In 2 days, the price surged nearly 10 times. Is the Pokémon card trading a real demand or a false sentiment?

2025-09-04 12:15:19

Collection

Is the rise of $CARDS due to its own strength, or is it thanks to the car head?

In the cryptocurrency circle, while players are concerned about Trump's health controversies and waiting for potential gaming opportunities, a coin called $CARDS has attracted attention with its performance, rising nearly 10 times since September 2, with a market cap once exceeding $400 million.

$CARDS is the token of Collector Crypt, a physical Pokémon card trading platform on Solana. Collector Crypt announced the completion of its seed round financing in February 2023, with the specific amount undisclosed, and was backed by GSR, Big Brain Holdings, FunFair Ventures, Genesis Block Ventures, Master Ventures Investment Management, StarLaunch, and Telos.

Although the seed round financing was completed two and a half years ago, the presale of $CARDS only started last week. 5% of the total token supply (100 million $CARDS) was allocated for the presale, which ultimately raised 16,500 SOL (approximately $3.5 million), with 718 participants in the presale.

Additionally, 2.5% of the 20% of tokens allocated to the community were opened for claim simultaneously with the presale tokens. According to the official tokenomics, if the tokens held by the project team are not counted in the initial circulation (the project team claims there are currently no plans to sell), the current circulating supply of $CARDS is approximately 212 million.

At market value, the tokens unlocked at TGE for the seed round, advisors, and others are currently worth about $1.67 million.

The official stated that there are currently no plans to sell tokens.

In fact, looking at what the project itself is doing, the on-chain trading of Pokémon cards by Collector Crypt is not that novel.

Courtyard.io on Polygon has also been operating for over two years. Last month, Courtyard's monthly sales just set a new high of approximately $78.43 million. Since February of this year, Courtyard's monthly sales have exceeded $40 million.

The rapid development this year may be the reason Courtyard secured significant financing. On July 28, according to Fortune, Courtyard completed a $30 million Series A financing, led by Forerunner Ventures, with existing investors like NEA and Y Combinator participating.

In August 2023, when Courtyard had just attracted the attention of a few NFT players, we reported on Courtyard. At that time, NFT players were already obtaining Pokémon cards through Courtyard and engaging in on-chain collateral lending.

Besides Collector Crypt and Courtyard, other crypto projects doing similar business include Beezie, Drip, Emporium, and phygitals.

However, Collector Crypt is the only one among these projects that has issued a token, giving $CARDS a first-mover advantage. Of course, Collector Crypt itself is quite capable, with a monthly trading volume reaching approximately $44 million last month, not far behind Courtyard.

You may wonder, is there really that much genuine demand for trading Pokémon cards on-chain?

The answer is no. Whether it's Collector Crypt or Courtyard, their actual profitable business is the gambling-style "blind box" draws.

The image above shows Collector Crypt's Pokémon card gacha system. For about $60, there is an 80% chance of drawing a card worth $30 to $60, a 15% chance of drawing a card worth $60 to $110, a 4% chance of drawing a card worth $110 to $250, and a 1% chance of drawing a card worth $250 to $2000.

What if you draw a bad card? No worries, you can sell it back to Collector Crypt at an 85% discount and continue drawing.

Collector Crypt's lottery system was officially launched in January this year, achieving approximately $2 million in sales that month, growing to $12.55 million in March, $22.31 million in May, and reaching $43.89 million last month. In contrast, the trading volume in the Collector Crypt card trading market last month was only about $120,000.

In the bar chart of Collector Crypt's total monthly sales, the share from the card trading market is almost invisible.

Although there is no direct data on lottery revenue, we can get a sense of how profitable the lottery business is from Courtyard's previous interviews. Courtyard mentioned in an interview last month with Fortune that they repurchase lottery cards from customers at 90% of their value and then resell them in new lottery packs to make a profit, with the same card being sold on the platform an average of 8 times per month.

Despite this, it is still difficult to say that the rise of $CARDS is a market-driven "price discovery." Because from the end of the presale until two days ago, the price of $CARDS was sluggish, and participants in the presale even felt like they "lost again."

However, the involvement of "leaders" pow and gake significantly changed the price trend. After they both tweeted support for $CARDS, people began to believe.

Thus, we can summarize $CARDS as follows:

The business narrative is not new, but the revenue is quite strong, making it the absolute leader in this sector on Solana.
The demand is real, but it is not for the trading of Pokémon cards itself, but for the gambling-style demand of "lottery," which is also true for other projects in the same sector.
Other projects in the same sector have not yet issued tokens, so there are currently no competing concepts on the market.
The number of token holders is not large, and the current rise is more due to the "leaders" calling for it.

There are real assets, but after the emotion-driven rise, whether $CARDS can maintain momentum still needs time to test.

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