I. Policy Aspect: Stablecoin Legislation Breakthrough, the "GENIUS Act" Releases Trillions of "Dollar-like Liquidity"

On May 14, 2025, the U.S. Senate passed the motion for the "GENIUS Act" stablecoin regulatory bill with a vote of 69 to 31, marking the official entry of the bill into the final amendment and full chamber voting process. This is a significant breakthrough in U.S. history as it is the first time stablecoins have been incorporated into the federal legislative framework, which also means that the crypto industry will welcome unprecedented incremental liquidity within a compliant framework. The essence of this bill is to provide a clear and legal operating mechanism for the current approximately $200 billion dollar stablecoin market, which has long existed in a gray area, effectively bringing a large amount of off-chain dollar capital into the on-chain system and opening the main channel for "dollar-like liquidity" for the entire crypto ecosystem.

The legislative background of the GENIUS Act is filled with real urgency. On one hand, stablecoins, as the form of "on-chain dollars," have become the foundational assets for crypto trading and DeFi finance, but they have long been in a regulatory vacuum in the U.S., with agencies like the Treasury and SEC often passing the buck. On the other hand, global digital currency initiatives like China's digital yuan and the EU's MiCA legislation are accelerating, and the U.S. urgently needs to provide its own answers in the "financial geopolitical competition," making the compliance of stablecoins a frontline battlefield for maintaining the global dominance of the dollar. Therefore, the GENIUS Act is endowed with strategic significance; it is not only a regulatory response to financial innovation but also a digital extension of the dollar's financial infrastructure.

From the perspective of the bill's design, it requires all stablecoins to be issued by banks or registered trust institutions at the federal or state level, backed by 100% cash or short-term U.S. Treasury bonds as reserve assets, with daily public disclosure of reserve status, and subject to joint regulation by the Treasury, SEC, and CFTC. In other words, in the future, stablecoins must not only be "compliant" but also "on-chain auditable," directly targeting the credit risks and audit transparency issues present in traditional stablecoin models like USDT. The bill also includes a CBDC exclusion clause, clarifying that its goal is not to promote central bank digital currencies but to construct a market-driven "free competition system for stablecoins," which is highly relevant in the current political climate and clears obstacles for the long-term development of market-based dollar stablecoins.

It is noteworthy that the GENIUS Act has not only received strong support from the Republican Party but has also gained tacit approval from some moderate Democrats, with Trump's camp viewing it as a core part of future digital financial strategy. Trump's crypto advisor, David Sacks, publicly stated that once the bill is passed, it will release "trillions of dollars" in on-chain demand for short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, indirectly achieving the digital digestion of U.S. debt and alleviating fiscal refinancing pressure. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury have begun to open data interfaces and audit mechanisms for compliant stablecoins, and the SEC has already started drafting accompanying regulatory rules for cryptocurrencies, indicating that government agencies are actively paving the way for the implementation of this bill.

This series of institutional and funding preparations means that after the bill is passed, a legitimate, transparent, and deeply interconnected on-chain dollar ecosystem with traditional finance will quickly take shape. Large fintech companies like Circle, PayPal, Visa, and JPMorgan are likely to be among the first to participate in the issuance and clearing system of the next generation of stablecoins, becoming pioneers in the global expansion of dollar digitalization. The crypto market will also reach a turning point under this mechanism, especially as short-term U.S. Treasury bonds will be injected on-chain in large quantities, becoming the standard collateral asset for stablecoins, whose low volatility and high credit characteristics will provide a new "risk-free interest rate anchor" for the entire on-chain financial system.

It is foreseeable that once the bill is formally legislated, the U.S. stablecoin market will transition from an unregulated state to a new paradigm of "strong regulation + high transparency," with non-compliant stablecoins like USDT and DAI potentially facing pressure for model reconstruction, while U.S.-based stablecoins like USDC and PYUSD are expected to dominate compliance. In terms of funding, according to estimates from multiple institutions, the first phase alone is expected to introduce $200 billion to $400 billion in new stablecoin issuance into the on-chain market, which will not only reconstruct the on-chain payment and clearing mechanisms but may also directly enhance the valuation anchor for Bitcoin and mainstream assets. In the past, Bitcoin's market was primarily driven by spot and futures capital, while in the future, the "on-chain dollar deposit" mechanism carried by stablecoins will become the new cornerstone of the Bitcoin price system.

The advancement of the GENIUS Act marks a historic turning point in the transformation of stablecoins from marginal tools to core financial infrastructure. It releases not only liquidity but also represents a rebalancing of the U.S. dominance over on-chain financial order. In this new framework, stablecoins will become strategic weapons for the "on-chain dollarization," and crypto finance will truly transition from a gray laboratory to an institutionalized track. With compliant funds pouring in on a large scale, the market may enter a new round of "macro bull market" in the second half of 2025, with the stablecoin sector becoming the "policy-driven main line" leading this round of market.

II. Macroeconomic Environment: U.S. Treasury Yields Decline, Funding Environment Marginally Eases, "Invisible QE" Enters New Phase

The current crypto market is undergoing a funding repricing process driven by changes in the global macro environment, with the core of this trend being the rebalancing between the structural contradictions of U.S. debt and interest rate policy, as well as the reality of a shift from tight to loose funding under the linkage of fiscal and monetary policies. Recent market changes have clearly reflected this turning signal. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has significantly declined from its peak, now falling to 4.46%, with market expectations for long-term interest rate paths becoming more flexible, reflecting that funds are beginning to reassess the balance between U.S. economic growth and inflation, which is a favorable premise for the valuation reconstruction of all risk assets, including Bitcoin. The recent decline in Treasury yields is not purely a result of market trading but rather a product of active intervention by the Treasury. This month, the U.S. Treasury announced the initiation of a $40 billion Treasury bond repurchase operation. Although it does not explicitly operate under the name of "QE" like traditional quantitative easing, its core mechanism is essentially similar to QE: actively buying back issued Treasury bonds to alleviate liquidity pressure and refinancing new debt at low interest rates. Wall Street generally views this as a form of "invisible QE" or "quasi-QE operation." More importantly, this operation does not require cooperation from the Federal Reserve, achieving suppression of actual market interest rates without expanding the Fed's balance sheet. As a result, after the start of this repurchase, the MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, quickly declined, reflecting that market expectations for future interest rate paths have stabilized, and this stability is precisely the "gentle monetary environment" signal that crypto assets need most on the macro front.

At the same time, U.S. inflationary pressures are marginally easing, with both CPI and PPI data showing month-over-month declines, and the consensus within the Federal Reserve for maintaining high interest rates is loosening. Previously, the market was concerned that "high interest rates would last longer," suppressing the valuation of risk assets, but as inflation cools and fiscal burdens increase, the Federal Reserve has gradually released signals that it may adjust its policy stance in the second half of the year. Recently, some voting members have also stopped emphasizing "continuing to raise interest rates" in their speeches, instead focusing on "flexibly responding after observing data," indicating that the Fed's tone in the next phase will shift from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing growth" and "maintaining debt sustainability." This process of policy fine-tuning essentially constitutes a driving factor for the marginal easing of the funding environment.

As the macro economy begins to slow down and the policy fine-tuning window opens, the other end of the global financial system—the crypto market—is experiencing a rare structural turning point: the on-chain funding structure is increasingly optimized, and the proportion of long-term holders is at an all-time high. According to Glassnode data, currently, 97% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit, and the on-chain non-liquid supply has also reached a historical high. This means that Bitcoin's price is not only driven by short-term speculation but is also being repriced in an environment where liquidity is gradually tightening and market confidence is strengthening. Against this structural holding backdrop, once the macro environment releases easing signals, risk appetite will quickly recover, and the valuation space for mainstream cryptocurrencies will be reopened.

More importantly, the continued decline in U.S. Treasury yields is reshaping the positioning of the "risk-free yield anchor" in global capital markets. Over the past two years, U.S. Treasury yields have exerted a suppressive effect on digital assets, but as the yield curve shifts downward, the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets versus holding cash is rapidly decreasing. In fact, during certain time windows, the yield on on-chain stablecoin investments has even surpassed that of U.S. Treasuries of the same duration, indicating that this micro spread rebalancing is driving some funds back into on-chain assets. In a low real interest rate environment, stablecoin holders are more willing to participate in DeFi to obtain excess returns, thereby driving the prices of mainstream assets represented by Bitcoin and Ethereum to continue rising.

The continuous inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs further confirms the change in the pricing logic of crypto assets due to the macro shift. Even when the U.S. stock market experiences turbulence due to fiscal and credit rating concerns, Bitcoin's price broke through historical highs of over $110,000 over the weekend, demonstrating significant resilience in the market. The inflow of funds into ETF products essentially represents a "vote" of confidence in the stability of the macro fundamentals: institutional investors believe that Bitcoin possesses long-term value anchor properties in the current environment, capable of hedging against uncertainties in traditional financial markets. As the interest rate down cycle approaches and market expectations for "re-inflation of financial assets" strengthen, Bitcoin's logic as "digital gold" for hedging and value appreciation will become increasingly attractive.

In summary, the macro environment is entering a new phase of "structural easing + policy adjustment + funding repricing." From the Treasury's repurchase operations to market expectations for the Fed's shift, and to the overall decline in bond market yields and stable inflows into ETFs, all variables are collectively driving crypto assets into a bull market trajectory with inherent resilience. In this context, Bitcoin is not only the engine of the market but also the cornerstone for the repricing of the entire digital asset ecosystem, while key sectors such as stablecoins, DeFi, and RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) will welcome larger-scale funding and user dividends under this macro catalyst.

III. On-Chain Structure: BTC Non-Circulating Supply Hits New High, ETFs Continue to Attract Capital, Chip Structure Stabilizes

The reason Bitcoin can continue to strengthen and break through the historical high of $110,000 in the current environment of intertwined macro and policy variables lies in its on-chain structure undergoing deep reconstruction. On one hand, data from on-chain analysis platforms like Glassnode shows that the non-circulating supply of BTC has reached an all-time high, indicating that more and more Bitcoin is being firmly held and locked in wallets by long-term investors, without flowing into the trading market. This phenomenon is not merely a change in technical indicators but reflects an enhancement in market structural confidence: more investors view Bitcoin as a long-term store of value rather than a short-term speculative chip, willing to exchange time for space while waiting for long-term value to be released.

This trend is a result of the continuous absorption of mainstream capital by spot Bitcoin ETF products in recent months. So far, the cumulative net inflow into multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. has exceeded $10 billion, especially with the participation of asset management giants like BlackRock and Fidelity. These funds are not for short-term arbitrage but more likely represent the "formal allocation" of long-term institutional capital such as traditional pensions, sovereign funds, and family offices to BTC. Their entry not only provides strong buying support but also has a profound impact on the market liquidity structure of Bitcoin. Compared to the previous market pattern dominated by retail traders on exchanges, characterized by extreme price fluctuations, Bitcoin's price now exhibits a more "institutional style": converging volatility, clear trends, limited pullbacks, and stable inflows.

More importantly, from the perspective of chip structure, Bitcoin is gradually shedding its historical fate of being "stuck at high positions in every bull market." This round of price increase is not driven by scattered hot money but rather by institutional investors with long-term capital backgrounds and "new long-term holders" who have a deep understanding of the macro environment and monetary system. On-chain data shows that while the number of active addresses remains stable, the proportion of short-term chips frequently moving has decreased, indicating that there has not been a rush to cash out among short-term investors, and market sentiment remains in a rationally optimistic range. Meanwhile, the average holding time of coins in the hands of long-term holders (LTH) continues to lengthen, showing that the consensus foundation for Bitcoin is further solidifying.

The inflow of ETFs, the new high in non-circulating supply, and the increasing proportion of long-term holders together constitute the current "anchor" for Bitcoin's price, which is also the fundamental reason it can achieve independent growth and resist declines amidst numerous uncertainties in traditional markets. Unlike the previous cycle, Bitcoin is gradually moving towards recognition as a "reserve asset," no longer merely a price barometer for the crypto industry but gaining strategic asset status on par with gold and bonds in the context of global capital allocation.

At the same time, a series of on-chain infrastructure surrounding the Bitcoin ecosystem is also maturing. The number of products pegged to BTC through stablecoins is continuously increasing, and the combination of on-chain DeFi tools with Bitcoin assets is becoming active. Some high-net-worth users are even using Bitcoin as collateral for on-chain lending and investment operations, which has also released some capital efficiency for Bitcoin. Projects like BTC Staking on the HTX public chain or the stablecoin anchoring Bitcoin configuration models promoted by the Tron network, such as TUSD and USDD, further strengthen Bitcoin's role in the on-chain financial system. Bitcoin is no longer just an "asset to watch the price" but is gradually becoming a "used asset." This structural logical change behind it will provide more solid support for the mid-to-long-term market.

It can be said that Bitcoin has completed its transformation from a "trading tool" to an "institutional asset," and the significance of this structural change far exceeds short-term price fluctuations. From the perspective of on-chain data, today's Bitcoin market is more mature, more stable, and possesses greater long-term potential than in any previous cycle. This not only provides a solid foundation for further price increases but also establishes a "valuation anchor" for the entire crypto asset market, becoming the true engine of the structural bull market.

IV. Trading Behavior: Healthy Long/Short Structure, Market Not Overheated, Limited Correction Space

As Bitcoin breaks through historical highs under the support of macro easing expectations and favorable policies, the most concerning question for investors is: Is the current market overheated? Will there be a sharp correction? From a trading perspective, the answer is "not yet." Although this round of price increase has been rapid, the trading structure and capital sentiment have shown a relatively healthy rhythm control, with neither panic buying nor obvious signs of excessive leverage accumulation. The funding rates in the futures market remain in a reasonable neutral range, with no significant positive premiums, indicating that while bullish sentiment is strong, it has not spiraled out of control; the price difference structure between spot and contracts also remains stable, further confirming that the current price trend is more driven by spot buying rather than derivative leverage.

From the options market perspective, the call/put ratio in mainstream exchanges remains biased towards bullish levels, especially in mid-term contracts from late June to September, where call options have been actively built, indicating that investors still hold bullish expectations for the coming quarters. Additionally, the options volatility curve shows a gentle upward slope, without becoming excessively steep due to price increases, indicating that the market has not over-priced future volatility. In this context, any technical correction is likely to be merely short-term profit-taking by bulls rather than a trend reversal. This "gentle correction, slow bull pattern" is a typical characteristic of a structural bull market.

Moreover, on-chain indicators also support this view. Although the average holding profit rate of Bitcoin has risen to a high level, "profit-taking" behavior is not concentrated; active indicators and capital inflow data are rising in sync, with no typical top characteristics of price increases diverging from user activity. Meanwhile, although the Fear and Greed Index has risen to "extreme greed," it is still distant from the highs seen in the 2021 bull market. Importantly, there has not yet been any large-scale capital outflow or institutional liquidation observed on mainstream trading platforms like Binance, HTX, or Coinbase, indicating that core participants in the market are still holding or even increasing their positions rather than retreating.

It is noteworthy that the current healthy and stable trading structure in the market is also due to the "deep deleveraging" of the previous clearing cycle. Events like the FTX collapse, LUNA wipeout, Three Arrows liquidation, and Genesis bankruptcy, while causing panic in the short term, have also cleared a large amount of excessive leverage and fragile chains, allowing the market to enter a more robust upward channel. This has laid a clean foundational environment for the steady breakthrough of Bitcoin's price in this round.

From the retail perspective, on-chain data shows that while the number of new wallets has rebounded, it has not reached the "FOMO-style explosion" levels seen in bubble cycles. Search interest, social media discussion volume, and the popularity of crypto-related content on YouTube and TikTok are rising, but have not yet formed a nationwide frenzy. In other words, the current market is more driven by structural funds and professional investors, far from reaching the level of widespread participation and frequent top signals. In other words, the "mass base" for this bull market has not yet fully activated, leaving significant room for price increases, and the extent and depth of corrections will also be strongly supported by the chip structure and professional funds, making extreme corrections similar to those in 2021 (40%-50%) unlikely.

Therefore, from the perspective of trading behavior, whether from futures funding rates, options building behavior, on-chain activity, or from capital structure and trading platform trends, the current market is not in a state of "irrational exuberance"; rather, it exhibits a calm, healthy, and rhythmic upward path. In such a market state, the correction space is relatively limited, more likely to be "strong consolidation" rather than "trend reversal." Investors should also align their strategy choices with the structural slow bull rhythm, avoiding excessive chasing and panic selling, and instead favoring "buying on dips" rather than "high-position speculation."

V. Key Sectors and Investment Logic: TRX Ecosystem and Stablecoin Payments as the Biggest Beneficiaries

In the context of significant progress in the "GENIUS Act" stablecoin bill, a marginal easing of the macro funding environment, and Bitcoin breaking through historical highs, investors' next focus is no longer just whether BTC can rise further, but which "sectors" and "assets" will truly absorb new funds and become the structural dividend winners in the next phase. From policy context to on-chain data, from funding trends to technological evolution, it is clear that the stablecoin payment sector, particularly the on-chain dollar payment system represented by TRX (Tron), is becoming the biggest beneficiary of this round of policy dividends and funding shifts.

First, the policy logic is extremely clear. The "GENIUS Act" aims to provide a federal regulatory framework for the stablecoin market, opening a positive channel between Treasury bonds and crypto dollars, essentially "legitimizing the dollar on-chain." It does not directly benefit high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH but rather benefits the infrastructure public chains and protocols that build payment networks and dollar-denominated asset clearing and settlement networks around stablecoins. The current factual leader in this sector is undoubtedly the TRON network. According to DefiLlama data, over $42 billion of USDT is circulating on the TRON network, far exceeding that on Ethereum. On-chain tracking shows that TRON currently accounts for over 75% of global stablecoin cross-border transaction volume, making it the most widely used "on-chain dollar highway" in the real world. This means that once regulatory dividends and legalization channels are opened, TRON will be the most direct beneficiary, naturally enjoying the status of "the first chain for compliant stablecoin applications."

From the perspective of funding behavior, market attention has quietly shifted towards key assets in the TRX ecosystem. TRX, as the Gas Token of the TRON mainnet, also serves as the underlying value support for the entire TRON financial system, and has been steadily rising for several weeks. Compared to other mainstream public chain tokens, TRX's price increase has not been extremely dramatic, but its volatility is minimal, and the main capital holdings are stable, indicating a characteristic of "structural funds continuously accumulating." The ecological tokens surrounding TRX, such as JUST (a DeFi lending protocol on Tron) and USDD (the native stablecoin of Tron), are also becoming key focus areas for high-net-worth investors and VCs. The frequency of technological updates and external collaborations in the TRON ecosystem has also noticeably accelerated—recently, Sun Yuchen emphasized his goal of promoting the global payment popularization of "on-chain dollars" during his visit to the U.S. and interactions with the Trump family, aligning closely with U.S. policy directions. This "policy resonance + technological implementation + reasonable asset pricing" pattern is a rare "triple resonance" that few crypto projects can achieve in the early stages of a bull market, and its scarcity constitutes the core support for TRX's current valuation.

More importantly, compared to other Layer 1 ecosystems, TRON does not pursue high-frequency speculation or sky-high narratives but steadily advances around the clear main lines of "stablecoin payments" and "on-chain financial efficiency." This coherence in narrative is key to its ability to traverse multiple bear markets. As global demand for on-chain payments, cross-border settlements, and tokenized dollars continues to grow, coupled with U.S. policy gradually shifting towards "maintaining global financial dominance with dollar stablecoins," the stablecoin payment mainline represented by TRON is likely to achieve a "strategic repricing" from the margins to the main stage within the next 1-2 years.

In summary, with the advancement of the "GENIUS Act" and the gradual shift in global policies, the entire crypto market is about to welcome the explosion of the "on-chain dollar era." Those ecosystems that truly undertake dollar payment functions and already possess application foundations will become the biggest winners. TRON not only has real payment data and usage foundations but also has a clear technological path and policy strategic alignment. Its ecological tokens TRX, USDD, USDJ, TUSD, SUN, BTT, and others will become the core investment targets most worthy of attention in this round of macro liquidity and policy dividends.

VI. Conclusion: BTC's New High is Just the Prelude; On-Chain Dollars and Structural Bull Market are Just Beginning

The advancement of the "GENIUS Act" marks a paradigm shift in U.S. regulation of crypto assets—from "suppressing speculation" to "embracing digital dollar infrastructure." This is a profound restructuring of the global capital market. Bitcoin, as the purest "non-sovereign anti-inflation asset," is not only achieving a technical breakthrough but also completing a "cognitive upgrade" and "status elevation." Its $110,000 price is just a starting point; larger funding channels have just begun to open.

For investors, the real opportunity lies in positioning early in structural trends and laying out ecological infrastructure, rather than merely speculating on prices. In the second half of 2025, we have reason to believe that Bitcoin's next target is $150,000 to $180,000, while the true explosion will be the billion-dollar spring of the "on-chain dollar ecosystem."