Decoding Trump's Currency: It Will Completely Alienate America's "Marius' Stick"

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2025-01-20 16:25:07
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If he really only aims to "harvest leeks"... then that would be good.

Author: Xiaoxi Cicero, Dante by the River of Forgetfulness

Hello everyone, yesterday we summarized Biden (written on the last day of the "Biden Era"), and today I want to talk about the soon-to-be-inaugurated Trump. He chose to launch a meme coin named after himself on the eve of his inauguration. As reported, this coin skyrocketed over 20,000% in a short time, with a current market cap exceeding $20 billion.

To be honest, it took me a whole day to convince myself that this was not some fake news as Trump often says, because I find this situation utterly absurd. A president-elect of the United States chooses to launch his own meme coin on the eve of taking office? The impact of this is no less than that of a virtuous and devout nun announcing her decision to enter the adult film industry just before being canonized by the Roman Catholic Church. I even doubted whether Trump was planning to step down.

However, upon further reflection, I think he might indeed have his own plans—but if this plan succeeds, it could very well push the future of the United States and even all of humanity into an unknown, high-risk abyss.

Allow me to use a lengthy article to analyze the logic behind Trump's actions and the costs and risks involved.

Before officially starting the article, I would like to apologize to two groups of readers who will undoubtedly be offended by this piece and clarify my stance.

The first group of readers is the die-hard Trump supporters in China.

If you are a long-time reader of mine, you should know that I have generally been a friendly and moderate author towards Trump in the simplified Chinese media circle. Many of my initial readers were sympathizers or even staunch supporters of Trump. However, I believe that while it is okay to sympathize with and support Trump, it must not turn into a cult of personality. If your support for Trump reaches the point where "whatever Trump supports, we firmly back; whatever Trump opposes, we firmly criticize," then what is the essential difference between your support for Trump and the extreme cult of personality that you despise? It not only deviates from the valuable principles of conservative liberalism but also represents a significant betrayal of modern democratic and legal concepts.

We believe in and follow ideas and systems, and it should never be about individuals. This truth transcends all ideological disputes. Those who do not acknowledge it lack modernity. In the world of "Water Margin," the character Song Jiang, who kills at the command of others and harms children at their behest, is more fitting for such an image.

The second group of readers is likely the so-called "big shots in the crypto world."

In this article, I will tend to deny that meme coins (note: only meme coins, not all cryptocurrencies) have any positive value.

But even if I phrase it this cautiously, I still expect that some crypto enthusiasts will come to criticize me—"How dare you say that? You clearly don't understand economics!"

There's nothing I can do; I've already boarded the ship, and interests are involved. I generally do not deny the value of meme coins, just as I do not directly tell friends who return from a trip to a certain southwestern region after paying high prices for "silver combs" or "chicken blood jade" that these things are not worth much.

However, I still find the inevitable accusations against me quite surreal—when did it become a symbol of understanding economics to recognize meme coins, altcoins, and scam coins?

I believe this accusation is a typical logical fallacy. Not participating or not affirming means not understanding? Following this line of reasoning, someone who criticizes drug use could be labeled as not understanding enjoyment, and someone who criticizes prostitution could be questioned as being a eunuch. If the followers of the People's Temple or Aum Shinrikyo were to come back, they could also be criticized for their indiscriminate killings and suicides, claiming they "have no idea what a true god is."

I may have said this too harshly, but I want to emphasize that any effective discussion cannot be achieved through name-calling. In this article, I will list the reasons why my overall evaluation of meme coins tends to be negative. If anyone can reasonably and factually refute these reasons, feel free to leave a comment.

But I will not accept any accusations that start with "you don't understand."

The two easiest hats to put on someone in this world are "you don't understand" and "you have ulterior motives"—in other words, the so-called "either foolish or malicious."

I always suspect that those who like to say such things are actually the ones who are either foolish or malicious.

Alright, with that out of the way, if you accept my two points of understanding, then I will take you on a journey of thought.

1. Meme Coins Are Not Coins

Here, I must first educate friends who know nothing about this field. Although the meme coin launched by Trump belongs to the category of digital cryptocurrencies, its issuance logic is fundamentally different from that of Bitcoin.

To put it in a vivid analogy, Bitcoin is more like gold in the real world. Its total issuance is bound by a mathematical model dictated by natural mathematical laws. In other words, even Satoshi Nakamoto, who first proposed and issued Bitcoin, cannot decide how many Bitcoins will be issued; the creation of Bitcoin is determined by countless "mining machines" around the world through computational power.

Meme coins, on the other hand, do not have this characteristic. Strictly speaking, meme coins are not even worthy of being called a coin; they are merely digital private stamps or digital commemorative medals. The total number of meme coins issued initially depends entirely on the "coin owner," who is the sole "mine" and creator of the meme coin.

In fact, meme coins started as a near-satirical joke among internet geeks. For example, Dogecoin, launched in 2013 by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer, features the famous Shiba Inu meme as its mascot. The issuers almost explicitly told you that they were just joking, and those willing to buy the coin were essentially giving money to their creative idea.

However, later on, in the frenzy of "anything can be speculated" in the internet world, a few meme coins unexpectedly retained their trading value.

To this day, the issuance and circulation of meme coins remain highly similar to online gambling—issuers and traders need to first exchange a certain amount of Solana (a kind of voucher) for dollars on a website, register their meme coin wallet, and then they can start trading or issuing coins. The website does not effectively verify the qualifications of the issuers.

So theoretically, anyone (even if you bring a Shiba Inu) can issue a "coin" on such a platform. The value of the meme coin issued entirely depends on how much people are willing to pay for it—in other words, the value of meme coins is entirely dependent on how much "value consensus" they can establish among their fan base, which in turn depends on who their promoters are. It is a pure means of monetizing the fame of celebrities.

Doesn't it sound like meme coins are not really a currency but more like signed photos, private stamps, or commemorative medals given by idols to fans in the past? Yes, stripped of the superficial flashy technical packaging, the essence of meme coins is just that. They are fundamentally different from Bitcoin and have nothing to do with underlying technology or decentralization—in fact, the issuance mechanism of meme coins is exactly the opposite, being even more centralized than traditional currencies, centered around their issuers.

This is crucial, so remember it for later.

Because of this, on the Solana platform where Trump announced the issuance of coins, millions of meme coins are announced every year, but only a tiny fraction can maintain trading value (meaning that the meme coins you hold can still be sold) after the first month of issuance. 99.9999% of meme coins are essentially a game of passing the parcel and online gambling.

In summary, compared to real currencies, meme coins lack any qualification to become a genuine currency.

First, they have no reserves at the time of issuance. Although a few meme coin issuers have promised to redeem their coins at a one-to-one ratio if the price falls below a certain level, to date, no fool has actually done this; all issuers ultimately chose to cash out and run.

Second, there is no central bank to effectively control and regulate them.

Whether meme coins will face issues like "insider trading" depends solely on the issuer's mood and conscience. Given the enormous temptation of profit, no issuer of meme coins has managed to last more than three years without cashing out completely. It has been proven that human consensus and conscience have not progressed to the point where they can "decentralize" the regulatory system of central banks; relying solely on a "gentleman's agreement" between a celebrity and their fans to maintain a currency's value is unrealistic. Do not underestimate human nature.

Finally, and most importantly, they do not possess the natural scarcity that traditional currencies or even Bitcoin have.

The issuance quantity of traditional currencies must be anchored to their reserves; excessive issuance leads to hyperinflation. The issuance quantity of Bitcoin is even more anchored to mathematics; unless God decides that 1+1 no longer equals 2, no one can cause Bitcoin to be overissued.

But where is the guarantee of scarcity for meme coins? Nowhere; it all depends on the issuer's mood.

For example, Trump announced that he would initially issue 200 million of his Trump coins, with an additional 800 million to follow, totaling one billion. This quantity purely depends on his mood and character.

This is why most meme coin issuers choose to cash out and run at certain points—human nature cannot withstand the test of unbounded constraints.

Moreover, I think Trump's words when announcing the coin issuance are quite revealing. Pay attention to his tweet; he stated that he is issuing this coin to "celebrate" our victory.

What is typically issued during a celebration? Signed photos, commemorative medals, right?

When have you ever heard of a country overissuing its fiat currency to celebrate something?

Even if it did happen, that country would be on the brink of collapse.

So meme coins are fundamentally not currency; their aliases "altcoins" and "scam coins" actually reveal their essence.

But with this analysis, a question arises—why would Trump, who should be aware of the nature of meme coins, still insist on issuing them?

The wealthy Trump surely wouldn't be like those low-end influencers, merely looking to "squeeze another wave of profits" and scam some money, right? If that were the case, he should wait four years to do it.

Of course, he is not. He has grand ambitions—

So grand that years later, when Americans look back on this, they might hope: "Oh, Trump, you really just wanted to scam some money and that was it… that would be great!"

2. Does Trump Just Want to "Squeeze Profits"?

Here, I need to clarify a rumor about Trump. After this incident, many people in the simplified Chinese internet circle have been spreading the word that "Trump issued coins and made a fortune (even 'cashed out' xxx billion dollars)." This statement is inaccurate and even disregards the facts to attack Trump.

Whether it's $24 billion or the latest figure of over $100 billion, these numbers refer to the current total market cap of the "Trump coin." Using common stock knowledge, we know that total market cap cannot be directly equated to how much has been "cashed out" or "made." Having a million at home doesn't count if it's in cash. If Trump really intended to imitate some opportunistic coin-launching influencers and cash out all his "Trump coins," it would be akin to "crashing the stock," causing the value of Trump coins to plummet. His profit margin would shrink significantly along with his credibility, and the amount he could cash out would be substantial but far less than the current market cap of Trump coins.

Moreover, to be honest, Trump has his own businesses; he is not some broke influencer eager to monetize his fame. To reduce his coin issuance to merely earning some retirement money is quite laughable—as of 2024, Trump's total assets amount to $3.2725 billion.

So, what difference does it make if he spends $3.2 billion versus the rumored "making" $24 billion?

Thus, the rush to claim that Trump "made a fortune" in the hundreds of billions is a shallow and ridiculous analysis.

It's as absurd as a rural farmer imagining himself as an emperor, thinking "I will control all the dung in the village."

To attribute Trump's coin issuance to a desire for profit is quite humorous.

So why would the wealthy Trump issue coins?

I believe, based on current information, he aims to—hijack or privatize the Republican Party's campaign funds.

Campaign funds are the lifeblood of the American two-party system. The Republican and Democratic parties constantly vie for funds, which essentially boils down to money.

The recently concluded 2024 U.S. election broke records again, becoming the most expensive election in U.S. history, with both parties spending a total of $15.9 billion. This scale is the true "usable" amount for the market cap of "Trump coins."

However, the wool comes from the sheep; the campaign funds of both parties ultimately come from their supporters or industry magnates. But how this money is collected, managed, and spent has always been a key factor in determining the distribution of power within the Republican and Democratic parties.

I still remember the 2016 election when Hillary and Trump ran against each other. The Democratic Party had a rather intriguing internal scandal at that time. The outgoing Obama had a list of major donors who supported him during his campaign. According to the Democratic Party's traditional rules, Obama should have handed this crucial "donor list" directly to his successor, Hillary, during the campaign preparations.

But Obama did not do that! His choice was to hand the list over to the Democratic National Committee, which then passed it on to Hillary.

This caused quite a delay, and Hillary lost to Trump that year, with Obama bearing some of the blame, leading to a rather unpleasant relationship between the two.

But why did Obama choose to do this? There are many explanations.

Some say it reflects the long-standing friction between the Obama and Clinton families, and that Obama was reluctant to endorse Hillary by using his own reputation to fundraise.

Others say that Obama's move aimed to end the long-standing practice within the Democratic Party of families granting "fundraising rights" privately and engaging in secret transactions, thus putting an end to the "godfather" style tradition where families, big shots, and factions dominated.

But regardless, whoever controls the "fundraising rights" is the boss, and they hold the key to whether the party's candidate can be elected.

This truth holds for both the Republican and Democratic parties.

On the Republican side, after the betrayal of the establishment during the "storming of the Capitol" in 2021, Trump, who is making a comeback in 2024, has been focused on transforming the traditional Republican Party into a MAGA party loyal to him. In fact, he was close to achieving this last year.

The biggest sign of Trump's success is that in the 2024 election, the campaign funds raised by the Republican Party no longer go into the party's accounts as in the past, but instead into a private account of Trump's campaign team. This means that how the campaign money is spent, what strategies are used for promotion, who gets funding, and who doesn't, will all be determined by Trump's signature.

This change has led to all Republican campaign activities in 2024 not featuring projects that Trump deemed "unnecessary" or that contradicted him, unlike in 2020.

I must say, he is indeed spending his money more wisely than the Republican establishment.

And you can imagine that if this model continues in the future, even if Trump is limited by term limits and cannot participate in the next election four years from now, the "successor" the Republican Party puts forward will certainly come from Trump's team or the "MAGA party."

But how can this "ideal future" be guaranteed?

The answer may lie in—Trump coins.

In the first part of the article, we analyzed that meme coins (let's just call them meme coins for convenience) have no real value; they have only been used for monetizing the influence of internet celebrities, "squeezing profits and running."

But in Trump's case, he may develop a different use for meme coins—Trump could use them to "dilute" the support enthusiasm of voters for the Republican Party, which has only erupted during election periods, and transform it into long-lasting support and admiration for himself.

To put it simply:

If you are a center-right or right-wing voter in the U.S. who identifies with the Republican Party's ideals and generally agrees with Trump's positions, your main means of expressing support for the Republican Party and Trump in the past was to donate to the party's account during election periods, or at most, register as a volunteer to help with campaigning.

But with the launch of Trump's coin, the situation changes. Now, if you have right-wing enthusiasm and want to shout "Make America Great Again!" or "Let America be great again!" you can immediately log onto the Solana chain, use your real money to buy a few Trump coins, and then tell yourself, "I am supporting Trump with my actions!"

This way, that portion of support is conveniently solidified through Trump coins.

And the enthusiasm of right-wing voters in the U.S. is thus digested (or more accurately, "stored up") in the ordinary course of things.

But please note, the ultimate beneficiary of this digestion and storage will no longer be the Republican Party, but Trump himself.

Four years later, when the Republican Party needs to use this energy to organize a campaign, they will find that it may be difficult to raise funds using traditional methods. Supporters will say, "I already bought Trump coins!" At that point, the Republican Party will have to beg Trump, who has already "stored up" the support funds of American right-wing voters.

Whether or not to give this money, and to whom, will depend on the whims of "King Trump."

We can even make a more extreme assumption (though based on current economic knowledge, I find this assumption overly sci-fi):

If four years from now, Trump coins do not lose value like ordinary meme coins but continue to circulate at high trading values, what would happen?

The conclusion is that it could really become a "universal token" for allocating campaign funds within the American right-wing political groups.

For example, if a certain candidate's actions deeply resonate with Trump, he could reward them with tens of thousands of "Trump coins," allowing them to exchange them for campaign funds from right-wing supporters, potentially leading to their election as a congressman.

If this assumption becomes reality, it would mean that Trump would not only control the financial power of the Republican Party in the four-year presidential elections but also the financial power of state legislators and governors, and even the financial power of right-wing media during their promotional activities.

What a terrifying level of control this would be, with mobilization and dictatorship that no previous U.S. president has ever possessed.

Thus, Trump's vision is sharp. As analyzed in the first part, meme coins are fundamentally different from Bitcoin; they are not decentralized but are, in fact, more centralized than traditional currencies. Trump recognized this and chose this seemingly ridiculous avenue to attempt to fulfill his ambitions.

The Roman emperors printed their portraits on coins, which was merely a nominal claim to monetary sovereignty. In reality, Roman emperors had no way to control or constrain the flow of political funds.

But if Trump's "Trump coins" succeed, they could indeed create an unprecedented and terrifying level of control over American politics.

However, the ambitions of any strongman will always come at a cost.

We must ask, what price will America pay for Trump's actions?

3. The "Marius's Stick" Alienating America

In ancient Roman history, there is a famous concept known as "Marius's Stick." Historians say that it was precisely Marius's Stick that pried Rome away from a republic and into an empire.

Roughly speaking, this historical shift occurred as follows—ancient Rome originally practiced a citizen-soldier system where Roman citizens farmed and conducted business, and when war broke out, they would leave their livelihoods behind, bring their own weapons and supplies, and participate in defending their homeland.

However, as the intensity and duration of wars against foreign tribes increased, the citizen-soldier system gradually became inadequate for the demands of warfare. After the brutal Second Punic War and the Jugurthine War, the consul Marius promoted the military reform named after him.

In general, Marius's military reform transformed the previous citizen-soldier obligation into a professional mercenary army, stipulating that any willing and qualified Roman citizen, including those without property, could enlist. The state would directly allocate funds from taxes to purchase weapons or convert them into supplies for the soldiers.

In the short term, Marius's military reform significantly enhanced the combat effectiveness of the Roman army, leading to rapid expansion.

However, in the long term, the reform caused a fatal change in the nature of soldiers—they were no longer simple citizens concerned about their distant hometowns, farms, and families, but rather a group of mercenaries willing to do anything as long as generals or governors paid them, provided supplies, and promised rewards.

The financial structure that previously maintained the republican system in Rome also changed—the citizen-soldiers provided their own weapons and supplies to defend their homeland, and the entire financial system supporting the army was chaotic and decentralized. But now, the governors who controlled soldiers' supplies became the central figures.

Soldiers even referred to governors as "Dominus" (Latin for "lord" or "master"), pledging absolute loyalty to them.

Thus, governors grew powerful, paving the way for figures like Caesar to cross the Rubicon, return, threaten the Senate, and become lifelong dictators.

The term "Marius's Stick" emerged during this time, as soldiers tied their supplies, wages, and spoils of war to a stick, carrying it with them. They humorously referred to it as "Marius's Stick."

The citizens' attachment to their property was thus replaced, and soldiers pledged loyalty not to the republic but to the Dominus who provided for them.

This stick ultimately pried open a historical rift in Rome.

Now, in comparison, we may find that Trump's issuance of "Trump coins" could very well become the "Marius's Stick" that pries open a historical rift in America.

Originally, in the U.S., political figures like the president, despite their immense prestige and influence, could not immediately convert that into cash.

The president's appeal requires a whole set of party and media support, especially their respective financial systems, to mobilize their supporters and convert that into political power for their use.

During this conversion process, the president's appeal is constrained by this series of intermediary tools, and many social elites will question during the mobilization process: Is this call from the president legitimate? Does it conform to American political traditions and norms? Does it align with their own interests?

If it does not, the mobilization cannot be achieved.

This creates a powerful objective constraint that prevents political figures from acting recklessly.

A typical example is the "storming of the Capitol" incident that occurred in 2021.

Although Trump had the intention and ability to mobilize his supporters to "storm the Capitol," he could not invoke the legitimacy and subsequent support from the government and Republican Party system that theoretically should have obeyed him, leading to the failure of that movement.

Even Trump's own Twitter account was banned after the incident.

However, the new method that Trump has invented may very well bypass this mature oversight system—because Trump, through Trump coins, directly converts his influence into cash. As mentioned earlier, this system will replace the entire fundraising apparatus of the Republican Party, completing the "storage" of right-wing support in America. In the future, if Trump needs it, he can directly use Trump coins to allocate funds for political activities to his supporters.

This way, the political power of voters supporting Trump is immediately converted into financial power, which is then transformed back into political power, directly benefiting Trump's staunch supporters. It is akin to the electric drive used in the Porsche Tiger tank favored by Hitler; this method circumvents the existing elite-controlled constraints of American politics.

The result is that, just as provincial governors no longer answer to the republic after Marius's military reform, Trump also finally breaks free from the constraints and control of the "deep state" (which is essentially the existing party mobilization system) that he despises.

But just as Marius's Stick paved the way for Caesar to "cross the Rubicon," what will Trump do with his unrestrained "Marius's Stick"? No one knows.

Please remember, a "convenient shortcut" that bypasses existing institutional constraints is always created by an ambitious individual and ultimately distorted and ruined by a group of greedy speculators.

In the chaotic times of the Roman Empire's "Third Century Crisis," there were absurd events where the Praetorian Guard auctioned off the emperor's position to the highest bidder. Rome became a "cash cow" exploited by the emperor and the Praetorian Guard, turning the noble "public affairs" of Rome into a grotesque business. This was the inevitable consequence of the system established when governors directly supported the army.

Similarly, if Trump's coin issuance follows his plan, the U.S. presidential elections may very well head down a ridiculous path—

For instance, a certain figure announces their candidacy for president, catering to extreme voters with radical policies, and once elected or even just creating a climate of dissent, they openly announce "issuing coins," then squeeze a wave of profits and achieve financial freedom, running away.

Then politics will no longer be politics; slogans, especially extreme ones, will become tools for opportunists to profit.

While I believe Trump himself does not aim for this—his goal, perhaps due to his experiences over the past four years, is to seek revenge and achieve his "crossing the Rubicon" moment against the Democratic Party and the Republican establishment, thereby gaining control of the overall situation.

But undoubtedly, he will become the "originator" in this regard—because he has opened a pathway for the exchange between politics and money that was previously thought impossible, laying the groundwork for more convenient institutional corruption in America.

Because—let me reiterate—any "convenient shortcut" that bypasses existing institutional constraints is always created by an ambitious individual and will ultimately be distorted and ruined by a group of greedy speculators.

What was the original nature of the influence and appeal of political figures like the president?

It should be a public good. It is not an influence that Trump can completely hold for himself. People support Trump because he represents a certain political aspiration of many Americans.

However, when Trump monetizes this social influence, which should belong to the public good, through coin issuance, the money he gains is private. Even if Trump reinvests this money into political activities through "Trump coins," the political influence derived from it only represents his personal will.

This will be the most sophisticated form of "money laundering" (laundering influence) and the most blatant conversion of public resources into private gain.

Will the American system be able to rein in Trump's rampage? It seems quite difficult at present.

Certainly, Congress could pass a law like "presidents or president-elects are not allowed to issue meme coins." But such a law would also require the president's signature and the Supreme Court's approval to ensure it does not violate the Constitution before it can take effect.

In other words, it would have to pass through the legislative, executive, and judicial "cheese holes" to ultimately fill this gap in the institutional cage that the founding fathers of America could never have imagined.

However, at least during Trump's tenure, with his current influence and stubbornness, he will certainly not allow such a self-defeating bill to pass.

Moreover, coin issuance is likely just the first of a series of similar attempts by Trump in the future. Trump himself is a top-notch businessman, and with Musk's support, to be honest, I don't believe a group of politicians can outsmart these two business geniuses.

Thus, a struggle between the establishment and the populists over the destruction of the existing order and the maintenance of it is about to unfold with Trump's return to the White House.

And this will gamble the future and fate of America for the next few centuries.

Two thousand years ago, a very similar struggle played out in Rome, but with Marius's military reform, Caesar crossing the Rubicon, and the public calling for a "new Caesar" due to hunger and cold during Caesar's funeral, the Republican faction was soundly defeated by Caesar's faction, leading Rome to gradually transform from a republic into an empire, and subsequently, it rapidly decayed, ultimately ending absurdly with the barbarian Praetorian Guard auctioning off the imperial throne.

This time, will the Republican resistance be more powerful and resolute? Or is a new Augustus on the path to coronation?

The overture has ended,

The curtain of the theater is rising,

We shall see.

ChainCatcher reminds readers to view blockchain rationally, enhance risk awareness, and be cautious of various virtual token issuances and speculations. All content on this site is solely market information or related party opinions, and does not constitute any form of investment advice. If you find sensitive information in the content, please click "Report", and we will handle it promptly.
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