Circle Deep Dive: Opportunities and Challenges for Stablecoin Giants

Author: Biteye Core Contributor dddd

Editor: Biteye Core Contributor Denise

Community: @BiteyeCN
In the global digital currency market, stablecoins play an increasingly important role as a bridge connecting traditional finance and the cryptocurrency world. As the second-largest stablecoin by market share, USDC (USD Coin) and its issuer, Circle, have recently attracted significant market attention. Circle's stock price has soared from an IPO price of $31 in early June to nearly $200 (peaking at $298.99). This remarkable stock performance not only reflects the growth trajectory of the stablecoin industry but also reveals the opportunities and challenges faced by this emerging financial instrument. This article will delve into the issuance mechanism, profit model, competitive advantages of USDC, as well as Circle's financial status and investment value.

01. USDC's Issuance Mechanism and Profit Model

Capital Assurance System USDC employs a strict capital assurance mechanism. For every USDC purchased, investors must pay $1 as a reserve. To ensure the safety of investors' funds, USDC implements a separation of ownership and control. Legally, Circle, as the issuer, holds ownership of the USDC reserves and manages these assets in a "trust form." USDC holders enjoy actual control over the reserves through their token holdings, and Circle can only operate the reserves according to user instructions. In terms of custody, USDC reserves are held by Bank of New York Mellon in a dedicated account, ensuring the safety and independence of the funds. Investment management is handled by the globally renowned asset management company BlackRock, primarily investing in its managed money market funds, with U.S. Treasury bonds as the main investment target, generating returns through interest differentials. Risks and Limitations of the Profit Model Although USDC's profit model is relatively stable, it also has significant risks and limitations. Firstly, the income from reserves is entirely determined by BlackRock's money market funds (which mainly invest in short-term government bonds), and Circle lacks active control over this income. According to Circle's 2024 financial report, the interest income from USDC reserves was $1.661 billion, with a total issuance of $60 billion, resulting in an actual annualized yield of 2.77%, while the yield on U.S. six-month Treasury bonds during the same period was 4.2%. This data indicates that the yield of BlackRock's managed money market funds is significantly lower than the returns from direct investments in Treasury bonds, likely due to factors such as management fees, liquidity management requirements (which necessitate holding some cash), and the need for risk diversification in the investment portfolio. Secondly, reserve income is highly sensitive to fluctuations in Treasury bond rates; profits increase when rates rise and decrease when rates fall, making Circle's profitability highly dependent on macroeconomic conditions and changes in monetary policy. The current interest rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve has provided a relatively favorable income environment for Circle, but once a rate-cutting cycle begins, the company's profitability will face significant pressure. More importantly, Circle cannot exclusively enjoy all the income generated by USDC. Due to historical partnerships, Circle must share the investment income from USDC with Coinbase. The specific distribution mechanism is that all USDC income generated within the Coinbase platform belongs to Coinbase, while income generated outside the platform is split 50/50 between the two parties. This arrangement results in Circle actually receiving only 38.5% of the total investment income from USDC, while 61.5% of the income belongs to Coinbase (calculated based on 2024 financial data). Market Competition and Channel Expansion To reduce dependence on Coinbase, Circle is actively exploring new distribution channels. The company has partnered with Binance, paying $60.25 million along with monthly trading incentives in exchange for Binance's support. This strategy has proven effective, as Binance has become the largest USDC trading market globally, accounting for 49% of total trading volume, successfully reducing Coinbase's market share. However, this competitive relationship has also brought new challenges. Coinbase has made USDC the core settlement token on the Base chain, collaborating with Stripe to support USDC on the Base chain, and offering users up to 12% returns for holding USDC in the Coinbase Advance version of the derivatives market to maintain its market position and distribution revenue.

02. Competition Analysis between USDC and USDT

Market Share Comparison In the stablecoin market, USDT still holds a dominant position. As of May 31, 2025, USDT's market capitalization reached $153 billion, accounting for 61.2% of the market; while USDC's market capitalization was $61 billion, accounting for 24.4%. The issuance growth rate of USDT continues to exceed that of USDC, demonstrating its strong position in the market. Competitive Advantages of USDC Although USDC lags behind USDT in market share, it has significant advantages in several areas. Transparency and Audit Advantages: USDC adopts a "100% transparent peg" model, with reserve assets consisting solely of cash (23%) and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds (77%), audited monthly by firms such as Grant Thornton and publicly reported. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the reserve size reached $43 billion. This transparency has led institutions like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs to choose USDC as a cross-border settlement tool, with institutional holdings reaching 38% in 2024. In contrast, USDT has faced scrutiny due to reserve transparency issues and was embroiled in controversy from 2017 to 2019, ultimately settling for $41 million. Although USDT has improved its reserve structure post-2024, its "self-attestation" model still suffers from insufficient transparency. Regulatory Compliance: USDC holds a New York BitLicense, EU MiCA license, and Japanese FSA certification, becoming the first globally recognized stablecoin permitted to circulate in Japan. By participating in the U.S. GENIUS Act legislation, USDC is poised to become a "benchmark" under the regulatory framework, successfully attracting banks like JPMorgan and Citibank to join its payment network in 2024. USDT, on the other hand, adopts a "gray area" strategy, with its headquarters in Hong Kong and registered in the British Virgin Islands, placing its operations in a regulatory gray zone. The EU MiCA legislation has excluded USDT from the compliance list, causing its market share in the EU to plummet from 12% at the beginning of 2024 to 5%. Investor Trust: During the Silicon Valley Bank incident in 2023, USDC briefly fell to $0.87, but after Circle publicly proved its reserves the next day, the price rebounded to $0.99 within 48 hours, demonstrating the market repair capability of its compliance model. BlackRock only accepts USDC as collateral in its on-chain fund products, reflecting institutional trust in it. Traditional Financial Penetration: USDC has partnered with SWIFT to develop a "Digital Dollar Payment Gateway," connecting 150 international banks in 2024, aiming to become the "blockchain version of SWIFT" for corporate cross-border settlements. Impact of Regulatory Policies The introduction of the "2025 U.S. Stablecoin Innovation and Establishment Act" (GENIUS Act) may reshape the stablecoin market landscape. As the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S., this act could make USDC the only globally compliant stablecoin, attracting more institutions to include it in their asset management products. For USDT, if the act requires stablecoin issuers to be federally chartered banks, USDT's offshore registration may prohibit it from operating in the U.S., potentially losing 20% of its market share.

03. Financial Analysis of Circle

Profitability Analysis Circle's financial situation presents some contradictory characteristics. In terms of profitability, the company's gross margin is 24.00%, significantly lower than the industry median of 50.18% (with "industry" referring to banking and fintech companies like PayPal, Visa, Stripe, etc.), primarily because revenue comes from BlackRock-managed money funds, with yields limited by U.S. Treasury bond rates, lacking pricing power, and incurring channel fees. However, Circle's EBITDA margin is 11.43%, slightly above the industry median of 10.43%, indicating good operational efficiency. More notably, the company's net profit margin reaches 9.09%, far exceeding the industry median of 3.57%, reflecting high efficiency in managing operational costs. Low Asset Utilization Circle performs poorly in asset utilization. The company's asset turnover ratio is only 0.05, far below the industry median of 0.59, meaning that every $1 of assets generates only $0.05 in revenue. The total asset return rate (ROA) is 0.28%, also well below the industry median of 2.05%. The fundamental reason for this situation is that Circle invests a large amount of funds in Treasury bonds, which, while stable, yield low returns, leading to low asset utilization efficiency. However, as long as Circle can retain more funds, the total profit generated will still be considerable. Cash Flow Situation Circle demonstrates excellent cash flow management, with operating cash flow reaching $324 million, far exceeding the industry median of $113.92 million. This is mainly due to the regulatory requirements of the stablecoin business, which necessitate maintaining high cash reserves. Growth Prospects and Concerns Circle's revenue growth is strong, with a growth rate of 15.57%, 2.6 times the industry median of 5.95%. However, the company has seen a significant deterioration in profit growth. EBITDA growth is -31.75%, EBIT growth is -32.57%, and earnings per share growth is -61.90%, creating a situation of "increased revenue without increased profit." This situation is primarily due to a substantial increase in costs during the company's expansion. Distribution and trading costs have risen by 71.3%, and marketing expenses have reached $3.9 million, with salary expenses increasing by 23.7% year-on-year.

04. Valuation Analysis and Investment Perspective

Current Valuation Level Circle's price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-sales ratio, price-to-cash flow ratio, and price-to-book ratio are all higher than the industry median, reflecting investors' extremely high expectations for the company's future performance. To support these high expectations, Circle needs to achieve strong growth in profitability, sales, and discretionary cash flow to absorb the current high valuation. Notably, Circle's future growth momentum may primarily come from product diversification, especially the rapid expansion of the EURC euro stablecoin in the European market and breakthroughs in the RWA tokenization product USYC in the digitalization of physical assets. Equity Structure Analysis Circle's equity structure is not healthy. Institutional investors hold only 10% of the shares, while Coinbase's institutional investors hold 30%. The proportion of shares held by the company's executives is 7.4%, which is relatively low. Retail and other investors hold 37%, more than both institutional and executive holdings. The IPO pricing range given by JPMorgan, Citibank, and Goldman Sachs is $27-28, reflecting insufficient confidence from institutions in Circle. Investment Logic Analysis Bullish Logic:
Stablecoins address inherent pain points in traditional fiat currency trading systems, and the market is in an expansion phase.
USDC has a significant compliance first-mover advantage in the stablecoin market.
It is gradually reducing dependence on Coinbase for distribution, potentially gaining a larger share of investment dividends in the future.
The GENIUS Act may force major competitor USDT to exit the U.S. market. Bearish Logic:
Valuation is disconnected from fundamentals, with persistent profit declines creating a significant contradiction with high valuations.
Low asset return rates make it difficult to support long-term value growth.
Over 60% of USDC investment income belongs to Coinbase, and Circle cannot obtain the full income (based on 2024 financial data).
The low proportion of institutional investor holdings indicates an unhealthy equity structure.

05. Conclusion and Outlook

Circle exhibits characteristics of "high market expectations, rapid growth, and high valuation." On one hand, the company's stock price has increased by over 540% since its IPO, reflecting market recognition of its advantages in regulatory compliance and market share expansion. As the most transparent stablecoin, USDC enjoys a high reputation among institutional investors, laying a solid competitive foundation for the company. On the other hand, the company faces challenges such as limited profitability, low asset utilization, and the need to digest high valuations. In the short term, the significant rise in Circle's stock price has fully reflected the market's optimistic expectations, and investors need to pay attention to the alignment between valuation and fundamentals. In the long term, whether Circle can achieve breakthroughs through product diversification will be key. The expansion of the EURC euro stablecoin in the European market, the innovative application of the RWA tokenization product USYC, and the gradual reduction of reliance on Coinbase for revenue sharing are all expected to bring new growth momentum to the company. With the advancement of regulatory policies such as the GENIUS Act and the continued development of the stablecoin market, USDC's compliance first-mover advantage may translate into larger market share and profitability. When evaluating Circle, investors need to balance its innovative potential with the current valuation level, paying attention to whether the company can prove that the high expectations set by the market are reasonable through diversification strategies and improved operational efficiency.