Federal Reserve June meeting minutes focus: The wait-and-see period ends in summer, and a rate cut may occur in September

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, the key points of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are as follows:

1. How likely is a rate cut in July: How much support will Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump 1.0, receive? Both have indicated they will consider a rate cut at the July meeting, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be temporary.
2. The wait-and-see period ends in summer, with a possible rate cut in September: The meeting minutes may suggest that "the trajectory of interest rates will depend on the data released in June, July, and August," and the "wait-and-see" period may end by late summer. The minutes may indicate that the committee expects to obtain the necessary data for a rate cut decision before the end of summer. If conditions meet expectations, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September.
3. Lowering the threshold for rate cuts: The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes may read more dovishly. At the June meeting, Powell leaned towards using neutral language, but the minutes may better reflect what Powell did not explicitly state: the threshold for rate cuts is decreasing.
4. Clues of internal disagreement: Among the 19 officials in June, 7 believed that no rate cuts were needed this year, 2 expected one rate cut, 8 believed two rate cuts were necessary, and 2 anticipated three rate cuts. Analysts will look for clues that led to this disagreement. What supports the views of the 7 Federal Reserve officials who believe there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025?
5. Concerns about the dual mandate: Previously, the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts indicated that the pace of price increases would accelerate for the remainder of this year, but in 2026, even if rates are expected to decline, the pace of price increases will again decrease. Additionally, there is concern about whether there are serious worries regarding the strength of the labor market.