Shanzhai Season or Shanzhai G? The Dilemma of the "Partial Bull Market"

Author: Wenser

With frequent positive news from market policies, the cryptocurrency market has finally begun to warm up gradually, and altcoins are experiencing their "second spring," particularly with Meme coins showing outstanding performance: OKX market data shows that the 24-hour price increases for MOODENG, GOAT, WIF, BOME, and MEW are as high as 123.09%, 57.36%, 26.24%, 24.84%, and 22.64%, respectively. This wave of increase, driven by BTC, ETH, and SOL, has many diamond hands shouting "We're back, it's all back!" while simultaneously watching their significantly retraced positions bleed in their hearts. Regarding the future market direction, Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the recent driving factors behind the market's rise and representative industry viewpoints for readers' reference.

Macro Direct Benefits: US-China Reconciliation, Fed Signals Rate Cuts

The recent surge in the market is undoubtedly directly attributed to the tariff and business negotiations between the US and China. Additionally, thanks to a series of previous maneuvers by Trump, facing the potential of economic recession, the Federal Reserve has also softened its previously hardline stance, leading to a sudden increase in expectations for rate cuts this year. The favorable policies have caused the market to turn bullish, with buying pressure quickly surpassing selling pressure.

US and China "Achieve Substantial Progress"

This morning Beijing time, the White House announced that the US has reached a trade agreement with China in Geneva. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson stated that the negotiations took place in Geneva, Switzerland, over two days and achieved "substantial progress." Both sides expressed satisfaction with the negotiation results, believing that the differences were not as significant as imagined, and the agreement was reached quickly. US officials are optimistic about the agreement, believing it will help address the trade deficit issue. He Lifeng, the Chinese lead in US-China economic and trade relations and Vice Premier of the State Council, also stated at the press conference that the high-level talks were candid, in-depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and achieving substantial progress. Both sides agreed to establish a US-China economic and trade consultation mechanism.

After the previous "154% high tariffs" debacle, the US and China have finally sat down again to negotiate calmly and reached a phased consensus, undoubtedly providing a reassuring pill for both countries' economies and the cryptocurrency market.

Fed Signals Softening, Rate Cuts Expected This Year

On May 8, Fed Chair Powell stated that in certain circumstances, rate cuts this year are appropriate, while in others, they are not, and he cannot confidently say he knows the appropriate rate path. At that time, based on futures prices, the probability of a rate cut by July was about 75%.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Cook previously indicated that both inflation and unemployment rates have upward risks, and the economy may slow down in the short term; on the other hand, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos analyzed that Fed Chair Powell downplayed expectations that rate cuts would alleviate the economic weakness potentially caused by Trump's tariffs, suggesting that the Fed would only consider rate cuts upon seeing significant evidence of economic growth slowing, and it might be a rapid rate cut.

Overall, the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates in the second half of this year has significantly increased, further repairing the previously oversold market sentiment.

Institutions Continue to Buy BTC: Public Companies Become Major Holders, BlackRock Leads

As the most prominent BTC buying group in this cycle, public companies have become one of the fastest-growing groups in terms of cryptocurrency holdings; asset management institutions and ETF index funds are also in a rapid growth phase.

Metaplanet Increases Holdings by 1,241 BTC, Worth Approximately $182 Million

Japanese public company Metaplanet increased its holdings by 1,241 BTC, worth approximately $182 million. As of now, the company holds a total of 6,796 BTC, valued at approximately $704 million.

Strategy Continues to Buy, Annual Return Exceeds 14%

Strategy founder Michael Saylor released information related to Bitcoin Tracker again last night. According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses its Bitcoin purchase information the day after relevant news is released.

On May 5, it was reported that Strategy purchased 1,895 BTC (totaling $180.3 million) between April 28 and May 4 at a price of $95,167. At the same time, it stated that as of May 4, 2025, the Bitcoin return had reached 14.0%. As of May 4, 2025, it holds 555,450 BTC, with an average cost of $68,550, totaling a value of $38.08 billion.

Indian Public Company Jetking Enters BTC Market, Aiming for 18,000 BTC by 2030

Indian public company Jetking's CEO Harsh Bharwani previously stated that the company plans to gradually increase its BTC holdings through various financing tools, aiming to hold 18,000 BTC by 2030. He revealed that within the next six months, they will raise funds to expand to approximately 180 BTC, with a target of 1,800 BTC within the next year, and complete the final holding plan before 2030.

BlackRock Recently Increased Holdings by 5,613 BTC, Total Bitcoin Holdings Exceed 620,000 BTC

According to Lookonchain monitoring, on May 6, BlackRock increased its holdings by 5,613 BTC, worth $529.5 million. Currently, its total Bitcoin holdings exceed 620,000 BTC, reaching 620,252 BTC, valued at $58.51 billion. Since April 21, BlackRock has purchased a total of 47,064 BTC.

On May 7, it was reported that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) still ranks sixth in the US ETF fund list with a net inflow of $6.96 billion, surpassing the world's largest gold ETF (GLD) with $6.5 billion.

New Increment: Futu Opens BTC, ETH, USDT Deposit Functions, Traditional Financial Applications Integrate into Crypto System

In addition to the previously discussed buying power, the most notable new variable in the cryptocurrency market recently is undoubtedly the "Futu APP opening BTC, ETH, USDT deposit functions as a traditional financial application."

Futu Launches BTC, ETH, USDT Deposit Functions

Last week, Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Limited announced the official launch of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) deposit services. Qualified investors can complete deposits and trade cryptocurrencies ("Crypto") through the one-stop trading platform Futu NiuNiu, allowing them to invest in more asset classes or safely withdraw funds. Investors can manage Crypto + TradFi assets (traditional financial assets, including Hong Kong, US, and Japanese stocks, options, ETFs, funds, bonds, and other diversified assets) through one app, quickly switching between virtual and traditional asset markets.

Altseason or Alt G? Market Divisions Are Significant, Still in Oversold Recovery Phase

As BTC, ETH, and SOL have experienced slight fluctuations after a recent surge, the enthusiasm for altseason in the cryptocurrency market has reignited. However, there is significant divergence in the opinions of industry representatives regarding whether we are about to enter altseason. Some believe that altcoins will attract liquidity spilling over from mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, leading to a rise; however, some analysts argue that altcoins have already dropped 80%-90% from their highs earlier this year, and the recent performance is merely a "dead cat bounce."

Bullish Side: Trader Eugene Expects Strong Rebound for Altcoins

Last Saturday, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated that although he correctly judged the direction of this rise, he was stopped out early due to volatility, resulting in poor actual returns. Looking ahead, he believes that this rise to $100,000 confirms the previous support reversal at $90,000, and the market is likely to challenge historical highs again, which was not initially expected, but funds from MicroStrategy and ETFs seem to be flowing in continuously.

In contrast, until yesterday, most veteran players in the crypto space were still observing (even shorting), but with the expectation of historical highs reigniting market enthusiasm, a strong rebound in the total market cap of altcoins is anticipated.

Bullish Side: Analyst Claims Market Mainstream is Short-term Traders, Altseason Has Arrived

Analyst 2 Lambroz believes that the peak season for altcoins may have arrived, but he noted that market dynamics have changed. "People want to buy, but they lack confidence in any strong narrative." He pointed out that unlike in 2021, there are currently no signs of retail investors entering the market. Traders' capital turnover is faster, with almost no motivation to hold long positions. Technical trader Moustache is more optimistic. He shared a chart showing that altcoins repeatedly go through accumulation phases before experiencing explosive growth. According to his analysis, the current structure is similar to that of 2016 and 2020. "Altseason officially begins in 2025."

Neutral Side: CryptoQuant Founder Claims Previous Judgment Was Wrong, Should Focus on Institutional Incremental Funds

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that his judgment about the end of the BTC bull market two months ago was incorrect. Current on-chain data shows that BTC selling pressure is easing, while institutional funds such as ETFs are flowing in on a large scale, driving changes in market structure. He pointed out that the Bitcoin market was mainly composed of established whales, miners, and retail investors in the past, making it easier to judge the cycle's peak; however, now with the participation of ETFs, MicroStrategy, institutions, and government entities, the traditional logic of "whales selling triggers the peak" is becoming ineffective. Ki emphasized that in the new environment, more attention should be paid to the inflow of institutional incremental funds rather than old selling pressure signals.

Bearish Side: Altcoins Down 90%, Golden Age Is Premature

Meanwhile, skeptics still exist. Commentator Rekt Fencer pointed out that since last December, most altcoins have dropped 90%. This week's 10% slight rebound has triggered excessive optimism, prompting him to mock this rebound. "Is this the golden age of altcoins we've been waiting for?"

Conclusion: The Slight Rebound of Meme Coins Does Not Mean Altseason Has Arrived

According to Coingecko data, BTC's market share remains close to 60%. Overall, it is still difficult to say that we have entered altseason; rather, the previous description of "Alt G" is more fitting. Currently, the coins that are performing well are mostly showing "local bull market" characteristics.

As Arthur Hayes stated in early May, "The most frequently asked question I have received recently is, when will altseason come? The answer is sometimes it is right in front of you. HYPE."