The European Central Bank cuts interest rates as expected, while the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates in May - U.S. tariff policy may have limited impact
Hotcoin Research Market Insights: April 14, 2025 - April 18, 2025
Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.67 trillion, with BTC accounting for 62.95%, which is $1.68 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $234.4 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.47%, of which USDT accounts for 61.85%.
This week, BTC's price has shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $85,107; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $1,603.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have increased, including: CORE with a 7-day increase of 29.36%, RAY with a 7-day increase of 23.51%, DEEP with a 7-day increase of 41.51%, and T with a 7-day increase of 36.69%.
This week, the net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $13.9 million; the net outflow for the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $32.3 million.
On April 19, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 32 (lower than last week), with this week's sentiment: 1 day neutral, 6 days fear.
Market prediction: This week, the market continues to see an increase in stablecoin issuance, with a small net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and a net outflow for the Ethereum ETF. The U.S. hopes to achieve strong negotiations globally through increased tariffs, but the current prediction is that U.S. tariffs will have limited impact on cryptocurrencies. This week, BTC and ETH prices are in a narrow range of fluctuations, with the market gradually recovering. The market remains in a state of panic, the U.S. dollar index has fallen below 100, and gold prices have hit new highs, indicating a high level of investment risk aversion. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May is 9.1%, which is lower than last week. It is expected that the market will gradually bottom out in April-May, with BTC fluctuating between $80k and $90k.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Review
On April 14, Jupiter co-founder meow tweeted, "In the coming months, we will launch a large number of products, governance concepts, experimental metadata, thought fragments, and new technological concepts";
On April 15, according to monitoring by Shield, the perpetual contract DEX KiloEx was attacked today, resulting in a loss of approximately $7.5 million (of which $3.3 million was on the Base network, $3.1 million on the opBNB network, and $1 million on the BNB Chain). KiloEx has currently suspended operations;
On April 15, OpenSea announced that Solana token trading has been launched on OS2 for some closed beta users and will gradually roll out to more users in the coming weeks. Currently, tokens can be traded, with NFT trading to be launched later;
On April 15, Circle's euro stablecoin EURC reached a historic high in supply, potentially driven by increased demand for euro-denominated digital assets amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and a weakening dollar;
On April 15, Bo Hines, executive director of the White House President's Digital Asset Working Group, stated that the U.S. may use tariff revenues to purchase Bitcoin;
On April 15, ZKsync hackers attacked the account of the airdrop distribution administrator, minting an additional 111 million ZK tokens;
On April 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announced details of its third cryptocurrency policy roundtable, with the meeting on April 25 focusing on custody issues, featuring two panel discussions—one on broker-dealer and wallet custody, and another on investment advisor and investment company custody;
On April 16, MANTRA released a statement regarding the OM price drop, stating that the MANTRA team is currently operating normally and is committed to taking all necessary measures to address the current market turmoil. During the OM price drop, the MANTRA team did not conduct any sell-offs, and the token allocations for the MANTRA mainnet OM team and advisory team are all locked;
On April 17, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming mainstream, and establishing a legal framework for stablecoins is a good idea. Stablecoins may have broad appeal and consumer protection measures should be established;
On April 16, Raydium launched the token issuance platform LaunchLab, designed for creators, developers, and the community. Tokens are released through the JustSendIt model, raising 85 SOL, with liquidity immediately migrated to Raydium's AMM. Create on-chain tokens with no migration fees and no permission reviews;
On April 18, on-chain data analyst Yu Jin monitored that Blur, which unlocks tokens monthly, transferred 23.8 million BLUR (approximately $2.3 million) unlocked this month to Coinbase Prime one hour ago.
Macroeconomics
On April 14, the U.S. SEC postponed its decision on Grayscale's ETHE adding staking functionality;
On April 14, Japan's 20-year government bond yield rose to 2.435%, the highest level since 2004;
On April 17, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed's two goals have not yet conflicted, but the current trend is that the unemployment rate and inflation levels will rise;
On April 18, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, marking the seventh rate cut in the past year, with this decision being unanimous;
On April 18, U.S. President Trump expressed confidence in reaching an agreement with China on tariffs. Trump stated, "I think we will reach an agreement with China, and we will reach agreements with everyone. If we don't reach an agreement, then we will set a target, and that's fine too. Things should be sorted out in the next three to four weeks";
On April 18, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in May is 9.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 90.9%.
ETF
According to statistics, from April 14 to April 18, the net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $13.9 million; as of April 18, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $22.736 billion, currently holding $16.152 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $48.598 billion. The total market capitalization of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $96.936 billion.
The net outflow for the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $32.3 million.
Envisioning the Future
Upcoming Events
TOKEN2049 Dubai 2025 will be held from April 30 to May 1, 2025, in Dubai;
Canada Crypto Week will take place from May 11 to 17, 2025, in Toronto, Canada.
Project Progress
The Lorentz mainnet upgrade will go live on April 21 on opBNB;
The Japanese crypto exchange coinbook has been fully acquired by BACKSEAT Co., Ltd. and will be renamed "BACKSEAT Cryptocurrency Exchange Co., Ltd." on April 21;
The token sale for DoubleZero's token 2Z on the CoinList platform will end on April 22;
The interoperability protocol Hyperlane will conduct an airdrop on April 22, with 57% of the token distribution allocated to users, and the remaining circulating tokens distributed to the core team (25%), investors (10.9%), and the foundation treasury (7.1%).
Important Events
- Coinbase Derivatives announced that it has submitted an application to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch XRP futures contracts, with the official expectation that the contract will go live on April 21, 2025.
Token Unlocking
Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 216,000 tokens on April 21, valued at approximately $59.53 million, accounting for 1.03% of the circulating supply;
Scroll (SCR) will unlock 40 million tokens on April 22, valued at approximately $9.32 million, accounting for 4% of the circulating supply;
Coin98 (C98) will unlock 16.53 million tokens on April 23, valued at approximately $920,000, accounting for 1.65% of the circulating supply;
Altlayer (ALT) will unlock 195 million tokens on April 25, valued at approximately $5.32 million, accounting for 1.95% of the circulating supply;
Axelar (AXL) will unlock 13.51 million tokens on April 27, valued at approximately $3.97 million, accounting for 1.13% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment center of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global cryptocurrency investors. We build a "trend analysis + value discovery + real-time tracking" integrated service system, offering in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional evaluations of potential projects, and all-day market volatility monitoring, combined with weekly live strategy broadcasts of "Hotcoin Selected" and daily news updates of "Blockchain Today" to provide precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
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