Market scenario for the second half of 2025: Can Bitcoin continue to reach new highs? Is there still a chance for an altcoin season this year?

Source: Talking about Li and Talking about the Outside

1. How long will this phase of the market last?

I remember when we discussed the bull market topic a few days ago, we mentioned in the article: from a longer time perspective, for example, starting in the third quarter of this year, we may experience new declines or consolidation.

Based on some current on-chain data, it seems that this trend is already showing some signs. For instance, by continuing to observe the Bitcoin Supply LTH and STH indicators, we can find that as the price of Bitcoin has started to rise again recently, STH (i.e., short-term holders, referring to investors who have held Bitcoin assets for less than 155 days) are no longer keen on buying (hoarding) Bitcoin, but instead choose to continue selling their holdings. As shown in the figure below.

In contrast to STH Supply, LTH Supply is still maintaining growth in this phase. The recent rise in Bitcoin's price should mainly be driven by whales (including institutions). However, as Bitcoin's price continues to rise, the demand from LTH typically begins to slow down, which can also lead to a return of STH sentiment. Often at this time, the potential selling pressure in the market will rise again, which is a typical signal that Bitcoin's price is approaching the top of a phase cycle.

Looking at the Bitcoin Realized Price indicator, the actual cost price for STH is currently around $94,600, as shown in the figure below.

Meanwhile, the actual cost price for LTH (long-term holders) averages around $33,000, as shown in the figure below.

This means that around $94,600 is a relatively important support level in the short term, but compared to LTH, the current price still seems to have considerable room for growth. It appears that the behaviors of STH and LTH investors in the current market phase still show significant divergence.

In short, the current market still has certain upward potential (long-term holders continue to buy and accumulate). We will continue to be bullish on the upcoming trend, but if we speculate based on time, we may need to maintain a relatively cautious attitude in the third quarter of this year, and there is a possibility that the market will experience a significant correction again in the fourth quarter (we will provide a scenario below).

2. The "script" for the market in the second half of this year

I remember in an earlier article, we shared our target expectation for Bitcoin in this bull market cycle to be between $100,000 and $120,000, as shown in the figure below. From the current results, this target has been achieved, and it seems possible to reach or break through $120,000 in the near future (for example, in June).

However, we have also repeatedly shared a viewpoint in previous articles: market opportunities often coexist with risks.

Continuing to look at the Supply LTH and STH indicators mentioned above, if Bitcoin's price can create a new high and break through $120,000 in June, then short-term holders may continue to FOMO, while long-term holders may take the opportunity to start selling Bitcoin again.

At the same time, if we further consider some macro factors, the market in the second half of this year is destined to become extraordinary and may experience significant volatility. Specifically regarding macro factors, we have previously listed and analyzed them:

For example, regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, although many analysts believed that the Federal Reserve might cut rates in June, based on the latest situation, the probability of a rate cut in June is actually very low.

For instance, regarding the U.S. debt issue, according to public data, as of May 2025, the total U.S. debt has reached $36.2 trillion, of which publicly held debt is $28.9 trillion, and intra-governmental debt is $7.31 trillion. In the current high-interest-rate environment, continuing to solve the debt problem through refinancing will face higher costs, which may also have a certain impact on the global market (including the crypto market).

Additionally, there are issues related to U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical conflicts, etc.

Therefore, if Bitcoin reaches a historical high and enters consolidation in June, some altcoin prices may continue to be driven up, but we do not believe that a comprehensive altcoin market will start at this stage. The current bull market still primarily belongs to Bitcoin. If your risk tolerance is not that high, or if you are only doing short-term altcoin swing trading, then this may be a good opportunity for you to take profits from altcoins before the end of June.

As we enter July, global macro factors may further change. For example, the 90-day deadline given by Trump regarding tariff issues will expire (on April 9, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs imposed on multiple countries), and the Federal Reserve may also provide clearer directions regarding interest rates and other policies.

Considering various new uncertainties, and even the possibility of unknown black swan events, we will maintain a cautious attitude towards the overall market performance starting in the third quarter. Additionally, since Bitcoin has already risen significantly since April, the crypto market may face a new round of phase-based small corrections or consolidation starting from this period.

This situation may continue for 1-2 months. If Bitcoin can indeed break through $120,000 and reach $130,000 before then, any small correction during this period could potentially be around 10-20%, meaning Bitcoin might drop back to around $104,000 for consolidation.

As retail investors' sentiment turns pessimistic or cautious again, we may start to see some positive news in the market, and the market sentiment may quietly undergo some changes. This period (July-August) is also the most likely window for new altcoin opportunities, especially concepts like AI, RWA, Staking, and Stablecoins (referring to projects related to stablecoins, see our historical articles on stablecoins from March 28, May 8, etc.), DeFi, Memes, etc., may continue to be speculated upon.

As we move into August and September, combined with possible expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the U.S. may introduce clearer regulatory policies regarding cryptocurrencies, and there may also be new developments regarding altcoin ETFs… The high-profile time for altcoins in this bull market may officially begin in September, and Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D indicator) may start to decline rapidly, with many altcoins potentially experiencing several-fold increases, and it is not impossible for some new coins to see exponential gains in a short time. This means that during this period, there is a certain probability that the market will welcome what is known as the "altcoin season."

However, we still maintain the viewpoint from previous articles that there are too many altcoins in this cycle, which will lead to severe dilution of liquidity, and it does not possess the characteristics of a comprehensive altcoin season like in previous bull market cycles. If you do not want to miss potential opportunities, then it is advisable to start paying attention to projects with good fundamentals, sound token economics (no large unlocks), and those that align with popular narratives.

Of course, if you do not have the time or energy to conduct project research but do not want to miss potential altcoin opportunities, the simplest approach is still to take a position that you can afford to risk and gradually buy into leading projects like ETH and SOL. They might still have a chance for 1-2 times performance this year.

If the aforementioned altcoin season really arrives, then as people once again fall into the frenzy of the bull market, potential risks may also arise at any time. We believe that this so-called altcoin season will not last long. As we enter October, as mentioned earlier, the market may face another significant correction. Bitcoin may drop to around $94,600, while altcoins may face at least a 20-30% correction, and many people may find themselves trapped at the market peak again.

But history is always like this, repeating one phase after another. As the possibility of the fourth quarter market starting declines, retail investors will once again choose to hand over their chips, while whales may continue to accumulate after taking profits and prepare for a new round of speculation.

The fourth quarter of this year is theoretically the last bull tail opportunity of this cycle (2022-2025). As the market enters a consolidation phase again in October-November, retail sentiment may drop to a new low, and we may start to see new positive market news. We might also witness the beginning of some emerging narratives being speculated upon (most likely still focused on new fields like AI and RWA, while not excluding older fields like GameFi).

If all goes well, before the end of the year or postponed to the first quarter of next year (2026), we may once again see a small wave of decent market performance. However, we do not know how high Bitcoin can ultimately rise, nor do we know if it will reach the $150,000 that many people currently expect.

Theoretically, starting in 2026, we will face a new round of cyclical recurrence, especially for those altcoins without long-term fundamentals, which will enter a new cycle. The subsequent bear market may drop them to the point where they are unrecognizable. Therefore, if you still want to retain some positions long-term before the end of the year, the safest options are to only hold BTC and USDC.

Unless the market undergoes some new transformations, which could break the existing four-year cycle pattern, Bitcoin may lead the crypto market into a new super cycle (see our thoughts on the topic of transformation in the article from January 17).

However, it should be reminded that market trends are unpredictable, and the "script" above is merely a possible speculation about the market in the second half of the year. The timing and price descriptions may be incorrect and are not investment advice. DYOR.