Will Bitcoin rise to $150,000 this year? How much longer can this bull market last?

Source: Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside

Today is May 19th, and many people are likely familiar with the number 519. On May 19, 2021, the cryptocurrency market experienced a massive crash, with Bitcoin's price plummeting sharply from around $44,000 to $29,000 (a drop of over 34%), Ethereum halving in price, and other altcoins like Dogecoin also seeing significant declines, leading to a large number of investors being liquidated and the market falling into extreme panic.

Yesterday (May 18th), Bitcoin briefly broke through the $107,000 mark, just shy of its historical high. Perhaps it's still haunted by the shadow of 519 from a few years ago, as today Bitcoin continued to experience a slight pullback, with the price around $102,500 at the time of writing. As shown in the figure below.

Just yesterday, a friend messaged me asking: Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 this year?

I replied: It's not impossible, but you also need to consider your holding cost and target. If the risk isn't too high and you have cash flow (USDT) needs, then starting to sell in batches around $100,000 could be considered. Of course, if you're holding for the long term, it doesn't matter; even if this bull market doesn't reach $150,000, the next bull market will likely see it.

My friend then asked: My Bitcoin cost is around $60,000. I want to wait until Bitcoin reaches $120,000 this year to sell half and recoup my investment, then gradually dollar-cost average during the bear market. Do you think that's feasible?

I asked: Do you have a plan B? If this year it doesn't reach $120,000, do you have a backup plan? Will it affect your future dollar-cost averaging plan?

My friend continued: No plan B. I'm mainly worried about not having enough funds to buy the dip later.

I said: Since your priority is to have enough funds to buy the dip, why not consider starting to sell in batches now (around $100,000) instead of risking uncertainty by waiting for potentially larger gains? Unless you're willing to bear that risk (i.e., facing the issue of not having enough funds to buy the dip during a bear market).

1. How to judge potential market trends based on data/indicators

In the previous article (May 14th), we outlined and shared some reference dimensions for long-term and medium-short-term price trends. By judging through different dimensions of data, we can respond to the upcoming market trends as rationally as possible to avoid excessive emotional influences.

After the article was published, some friends left messages asking: Do I need to learn and understand all the indicators you listed?

Actually, there is no standard answer to this question. Whether to understand those indicators, or which ones you need to understand… this seems to be a personal decision rather than one for me to make. I merely shared what I know and some indicators I've seen. As we mentioned in the article: Different investment cycle plans and risk preferences correspond to different investment styles, and different investment styles require various information or indicator dimensions for auxiliary reference.

Here, let's continue with the Open Interest data mentioned in the article. This is one of the better medium-short-term reference data, as it can help us analyze the potential next steps of whales (including institutional investors) to some extent. As shown in the figure below (from alphractal).

From the above figure, we can see that the cumulative Open Interest Delta value over the past 30 days (i.e., the overall sensitivity of all open options contracts to changes in the underlying asset price) has now returned to the level of 2024, when Bitcoin reached a historical high of $73,000.

If we continue to analyze according to historical patterns, we are currently in a relatively strong growth phase (i.e., positive Delta value), but we may soon experience a nearly inverse decline phase (i.e., negative Delta value), forming a periodic cyclical pattern.

Let's zoom out and compare the cumulative Open Interest Delta value over 180 days, as shown in the figure below (from alphractal).

From the further comparison in the above figure, we find a new interesting point: we are currently experiencing a new downward "curve," which usually indicates that excessive leveraged positions are being liquidated on a large scale. In simpler terms, those highly leveraged positions seem to be suffering severe losses or being forcibly liquidated due to market fluctuations. Once the Delta here turns negative again, the market may re-enter a new bottoming zone or a new accumulation area.

In summary, we can simply conclude: Based on the recent 30 days of Open Interest data, we should continue to see an upward trend in the market, and this trend may last for about 1-2 months. However, from a longer time perspective, such as starting in the third quarter of this year, we may experience a new decline or consolidation phase. After the decline or consolidation phase ends, we might see a new opportunity before the end of the year.

This seems to corroborate two previous viewpoints circulating online:

One group believes that the market will welcome a new phase of opportunity in the second quarter of this year, and Bitcoin may again touch or break its historical high. From the current market situation, this outcome seems very close.

Another group believes that by the end of this year, the market will welcome a new phase of opportunity, and Bitcoin will again break its historical high.

As for whether Bitcoin will successfully break its historical high in the next 1-2 months, or whether it will really reach $150,000 by the end of this year, we don't know. We cannot predict accurately, nor will we provide specific trading guidance. Here, we reiterate: You can combine some indicators you find useful for comprehensive auxiliary judgment, and then make the choice that feels most comfortable for you based on your position allocation and risk preference.

2. Data/indicators need to be combined with project fundamentals and macro factors

Currently, there are many indicators on-chain. For example, we have organized over 35 types in the "Bitcoin Indicator Template Table," and various indicators are basically intuitive reflections or inferences based on historical data, especially for medium-short-term trends. If you want your judgment to be more reasonable or meaningful, in addition to some necessary indicators, you may also need to consider project fundamentals and macro factors for more comprehensive evaluation.

For instance, regarding the market since last month (April), BTC's price has approached historical highs again, and ETH's price has also impressed some people, with several other altcoins performing quite well.

However, from the perspective of the cryptocurrency market's own development, we haven't seen any new innovations or disruptive changes within the crypto market recently (perhaps we just haven't seen them yet). Therefore, the rise in this phase of the market seems more attributable to improvements in macro conditions, including:

• On April 9, Trump announced a suspension of new tariff policies for most countries for 90 days.

• The U.S. and the U.K. reached a new trade agreement in early May and stated that more agreements would be announced soon.

• On May 12, the U.S. and China announced a new agreement to suspend reciprocal tariffs for 90 days.

Of course, by the time we see such news, we are often the last to know. However, capital is usually very sensitive and tends to dislike macro uncertainty. Therefore, whether you like it or not, the current cryptocurrency market seems to be heavily reliant on changes in macro conditions.

If improvements in macro conditions can be combined with positive changes in project fundamentals, then the reasons for "pump" may become more substantial. For example, the significant rise of ETH this month may be due not only to improvements in macro conditions but also to the Pectra upgrade event (May 7) and further expectations for the review of spot ETF pledges (in early May, news emerged that BlackRock and the SEC had discussed ETH pledging issues), as well as a large outflow of ETH from exchanges (outflows usually indicate that investors are increasing their holdings and have more confidence in the asset, as shown in the figure below).

Note: The above figure shows the heat map of altcoins flowing out of Binance, with red indicating a large outflow. It can be seen that the altcoins with the largest outflows currently include ETH, ENJ, SLP, FET, etc.

Although there are currently improvements in macro conditions, we still face some areas needing improvement or unknown issues, including: the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems to still be in negotiation, small-scale conflicts between India and Pakistan may reoccur, the Fed's interest rate cut issue remains unresolved, and the possibility of a U.S. economic recession is still relatively high… and so on.

At the same time, the overall sentiment of retail investors in the cryptocurrency market seems to lack the kind of frenzy seen in previous bull markets. Although there was a familiar vibe when Trump launched his coin (TRUMP token) earlier this year, it still feels a bit lacking.

In short, the current market seems to have regained some new vitality, but it appears to rely more on temporary improvements in macro conditions and the driving force of large funds (or the outflow of traditional funds). While the current cryptocurrency market looks indeed promising compared to the situation in February and March of this year, we still need to pay attention to potential new changes in macro conditions and do not rule out the possibility of new black swan events.

What we need to continue to consider is: under the current unchanged conditions, how long can the bullish trend of Bitcoin be maintained? Will this bull market really last until the end of the year?

Of course, if your target plan is for the next 5-10 years, and you believe Bitcoin will rise to $200,000, $300,000, or even $500,000 in the future, then all you need is to remain patient. You can continue to buy Bitcoin in batches and phases without worrying too much about current short-term price fluctuations. Although many people say that in the next bear market, Bitcoin will drop to $50,000 or even $30,000, that is not the most important thing. What matters is whether you will still (dare to) buy Bitcoin then and whether you have enough funds to do so.