selling, where the first profit-taking target is merely a theoretical deduction, and the phased selling targets will be determined based on the current market trend. However, if after reaching the phased selling target the market trend still appears to be upward, I will also consider strictly following trading discipline to execute phased reduction operations.

2. Altcoins have not performed well yet

Currently, ETH and some blue-chip altcoin projects have not reached their ATH. Even SOL, which has been very hot in this cycle, is still 14% away from its ATH. As for ETH, it is even further away, with a 31% gap from its ATH.

At this stage, aside from BTC, everyone's attention is almost entirely focused on various MemeCoins. However, I personally belong to the traditional camp; compared to the current popularity of various MemeCoins, I still have more faith in ETH's development. I believe ETH will definitely break its ATH, and when that day comes, it may bring about rotation opportunities in some altcoin sectors.

From historical experience, once BTC rises to a certain level and stabilizes, some altcoins will definitely welcome new upward opportunities because the underlying investment logic remains unchanged: investors will always chase after things with greater upward potential.

From the current situation, according to the expectations (speculations) in previous articles from Talking Li and Talking Outside, BTC may still have 30%-70% upward space in this bull market cycle, but in terms of altcoins, this upward potential is theoretically much larger. The only difference from previous historical cycles is that the number of new projects born in this cycle is severely overloaded, and the development of MemeCoins seems to have completely captured most people's attention, which I believe is not a good thing for the healthy development of altcoins or even the entire crypto industry.

3. When will the altcoin market arrive?

We mentioned several factors affecting the arrival of the altcoin market: ETH has not broken its ATH, the number of projects is severely overloaded, and MemeCoins have attracted most people's attention.

So, if we theoretically speculate, when will the altcoin market arrive?

Currently, our expectation is that we need to wait for Bitcoin to stabilize. Whether BTC directly breaks $100,000 or $150,000, only after BTC stabilizes can the altcoin market possibly begin. During this process, it is likely to still be the stage for MemeCoins, accompanied by various stories of overnight wealth, attracting more and more retail investors to pay attention and join this field.

In previous articles from Talking Li and Talking Outside, we optimistically estimated that the altcoin market in this cycle might occur in the first quarter of 2025. This timing consideration mainly reflects the underlying issue of market liquidity, as since mid-2022, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its balance sheet, and this operation is actually bearish for alternative assets (such as crypto assets).

In other words, unless the Federal Reserve signals a stop to QT (Quantitative Tightening), we believe the altcoin market (the so-called Altseason) cannot be launched on a large scale.

The potential good news is that the Federal Reserve is likely to signal a stop to QT at the FOMC meeting next month (December), which may mark the imminent start of Altseason. Therefore, we previously optimistically expected that the altcoin market might arrive in the first quarter of next year (2025).

Of course, all of the above are our subjective speculative judgments and should not be taken as any investment reference. However, if our speculation holds true, then now is still one of the better times for you to choose altcoins; just pay more attention to the leading projects in popular sectors.

In summary, based on the current situation, the crypto market has not yet reached the peak of this bull market cycle. This stage seems more like the main players are working hard to attract retail investors to rush in and are cultivating the belief that they can make money (by entering the crypto market). Through extensive reporting by mainstream media and discussions among people around them, it seems that people are beginning to realize they should participate in cryptocurrencies. From a broader perspective, there are also expectations for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year and potential measures that Trump may take after officially taking office, which suggests that some traditional institutions and large funds are also maintaining a wait-and-see attitude or are in the process of deploying.

After all, since sticking to dollar-cost averaging since 2022, we have once again endured a lot of loneliness and volatility, and now we have finally reached the anticipated bull market. We just need to be a little more patient and wait until the market fully enters a FOMO and bubble state, then we can execute our exit plan as planned.

Bull markets are often the best opportunities to make money because the market is mostly upward during this period. However, bull markets do not continuously rise; we may still face some pullbacks, and it is even possible that corrections of over 30% may occur later. But do not be afraid; it is even more important to remain calm at this time. Please continue to strictly control your positions and focus on your goals, adhering strictly to your trading discipline. The later stages of a bull market are often the most dangerous for most retail investors, and many end up losing money during this phase. Also, be cautious to avoid leveraged trading; if you don't understand it, don't touch it. Good luck to everyone.