Matrixport Research: BTC upward momentum is not exhausted, may further explore in the summer

On May 12, BTC has rebounded to the upper edge of its trading range ($106,000). With multiple positive catalysts emerging, breaking through historical highs may gradually fall within market expectations. The fading of short-term downward risks has made the path for further price increases clearer.

Easing Pressure on Tech Stocks, Market Sentiment Recovers

Previously, the first round of corrections in the U.S. tech sector was mainly triggered by downward adjustments in earnings expectations; however, with the concentrated disclosure of Q1 2025 earnings reports in April, the related pressure has significantly eased. Meanwhile, concerns about tech giants cutting AI-related data center expenditures have also been alleviated—multiple companies reaffirmed their long-term commitments to investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. These statements have boosted investor confidence, driving stock prices up and improving market sentiment simultaneously.

Trump's Policies May Form Positive Catalysts for the Market, Boosting Market Expectations

Trump has shifted his focus to announcing foreign investment plans and cooperation agreements, further enhancing market risk appetite for the stock market and BTC. The disclosure of earnings reports and the resumption of stock buybacks confirm that the market has reversed from a downward trend to a bullish pattern. Trump's tax cut policies may continue, combined with expectations of potential regulatory easing, which could serve as positive catalysts for the market and further boost expectations for economic growth. This may prompt the market to reprice growth expectations and readjust bond yields.

Multiple Positive Factors Overlap, Risk Assets Expected to Enter Favorable Trading Window in July

Risk assets (especially BTC) are expected to enter a favorable trading window before July. This period coincides with the expiration of the 90-day tariff truce agreement, the start of the Q2 earnings season, and liquidity indicators expected to peak, with several key factors highly overlapping in timing. Although this liquidity indicator has certain limitations, the widespread trust in its effectiveness may trigger a "self-fulfilling" expectation effect. As more companies incorporate BTC into their financial reserves, the market's circulating supply will further decrease, potentially leading to upward pressure on BTC prices. However, as the market enters the traditional summer trading lull, this momentum may gradually slow down.

FTX Repayment Process About to Begin, Stablecoin Inflows May Boost Market Resonance

Another important catalyst is the upcoming launch of the FTX debt repayment process. The repayment will target accounts with debt amounts exceeding $50,000 and is expected to start around May 30, 2025. The total repayment scale is estimated to be between $7 billion and $10 billion, to be distributed in stablecoin form, with a significant portion of the funds expected to flow back into the crypto asset market. This new liquidity may boost market momentum in June, resonating with the ongoing inflow of funds into BTC ETFs and the active performance of stablecoin trading.

The market's collaborative factors for maintaining BTC at high levels may be related to the advancement of a crypto enterprise IPO plan with a total scale of up to $100 billion. Coinbase was recently included in the S&P 500 index, further reflecting the growing interest of mainstream capital markets in incorporating crypto enterprises into core equity indices.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content. Matrixport Research: BTC's upward momentum is not yet exhausted and may further explore in the summer.