火币成长学院

As Web3 attempts to return value ownership to humanity, a more profound paradigm shift has quietly been brewing in the silicon-based world. The concept of Web 4.0 was first systematically proposed by Sigil Wen, founder of Conway Research, with its core no longer being the interaction between people, nor the interaction between people and information, but rather the economic interaction between AIs.

On February 6, 2026, China's financial regulatory system simultaneously released two highly significant policy documents: the "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currencies and Other Issues" (Yin Fa [2026] No. 42) jointly issued by the People's Bank of China and eight other ministries, and the "Regulatory Guidelines for the Issuance of Asset-Backed Securities Tokens for Domestic Assets Overseas" launched concurrently by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

Stock contracts, as an innovative product connecting traditional financial markets with the cryptocurrency derivatives system, are rapidly reshaping the on-chain trading landscape. We will delve into the product nature, growth logic, technical architecture, and market ecology of this emerging sector, and conduct a systematic analysis of the regulatory challenges it faces and its future prospects.

In early 2026, the cryptocurrency market entered a period of volatility, but it was undergoing a pressure test driven by the escalation of macro conflicts and global liquidity disturbances. The tariff threats between the US and Europe over the sovereignty issue of Greenland were soon softened by Trump, who canceled the tariff threats. A Trump-style TACO deal reappeared.

As institutional funds continue to increase their share in the cryptocurrency market, privacy is shifting from a marginalized demand for anonymity to a key infrastructure capability for blockchain's integration into the real financial system. The public transparency of blockchain was once regarded as its core value proposition, but as institutional participation becomes the dominant force, this characteristic is revealing structural limitations. For enterprises and financial institutions, the complete exposure of transaction relationships, position structures, and strategic rhythms itself constitutes significant business risks.

Entering 2026, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a profound structural transformation. The long-validated "four-year bull-bear cycle" is losing its explanatory power over the market, replaced by a structural evolution process characterized by the parallel logic of multiple assets, differentiated capital behavior, and a slowing price rhythm.

The turning point of the cryptocurrency market in 2025 lies not in price, but in structure: the funding side shifts from retail to institutional dominance, the asset side upgrades from "crypto-native narratives" to an on-chain dollar system centered around stablecoins and RWA, and the regulatory side transitions from gray area gaming to the normalization of global regulation.

The recent fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are not isolated events, but rather structural adjustments triggered by the overlapping of three macro factors over time. First, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut during Super Central Bank Week did not initiate a clear easing cycle; instead, through the dot plot and voting structure, it released signals of restraint regarding future liquidity, correcting the market's expectations of "continuous easing."

Ethereum will undergo a major upgrade named Fusaka on December 3, 2025. This is the third milestone update for Ethereum since The Merge and the Dencun upgrade, aimed at significantly enhancing the network's scalability, reducing transaction costs, and optimizing node operation efficiency, with a particular focus on upgrading and optimizing features related to account abstraction.

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant rebound, with Bitcoin breaking through $94,000 and re-establishing itself in a key range. Sentiment and liquidity have shown a phase of recovery, but this rebound is primarily driven by improved expectations of macro liquidity, the return of funds after panic liquidation, and a technical rebound, which is not sufficient to prove the systematic initiation of a bull market.