3.3 trillion tax cuts, 5 trillion debt ceiling, Musk is angry: Analyzing Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act"

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

$3.3 trillion in tax cuts, $1.13 trillion in spending cuts, 1,118 pages of bill text… A super bill known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025" (abbreviated as OBBBA) is reshaping the economic landscape of the United States, while also sparking new disputes between the two parties, even causing Musk to be "furious."

On July 1, Musk posted on social media platform X, stating that if the current "crazy spending bill" (the "One Big Beautiful Bill") is passed, he will establish the "America Party" the next day to protest against the bill.

As a hallmark policy of Trump's second term, this bill is considered "comprehensive," carrying the ambitions of the Republican Party while igniting intense social controversy.

This article will delve into the core content of the "One Big Beautiful Bill," the discussions it has sparked, and its potential impact on the cryptocurrency industry, exploring the full scope of this legislative storm.

The Big Bill

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" is a massive tax and spending bill promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump in 2025, covering six major areas: tax reform, healthcare reform, immigration policy, defense budget, energy policy, and education and welfare reform.

As a landmark legislation in Trump's second term, it aims to stimulate the economy through large-scale tax cuts, increased spending, and policy adjustments, while addressing issues related to finance, immigration, and national security.

The bill text spans 1,118 pages and contains 237,327 words, involving multiple complex provisions. During the Senate's review of the bill, reading the entire text word for word took 16 hours. According to a summary reported by BBC on June 28, the core content of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" includes the following nine aspects:

According to estimates from the Tax Foundation, the "One Big Beautiful Bill" is expected to reduce federal tax revenue by approximately $3.3 trillion (dynamic estimate) through tax cuts between 2025 and 2034, while increasing defense spending by about $150 billion, primarily for missile defense, ammunition, and shipbuilding; at the same time, the bill will also significantly cut spending by about $1.13 trillion, including an $800 billion reduction in Medicaid and $330 billion saved from reforms to student loan programs.

Economically, the bill is projected to increase long-term GDP growth by 0.6%, but capital stock and pre-tax wages are expected to decrease by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, with approximately 794,000 full-time jobs added. Ultimately, the bill is expected to increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion between 2025 and 2034, with long-term fiscal sustainability risks potentially arising from high interest rates and crowding out of private investment.

Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that if the bill is implemented in its House version, it will increase U.S. debt by $2.4 trillion, with the purchasing power of the bottom 10% of households decreasing by 4% between 2026 and 2034, while the purchasing power of the top 10% of households increases by nearly 3%, sparking controversy over "robbing the poor to pay the rich."

But the disputes do not stop there.

The Big Dispute

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" was first announced by the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee on May 12, 2025, and narrowly passed in the House on May 22 with a vote of 215 to 214. It then passed a procedural vote in the Senate on June 28 with a vote of 51 to 49, entering the formal review stage, and is expected to be signed into law by Trump before the July 4 Independence Day holiday. Due to its massive scale, complex content, and far-reaching implications, it has become the focal point of American politics and public opinion, sparking widespread controversy and intense discussion.

Proponents of the bill view it as one of the core agendas of the Trump administration. Supporters believe that through tax cuts and increased defense spending, the bill will stimulate economic growth and enhance national security, especially as tough immigration and border policies have garnered support from some voters.

However, there are clear divisions within the Republican Party, with some hardliners calling for further cuts to social welfare spending, while moderates hope to preserve programs like Medicaid, fearing that the bill may lead to increased deficits and negatively impact low-income groups.

In both votes on May 22 and June 28, the bill passed by a narrow margin, reflecting the division of opinions within the party.

Beyond intra-party divisions, more widely known is the strong opposition from Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla and former head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Based on this bill, Musk's public feud with President Trump is seen as a landmark event marking their open break. Since June 3, he has referred to it as "massive, absurd, and extremely disgusting," and after the most recent procedural vote on June 28, he firmly believes it is a "political suicide" for the Republican Party.

Musk criticized the bill for leading to a significant increase in the budget deficit, projecting that the deficit will increase by $600 billion in the next fiscal year and could accumulate to $2.5 trillion over the next decade, which contradicts the Trump administration's earlier claims of reducing government spending.

Additionally, the provision in the bill to gradually eliminate electric vehicle tax credits could adversely affect Tesla, further exacerbating Musk's dissatisfaction. He also proposed transferring the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) air traffic control system to be operated by his "Starlink," but this proposal was not adopted, leading to further controversy. Musk even threatened to fund Republican challengers opposing the bill, highlighting his differences with Trump.

The Democratic Party unanimously opposes the bill, arguing that it reduces medical and welfare support for low-income groups to provide tax cuts for the wealthy, a typical case of "robbing the poor to pay the rich." Senate Democratic leader Schumer demanded a word-for-word reading of the bill to delay the vote, demonstrating a strong resistance. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman also criticized the bill as an unprecedented case of robbing the poor to pay the rich, pointing out that its combination with Trump's tariff policies will further harm the interests of the bottom 80% of households.

Public and media reactions have been polarized.

Supporters believe the bill fulfills Trump's campaign promises, such as tax cuts and tough immigration policies, while opponents worry that it may exacerbate social inequality and debt burdens. Some users have also raised concerns about potential issues related to digital identity and big data surveillance that may arise after the bill's passage, sparking worries about privacy protection.

From an international perspective, foreign investors hold a cautiously optimistic view of the bill, believing that its stimulus measures may offset the negative impact of tariff policies on GDP by about 1% to some extent. However, the bill's Clause 899, "Implementing Remedies for Unfair Foreign Taxation," involves retaliatory taxes, raising concerns about foreign investment motivations and the stability of the dollar.

Overall, the passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" has not only sparked widespread political and social controversy within the United States but has also had profound implications for the international economic environment and investment confidence. Although the White House issued a myths vs. facts article addressing most of the current controversies, the future implementation effects remain to be seen.

What About Crypto?

On the surface, the currently well-known provisions of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" may weaken federal court powers, severely impact the healthcare system, increase debt burdens, intensify immigration enforcement, restrict foreign investment, worsen air pollution, and raise defense budgets. Although the impacts are broad, they seem unrelated to cryptocurrency.

However, the reality may not be so. The passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA) is likely to have far-reaching effects on the cryptocurrency and financial industries.

The 2024 Republican Party platform in the United States has already explicitly included provisions supporting cryptocurrencies, opposing excessive regulation, and advocating for citizens' rights to self-manage digital assets, reflecting a positive government attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry. At the same time, the government's executive order establishing a "strategic Bitcoin reserve" incorporates Bitcoin into national strategic reserve assets, marking a fundamental elevation of Bitcoin's status.

The bill is expected to lead to an additional deficit of about $5 trillion for the U.S. government, and such a scale of fiscal expansion may undermine market confidence in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds. The trend of foreign investors reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds has become structural, and after capital outflows, funds may flow into Asian stock markets, gold, and Bitcoin (BTC), further enhancing Bitcoin's status as a global store of value, especially in the context of Bitcoin being included in U.S. strategic reserve assets.

At the same time, the tax cut policies and fiscal stimulus measures in the bill create a more favorable macro environment for crypto assets. The preferential capital gains tax policy encourages investors to hold digital assets for the long term, injecting long-term funds into the cryptocurrency market and further solidifying the U.S. position as a global cryptocurrency hub.

On June 11, 2025, Cahill released an analysis report on the upcoming cryptocurrency asset legislative amendment. The report states: this "is expected to be proposed by Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis," and the "yet-to-be-publicized digital asset legislative proposal" is "planned to be included as an amendment to the One Big Beautiful Bill."

This bill involves specific provisions for subfields such as mining, staking, airdrops, and cross-border transactions, as well as the formulation of inclusive policies regarding a $600 minimum threshold and taxation for foreign investors, reflecting a cautious attitude from regulators in balancing industry development and tax management.

Market dynamics show that since May, exchanges like Coinbase have seen outflows of over 100,000 BTC, and the continued accumulation by whales indicates that market sentiment towards Bitcoin remains strongly bullish.

Whether it is the trade-off between tax cuts and deficits, the hard turn in immigration policy, or the potential impacts on cryptocurrency and financial markets, all will continue to shape the economic and social landscape of the United States in the coming years.

The big is evident, the wait for division remains.