Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.53 trillion, with BTC accounting for 62.35%, which is $1.58 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $233.5 billion, with a 7-day increase of -0.67%, of which USDT accounts for 62.05%.

This week, BTC's price has shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $83,668; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $1,580.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have increased, including: XCN with a 7-day increase of 121.21%, FARTCOIN with a 7-day increase of 82.36%, ORCA with a 7-day increase of 62.25%, and BABY with a 7-day increase of 58.74%.

This week, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $708 million; the net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $82.5 million.

On April 12, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 43 (higher than last week), with the sentiment this week being: 1 day of extreme fear, 5 days of fear, and 1 day of neutrality.

Market prediction: This week, the market experienced extreme fear for one day due to the U.S. imposing excessive tariffs globally, with a slight decrease in on-chain stablecoins, which is not an optimistic situation. There was a significant net outflow from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, and the Ethereum ETF also experienced a net outflow. This week, the U.S. CPI and PPI were far below expectations, and with a 90-day suspension of tariffs (excluding China), market sentiment improved in the latter half of the week, leading to a certain rebound in coin prices.

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May is 16%, lower than last week. It is expected that the market will maintain fluctuations during a period (April-May), with BTC oscillating between $75k and $90k. In terms of potential opportunities, projects with fundamentals like Babylon should be closely monitored, as well as the "Hotcoin New Coin List" to unlock more wealth opportunities.

Understanding the Present

Weekly Major Events Review

1. On April 8, Galaxy Digital announced that its registration statement submitted to the SEC became effective, preparing for a listing on Nasdaq;

2. On April 9, according to FOX BUSINESS, the White House Press Secretary stated that the 104% additional tariffs on China took effect at noon Eastern Time. The 104% additional tariffs will start being levied from April 9;

3. On April 9, according to Crowdfund Insider, Ripple announced the acquisition of Hidden Road Partners for $1.25 billion, entering the multi-asset institutional brokerage space. This acquisition is one of the largest transactions in the crypto industry to date, making Ripple the first crypto company to operate a multi-asset prime brokerage service. The deal was facilitated by FT Partners;

4. On April 9, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. announcement of so-called "reciprocal tariffs" severely impacted international capital markets, with global stock market capitalization shrinking by $10 trillion since the 3rd of this month, slightly more than half of the EU's GDP;

5. On April 10, U.S. President Trump announced that he authorized a 90-day suspension of tariffs, applicable to reciprocal tariffs and the 10% tariffs. The suspension took effect immediately;

6. On April 10, according to market information, after Trump announced the suspension of tariffs on most trading partners, the U.S. stock market surged within minutes, with the S&P 500 index rising over 9%, and the U.S. stock market capitalization increasing by $4 trillion in 10 minutes;

7. On April 10, market news indicated that the SEC has now approved options trading for spot Ethereum ETFs;

8. On April 10, the U.S. Senate confirmed Paul Atkins, nominated by President Trump, as the chairman of the SEC with a vote of 52 to 44;

9. On April 11, spot gold briefly surged to $3,218 per ounce, setting a new historical high, and has since retreated to $3,207 per ounce;

10. On April 11, according to market data, the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds rose to 4.907%, with a daily increase of 1.22%;

11. On April 11, President Trump signed a bill officially repealing the IRS DeFi crypto broker rules, marking the first cryptocurrency bill signed into law by a president.

Macroeconomics

1. On April 10, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-on-year was 2.4%, with an expectation of 2.6%;

2. On April 11, the U.S. March PPI year-on-year was 2.7%, with an expectation of 3.3%, and a previous value of 3.20%;

3. On April 10, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May is 16%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 84%.

4. On April 9, the Eurozone money market is currently fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank in April, with a probability of 85% this Tuesday;

5. On April 9, the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose to a 21-year high on Wednesday, as investors sold the most liquid bonds to raise cash amid a market collapse triggered by U.S. trade tariffs. With stock and oil prices plummeting, the yield on 30-year Japanese bonds peaked at 2.785%, the highest level since August 2004, rising 22 basis points on the day to 2.715%;

6. On April 9, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if the economy improves as expected, he will continue to raise interest rates.

ETF

According to statistics, from April 7 to April 11, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $708 million; as of April 11, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $22.736 billion, currently holding $16.523 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $47.899 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $93.702 billion.

The net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $82.5 million.

Envisioning the Future

Upcoming Events

1. TOKEN2049 Dubai 2025 will be held in Dubai from April 30 to May 1, 2025;

2. Canada Crypto Week will take place in Toronto, Canada from May 11 to 17, 2025.

Project Progress

1. KerneIDAO will have its TGE on April 14, with the token being KERNAL;

2. The Genesis license sale for the decentralized, scalable AI chain Matchain will start on April 14, offering 100,000 utility-focused licenses tied to the platform's self-sovereign identity system MatchID;

3. 25% of the airdrop from the Ethereum L2 network Mint community will be unlocked on April 15;

4. Ripple Labs has requested to set the court briefing deadline for its case with the SEC to April 16.

Important Events

1. Trump has invited Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele to attend a White House meeting on April 14 to discuss bilateral cooperation and diplomatic relations;

2. A U.S. judge has postponed the trial of Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm, originally scheduled for December 2024, to April 14, with the trial expected to last two weeks.

Token Unlocks

1. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on April 15, valued at approximately $15.66 million, accounting for 4.37% of the circulating supply;

2. Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on April 15, valued at approximately $3.853 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply;

3. Zebec Network (ZBCN) will unlock 2.12 billion tokens on April 16, valued at approximately $2.05 million, accounting for 2.12% of the circulating supply;

4. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.38 million tokens on April 17, valued at approximately $6.59 million, accounting for 1.54% of the circulating supply;

5. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on April 18, valued at approximately $10.38 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a "trend assessment + value mining + real-time tracking" integrated service system, offering in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional evaluation of potential projects, and 24/7 market volatility monitoring, combined with weekly live strategy sessions of "Hotcoin Selected" and daily news updates of "Blockchain Today" to provide precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, collectively seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a thorough understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.