Binance Onboarding Pathway Research Report: Alpha, IDO, Futures, Spot, and Subsequent CEX Performance Breakdown

Author: @OneCryptoNomad
Source: IOSG Ventures
This study analyzes the token lifecycle performance of Binance's four major listing channels—Alpha, IDO, Futures, and Spot—and tracks their subsequent listings on Bitget, Bybit, Coinbase, and Upbit, focusing on return performance, listing rhythm, track preferences, and FDV ranges.

1. Performance Review

• The median 14-day FDV for most channels is negative, reflecting that most projects peak in valuation upon listing;
• Binance Alpha shows the most explosive performance (average 220%), but with high volatility;
• Binance IDO has a well-balanced short-term increase and a high conversion rate (to Futures and Spot);
• Binance Spot has the weakest short-term performance, possibly due to being an exit point for early investors;
• Bitget and Coinbase perform well in the secondary market, while Bybit and Upbit are more average.

1. Platform Selection by FDV Range

• Binance Spot prefers large-cap projects (>$500M);
• Alpha mainly supports early projects under $200M, suitable for testing the waters;
• IDO focuses on medium-sized projects in the $70M--$200M range;
• Bitget / Bybit have flexible ranges but lean towards projects with growth potential or large market caps;
• Coinbase / Upbit prefer projects with strong compliance and high valuations.

1. Expected Listing Timelines

• Alpha → Spot: Average about 60 days;
• IDO → Spot: Average about 17 days;
• Futures → Spot: Average only 14 days;
• Futures may be the fastest channel.

1. Track Preferences

• Alpha: Prefers Meme, AI;
• IDO: Prefers Infra, AI;
• Spot: Covers Infra, Meme, AI;
• Futures: Broader, focusing on Infra, AI, Meme;
• Project teams need to adjust narrative directions based on platform preferences.

1. Listing Pathways Advancement

• Alpha → Futures: Conversion rate 37.8%
• Alpha → Spot: Conversion rate 12.2%
• IDO → Futures: Conversion rate 66.7%
• IDO → Spot: Conversion rate 23.8%
• Achieving about 40% FDV increase is a common characteristic for entering the next stage platforms.

1. Alternative Platform Performance

• Bitget is the most accommodating alternative CEX, especially friendly to Alpha/IDO projects;
• Bybit also shows a high willingness to accept IDO projects;
• Coinbase / Upbit list very few projects, with strict reviews and longer cycles.

This study focuses on the lifecycle performance of tokens listed through Binance channels (Alpha, the community commonly refers to as IDO's Exclusive TGE, Futures, and Spot) and tracks these projects' subsequent listing pathways on centralized exchanges (CEX) such as Bitget, Bybit, Upbit, and Coinbase. The analysis covers token return performance, listing timing, project track preferences, and valuation distribution (FDV dynamics), aiming to provide strategic listing pathway suggestions for project teams and establish a data-driven price discovery and trading strategy evaluation framework for investors.

Terminology Explanation: What do Binance's Spot / Futures / IDO / Alpha listings refer to?

Binance Spot is Binance's most basic trading platform, where users can buy or sell tokens at the current market price, completing asset delivery once a transaction is made, allowing for free holding, transfer, or sale.
Binance Futures provides cryptocurrency derivatives trading services, allowing users to go long or short and use leverage to amplify gains or losses.
Binance IDO is a public fundraising channel for retail users, where users participate in new projects' token issuance on the BNB chain by staking BNB or completing tasks set by the Binance team in the Alpha Quest, usually occurring before the tokens officially list on other platforms.
Binance Alpha is a token discovery platform launched by Binance, integrating Pancakeswap and other on-chain DEXs on the BNB Chain, supporting early-stage projects with growth potential, emphasizing experimentation and token diversity.

Research Scope

Exchange Selection: The projects tracked in this study were initially listed on Binance's series of channels, and their subsequent performance on Bitget, Bybit, Coinbase, and Upbit is also examined, as these platforms are the most common CEXs after Binance.
Time Limit: Only listing events after February 2025 are included. This time point is used to filter out outdated market logic, aligning more closely with current listing dynamics.
Understanding the token listing pathways is extremely important for both project teams and investors:

• For project teams, the performance of different platforms will directly affect resource allocation and listing rhythm arrangements;
• For investors, the performance of tokens on different platforms is an important basis for position management and determining whether to chase prices.

1. Price Discovery

1.1 Return Rate
Indicator Definition: In this section, we measure the rise and fall of FDV within 14 days after the token listing to assess the short-term price discovery capabilities of different platforms. We use the FDV corresponding to the closing price on the first listing day as a benchmark and compare it to the highest FDV within the 14 days.

Overall, the median 14-day FDV for all platforms is negative, indicating that in the current cycle, most projects peak in valuation upon listing.

• Binance Alpha: Average about +77%, median -7.6%. Most projects have limited returns, but a few projects explode, showing Alpha's high volatility characteristics. Although performance is differentiated, the downside space is limited, providing exposure for project teams and an asymmetric return structure for investors.
• Binance IDO and Futures: Medians are -16.3% and -21.7%, but averages are +28% and -20%. This indicates that most projects perform generally, but a few projects raise the overall average. Futures perform relatively weakly, mainly because most projects are added after being listed for a while, past the peak of volatility.
• Binance Spot: Median -29.7%, average -20%. As the most prestigious platform, Spot listings may actually become exit points for early investors, leading to price pressure.
• Bitget and Coinbase: Perform steadily, with Bitget's median -19.8%, average about 21%; Coinbase's median -7.7%, average about 18%. Both have strong capabilities to carry momentum after being listed on Binance.
• Bybit and Upbit: Perform moderately, with Bybit's median -22.1%, average 8.9%; Upbit's median -24.6%, average -5%. Upbit listings usually occur later, with project enthusiasm waning, resulting in weaker performance.

1.2 Surge Magnitude
Indicator Definition: This section measures the ratio of the highest FDV within 14 days after the token listing to the listing FDV, used to assess the short-term upward potential provided by each platform.

This indicator helps investors judge the upward potential of tokens in the early listing phase, while also providing project teams with a reference to understand market demand, selling pressure intensity, and each platform's price discovery capabilities.

• Binance Alpha: Average surge magnitude reaches 220%, median 19.7%. Some projects only have slight fluctuations, but many projects experience dramatic increases after listing, demonstrating Alpha's strong short-term speculative nature and price discovery capability, making it the channel with the strongest upward potential among all platforms.
• Binance IDO: Average surge about 75%, median 11.5%. Most projects have good speculation after listing.
• Binance Futures: Average surge 27%, median only 4.1%. It has some traffic inflow, contributing to price momentum, and serves as a good auxiliary exposure platform.
• Binance Spot: Performance is unsatisfactory, with an average surge of only 15%, median 0.9%. Due to market expectations being fulfilled, projects face strong selling pressure upon listing.
• Coinbase: Average surge 60%, median 21.1%. It has the strongest catalytic effect among all CEXs, mainly benefiting from the U.S. user base, but has a low listing frequency.
• Bybit / Bitget: Average surge 70--80%, with medians around 20%, showing a strong speculative atmosphere and significant short-term volatility, making them very good listing choices.
• Upbit: Average surge 35%, median 0%. Trading depth is weak, and user enthusiasm is relatively limited.

1. FDV Distribution at Listing
   This section starts from the FDV distribution of projects currently listed on each platform, providing pathway planning suggestions for project teams. Projects at different valuation stages are suitable for different listing channels, and understanding the FDV acceptance range of platforms helps teams more accurately match listing rhythm and platform strategies.
   
   

• Binance Spot: Over 60% of projects have FDV above $500 million, clearly preferring large-cap projects. The platform has high requirements for project scale and investment institution background, making it more suitable for mature projects with established valuations.
• Binance Alpha: Covers a wide range, with FDV mostly concentrated below $200 million. This aligns with Alpha's "experimental field" positioning, suitable for projects with early-stage valuations but potential.
• Binance Futures: Over half of the projects have FDV exceeding $500 million, but there is also a certain distribution in the $70 million--$500 million range. Futures serves more as a follow-up channel for already listed projects, suitable for projects with relatively stable valuations.
• Binance IDO: FDV is mostly concentrated in the $70 million--$200 million range, indicating a preference for medium-cap projects. It is suitable for public offerings conducted after sufficient product, community, and strategy preparations.
• Bitget: Covers a complete valuation range from below $30 million to above $500 million, with a concentrated distribution in the $70 million--$200 million and above $500 million ranges. This indicates high platform acceptance but a preference for medium to large-cap projects with existing enthusiasm or institutional backing.
• Bybit: Nearly half of the projects have FDV above $500 million, and the $70 million--$200 million range is also well covered. It has the dual capability of carrying short-term enthusiasm and promoting medium-cap projects.
• Coinbase: Almost all project FDVs are above $500 million, reflecting its compliance threshold and high-cap preference, making the platform more suitable for mature and highly compliant projects.
• Upbit: All listed projects are above $200 million, with most exceeding the $500 million threshold. This indicates that the Korean market has high market cap requirements, making it more suitable as a supplementary channel in later stages.

3. Platform Track Preferences

Project teams need to understand the preference differences of different platforms in track selection. The following analysis focuses only on the distribution of Binance's four major channels in terms of tracks.

Additionally, the total number of projects listed on different channels also reflects the difficulty of listing. Generally, platforms with fewer projects have stricter selection criteria.

• Binance Spot: Approximately 50 projects listed
• Binance Futures: Approximately 90 projects listed
• Binance Alpha: Approximately 80 projects listed
• Binance IDO: Approximately 20 projects listed

Binance IDO:

• Prefers Infra (7 projects) and AI (6 projects).
• The vertical distribution is concentrated, covering only 6 tracks.
• Clearly focuses on underlying technology and emerging application scenarios, prioritizing infrastructure and AI projects.

Binance Spot:

• Prefers Infra (18 projects), Meme (8 projects), and AI (8 projects).
• Covers multiple subcategories such as DeFi, RWA, GameFi, Dapps, etc.
• The vertical distribution is the most balanced, but infrastructure projects still dominate.

Binance Futures:

• The platform with the most listed projects, covering 35 Infra and 21 AI projects.
• Meme (14) and DeFi (8) also have a significant share.
• Broad track coverage, preferring projects that are market-active and narrative-driven.

Binance Alpha:

• Primarily focuses on Meme (25) and AI (20), highlighting speculative narratives and experimental themes.
• The number of Infra projects is 10, and it also includes RWA (5), DeFi (4), and GameFi, etc.
• Alpha serves as an experimental field for speculative and conceptual projects.

Summary:

• Project teams need to adjust product positioning and market narratives based on each platform's vertical preferences.
• AI projects are a popular track supported by all four major channels.
• Meme projects dominate in Alpha, with good coverage in Spot and Futures as well.
• Infra projects are the most inclusive core track, aside from Alpha.

4. Listing Pathway Analysis

Many project teams often ask a key question: Can Alpha or IDO serve as a springboard to enter Binance Spot? Let's look at the data:

• Alpha → Futures: Conversion rate is 37.8% (31/82), making it a relatively effective pre-channel.
• Alpha → Spot: Conversion rate is only 12.2% (10/82), overall relatively low.
• IDO → Futures: Highest conversion rate, reaching 66.7% (14/21).
• IDO → Spot: Conversion rate is 23.8% (5/21), better than Alpha.

Alpha is more suitable as an early testing channel, with over 30% of projects successfully entering Futures, but to advance to Spot, strong fundamentals and market performance are still required. In contrast, IDO projects are more solid in brand recognition and community foundation, possessing higher promotion potential. Project teams should view Alpha and IDO as starting points for entering the Binance ecosystem, rather than endpoints.
4.1 Project Performance Threshold
How do projects that successfully advance from Alpha / IDO to Binance Spot perform in the early stages? Are there any patterns to learn from?

• Alpha → Spot: The median surge in FDV within 14 days during the Alpha phase is only 5.2%, far below the 30--50% of other pathways, but its average is as high as 113.5%, the highest among all pathways. This indicates significant performance differentiation, with some projects having strong explosive potential, but most have limited increases. Binance Spot listings do not entirely rely on market speculation but place more emphasis on product quality and hard metrics like user data.
• Alpha → Futures and both IDO pathways (→ Spot and → Futures) have median surges concentrated around 30--45%, with averages between 51%--105%, showing stable performance.

Overall, if a project can achieve about a 40--50% FDV surge within two weeks after being listed on a pre-channel, it is more likely to gain further favor from Futures or Spot. This can serve as a reference standard for project teams to evaluate subsequent listing potential.
4.2 Waiting Time
Project teams also need to set reasonable expectations: How long does it typically take from Alpha or IDO to Binance Spot listing? Without a clear timeline, they may miss market windows or lose community attention.

• Alpha → Spot: Average waiting time is about 60 days, with some projects even exceeding 120 days. The overall distribution is wide, indicating that this pathway lacks predictability, making it more suitable as a platform for exploration rather than a direct springboard to Spot.
• Alpha → Futures: Average only takes 30 days, with a noticeably faster rhythm than Spot, showing stronger market response efficiency.
• IDO → Spot and IDO → Futures: Average waiting time is 17 days, with most projects completing within one month after listing. Thanks to strong community mobilization and unified rhythm arrangements, IDO projects have relatively controllable rhythms in subsequent listing pathways.
• Futures → Spot: The fastest among all pathways, averaging only 14 days, with highly concentrated time distribution.

If the team's goal is to quickly achieve Binance Spot listing, Futures is currently observed to be the most certain transfer pathway.

5. Alternative Pathways: Entering Other CEXs

Not all projects will consider Binance Spot as their only goal. More and more projects are turning to mainstream platforms like Bitget, Bybit, Coinbase, and Upbit after Alpha or IDO. Some platforms respond quickly and have considerable liquidity, becoming viable alternatives.
5.1 Listing Quantity
How many projects successfully enter other mainstream CEXs after Alpha or IDO?

• Alpha → Bitget: Listing rate is 34.1% (28/82), far ahead. Bybit is 17.1% (14/82), Coinbase is 6% (6/82), and Upbit has only listed 2 related projects.

Bitget has the highest acceptance of Alpha projects, possibly due to its open attitude towards emerging projects and more flexible listing thresholds. Bybit also shows some interest in Alpha projects.

• IDO → Bitget and Bybit: Listing rates are 61.9% (13/21) and 47.6% (10/21), respectively, while Upbit is 9%, and Coinbase has no records.

Compared to Alpha, IDO projects are more attractive on other platforms, possibly due to their stronger brand building and community momentum. Bitget and Bybit also have stronger acceptance capabilities for IDO projects, making them important pathways for project teams to consider.
5.2 Listing Waiting Time
How long does it typically take for projects to follow up on mainstream CEX listings after being listed on Binance from Alpha or IDO?

• Bitget: Alpha projects average about 14 days, while IDO projects are even faster, at only 13 days. Many IDO projects list simultaneously on TGE day.
• Bybit: Alpha projects take about 13 days, with IDO also listing on TGE day.
• Coinbase: Only lists Alpha projects, averaging about 29 days.
• Upbit: Only lists IDO projects, averaging about 31 days.

Bitget and Bybit have a faster rhythm, suitable for quick listings; Coinbase and Upbit have a slower rhythm, needing to align with local compliance and community rhythms.
5.3 Price Discovery Capability of Other CEXs
The following chart shows the average increase in Alpha and IDO projects within 14 days after listing on each CEX:

• Bitget: Alpha projects return 41.8%, IDO projects 29.2%, performing the best.
• Bybit: Alpha projects at -2.3%, IDO projects at 25.2%, showing a preference for IDO.
• Coinbase and Upbit: Sample projects are 6 and 4, respectively, with significant statistical deviation, lacking representativeness.

Bitget and Bybit perform steadily in carrying Binance projects, making them important platforms for project teams to consider when planning TGE routes.
Conclusion
Overall, Binance Alpha and IDO are good pre-channels within Binance:

• Alpha is more like an experimental field, with low entry barriers, suitable for early project exposure;
• IDO has stronger brand endorsement, with higher conversion rates to Futures and Spot.

However, Spot conversion remains scarce: the final promotion ratio for Alpha projects is only about 12%, and for IDO, it is only 24%. Project teams need to manage rhythms well:

• Alpha → Spot average waiting time is about 60 days,
• IDO → Spot is 17 days,
• Futures → Spot is the fastest, taking only 14 days.

Additionally, different platforms' preferences for project FDV also release key signals:

• Spot leans towards large-cap projects with valuations above $500M;
• Alpha mainly accepts early projects with valuations below $200M;
• IDO is mostly concentrated in the $70M--$200M range, suitable for medium-sized projects with clear preparations.

Project teams should choose suitable channels based on their valuation stage to match liquidity expectations and market rhythms.
The insights regarding cryptocurrency listings provided above are for informational reference only and do not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or endorsements of any specific cryptocurrency or trading platform.