The rise in the U.S. stock market masks an economic slowdown, with a 35% probability of recession in the future

ChainCatcher news, according to Jinshi reports, Pinghao pointed out in a report that there is a divergence between the U.S. stock market and the overall economic performance. Although the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 10% year-to-date, the process has been bumpy, with a pullback of about 20% in April. The report shows that the annualized growth rate of real consumer spending in the first half of 2025 is 1%, and the growth rate of real GDP continues to slow down. A Bloomberg survey indicates that the average probability of a U.S. economic recession in the next year is 35%.