The market has never lacked opportunities: three execution aspects of seizing wealth opportunities

Source: Talking about Li, Talking about the Outside

Last week, due to disappointing U.S. non-farm data (not only was the July job growth below expectations, but the data for May and June was also significantly revised down), the U.S. announced a new round of import tariffs (the new tariffs will officially take effect on August 7, with rates as high as 50% for some countries), and geopolitical shocks (last week, Trump made nuclear submarine threat remarks against Russia during an interview), the crypto market (including the stock market) experienced another phase of volatility. BTC dropped from $120,000 to around $112,000, while ETH fell from $3,900 to around $3,300.

In terms of spot ETF inflows and outflows, after seven weeks of net inflows, BTC ETF began to show net outflows last week, with a net outflow of $643 million. As shown in the figure below. Zoom image will be displayed

Although macro factors have led to new market volatility and some ETF funds (buyers) have started to become cautious again, the continuous buying behavior of major institutions/whales seems to indicate that their strategic reserve interest in BTC and ETH has not changed significantly, which has somewhat alleviated the pressure of market fluctuations.

Starting this week (August 4), the market has shown some signs of rebound. As of the writing of this article, BTC has maintained around $114,000, and ETH has remained around $3,500, as shown in the figure below. Zoom image will be displayed

The market structure has undergone a noticeable change; the once wild and free-spirited crypto market, advocating community leadership, has now transformed into a digital game controlled by governments, institutional investors (including whales), and industry insiders. Zoom image will be displayed

1. The market has never lacked opportunities

In the previous article (July 30), we discussed the upcoming market opportunities from an institutional perspective. Whether the market will have better rebound performance in the future may depend on several factors, including:

• Upcoming economic data released by the U.S. (such as non-farm payrolls, inflation, etc.)

• Expectations for when the Federal Reserve's policy will shift

• Whether trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions can further ease

• The inflow and outflow of market funds (such as ETF fund movements, institutional accumulation, etc.)

Market prices are always changing, but often, people's emotions seem to be repeating themselves. Whenever prices rise rapidly, most people believe a bull market has arrived; whenever prices plummet, most people think everything is over.

Different perspectives lead to different views or understandings, and different views or understandings can bring about different results or outcomes. Compared to the emotional changes of people (retail investors within a certain range), I prefer to focus on the flow of capital (funds).

For example, many people still view the crypto industry pessimistically, believing it is all speculation and hot air, yet significant funds continue to flow into the sector. From a financing perspective, according to public data, there were approximately 131 rounds of financing in the crypto sector in the past month (July), with a total financing scale reaching $3.66 billion, as shown in the figure below. Zoom image will be displayed

Since the beginning of this year (YTD), venture capital in the crypto sector has reached $21.1 billion, exceeding the total scale of $13.8 billion for the entire year of 2024.

It is evident that while there are still some issues in this field, it is maturing. If you are fortunate enough to have entered this field but maintain a relatively negative outlook, you may continue to miss out on new opportunities within it.

Speaking of opportunities, this seems to be related to each person's investment preferences; opportunities vary from person to person.

Recently, due to some health issues, I have reduced my time sitting and looking at screens, spending most of my days lying down and listening to "Tomb Raiding Notes" on Himalaya. I found that this is somewhat similar to the tomb raiding schools mentioned in the program. The goal of tomb raiders is to dig up ghostly treasures for wealth, but the methods and practices differ. The so-called "Mogold," "Fakui," "Moving Mountains," and "Unloading Ridges" schools do not have any specific lineage; they are simply based on technical schools, meaning different factions only use the techniques and rules of this craft.

For example, practitioners of the Fakui school like to wear a copper seal. If a farmer also wants to get rich by digging up ghostly treasures and thinks the copper seal of the Fakui Heavenly Officer looks cool, he can wear one and follow the rules of the Fakui school while tomb raiding. This farmer can be considered part of the Fakui school. If one day this farmer throws away the copper seal and uses talismans instead, burning a few circles of talismans around the tomb before acting, he can then claim to be part of the Moving Mountains school.

In the crypto market, there are also different ways and practices to make money. For example, hoarders only insist on holding their favored coins (like BTC, ETH), while technical traders prefer to look for swing opportunities using various K-line indicators like RSI and MACD. Others may blindly follow certain KOLs to gamble on meme coins and contracts… and so on.

The crypto market has developed to the point where it is no longer an independent niche market or an isolated rebellious asset class. The most intuitive feeling is that the macro economy has become more important than ever, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and cuts, U.S. economic data (non-farm payrolls, inflation, etc.), changes in the global situation, and the continued participation of institutions… all of these are quietly transferring wealth in new ways.

All of this seems so unfamiliar, yet feels so familiar.

In this major transformation, for ordinary retail investors, making money will continue to become increasingly difficult, but opportunities still exist. The premise is that we should think and learn to prioritize survival (not to be easily eliminated by the market) and profit second.

What has been lost in the past should not be regretted, and the temporary losses of the present should not be overly entangled. As long as we continue to seize future opportunities, the real game has just begun. If you are completely washed off the table now, then one day in the future, when you look back, this will continue to be one of your biggest regrets.

2. Three Execution Levels for Seizing Opportunities

Many people directly equate successful trading with making more money. While making more money is certainly commendable, focusing solely on this outcome does not necessarily allow one to seize successful opportunities; rather, one should pay attention to thinking and forming the driving internal causes that achieve this result.

So how should we understand these driving internal causes?

Next, we will outline three execution levels for everyone:

1) The first level is maintaining focus + execution power

If you see someone making money by buying a certain coin, you rush in without hesitation. If you notice a certain topic gaining popularity, you participate without thinking. You might be thinking about how to earn as much as XX or even become rich overnight, but you overlook the process others went through to achieve certain results.

The term "focus" is something we often mention in previous articles, while execution power mainly refers to your actions. The two should complement each other. For example, you can select 1-3 subfields that interest you the most to keep an eye on, and set daily or weekly learning or research plans to continuously optimize your execution strategy, rather than just spending all your time watching price changes on K-lines or wallet balances.

Profit is merely a result; focus and execution are the processes that lead to results. Many people often fantasize or focus on how much money they hope to make, while neglecting how they can specifically earn that money. This can easily lead to a state of inner impatience, lack of conviction, or losing direction.

In short, true long-term stable returns do not come from simple mindless imitation or following, but from your own efficient focus and disciplined execution. To put it simply, seizing successful opportunities is not about fantasizing but about consistently and diligently doing the right things in your area of focus every day.

2) The second level is understanding and mastering consistency

Consistency mainly refers to your ability to remain rational and make reasonable decisions in various environments (such as volatile markets). A simple example is the concept of position management we often mention in previous articles, which means that regardless of how the market changes, you can make the most suitable choices based on your position plan, rather than blindly chasing one-time returns (like pursuing a 100-fold surge opportunity).

Whether in investment or entrepreneurship, what truly differentiates people is not a one-time lucky success or windfall, but maintaining a long-term stable high win rate. Among the many seasoned investors I know, those who are more successful in investing are less likely to be tempted by sudden high-return opportunities; instead, they maintain consistency and value stable and replicable rhythms and strategies.

Simply put, consistency is the foundation for generating compound interest. We do not need to deliberately seek one-time windfalls; as long as we do not make serious mistakes or losses, and do not get easily eliminated by the market, we can achieve long-term continuous growth.

3) The third level is building your own advantages

In previous articles, we have often mentioned that everyone is an independent individual, with significant differences in background, experience, and risk tolerance, as well as different thinking models, knowledge backgrounds, perspectives, and interests.

We can improve our methodologies by learning from others' strengths or perspectives, but we should not easily copy others' results, as the only thing a person can truly control is their own ability boundaries and cognitive advantages.

Perhaps you see or hear about others easily making 100 times or even 1000 times returns by playing meme coins or meme tokens, but that does not mean you can seize those opportunities. Instead of spending a lot of time doing useless work asking others for the secrets to getting rich, it is better to calm down, think, and build your own advantages.

So how can you quickly build your own advantages?

This is not difficult in terms of thinking; we just need to "deconstruct" based on our long-term goals. Here are two specific examples:

For instance, I used to enjoy researching various on-chain data, so I established a "data channel" for myself, collecting, categorizing, and organizing over 300 data-related websites/tools using EXCEL (some of the tools I consider commonly used have already been synced to the Talking about Li, Talking about the Outside Notion). When you read articles from Talking about Li, Talking about the Outside, you often see me referencing various dimensions of data or screenshots; these are all the result of my organized data channels. Similarly, I will further break down independent data summaries for specific purposes, such as the more than 40 BTC indicators included in the "Bitcoin Indicator Template" I shared in previous articles, which is one of my important references for long-term Bitcoin investment.

Another example is that I previously wrote some project research articles (during 2022-2023). To better understand or research projects, I designed a "project research template" for myself (this template has also been synced to the Talking about Li, Talking about the Outside Notion), summarizing and categorizing the aspects that need attention using EXCEL. As long as I follow the template to find the corresponding project information and score it, I can quickly understand a project's potential by focusing on the following points:

• The project's alignment with market narratives and whether it has a high level of recognition (for example, having high visibility on social media)

• The project's product-market fit (PMF) and changes in its core growth indicators (Mindshare)

• Whether the project has good token economics (for example, unlocking conditions, token utility, and whether community interests are prioritized in distribution)

Similarly, we can establish our own information channels, decision-making systems, data models, circles, etc., based on our goals and needs.

In summary, if we hope to achieve long-term success, it is not simply about relying on a few strokes of luck, but often about the continuous establishment and accumulation of our own advantages. One or a few successes may allow you to make quick money, but only by building your own advantages can you maintain steady progress and navigate through bull and bear cycles. Especially in the investment market, what we see or what others want you to see as so-called "shortcuts to success" are often traps for you. In the long run, the advantages you build for yourself are your strongest and most beneficial guarantees for opportunity.

What we should pursue is not to "seize opportunities" every time, but to find ways to become the person who "always has opportunities," maintaining patience and waiting for the right opportunities to come, without fearing to miss out.

That's all for today. The images/data referenced in the text have been added to the Talking about Li, Talking about the Outside Notion. The above content is merely personal views and analyses for learning and communication purposes and does not constitute any investment advice.