$100,000 is just the starting point? Miners' holdings hit a new cycle low + China-U.S. tariff exemptions, Bitcoin enters a frenzy mode

Author: Lawrence, Mars Finance

First Part: Bitcoin Miners' Selling Pressure Drops to Lowest Level Since 2024 ------ Is the Market Gearing Up for New Highs?

1. Shift in Miner Behavior: From Selling to Holding

According to the latest data from the cryptocurrency analysis platform Alphractal, the Bitcoin miners' selling pressure indicator (which measures the ratio of outflows to reserves over a 30-day period) has fallen below the lower bound, reaching its lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon indicates that miners are shifting from the past model of "selling to cover operational costs" to a more strategic accumulation.

This stands in stark contrast to the predicament of miners' income being halved after the 2024 halving (when daily selling volume increased from 900 to 1200 coins), but the changes in the current market environment have prompted miners to adjust their strategies:

• Profit expectations drive accumulation: With Bitcoin's price recently breaking $100,000 and approaching historical highs, miners are more inclined to hold Bitcoin in anticipation of higher returns rather than cashing out in the short term.
• Structural optimization in the industry: The large-scale development of mining led by publicly listed companies (such as Bitfarms and CleanSpark) has reduced the exit risk for inefficient miners, and the increased industry concentration has alleviated selling pressure.
• Learning from historical experiences: In past cycles, excessive leverage and long-term holding by miners led to liquidity crises (such as the 2018 bear market), and there is now a greater focus on short-term financial stability.

2. On-chain Data Reveals Market Resilience

Alphractal's miner selling pressure indicator shows that the current market structure is vastly different from the "panic selling" seen at the beginning of 2024:

• Long-term holders dominate: Currently, over 80% of Bitcoin has been held for more than 6 months, significantly lower than the dominance of short-term holders at historical cycle peaks, providing stable support for prices.
• Exchange reserves at new lows: Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating that the market is in a "high-speed accumulation phase," with selling pressure dispersed through over-the-counter trading or institutional holdings.
• Derivatives market risks: Despite stability in the spot market, there are a large number of highly leveraged long positions in the $100,000 to $110,000 range, which could trigger a multi-billion dollar liquidation wave if prices fluctuate.

3. Price Trends and Future Expectations

As of May 12, 2025, Bitcoin's price is reported at $104,250, with a 24-hour increase of 1%, and a cumulative increase of over 30% in the past month. The focus of market divergence regarding future trends is:

• Technical signals: The RSI (75) indicates overbought conditions, but the MACD continues to rise; if the key support level of $100,000 is breached, it may trigger selling from short-term holders.
• Impact of macro variables: Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts (if cuts exceed 100 basis points in 2025) could provide Bitcoin with a "Davis Double" opportunity, but stagflation risks may weaken its safe-haven attributes.
• Dynamics of miner behavior: If prices break above $110,000, selling pressure from miners may increase, but the current low selling levels suggest the market may enter a "calm upward phase."

Second Part: Market Concerns Behind "Substantial Progress" in US-China Trade Agreement

1. White House Statement and Agreement Outline

On May 11, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet and Trade Representative Jamison Greer jointly announced that the U.S.-China trade negotiations have made "substantial progress," with both sides reaching a principled consensus in the following areas:

• Market access: China has committed to expanding imports of U.S. agricultural products, and the tariff exemptions on certain U.S. technology products have been extended.
• Intellectual property protection: A cross-border enforcement cooperation mechanism will be established to reduce barriers to technology transfer.
• Dispute resolution mechanism: A permanent consultation platform will be set up to prevent trade friction escalation.

2. Market Reaction and Concerns

Despite the positive signals from officials, the lack of agreement details has led investors to be cautiously optimistic:

• Residual uncertainty: The volatility of the Trump administration's policies (such as the "one-day exemption" for electronic tariffs in 2024) has weakened market trust, and risk assets remain under pressure until the agreement is finalized.
• Unresolved structural contradictions: Competitive policies between the U.S. and China in areas such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence (like "Trade War 2.0") may continue through non-tariff means.
• Divergent liquidity impacts: If the agreement leads to a decline in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), Bitcoin may benefit from a renewed "anti-fiat" narrative; however, if negotiations break down and trigger safe-haven demand, gold may divert funds.

3. Global Economic Ripple Effects

The potential systemic impacts of easing U.S.-China trade tensions include:

• Supply chain reshaping: The agreement may accelerate the trend of "nearshore outsourcing," enhancing Mexico and Southeast Asia's positions as manufacturing hubs, and increasing demand for cryptocurrency cross-border payments.
• Inflation relief expectations: Tariff reductions are expected to alleviate pressure on U.S. CPI, providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, indirectly benefiting risk assets.
• Geopolitical risk transfer: If U.S.-China cooperation strengthens, alternative crises such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern tensions may become new sources of market volatility.

Third Part: Market Games and Investment Strategies Intertwined with Dual Main Lines

1. Resonance Between Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Policies

• Interest rate sensitivity and correlation: The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index (0.78) indicates that it has not yet detached from the traditional risk asset framework; if the U.S.-China trade agreement boosts tech stocks, Bitcoin may benefit in tandem.
• Miner behavior as a leading indicator: Historical data shows that after miners' selling pressure bottoms out, Bitcoin often enters an upward cycle (such as the bull market following miners' capitulation in 2023), and the current low selling levels may indicate a similar trend.

2. Risk and Opportunity Assessment

• Short-term volatility risk: The accumulation of leverage in Bitcoin derivatives and the ambiguity of U.S.-China agreement details may trigger price fluctuations, with the support level of $100,000 becoming a dividing line for bulls and bears.
• Long-term narrative strengthening: The average daily accumulation of Bitcoin ETFs (800 coins) remains higher than miners' output (450 coins), and the institutionalization process offsets some market shocks.

Conclusion: Certainty Logic in a Complex Market

In May 2025, the global market stands at the dual juncture of Bitcoin's "post-halving cycle" and the "rebalancing of U.S.-China trade relations." The low selling pressure from miners and the White House's progress on the agreement may seem independent but actually point to a core proposition: asset repricing under liquidity reconstruction. Whether Bitcoin breaks previous highs or the U.S.-China agreement materializes, the market will ultimately validate a truth—amidst the collision of macro iron curtains and crypto narratives, only assets that combine resilience and efficiency can achieve long-term victory.