LDO surged 64% last week, is the value of the staking leader returning?

2025-08-11 17:12:58

Collection

At the macro level, the SEC has clarified that liquidity staking does not involve securities; at the micro level, the LDO buyback plan is finally going to be put on the table.

Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

The leading player in the liquid staking sector, Lido (LDO), has recently made a strong comeback. According to OKX market data, as of 10:00 AM Beijing time on August 11, LDO is priced at 1.52 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 14.21%, and a staggering 64.5% rise over the past week.

As the largest liquid staking protocol in the Ethereum ecosystem, Lido has long dominated the total value locked (TVL) rankings in the Ethereum ecosystem and even across the entire on-chain ecosystem. Although it has recently been surpassed by Aave, which has rapidly grown due to the borrowing of USDe-based assets, Lido remains one of the most influential protocols in the Ethereum ecosystem.

The recent rise of LDO can generally be attributed to both macro and micro factors.

Macro: Regulatory Clarity and Progress on Staking ETFs

First, on the macro level, on August 6, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially released a statement titled "Statement on Certain Liquid Staking Activities," which clearly states: "Liquid staking activities related to protocol staking do not involve the issuance and sale of securities unless the deposited crypto assets are part of an investment contract or subject to an investment contract." Participants in liquid staking activities are not required to register transactions with the SEC under the Securities Act, nor do they need to comply with the registration exemption provisions of the Securities Act regarding these liquid staking activities.

In June 2024, when Gary Gensler was still at the helm of the SEC, the agency had accused Lido and Rocket Pool of being securities. On that day, LDO fell over 10% due to this negative news and remained in a downturn for a considerable period. Just a year later, the new SEC's statement clarified that its business model does not involve securities, effectively easing regulatory constraints for the subsequent operation and development of such projects.

In addition to the shift in regulatory stance, another key development surrounding the staking sector is that BlackRock has submitted an application to the SEC to introduce a staking mechanism in its spot Ethereum ETF. Although this application is still under review, given the SEC's attitude, it is expected to be approved without much difficulty. The market generally anticipates that with the approval of staking ETFs, Lido, which currently accounts for nearly 25% of Ethereum staking shares, is likely to receive a boost in business and attract funds.

Micro: LDO Buyback Plan Finally on the Table

Compared to the indirect effects of macro factors, recent discussions about the LDO buyback plan may be the direct factor influencing the price movement in the short term.

On August 7, Lido community member Kuzmich submitted a draft regarding the "LDO Buyback Plan" draft on the governance forum. The draft mentions that the Lido treasury currently holds liquidity assets worth $145 million (17 million USDC, 11.9 million USDT, 1.22 million DAI, 28,640 stETH), but these assets are not generating revenue for the protocol.

The draft suggests that Lido should dynamically execute LDO buybacks based on treasury balances to improve the utilization of protocol funds, boost LDO prices, and restore market confidence in LDO's value. Specifically, the draft proposes that under the current treasury reserve scale, 70% of liquidity assets be used for regular LDO buybacks, while 30% be retained in the treasury for operational and strategic needs; when treasury liquidity assets fall to between $50 million and $85 million, the ratio will adjust to 50% buyback / 50% retention; when treasury liquidity assets fall below $50 million, the ratio will adjust to 0% buyback / 100% retention (pausing buybacks until the recovery threshold is met).

According to the planning on the Lido governance forum, if all goes smoothly, the draft will collect community feedback from August 7 to 14; then it will be discussed in the Lido token holders' conference on August 14; subsequently, from August 15 to 24, the proposal will be revised based on feedback; and finally, it will be submitted for a Snapshot vote on August 25.

Although there are some opposing voices within the community forum, most users' concerns focus on the specific details of the plan, rather than a few who insist that "buybacks are just a short-term game." For example, there is no clear indication of whether the tokens bought back will be burned, and the methods for initiating and executing the buybacks remain unclear.

Considering that the draft is still in its early stages, it is expected that further modifications will be made after the conference discussions. Additionally, given the recent strong upward movement in LDO prices, there is optimism that this draft or other buyback plans derived from it will receive substantial community support.

ETH's "Prince," Is It Finally Time for Value Discovery?

As a recognized ETH Beta, LDO's performance over a long period has been quite unsatisfactory.

While AAVE surged rapidly above $300 due to buybacks; ENA skyrocketed with its business flywheel and treasury plans; and PENDLE opened new imaginative spaces with Boros, LDO has long remained in a relatively weak state. Even though the expectation for "staking ETFs" has been voiced for a long time, it has not managed to drive LDO's price performance over a relatively long period.

Under the dual stimulation of current macro and micro factors, LDO finally shows some signs of trend reversal. Could this be the beginning of price discovery for this ETH "prince"? It may be too early to make a judgment now, but there is certainly some hope.