HTX DeepThink: In the season of cryptocurrency altcoin rotation, who can catch the overflow funds from Bitcoin?

Macroeconomic Outlook: Market Sentiment Heats Up, Short-Term Still Bullish

This week, the U.S. lacks significant economic data, with market focus on the responses from Federal Reserve officials regarding the "potential for only one rate cut this year." The options market shows a dominant bullish sentiment: the Call/Put open interest ratio reaches 1.55, and the premiums for call options continue to rise; meanwhile, the short-term implied volatility (IV) has been compressed to 35--40%, marking an 18-month low.

This indicates that the market is "highly optimistic with calm volatility"—under such circumstances, Bitcoin may attempt to reach new highs within 30 to 45 days, breaking through the $105,000 to $115,000 range. However, this "high sentiment + low volatility" often conceals the risks of high leverage accumulation, and once volatility spikes or BTC effectively falls below $100,000, it could trigger a deleveraging sell-off.

Market Strategy: Rotating into Quality Altcoins, Capturing Overflowing Funds

In terms of operations, while controlling the total position, allocating some funds to fundamentally solid and highly liquid quality altcoins may capture the overflow momentum brought by Bitcoin's rise. This issue of HTX DeepThink #5 selects potential track targets for your reference.

SUI Ecosystem: Main Chain Hits New High, Leading Projects Still Undervalued

Recently, the market capitalization of the SUI main chain reached a historic high, but its ecosystem projects have yet to show systematic catch-up. This may be a key window for positioning in leading ecosystem projects at low levels. Huobi HTX has already launched two high-potential SUI projects: Haedal and Bluefin.

• Haedal: The leading LST protocol on the SUI chain, capturing 76% market share, with extremely high network effects.
• Bluefin: The main Perp DEX in the SUI ecosystem, with a market cap of only $31.6 million, yet has achieved $8.2 million in annualized revenue, with a price-to-sales ratio of only 8x, significantly undervalued compared to GMX (9.1x) and Drift (12.4x). It is about to launch a V2 upgrade, introducing a veToken model and user incentives, which is expected to boost both trading activity and protocol revenue.

Against the backdrop of sustained interest in the SUI main chain, Haedal and Bluefin, as core infrastructure projects, possess dual potential for valuation recovery and upward beta, warranting mid-term attention and positioning.

AttentionFi Sector: Capturing Bull Market Traffic Dividends

In the current bull market phase, as new projects emerge rapidly, the cost of traffic in the Web3 world has risen sharply. From a traditional user acquisition model perspective, the cost of acquiring users is typically determined by traffic × conversion rate: for example, on platforms like Telegram, Google, or Xiaohongshu, the cost per click is about $0.5 -- $1, with an average conversion rate of 10%, meaning a project needs to spend $5 -- $10 to acquire a single real retained user. Kaito provides a more efficient "traffic engine": its API is billed based on reputation × high-quality interaction, achieving a 3 to 4 times increase in real user retention under the same budget, reducing the cost per user to $2 -- $3, significantly lower than other channels, while early collaborations with multiple popular projects have accumulated a massive user pool. This cost reduction and efficiency improvement have also driven Kaito's rapid expansion—over the past three months, the number of integrated projects has increased from 30 to 120, with usage volume quadrupling.

Meanwhile, the $KAITO community staking volume has reached 19.7 million tokens, and the protocol has repurchased and burned 3.7 million tokens, further enhancing the price ceiling. On the Base chain IDO platform Virtuals, users only need to stake ≥ 5,000 $KAITO tokens to earn Virgen points for IDO quota redemption, creating a closed loop of "staking → points → arbitrage." It is important to note that if a project wishes to launch on Kaito's Yapper Leaderboard, it needs to invest a considerable amount in voting costs and $KAITO staking; in this regard, the team can use GiveRep for zero-cost reputation screening and seed community building, and later integrate with Kaito for explosive operations, similar to the relationships between large and small exchanges. GiveRep has a close relationship with the SUI Foundation, collaborating with popular SUI projects like ika and Typus, and has certain airdrop expectations. Currently, Huobi HTX has launched $KAITO, and in the increasingly fierce competition for traffic in the bull market, Kaito, through low-cost precise user targeting and protocol deflationary design, has become a potential asset worth watching.

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

About HTX DeepThink

HTX DeepThink is a dedicated insight column created by Huobi HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and hot topics in the crypto industry, injecting new thinking power into the market, helping readers "find order in chaos" in the unpredictable crypto world.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the exclusive research department under HTX Group, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of fields, including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and facilitating a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics.