The SOL spot ETF is expected to be approved as early as mid-March, and cryptocurrency reserves and indices during the Trump era may become a trend of the times

Since the U.S. presidential election, the Trump administration has demonstrated a markedly different cryptocurrency-friendly stance compared to its predecessor. As of the time of writing, Trump has stated on multiple social media platforms that his digital asset executive order has instructed the presidential task force to advance the cryptocurrency strategic reserve, planning to establish a reserve that includes cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). It is foreseeable that the U.S. national cryptocurrency reserve is steadily progressing and is expected to be officially established soon.

What is the regulatory landscape under the new U.S. government?

Let’s outline the regulatory and policy attitudes displayed by the new U.S. government this year.

Since mid-January, following the departure of former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on January 20, the regulatory stance towards cryptocurrency businesses has undergone a significant shift.

Additionally, policy adjustments are not only reflected in the establishment of the special task force for crypto assets on February 4 but are also visually represented in the recent large-scale withdrawal of lawsuits against leading projects such as Coinbase and Uniswap, as well as the concentrated acceptance of spot ETF applications for mainstream tokens like XRP and SOL. These series of measures resonate strongly with the Trump administration's proactive stance in the cryptocurrency field.

Will the SOL spot ETF be approved in mid-March, and is there any basis for this?

According to the current regulatory framework, the listing of a cryptocurrency spot ETF must undergo a dual filing review process. The applicant must first submit a securities registration document S-1 to the SEC for pre-registration, but the final effectiveness of this document is contingent upon the approval of the exchange rule adjustment document 19b-4. It is particularly important to clarify that 19b-4, as a core regulatory requirement, is strictly bound by Section 19(b) of the Securities Exchange Act— the SEC must publish the preliminary review results within 45 days of acceptance and must make a final decision no later than 240 days.

Taking Grayscale Solana Trust, which submitted the earliest 19b-4 form for the SOL spot ETF, as an example, the SEC accepted it on February 12. Although the SEC can reject or delay within the first 30 days, it cannot approve directly, so the earliest possible approval would be on the 30th day, March 14. The statutory deadline for the preliminary review window will fall on March 29, which may release critical regulatory signals. If this application is approved, other SOL spot ETFs (such as Bitwise Solana ETF) that adopt the same exchange rule adjustment scheme may also be released simultaneously, and market liquidity expectations typically initiate pricing reactions at this stage.

If we refer to the extreme approval case of the Bitcoin spot ETF (which was approved on the 240th day after the acceptance of 19b-4), the latest approval date for the SOL spot ETF would be locked in on October 10, 2025. However, under the current regulatory environment, we have reason to believe that a more efficient approval process is possible.

Cryptocurrency reserves and a fairer cryptocurrency index may become the trend of the times

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong commented on the event of "Trump promoting a cryptocurrency reserve plan," stating, "Bitcoin may be the best choice for strategic reserves, the simplest, and as the successor to gold, the story is also the clearest. If people want more diversity, a market cap-weighted index of crypto assets can be established to maintain its fairness."

Currently, cryptocurrency indices that have been launched and are operating stably include SoSoValue's index token MAG7.ssi. Notably, within one hour of Trump announcing the promotion of the national strategic reserve, MAG7.ssi surged over 18%. This is because the index token MAG7.ssi, issued on the Base chain, covers the top seven cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, including the five tokens mentioned by Trump.

SoSoValue analysts indicate that cryptocurrency reserves and a fairer cryptocurrency index may become the trend of the times. Among the seven constituent coins covered by the MAG7.ssi index, which has received significant attention this year, in addition to BTC and ETH already having spot ETFs in the market, four other constituent coins are steadily advancing through SEC document approval for their spot ETFs. As an important opportunity for introducing external liquidity into the cryptocurrency market this year, MAG7.ssi is highly correlated with the overall progress of the industry and possesses high investment value for both left-side and right-side traders.

It is worth noting the differences in compliance paths for special form products: Grayscale has innovatively converted its over-the-counter trust fund into an on-exchange ETF using the S-3 registration form instead of the conventional S-1, but it still needs to meet the exchange rule adjustment requirements of 19b-4. In contrast, Rex Asset Management has taken a different approach, attempting to achieve "regulatory arbitrage" through the N-1 form. This unconventional filing strategy may face more complex procedural obstacles.