A Brief Analysis of the U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve: Not Below Expectations, Significant Impact in the Long Run
The source of the U.S. strategic reserves is confiscated Bitcoin, and the market has long been prepared, which is not below expectations.Author: 0xTodd
TL;DR
The source of the U.S. strategic reserve is confiscated Bitcoin, and the market has long been prepared, which is not below expectations.
Considering that the U.S. is still enforcing laws, in the future, holding Bitcoin = indirectly receiving dividends from the U.S. crackdown on crypto crime.
Over the past 10 years, the U.S. has sold more than 200,000 Bitcoins, and no further sales equate to a soft lock-up, which is more significant than expected.
The worst-case soft lock-up is 4 years, and if things go smoothly, it could be up to 12 years.
The strategic reserve will have a significant positive impact on other countries, which will gradually begin to follow suit.
The market should have been prepared for the U.S. to use confiscated Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, as Trump promised this at Bitcoin 2024.
Moreover, simply not buying is already a strong support. According to Grok3's statistics, from 2014 to last year, the U.S. has dumped more than 200,000 Bitcoins, which is actually hidden selling pressure.
Even strong players like MicroStrategy, after years of accumulation, can only absorb 1/3 of the selling pressure from U.S. law enforcement's Bitcoin.
Now this selling pressure will not flow into the market for at least 4 years. If Vance successfully takes over, that means a 12-year hard lock-up.
Although it is not as immediate as the U.S. buying 1 million Bitcoins on the spot, you should know that the U.S. may continue to enforce laws, and each confiscated Bitcoin will enter this reserve.
Over time, this is equivalent to a slow buyback.
As long as you are not the one doing evil, I believe 99% of people are not, holding Bitcoin means you are sharing in the dividends from the U.S. crackdown on crypto crime.
Because with each crackdown on crypto crime, the Bitcoin you hold is slowly increasing its proportion of the entire network.
Additionally, as the amount of Bitcoin in this strategic reserve continues to increase, we all know—position determines mindset—the U.S. will give more and more preference to Bitcoin.
At the same time, this will have a decisive influence on the attitudes of other smaller countries. Therefore, in the next 1-2 years, we may see a country passing a Bitcoin strategic reserve every so often, and it will have a FOMO effect because the later the reserve is established, the higher the potential costs.
I asked Grok3 to organize this a bit; these countries are either quickly or slowly starting to prepare. With the leading effect of the U.S., these countries will advance much faster.
Keep the faith and stay calm.
