# Introduction

The global financial market's perception of Bitcoin is undergoing a qualitative change. Initially hyped as "digital gold," it is gradually being viewed as a potential holding asset. Major economies and large institutions are shifting their positioning of Bitcoin from "high-volatility risk asset" to "strategic reserve asset." Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been launched in the U.S. and Hong Kong, with asset scales continuously growing; Trump has returned to the White House, clearly placing blockchain and digital assets at the national strategic level, proposing a strategic Bitcoin reserve and gradually implementing a series of favorable policies; countries including El Salvador and Bhutan have incorporated Bitcoin into their national balance sheets. Meanwhile, publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are continuously increasing their Bitcoin holdings and attempting to leverage their purchases through convertible bonds or corporate bonds, trying to seize the opportunity in the new evolution of the monetary system. This is not only a switch in the logic of financial asset allocation but may also be the prologue to a reconfiguration of national strategy and the landscape of capital power.

This article will analyze the impact of macro variables such as interest rates, inflation, regulation, and the U.S. "strategic Bitcoin reserve" on the differentiation of crypto assets; outline the holding patterns and driving forces of six types of entities: ETFs, national governments, publicly traded and private companies, mining companies, and DeFi. It will further predict the institutional holding changes of Bitcoin from 2025 to 2026, analyze the possible evolution trends of the market in conjunction with the fixed supply characteristics, summarize Bitcoin's competitive attributes in a multipolar world, and propose a thought path for investors' asset allocation, aiming to provide readers with a panoramic view of "who is hoarding Bitcoin, why they are hoarding it, and where hoarding will push Bitcoin."

# Analysis of Institutional Holding Structure

According to Bitbo Treasuries statistics, as of June 10, 2025, a total of 139 institutional entities hold Bitcoin, with a holding quantity of approximately 3,303,688 Bitcoins, accounting for 15.73% of the total issuance of 21 million, with a total market value of approximately $36.16 billion. Among them, ETF holdings account for 6.60% of the total, becoming the largest circulation channel for Bitcoin, followed by publicly traded companies and national-level institutions. Meanwhile, the entry of private enterprises and DeFi projects has enriched the holding structure and diversified funding sources.

Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/

1. ETF Holding Analysis

Since 2024, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have been successively approved and launched, providing institutional investors with a compliant channel and an investment tool that does not require self-custody wallets. As of June 10, 2025, 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold approximately 1.38 million BTC, accounting for 6.6% of the circulating supply, with a market value of approximately $151.7 billion. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT alone accounts for 3.16% of the global supply, making up 55% of all ETF positions; Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC follow closely, locking in nearly 1.8% of Bitcoin supply. Fund flows indicate that after a brief pullback at the end of May, ETFs have once again absorbed net buying: on June 9, a single-day net subscription of $392 million, with IBIT and FBTC contributing over 76% of the increase.

Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/#etfs

With wealth platforms like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan expected to open Bitcoin ETF purchase permissions in the second half of the year, the market generally expects that the total ETF holdings will likely exceed 1.5 million by the end of the year, further enhancing the appeal of the "no wallet" building channel for institutions.

2. National-Level Institutional Holding Analysis

In March 2025, the U.S. issued an executive order requiring the Treasury to establish a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" using confiscated Bitcoins and to formulate a budget-neutral strategy to increase BTC holdings, clearly stating that the Bitcoin held by the government "shall not be sold" and will be retained as a long-term treasury asset. On April 29, the Arizona state legislature passed a bill allowing up to 10% of public funds to be invested in Bitcoin. Oklahoma has also proposed establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Additionally, states like Texas and Alabama are following suit, attempting to diversify asset risks through legislation and seize opportunities in the digital economy.

El Salvador continues to actively hoard Bitcoin, holding approximately 6,190 Bitcoins (about $675 million) as of the end of May 2025, referring to it as a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" to combat inflation and enhance financial sovereignty. Furthermore, countries like Switzerland, Poland, and Japan are exploring the feasibility of digital asset reserves.

Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/countries/

3. Publicly Traded Company Holding Analysis

At the corporate level, MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy) is far ahead. As of May 2025, Strategy has accumulated over 582,000 Bitcoins, becoming the largest corporate holder globally. MicroStrategy is constructing a unique business model by issuing Bitcoin-backed bonds and preferred stocks, having completed three Bitcoin-backed preferred stock issuances in the past five months. On June 11, Strategy's Executive Chairman Michael Saylor stated in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that Bitcoin has passed its most dangerous phase and that a bear market will not reoccur in the future. He predicts that Bitcoin's price will reach $1 million and emphasizes that senior U.S. government officials support Bitcoin. He noted that international capital is accelerating its entry into the Bitcoin space, and the next decade may be the last window for acquiring Bitcoin. Michael Saylor frequently shares Bitcoin Tracker-related information through his X account, usually disclosing Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation data the day after he posts Bitcoin Tracker information.

Source: https://x.com/saylor

In addition, other "high-belief" companies are also hoarding Bitcoin. Marathon Digital holds about 49,200 Bitcoins, Riot Blockchain about 19,200, CleanSpark about 12,500, Tesla has not increased its holdings since 2022, currently holding about 11,500, Hut8 about 10,300, and Coinbase has also disclosed a reserve of 9,267 Bitcoins, mainly for operations and hedging. Additionally, the Japanese publicly traded company Metaplanet has seen its market value soar due to continuous Bitcoin purchases.

Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/#public

4. Private Company Holding Analysis

Many unlisted fintech companies, family offices, and funds are also laying out Bitcoin. Globally, numerous tech companies and wealthy families have incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets. For example, U.S. private equity and hedge funds have been increasing their BTC holdings through over-the-counter channels, with some establishing dedicated Bitcoin trusts. Private mining companies (like Genesis Mining) also retain mining income in Bitcoin. Some asset management platforms and bank wealth management departments (like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs) are estimated to invest tens of billions of dollars in Bitcoin from 2025 to 2026. Overall, the private sector's interest in Bitcoin is high, driven by the need to hedge against inflation, diversify investments, and position for the future of the digital economy.

Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/#private

5. Bitcoin Mining Company Holding Analysis

Leading miners are inclined to increase their Bitcoin self-holding ratio. Several mining companies have stated that "hoarding Bitcoin" will be their new strategy after the 2024 halving. On one hand, they improve efficiency and output by operating their own mining pools (such as Marathon's MARA Pool), and on the other hand, they reduce immediate liquidation. For example, Marathon has held nearly 49,200 Bitcoins as of May 2025, selling no new output in May; most of Riot's output in recent years has also been retained, with holdings close to 19,200; Hut8 made a one-time increase of 974 Bitcoins at the end of 2024, bringing its Bitcoin reserve's market value to over $1 billion. These mining companies are optimistic about the tightening supply and rising Bitcoin prices post-halving, gradually converting mining rewards into long-term reserves. They actively explore fixed-income channels (such as mining pools or loans) to cover operating costs, reducing the need to finance through Bitcoin sales. Mining executives generally believe that Bitcoin's fixed supply determines that "the more you hoard, the more valuable it becomes," providing a strong incentive for their holdings.

Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/miners/

6. DeFi Platform BTC TVL Analysis

Wrapped Bitcoin tokens like wBTC and cbBTC allow users to hold Bitcoin across different blockchain networks. According to CoinGecko data, wBTC currently has a market value of approximately $13.6 billion, while Coinbase's cbBTC has a market value of about $4.7 billion. The Bitcoin ecosystem in decentralized finance is also rapidly developing. Various Bitcoin Layer 2 projects are emerging: the Bitcoin staking protocol Babylon has reached a staking volume of 47,600 Bitcoins, with a market value of approximately $5.1 billion. LBTC, as a Bitcoin liquid staking token based on Babylon, allows users to maintain the value of their original assets while participating in DeFi and earning returns, with a current market value of $1.9 billion. These protocols are bringing new liquidity tools and yield opportunities to Bitcoin, accelerating the conversion of idle Bitcoin into yield-generating assets.

Source: https://bitbo.io/treasuries/#defi

# Analysis of the Motivations Behind Institutional Accumulation of Bitcoin

From the depreciation of the dollar, inflationary pressures, to the global asset reallocation demand, coupled with supportive policies and regulations, these factors constitute the fundamental motivations behind the institutional "hoarding wave" of Bitcoin in 2025, driving various institutions to increase their Bitcoin holdings.

1. Macroeconomic Reasons for Institutional Accumulation of Bitcoin

In 2025, global institutions have initiated an unprecedented Bitcoin "hoarding wave," driven by profound macroeconomic logic and the increasingly mature policy and regulatory environment. As the global macroeconomic environment continues to change, the trend of institutions accumulating Bitcoin is expected to persist long-term, further reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a global strategic reserve asset.

• Dollar depreciation and persistent inflationary pressures: In recent years, the dollar has been under continuous pressure, becoming a global consensus. The U.S. government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio reaching a historic high of 123%, raising concerns among international investors about the long-term stability of the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, persistent high inflation globally has significantly reduced the real returns on traditional financial assets. In a high-inflation environment, various institutions are compelled to seek assets that can effectively resist inflation erosion. Bitcoin, due to its scarcity, decentralized nature, and high global liquidity, is gradually being viewed as a safe-haven reserve tool similar to gold.

• Gradual clarification of the policy and regulatory environment: The U.S. policy stance has also undergone a dramatic shift, with the White House's newly issued executive order clearly stating that the U.S. "supports blockchain" and believes that "legitimate stablecoins" help maintain dollar sovereignty. Bipartisan proposals have been introduced in Congress to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins and crypto assets, authorizing financial institutions to create compliant digital asset products. Over 20 states in the U.S. have proposed or are considering legislation related to Bitcoin reserves, covering public fund allocations, tax incentives, and regulatory frameworks. On the regulatory front, agencies like the SEC and CFTC have accelerated their layout of crypto regulations by the end of 2024. Overall, the U.S. is evolving from strict regulation to a more lenient and friendly direction, providing greater certainty for institutional investment.

• Global asset reallocation wave and industry demonstration effect: The continued low returns on traditional financial assets, with challenges facing investment returns in stocks and bonds, have forced institutional investors to reallocate assets. Since the beginning of 2025, the rapid increase in the asset management scale of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs has provided institutional funds with a convenient and compliant investment channel, accelerating the allocation of institutional funds to Bitcoin. Additionally, the high-profile hoarding case of MicroStrategy has a significant demonstration effect, leading to more and more companies, funds, and even government institutions following suit in recent years, forming a consensus and collective behavior among institutions holding Bitcoin. This demonstration effect is continuously reinforced by the industry, accelerating the inflow of institutional funds.

2. Microeconomic Reasons for Institutional Accumulation of Bitcoin

• Government/Sovereign Fund Demand: This reflects the strategic need for countries to diversify sovereign assets, hedge against currency depreciation, and mitigate geopolitical risks. For example, the U.S. has promoted legislation to establish a Bitcoin "strategic reserve," holding confiscated Bitcoins long-term. Overall, governments currently hold about 2.3% of the Bitcoin supply, which, although not large, could significantly impact prices if they act collectively.

• Publicly Traded Companies and Large Enterprises: At the corporate treasury management level, the demonstration effect of publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy is immense. MicroStrategy's founder Saylor has repeatedly stated that they will indefinitely increase their Bitcoin holdings, influencing many global publicly traded companies to actively incorporate Bitcoin into their financial assets. The main motivation for companies to accumulate Bitcoin is to hedge against corporate-level currency depreciation, improve asset returns, and attract investor attention.

• Private Enterprises and Small to Medium Enterprises: In addition to large publicly traded companies, some private companies and smaller market-cap firms are also actively involved. For instance, some companies raise funds through equity financing and then turn to purchase crypto assets. Whether tech giants or traditional industry companies, they are allocating Bitcoin on their balance sheets to optimize their financial conditions and cope with macro uncertainties.

• ETF Issuers and Institutional Asset Management: After the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. in 2024, traditional asset management giants quickly entered the market. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) reached over $70 billion in AUM within just one year of its launch, setting a record for the fastest growth in scale; the fund's Bitcoin holdings now account for about 3.15% of the global circulating supply, making it an important market participant. ETFs provide a convenient channel for institutions and funds that are unwilling to hold Bitcoin directly, attracting a large influx of institutional funds. Meanwhile, traditional asset management companies are also increasing their Bitcoin investment positions to enhance performance, driving significant capital inflows and pushing prices upward.

• Mining Companies: Mining companies obtain Bitcoin rewards through mining, with costs far below the current market price. Reports indicate that the mining cost in 2025 is about $26,000 to $28,000 per coin, while the market price is around $100,000. Therefore, in a bull market, miners often prefer to hoard rather than sell. For example, Marathon has continuously purchased Bitcoin from January to May 2025, currently holding 49,200 Bitcoins, making it the second-largest publicly traded mining company by Bitcoin holdings. This hoarding behavior is partly to hedge against the sharp reduction in output due to the halving (after May 2024, block rewards will drop to 3.125 coins, with an annual inflation rate of <0.5%), and also reflects miners' optimistic expectations for future prices.

• DeFi Platforms and Protocols: The decentralized finance sector has also begun to absorb Bitcoin. Some protocols support Bitcoin as collateral to issue stablecoins or synthetic assets, providing revenue sources for the platforms. Institutional capital entering the DeFi ecosystem has accelerated this process. Some institutions are exploring the possibility of combining traditional bonds or real estate with Bitcoin through DeFi. As the regulatory framework gradually clarifies, the demand for compliance in DeFi platforms is increasing, and incorporating Bitcoin into their ecosystems can enhance stability and attractiveness.

# How Institutional Accumulation Restructures Bitcoin's Price Mechanism

1. Traditional Price Driving Mechanism: In the past, Bitcoin's price movements were mainly driven by retail sentiment and the fundamental supply-demand dynamics, characterized by a "bull market expectations + halving cycle" dual driving force. Retail enthusiasm often leads to rapid price increases when buying pressure on exchanges rises, while market panic or large sell-offs can result in sharp declines. At the same time, the halving event, occurring every four years, significantly reduces the new coin supply from miners, often triggering a new bull market after supply tightens.

2. New Logic Driven by Institutions: In the context of large-scale institutional entry, Bitcoin's price mechanism has changed from the past. The higher the holding rate and the lower the circulating supply, the more stable and elevated the price becomes, further attracting institutional attention; this feedback loop of "more institutions holding → supply tightens → price rises → market cap expands → attracts more holders" is gradually solidifying:

• Structural Supply Tightening: After the halving, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate drops to extremely low levels, with 74% of circulating coins remaining untouched for two years, and about 75% of coins have been dormant for the past six months. This means that only a small amount of new and active coins are available for market trading, significantly weakening conventional selling pressure. According to analysis, even a small-scale buying impact can lead to a substantial price increase.

• Increase in Long-Term Holders' Proportion: As Bitcoin's price rises, many short-term holders gradually take profits and exit, while long-term holders continue to accumulate at high price levels, with many high-position chips effectively converting into locked chips, enhancing the market's resilience. Overall, the trading proportion of institutions and large holders continues to rise, increasing the proportion of long-term holders and forming a further tightening supply pattern.

• Institutional Pressure on Circulation: A large number of institutions and large funds are withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges to cold wallets or trust accounts for long-term holding. Meanwhile, ETFs and asset management institutions continue to buy, further reducing the market's tradable supply. More institutions holding ⇒ reduced circulating supply ⇒ price pushed higher, forming a positive feedback loop where price and market cap mutually reinforce institutional participation.

The driving force of the Bitcoin market has shifted from early short-term speculation and exchange traffic to being dominated by institutional hoarding and supply tightening. In this pattern, Bitcoin's price no longer solely relies on retail sentiment or miner output but is redefined in its valuation through the interplay of institutional holdings and macro value recognition. As analysis points out, the confidence of institutions and long-term holders provides solid support for prices, ushering the Bitcoin market into a new phase dominated by institutional behavior and more imbalanced supply and demand.

# Conclusion and Outlook

The "hoarding wave" of ETFs, governments, and enterprises has profoundly changed Bitcoin's supply-demand structure and pricing logic: fixed increments + long-term lock-ups continue to shrink the market's circulating supply; the institutional need to hedge against inflation and diversify reserve assets has formed robust and lasting buying pressure on the demand side. With the institutionalization of the U.S. "strategic Bitcoin reserve," the successive implementation of state legislation, and the widespread participation of global sovereign funds, publicly traded companies, and mining enterprises, Bitcoin is accelerating its transformation from a "high-volatility risk asset" to a "strategic reserve asset," entering a new era led by institutional behavior.

• Price Center Elevation: Under the dual pressure of annual new supply insufficient at 0.5% and continuous net inflows into ETFs, market expectations are shifting from "cyclical bull and bear" to "stepwise elevation." In the baseline scenario, Bitcoin is expected to stabilize in the $150,000 to $180,000 range by the end of 2025 to mid-2026; if the U.S. and Europe cut interest rates along with more sovereign funds entering, the upper limit of the bull market may extend to $250,000.

• Volatility Easing: The increasing proportion of institutional holdings is gradually converging the severe volatility of "deep pullbacks - rapid rebounds," with on-chain data showing that 74% of circulating coins have not moved for two years, indicating that each institutional-level buying action is raising the bottom and enhancing market resilience.

• Deepening Financialization: Spot ETFs are just the beginning; the futures term structure, Bitcoin staking yield curves, and "BTC-denominated bonds" will accelerate improvement, providing traditional funds with richer hedging and yield strategies, further enhancing the depth and effectiveness of the Bitcoin market.

• Prosperity of On-Chain Ecosystem: Layer 2 solutions and liquid staking protocols like Babylon, RGB, and BitVM are injecting DeFi and RWA functionalities into Bitcoin, improving capital efficiency and recycling idle BTC from institutions, which in the long run will help continue to increase the lock-up rate.

• Risks and Uncertainties: On the macro level, it is necessary to be wary of sudden tightening of global liquidity, geopolitical black swans, and unexpected expansions of U.S. fiscal deficits; on the industry level, attention must still be paid to regulatory discrepancies, protocol security incidents, and cash flow pressures on mining companies. In extreme scenarios, prices may experience a phase pullback of over 30%, but the long-term upward logic is unlikely to be fundamentally disrupted.

Overall, Bitcoin is at the intersection of institutionalization, globalization, and financialization, and the next round of value reassessment has already begun, with 2025-2026 likely being a critical window for "re-pricing Bitcoin at a higher platform."

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