Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55%, which is $2.06 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $249.1 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.72%, of which USDT accounts for 62.05%.

This week, BTC's price has shown a range-bound fluctuation, currently priced at $103,655; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuation, currently priced at $2,481.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number have risen while most have fallen, including: SKY with a 7-day increase of 10%, LA with a 7-day increase of 183.83%, MASK with a 7-day increase of 47.53%, and ANIME with a 7-day increase of 37.33%.

This week, there was a net outflow of $130.8 million from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs; meanwhile, there was a net inflow of $280.8 million into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs.

On June 6, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 46 (lower than last week), with the sentiment this week being: neutral over the past 7 days.

Market Forecast:

This week, stablecoins continued to be issued, with net outflows from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs continuing the trend from last week, while Ethereum spot ETFs saw net inflows. Both BTC and ETH remain in a range-bound fluctuation. The RSI index is at 49.59, indicating neutrality, and the altcoin season index is at 18. This week, it was announced that the U.S. adjusted non-farm payrolls for May exceeded expectations, with the "small non-farm" employment index showing the smallest increase since March 2023. The Fear & Greed Index remains neutral.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in June is only 2.6%, with rate cuts expected to begin in Q3 of this year. The market shows two conditions: listed companies "rushing to buy BTC" and profit-takers along with spot ETF sell-offs. If there are no major events or new liquidity influx, BTC is expected to remain fluctuating around $100,000 to $105,000 next week. Attention can be paid to the progress of the relationship between Chuanma.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On June 2, according to Cointelegraph, at the ETHGlobal Prague conference, Ethereum founder Vitalik stated that Ethereum will expand L1 scale by about 10 times within a year, and then "take a breath" before the next leap;

2. On June 3, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is seeking opinions on whether to amend rules to allow the WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund to create and redeem physical assets;

3. On June 3, according to South Korea's JTBC television, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung was elected president of South Korea. Lee has promised to push for the approval of a cryptocurrency spot ETF and proposed issuing a stablecoin based on the Korean won;

4. On June 4, documents showed that Trump's social media platform Truth Social submitted a Bitcoin ETF application;

5. On June 4, according to Decrypt, Ethereum co-founder and Consensys CEO Joe Lubin stated on Tuesday that his company is negotiating with a "very powerful" country's "major sovereign wealth funds and banks" regarding potential projects based on Ethereum;

6. On June 4, Donald Trump Jr., co-founder of WLFI, clarified in a post that "the Trump Organization has no connection to this wallet product (developed in collaboration with Magic Eden and TRUMP Meme). Eric Trump and I know nothing about this. Please stay tuned------World Liberty Financial, which we have been working hard to advance, will soon launch our official wallet";

7. On June 5, according to CoinDesk, stablecoin issuer Circle completed its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange at $31 per share, exceeding the original expected pricing range ($24-26), raising $1.1 billion, with a valuation of $6.2 billion. The stock code is "CRCL" and trading will begin on Thursday. The IPO originally planned to issue 24 million shares but was expanded to over 34 million shares due to surging demand. Circle's USDC is the second-largest stablecoin in the U.S., and its listing comes as U.S. lawmakers push for stablecoin regulatory legislation;

8. On June 5, YZi Labs announced an investment in OneKey. OneKey is an open-source hardware wallet project focused on enhancing the security of crypto assets and empowering global users to manage their assets independently;

9. On June 5, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated that the U.S. economy has declined over the past six weeks, with hiring slowing down, and consumers and businesses worried about price increases related to tariffs. Regarding inflation, the report stated that prices are "moderately rising," but there is a general expectation among businesses that future costs and prices will rise at a faster pace;

10. On June 5, according to the Wall Street Journal, after Musk criticized the Republican Party's massive tax and spending bill, Trump seemed to have lost patience with Musk. Meanwhile, Musk was annoyed by Trump's decision to withdraw the nomination of a key ally to lead NASA. A senior White House official stated that Trump was unhappy with Musk's decision to criticize the bill he signed, expressing confusion over Musk's increased criticism after closely collaborating for four months. The official noted that Trump's senior advisors were caught off guard by Musk's latest offensive.

Macroeconomics

1. On June 4, the U.S. May ADP employment figure recorded an increase of 37,000, the smallest increase since March 2023, with market expectations at 110,000;

2. On June 5, the European Central Bank lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with market expectations, marking the seventh consecutive meeting of rate cuts. The main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were lowered from 2.4% and 2.65% to 2.15% and 2.4%, respectively;

3. On June 6, according to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is 97.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%;

4. On June 6, the U.S. adjusted non-farm payrolls for May were 139,000, with expectations of 130,000, and the previous value was revised from 177,000 to 147,000;

5. On June 7, according to official data from the People's Bank of China, China's gold reserves at the end of May were reported at 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), an increase of 60,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons) month-on-month, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation.

ETF

According to statistics, from June 2 to June 6, there was a net outflow of $130.8 million from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs; as of June 6, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.208 billion, currently holding $19.327 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.137 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $128.868 billion.

There was a net inflow of $280.8 million into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs.

Envisioning the Future

Upcoming Events

1. NFT NYC 2026 will be held in New York, USA from June 23 to 25, 2025;

2. Permissionless IV will be held in New York, USA from June 24 to 26, 2025;

3. EthCC 8 will be held in Cannes, France from June 30 to July 3, 2025;

4. IVS2025 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan from July 2 to 4, 2025;

5. The "OpenLedger China Tour" Hong Kong stop will be held on June 13 (Friday) from 18:30 to 21:30. This series of events will successively visit five cities (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu).

Project Progress

1. The chain Skate, aimed at connecting all VMs, will release its launch date and promotional video on June 9, possibly hinting at the TGE date;

2. The Base ecosystem social prediction market Upside is set to launch on June 10.

Important Events

1. Circle has frozen 58 million USDT related to the Libra scandal. The crypto law firm Burwick Law has applied for a temporary restraining order in the Southern District of New York and has received approval, planning to hold a preliminary injunction hearing on June 9;

2. French Hill, chairman of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, has set the review date for the House cryptocurrency market structure bill for June 10.

Token Unlocking

1. GMT (GMT) will unlock 85.97 million tokens on June 9, valued at approximately $4.33 million, accounting for 1.43% of the circulating supply;

2. Vana (VANA) will unlock 14.8 million tokens on June 12, valued at approximately $94.48 million, accounting for 12.33% of the circulating supply;

3. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on June 13, valued at approximately $12.72 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulating supply;

4. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 163 million tokens on June 15, valued at approximately $21.59 million, accounting for 1.63% of the circulating supply;

5. Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on June 15, valued at approximately $42.61 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply;

6. Horizen (ZEN) will unlock 810,000 tokens on June 15, valued at approximately $8.28 million, accounting for 3.89% of the circulating supply.

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Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global cryptocurrency investors. We have built a "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking" integrated service system, offering in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessment of potential projects, and all-day market volatility monitoring, combined with our weekly dual-updates of "Hotcoin Selection" strategy live broadcasts and "Blockchain Today Headlines" daily news briefings, to provide precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, jointly seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.