Author & Editor: Georgia Jansen

1. Bitcoin Market

Bitcoin Price Trends (2025/09/13--2025/09/19)

In the past week, Bitcoin's price movement exhibited a rhythm of "sideways consolidation → pullback and rebound → attempt to break through after the Fed's meeting." The core driving force came from the market's changing expectations regarding Fed policy and the actual 25 basis point rate cut on September 18, along with news of ETF fund flows and improved risk appetite. The main trading range for the week was roughly between $114,400 and $117,910. Key points occurred on September 16, when the price briefly dipped to $114,801 before quickly rebounding; and on September 18, after the Fed announced the rate cut, Bitcoin surged to around the week's high of $117,910.

Sideways Phase (September 13--September 15)

• September 13: High of $116,292.4, low of $115,207.3, closing at $115,924.9

• September 14: High of $116,165.6, low of $115,158.3, closing at $115,314.6

• September 15: High of $116,723.2, low of $114,412.2, closing at $115,362.1

On September 13, the price fluctuated narrowly around the mid-point of $115,000, roughly operating in the range of $115,207 to $116,292, closing near $115,925. On September 14, the fluctuation range further narrowed, with the low of $115,158 supported by buying, while the high near $116,166 encountered resistance. On September 15, the market briefly dipped below the previous range to $114,412 but quickly surged to an intraday high of $116,723, ultimately closing at a level close to the previous two days. Overall, the trading volume during these three days was relatively light, consistent with the typical "wait-and-see" pattern before the FOMC.

Driving Factors Analysis:

1. Policy Wait-and-See and Position Adjustment: With the FOMC meeting approaching, traders generally awaited confirmation of the market consensus expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut. The CME FedWatch tool indicated a rate cut as the baseline scenario, limiting confidence in unilateral operations and prompting the market to maintain a range-bound consolidation.
2. Macroeconomic Background: Although the U.S. inflation data released the previous week showed some divergence, it was not alarming overall, with the "soft landing" narrative continuing to dominate, reducing the urgency to increase positions ahead of the meeting. State Street's weekly macro briefing mentioned that the PPI for the service sector fell to 2.9% year-on-year.
3. ETF Fund Background: ETF fund flows did not form a consistent direction at the beginning of the week, remaining overall neutral but slightly bullish. By September 15, SoSoValue data showed that the net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs that day was approximately $260 million, but the strength was insufficient to immediately break the consolidation range.

Pullback and Rebound (September 16)

On September 16, Bitcoin briefly fell below the support of the previous days to $114,801, as traders reduced positions ahead of the policy event. However, the dip was quickly met with strong buying, and the price rebounded to the mid-point of $116,000, reaching a high of $116,970 that day. Compared to the beginning of the week, the trading volume significantly increased, indicating substantial two-way trading at lower levels.

Driving Factors Analysis:

1. Position Cleanup and Buying on Dips: Ahead of the interest rate decision, some investors took risks off the table, pushing the price down, but this quickly attracted buying on dips. CoinDesk noted that the crypto market lagged behind U.S. stocks that day, consistent with this pattern of falling first and then rallying.
2. ETF Fund Support: Data from September 16 indicated that Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows again, exceeding $290 million that day, continuing the trend of net inflows over several days, providing background support for the rebound.

Pre-Meeting Volatility (September 17)

On September 17, volatility increased, with prices oscillating between $114,783 and $117,284, repeatedly testing the upper and lower bounds of the range. Trading volume remained high, closing back around the mid-point of $116,000, with a neutral market structure but poised for action.

Driving Factors Analysis:

1. Event Risk Dominance: The market had largely digested the expectations of a rate cut, with focus shifting to forward guidance and the dot plot. CoinDesk's Asia briefing stated that traders were monitoring liquidity tests and token unlocks while awaiting the decision, causing prices to oscillate sideways rather than extend trends.
2. Expectation Management: The Fed's forecasts indicated further easing in 2025, but the market still awaited confirmation from Powell's speech. The overall pattern was "rate cuts are priced in, but guidance is uncertain," which is conducive to bottoming.

Post-Meeting Breakthrough Attempt (September 18)

On September 18, after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, risk appetite significantly improved, and Bitcoin broke through the $117,000 mark, reaching a weekly high of around $117,910, closing at $117,277. Trading volume was above the weekly average, indicating fund follow-up driven by the event.

Driving Factors Analysis:

1. Fed's 25 Basis Point Rate Cut: The Fed positioned this as a risk management move, with the backdrop of a softening labor market. Bitcoin quickly surged after the announcement, peaking near $117,900.
2. Global Follow-Through Effect: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority simultaneously lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, further reinforcing the global easing atmosphere, favorable for risk assets.
3. Funds and Sentiment: Although ETF fund flows became cautious after the decision was announced, Bitcoin still moved upward, indicating that the impact of policy catalysts and overall risk appetite improvement outweighed short-term fund hesitance.

Summary

Overall, Bitcoin experienced a week of sideways observation, a brief mid-term dip followed by a rapid rebound, pre-meeting volatility building momentum, and a post-meeting breakthrough attempt. It ultimately operated within the range of $114,400 to $117,910, with the market's focus gradually shifting upward. The decision and improved risk appetite were the dominant factors, while ETF fund flows, despite fluctuations, did not disrupt the overall trend. By the weekend, the market leaned bullish.

2. Market Dynamics and Macroeconomic Background

Capital Flows

ETF Fund Dynamics

This week, Bitcoin spot ETFs maintained a net inflow pattern, with 4 out of 5 trading days showing net inflows and 1 day showing a slight net outflow. According to Farside Investors' Bitcoin ETF fund flow tracker, the total net inflow over the five days was approximately $1.186 billion. The trend indicates that institutional allocation demand remained stable around the interest rate decision week, only briefly slowing in the mid-term:

September 15: +$259.9 million

September 16: +$292.3 million

September 17: -$51.3 million

September 18: +$42.5 million

ETF Fund Inflow/Outflow Data Chart

Supported by four days of net inflows and one relatively small net outflow, spot ETFs continued to serve as the primary channel for institutions and traditional investors to allocate Bitcoin. The significant net inflow from September 12 to 16 indicated that there was still sustained buying interest around the $115,000 range; while the slight net outflow on September 17 likely reflected investors' risk hedging ahead of the Fed's decision rather than a trend reversal. The return to net inflows on September 18 indicated that demand remained robust after the policy was implemented, keeping the overall capital flow positive for the week.

Miner Inflows Hit Historical Peaks

On September 13, CryptoOnchain pointed out that the realized Bitcoin miner inflow to trading platforms reached a historical peak of $18.7 billion, marking the largest scale of miner coin transfers ever. Possible reasons include:

• Forced Selling: Rising operational costs and difficulty may have pushed some miners into a "surrender" phase;
• Strategic Realization: Cashing out profits at a temporary high to guard against market pullbacks.

This move highlights supply-side pressure, which may limit Bitcoin's short-term upside potential and increase market volatility risk.

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On-Chain Capital Inflows Set New Records

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted that the total on-chain capital inflows for Bitcoin reached $625 billion in the year and a half since 2024, surpassing the cumulative $435 billion from 2009 to 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in capital scale.

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Long-Term Holders Significantly Increase Holdings

On September 17, CryptoQuant data showed that Bitcoin recorded the second-largest single-day increase in 2025: a total of 29,685 BTC (approximately $3.4 billion) flowed into long-term holder addresses through over-the-counter transactions, indicating that large funds are still accumulating on dips.

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Exchange Supply Hits 7-Year Low

On September 18, crypto analyst The DeFi Investor pointed out that Bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges have fallen to a 7-year low, indicating that institutional funds continue to flow into the spot market, concentrating holdings in long-term wallets.

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Technical Indicator Analysis

Relative Strength Index (RSI 14)

According to Bitbo data, as of September 19, 2025, Bitcoin's 14-day RSI was 69.99, with a price of $117,222.79. This level is just below the traditional overbought threshold of 70, indicating that short-term momentum remains strong, and the market is approaching the overbought range but has not yet officially closed above it.

In the past week, the RSI showed an upward trend, ultimately closing near the high close to 70, clearly indicating that as the price approached the weekly high, bullish pressure significantly increased. If the RSI can sustain above 70, it typically confirms an overbought state and increases the probability of short-term consolidation or pullback. Conversely, if the RSI falls back to the 50-55 range while the price remains stable, it indicates a healthy repair of momentum rather than a trend disruption.

Bitcoin 14-Day RSI Data Chart

Moving Average (MA) Analysis

• MA5 (5-Day Moving Average): $116,793

• MA20 (20-Day Moving Average): $113,812

• MA50 (50-Day Moving Average): $116,645

• MA100 (100-Day Moving Average): $112,035

• MA200 (200-Day Moving Average): $105,008

• Current Price (as of September 19, 2025 reference value): $117,222.79

MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200 Data Chart

The reference price of $117,222.79 is above all moving averages (MA5, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200). The short-term moving average combination shows positive performance, with MA5 ($116,793) slightly above MA50 ($116,645), and both are significantly higher than MA20 ($113,812).

This structure indicates that short-term momentum remains strong, and traders view the $116,645-$116,793 range as the first support zone. The mid-term trend is also robust, with MA50 above MA100 ($112,035) and MA200 ($105,008). As long as the price remains above MA200, the long-term trend remains firmly bullish.

If the price can maintain above MA50, the market will remain positively inclined; if the daily price falls below MA5 and MA50, it would indicate a pause in short-term momentum and could potentially retest around MA20 at $113,812.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels: After the pullback in the middle of the week, buying repeatedly defended the $114,500-$116,000 range. On September 16, the price briefly dipped to $114,801 but quickly rebounded; during September 13-15, multiple pullbacks to around $115,200 were supported, confirming sustained buying interest in that range. Subsequently, after the FOMC meeting, the market surged, with around $116,000 forming new support, as the price repeatedly retreated to the $116,000-$116,200 range on September 17-18, showing that previous resistance has turned into short-term support.

Resistance Levels: The first resistance above is at $117,300, where the price encountered resistance on September 17. After the Fed's decision on September 18, the price surged to the weekly high of $117,910 but failed to hold that level, confirming the $117,900-$118,000 range as the main resistance zone for the week. If it can effectively close above $118,000, it would open up space for momentum continuation; if it fails to break through, the market will remain range-bound, with $116,000 as the center and $114,800-$115,200 as the key lower defense line.

Comprehensive Analysis

Overall, this week, Bitcoin's short-term structure still aligns with the pattern of "support gradually rising, resistance gradually tightening," but the top has slightly elevated. Bottom buying remains resilient, with the first defense zone falling in the MA50-MA5 range ($116,645-$116,793), and secondary support being the recent low of $114,800-$115,200. Supply above is concentrated at $117,300 and $117,900-$118,000. The 14-day RSI is at 69.99, indicating strong momentum but nearing overbought territory, with the market in a phase of range convergence; whether this can continue depends more on volume breakthroughs rather than single spikes.

If bulls can maintain above $116,600 and convert $117,300 into daily support, they may aim for $117,900-$118,000, or even a brief breakout. If they can effectively hold above $118,000, it is expected to initiate a new round of increases, while the RSI retreating from the overbought zone to a mid-high level (60-65) would also release space for trend continuation. Conversely, if there are repeated obstacles at $117,900-$118,000 and the RSI remains around 70, a pullback to the MA range ($116,645-$116,793) is likely; only in cases of liquidity deterioration or negative fund flows would a deep retest of $114,800-$115,200 be possible. Overall, the market still leans towards a volatile upward trend, but whether a breakthrough can be confirmed depends on whether trading volume can continue to expand and whether ETF and exchange fund flows continue to absorb profit-taking pressure.

Market Sentiment Analysis

As of September 19, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 52 (neutral range). It was 51 yesterday, 50 last week, and 53 last month, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment month-on-month, but still in a balanced state rather than exuberant.

In the week from September 13 to September 19, the sentiment index on the CMC chart remained stable, still in the neutral range, even as prices tested the upper bounds of the range, not entering the greed zone. This aligns with the technical picture: prices approaching the $117,900-$118,000 resistance zone while the RSI rose to 69.99, but the sentiment index did not spike into greed or extreme greed. In other words, momentum has improved, but market sentiment remains rational.

Looking ahead, if Bitcoin can consistently close above $118,000 on a daily basis, accompanied by increased spot trading volume and continued net inflows into ETFs, the sentiment index is expected to rise to moderate greed (55-60 range). If the breakout is obstructed and the price falls back to the MA50-MA5 range ($116,645-$116,793), the index may retreat to the high 40s to low 50s. Currently, market sentiment remains constructive but restrained, a state that typically favors trend continuation while avoiding short-term peak risks.

Fear & Greed Index Data Image

Macroeconomic Background

Monetary Policy Update: Fed Cuts Rates by 25 Basis Points

The Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, setting the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of last year. The statement mentioned that U.S. economic growth is slowing, job growth is decelerating, inflation has rebounded but "remains at relatively high levels," and explicitly pointed out that the downside risks to the labor market are increasing.

Lower policy rates reduce the funding threshold for risk assets, typically leading to a more accommodative financial environment unless offset by overly hawkish guidance. The tone of this meeting was "cautious easing": the rate cut supported risk appetite, but the Fed avoided committing to a rapid easing path. For Bitcoin, this typically means:

• Interest Rates and Dollar Transmission: If front-end U.S. Treasury yields fall and the dollar weakens, Bitcoin's risk premium improves; conversely, if the "cautious" tone leads to a rebound in yields, even a rate cut may limit Bitcoin's upside potential.

• Liquidity and Fund Flows: Lower financing costs and improved risk sentiment help drive net inflows into spot ETFs and stablecoin "dry powder" funds into Bitcoin. Whether any breakout can sustain depends on whether these fund flows can accelerate again after the FOMC.

• Volatility Path: Since the Fed has clearly stated it will rely on data, future employment and inflation data will directly impact market expectations. If subsequent unemployment claims/NFP data are weak or inflation cools, the likelihood of an additional 25 basis point rate cut increases (some institutions, like Nomura, have predicted more cuts this year), and such expectations have historically supported crypto market performance in the fourth quarter.

Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference Transcript Chart

U.S. Labor Market Data: Initial Jobless Claims Decline, Employment Still Soft

For the week ending September 13, 2025, initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000, reversing the previous week's surge to 264,000, marking the largest single-week decline in nearly four years. The four-week moving average dropped to about 240,000, and the number of continuing claims fell to about 1.92 million. This decline was better than most forecasts, partially offsetting the previous abnormal surge related to suspected fraud in Texas.

Combined with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added in August and a 4.3% unemployment rate, the overall U.S. labor market is still marginally weakening rather than re-accelerating.

The decline in initial claims alleviated recent recession concerns but did not change the trend of a gradually softening labor market. In practical terms, maintaining initial claims in the 200,000 to 250,000 range provides support for the Fed to initiate easing while maintaining a cautious tone.

Inflation Pattern: PPI Weakens, CPI Remains Sticky

• PPI Data: The final demand producer price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in August (July was +0.7%). Among them, the service sector fell 0.2% month-on-month, while goods rose 0.1%. Year-on-year, PPI increased by 2.6%.

• CPI Data: The consumer price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in August (July was +0.2%). Overall CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year; core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 3.1% year-on-year, and 0.3% month-on-month.

Overall, the weakening PPI and the still robust CPI create a "mixed" inflation picture. The wholesale price pressures eased in August, mainly driven by the decline in the service sector, but consumer-side inflation remains strong, with core CPI year-on-year holding at 3.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%.

From an operational perspective, this pattern supports the Fed's initiation of rate cuts but also prompts caution in the pace of future cuts. For the market and Bitcoin, the short-term implication is: if production-side pressures continue to ease and front-end U.S. Treasury yields fall, real rates are likely to decline, benefiting risk assets; however, if CPI does not significantly cool, it may limit the Fed's dovish space.

Gold Prices Retreat from Historical Highs

Spot gold reached a historical high at the beginning of this week, but after the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut and cautious guidance, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened, causing gold prices to retreat from their highs. On Wednesday, spot gold hit a historical high of $3,707.40 per ounce, then fell nearly 1%, closing at $3,658.25. On Thursday, it retreated to $3,655.10, and on Friday hovered around $3,646.23. U.S. December gold futures were roughly reported in the $3,678-$3,690 range over the weekend. SPDR Gold Trust holdings decreased by 0.44%, indicating some capital outflow.

The Fed positioned this rate cut as a preventive measure and avoided signaling aggressive easing, which strengthened the dollar and generally raised U.S. Treasury yields. This combination typically suppresses the upside potential of non-yielding assets (like gold), leading to a consolidation phase after reaching record highs.

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U.S. Treasury Yields Rise After Fed Decision

After the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut and emphasis on "risk management," U.S. Treasury yields rose overall. By Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.10%, and the 2-year yield was around 3.57%, indicating that the market is pricing in a slower, more conditional easing path, with a mild bear steepening of the yield curve.

The moderate rise in yields tends to suppress Bitcoin's upward momentum in the short term, as higher discount rates support the dollar and increase the financing costs of risk assets. This pressure is particularly evident when the 10-year yield remains above 4%.

Dollar Weakness

The dollar index showed weakness at the beginning of the week, dipping to 96.636 on September 16, as the market bet on the Fed moving towards a more dovish easing path. However, after the decision was announced, the dollar rebounded: although the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, it did not signal rapid easing; subsequently, the data showing a decline in initial jobless claims further supported the dollar's strength. On September 18, the dollar index rose to about 97.37, the euro fell to $1.1785, and the yen depreciated to about 147.95 yen per dollar.

This trend exhibited a typical "roller coaster" pattern: earlier expectations of aggressive easing pressured the dollar, but cautious policy guidance and more robust data helped the dollar recover. A stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields typically limit Bitcoin's upside potential near resistance levels, as both tighten the global financial environment and raise the discount rate for risk assets.

Hashrate Changes

In the past seven days, the Bitcoin network exhibited a typical "midweek surge, weekend pullback, then rebound" pattern. Overall hashrate fluctuated mainly between 0.9 EH/s and 1.2 EH/s, indicating that the security budget remains high, even as miners flexibly adjust their operating times based on difficulty adjustment windows.

Starting from September 14, miners gradually resumed operations, and the hashrate curve turned upward, with the network rising back to around 1.0 EH/s, touching the 1.05-1.10 EH/s range multiple times on September 15 and 16. This aligns with miners redeploying capacity ahead of the next difficulty adjustment.

On September 17, the hashrate accelerated rapidly, reaching a weekly high close to 1.2 EH/s. This level typically corresponds to the full online operation of major mining pools and the concentrated release of hydroelectric or low-cost base-load power. This peak indicates that more efficient mining machines are continuously coming online, and cross-regional capacity supply is abundant. By September 18, the hashrate fell back to around 0.86-0.90 EH/s during the day but then rebounded to about 1.1 EH/s. As of September 19 (at the time of writing), based on daily average estimates from Bitinfocharts, the network hashrate was approximately 1.05 EH/s; while real-time estimates from CoinWarz showed the hashrate at about 1.11 EH/s, with network difficulty maintained at around 142-143 T. Such daily fluctuations are common during difficulty adjustment periods or significant changes in electricity prices, typically not having a substantial impact on network security but may squeeze the profit margins of less efficient miners.

Overall, this week, the network maintained a high plateau, first surging to about 1.2 EH/s midweek, then briefly retreating to around 0.9 EH/s before recovering. This pattern indicates that miners are continuously increasing or optimizing new-generation hardware, while short-term electricity factors still drive daily fluctuations. For the network, security remains solid; for miners, the rising average hashrate keeps competitive pressure high, with profit margins increasingly reliant on Bitcoin prices and fee levels.

Weekly Bitcoin Network Hashrate Data

Mining Revenue

As of September 18, miner revenue rose from $46 million on September 12 to $60.57 million, showing a clear upward trend, generally in sync with the strengthening Bitcoin price and stable transaction fees. According to YCharts data, in the past week, Bitcoin miners' daily total revenue (including block rewards and transaction fees) fluctuated between $46 million and $60.57 million, as follows:

• September 12: $46 million

• September 13: $56.62 million

• September 14: $58.59 million

• September 15: $60.08 million

• September 16: $59.24 million

• September 17: $58.80 million

• September 18: $60.57 million

Bitcoin Miners Daily Revenue Data

The daily fluctuations after September 14 were relatively mild, indicating that even with hashrate volatility, the price and fee volatility remained suppressed. The 7-day view from the Hashrate Index shows that hash price (daily dollar earnings per unit hashrate, USD/PH/s/day) remained roughly in the $53-$55 per PH/s/day range for most of September 12-18; on the morning of September 18, it briefly rose to the mid-$54 range, then quickly fell back to about $52 per PH/s/day around 11:00 UTC on September 19. This trend aligns with the scenario of Bitcoin price surging midweek, followed by a momentum pullback against a backdrop of high hashrate and difficulty. Overall, miners' total revenue improved month-on-month, but unit economics remain tight; under conditions where hash prices hover just above the $50 mark and network difficulty approaches historical highs, operators equipped with new-generation mining machines and competitive electricity costs are in a relatively advantageous position, while less efficient mining rigs are more sensitive to Bitcoin price pullbacks.

Hash Price Data

Energy Costs and Mining Efficiency

This week saw significant changes in mining machine efficiency and energy cost pressures, particularly for miners deploying new-generation machines and successfully negotiating favorable electricity contracts. A key event was on September 16, 2025, when BTC Digital announced the deployment of "new-generation mining machines" to enhance energy efficiency in hashrate computation. These devices aim to improve power output per watt, allowing the company to mine more Bitcoin at lower electricity costs. Currently, Bitcoin's mining difficulty stands at 142.34 T (block height 915,379), with a 1.47% increase in mining difficulty over the past 24 hours.

BTC Difficulty Data

Additionally, Macromicro's "Average Bitcoin Mining Cost" data shows that as of September 16, 2025, the average cost to produce one Bitcoin has risen to $115,122, up from about $101,205 two days prior (around September 14). This jump reflects rising energy prices or operational input costs, particularly impacting miners using outdated or inefficient machines. From a cost dynamic perspective, the Mining Cost-to-Price Ratio is approximately 0.98 (based on an average mining cost of $115,122 and a spot price of about $117,200). This indicates that miners are still in a slightly profitable range, but profit buffers are limited; if energy costs rise or Bitcoin prices fall, profitability will quickly be squeezed.

Overall, efficiency is becoming a core differentiating factor in the mining industry. Miners adopting low-power/high-efficiency new models and securing cheap or renewable energy are gaining a cost advantage; meanwhile, operators relying on outdated equipment are facing greater pressure. As energy prices or electricity costs per kilowatt-hour rise, this disadvantage will further amplify.

For Bitcoin itself, this dynamic brings multiple impacts: at current price levels, rising production costs may limit miners' willingness to sell, thereby alleviating downward price pressure; however, on the other hand, if costs rise too quickly without a corresponding increase in Bitcoin prices or fees, the risk of miners surrendering or reducing operating times will also increase, impacting hashrate stability.

BTC Puell Multiple Data

In the past week, Bitcoin's Puell Multiple fluctuated between approximately 1.05 and 1.34, showing a steady increase in miner income relative to its one-year average issuance value, followed by a midweek pullback and subsequent recovery.

• On September 12, this indicator was around 1.21, reflecting low miner income, at the lower end of the neutral range.

• From September 13 to 15, the indicator steadily rose, reaching around 1.34 on September 15, as daily average miner income improved while Bitcoin prices stabilized around $115,000.

• On September 16, the indicator remained near 1.32, indicating that miner profitability levels were still above the benchmark issuance trend.

• On September 17, the indicator sharply dropped to around 1.05, suggesting a temporary weakening of miner income momentum, possibly related to that day's hashrate fluctuations and transaction fee adjustments.

• From September 18 to 19, the indicator rebounded to around 1.31, corresponding with Bitcoin prices stabilizing in the $115,680 to $117,000 range.

Overall, this week's Puell Multiple indicates a certain improvement in miner income relative to the annual average, maintaining above 1.0 for most of the time, indicating that miners are in a profitable state but have not entered an overheated zone (typically above 4). The midweek dip highlights miners' sensitivity to short-term fee and price fluctuations, but the quick recovery indicates that income support is relatively robust. In conclusion, this week's Puell Multiple points to a neutral to slightly positive miner environment, aiding network stability, while if Bitcoin prices continue to rise, there remains room for further improvement.

Policy and Regulatory Dynamics

Coinbase Presses DOJ on State-Level Enforcement Conflicts

On September 15, Coinbase requested the U.S. Department of Justice to limit state-level enforcement actions under "blue sky laws" through federal-level market structure legislation. Achieving national-level priority would reduce the legal fragmentation and compliance burden faced by U.S. trading platforms, helping to improve Bitcoin's liquidity and price transparency.

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U.S. House Financial Services Committee Continues to Pressure for Market Structure Reform

The committee's communications emphasized the urgency of reforming the U.S. crypto market structure in the context of MiCA (EU's crypto asset market regulatory framework). Ongoing legislative attention increases the likelihood of introducing more supportive regulatory rules, thereby improving regulatory transparency and supporting Bitcoin's investability.

SEC Approves Universal Listing Standards for Spot Commodity ETPs (Including Digital Assets)

On September 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) voted to allow NYSE Arca, Nasdaq, and Cboe to use "universal" standards for listing spot commodity ETPs (including crypto assets) without the need for case-by-case submission of 19b-4 filings. The order also approved the listing of Grayscale's Digital Large Cap Fund and options products on the Cboe Bitcoin ETF index.

The significance for Bitcoin is that this reduces the friction for launching new crypto ETPs and broadens distribution channels, potentially further expanding market demand in the long term. (Source: SEC official press release)

UK FCA Proposes Exempting Crypto Companies from Some Old Regulatory Principles

On September 17, Reuters reported that the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) proposed to impose stricter operational risk controls on crypto companies while exempting them from some old regulatory principles (in the context of a major exchange hacking incident). The FCA also opened a public consultation period until November 12.

The significance of this move is that a more targeted UK crypto regulatory framework may reduce compliance friction while enhancing industry resilience; a clearer UK regulatory environment typically promotes institutional investor participation in the Bitcoin market.

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France, Italy, and Austria Call for Strengthened EU-Level Regulation Under MiCA Framework

On September 15, the French Financial Markets Authority (AMF), the Italian Securities and Exchange Commission (Consob), and the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA) jointly called for direct regulation by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) and stricter rules for non-EU platforms.

The potential impact is to reduce "regulatory arbitrage," achieving more consistent regulatory oversight, thereby lowering trading platform risk premiums and supporting the healthy development of the European institutional Bitcoin market.

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France Threatens to Limit Certain Crypto Companies' "Passport" Mechanism

On September 15, French authorities warned that they might attempt to prevent certain licensed companies from operating in France to promote tighter regulatory consistency. This policy friction increases uncertainty around EU market access in the short term but may accelerate the establishment of a unified regulatory framework centered around ESMA in the long run.

Swiss Bank Completes First "Legally Binding" Payment Based on Public Chain

On September 16, a Swiss bank completed its first legally effective payment using a public chain. The increasing acceptance of public chain settlements by official institutions indicates a growing trust in blockchain infrastructure at the institutional level, a trend that may spill over into Bitcoin's market access and custody business.

Mining News

DL Holdings Enters Mining Business, Purchases 2,200 S21XP HYD Miners

On September 17, DL Holdings (Hong Kong Stock Code: 1709) announced it would acquire 2,200 Bitmain S21XP HYD miners through a $21.85 million zero-interest convertible bond transaction, expected to add approximately 1.04 EH/s of hashrate and produce about 200 BTC annually in the initial phase. The company plans to build a reserve of over 4,000 BTC within two years.

For Bitcoin, this increase in institutional deployment from Asia signifies a continuous growth in network hashrate, raising the competitive threshold for miners. In the absence of simultaneous increases in spot prices or fees, this may exert pressure on hash prices.

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Jefferies: August Miner Profitability Declines Due to Rising Hashrate

On September 15, CoinDesk cited a report from Jefferies stating that U.S.-listed mining companies saw a decline in profitability of about 5% in August due to increased network competition. This group mined a total of 3,573 BTC in August, slightly down from 3,598 BTC in July, with MARA having the highest output and maintaining the largest online hashrate. Entering this week, this background explains why some miners are diversifying their income or accelerating efficiency upgrades. For Bitcoin, tightening miner profit margins may increase their sensitivity to price and fee fluctuations, potentially amplifying supply-side reactions during downturns.

"GPU Gold Rush": Miners Accelerate Shift to AI/HPC

Between September 14 and 15, CoinDesk reported that Core Scientific, Hut 8, and TeraWulf are accelerating AI business hosting, as the unit power return rate (revenue per kilowatt-hour) for AI data centers far exceeds that of SHA-256 mining. This week's AI narrative highlights why some miners have reduced Bitcoin sales and are seeking more stable contracts. For Bitcoin, if this transformation is successful, it could reduce forced selling during crypto market downturns, indirectly alleviating supply pressure on the miner side.

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Pure Bitcoin Mining Companies' Stock Prices Reassessed Due to Industry Momentum

On September 18, CoinDesk reported that when Bitcoin prices approached $117,800, stocks of pure Bitcoin mining companies like MARA and CLSK rebounded, sparking discussions about whether these mining companies would be repriced closer to AI/HPC peers. The strengthening stock prices enhance miners' financing options; for Bitcoin, well-capitalized miners can maintain hashrate growth, pushing difficulty upward and exerting pressure on hash prices when price momentum is insufficient.

Total Market Capitalization of Listed Mining Companies Approaches $50 Billion

On September 15, The Miner Mag reported that after a significant rebound in mining company stock prices, the total market capitalization of listed mining companies approached $50 billion, with several companies reaching 52-week highs. The improved equity financing environment reduces the bankruptcy risk for mining companies and supports the continuous upgrade of mining rigs. For Bitcoin, the ongoing enhancement of miners' financing capabilities typically means a stable increase in hashrate and a higher security budget for the network.

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Difficulty Expected to Adjust Upward Around September 18

Monitoring data this week indicates that the Bitcoin network will face another upward adjustment in difficulty during the September 18 adjustment window, consistent with the trend of increasing hashrate. Real-time difficulty panels show that the network difficulty in the latter part of this week is in the 140T-143T range. The increase in difficulty enhances network security, but in the absence of a price change for Bitcoin, it will compress miner profit margins, a dynamic that may prompt weaker operators to increase selling pressure during price rebounds.

Mining Stocks Outperform Bitcoin in September

On September 19, CryptoRank summarized that several mining company stocks (including Bitfarms and Cipher) recorded gains in September that significantly exceeded Bitcoin's performance. The outperformance of mining company equities broadens their financing channels for hardware and infrastructure. For Bitcoin, stronger mining company balance sheets typically mean a continuation of the upward trend in difficulty, which helps enhance network security; however, if there is a lack of synchronized growth in Bitcoin prices or fee income, it may exert pressure on hash prices.

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Bitcoin News

Global Corporate and National Bitcoin Holdings (This Week's Statistics)

1. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) Adds 525 BTC

On September 15, 2025, Strategy disclosed the purchase of 525 Bitcoin during the period from September 8 to 14, totaling approximately $60.2 million, with an average price of about $114,700. This was the smallest increase in scale for the company in the past month, raising its total holdings to approximately 638,9xx BTC (data varies slightly by source). This indicates that the company continues to maintain a steady demand for Bitcoin even as prices fluctuate in the $115,000 range.

2. American Bitcoin Corp Discloses Holding 2,443 BTC for the First Time

In reports from September 17-18, the company disclosed holding 2,443 Bitcoin (valued at approximately $285 million) after going public through a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining on September 3. Although this is not a new purchase, the disclosure of holdings by this newly listed company increases transparency and highlights the expanding group of U.S. publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin.

3. Hyperscale Data Launches $100 Million Bitcoin Reserve Strategy and Updates Holdings

On September 15, 2025, Hyperscale Data announced the launch of a $100 million Bitcoin reserve strategy. A follow-up announcement on September 16 stated that the company's Bitcoin holdings had increased to approximately $7 million. This adds a new source of corporate demand to the market for this quarter, expected to continue buying in phases in Q4.

4. China's Next Technology Holding Plans Up to $500 Million Stock Financing to Support BTC Strategy

On September 16, 2025 (reported three days earlier), China's largest publicly listed company holding Bitcoin assets, Next Technology Holding, announced plans to raise $500 million through common stock issuance, with funds allocated to operations and Bitcoin-related strategies. While this is not an immediate on-chain increase, the financing plan indicates that Asian companies continue to view Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

5. Public Bitcoin Holdings: Slowdown in August, New Additions in September

On September 14, 2025 (reported four days earlier), CoinDesk reported that publicly listed companies purchased a total of 47,718 Bitcoin (approximately $5.2 billion) in August, less than half of July's pace. However, overall corporate holdings have surpassed 1 million Bitcoin for the first time. Entering September, the new additions are smaller in scale (such as Strategy's +525 BTC) but continue to show stable demand with more selectivity.

6. Traditional Large Institutions' Allocation Attitude: Large Asset Managers Focus on Bitcoin

This week (four days earlier), The Wall Street Journal reported on Capital Group's investment portfolio activities, with investment manager Mark Casey holding a positive attitude towards Bitcoin, managing funds involving billions of dollars in Bitcoin and related company stocks. Although this is not a direct increase in holdings, it reflects the ongoing recognition from institutions, likely supporting further corporate-level allocations in the future.

7. CDT Equity Purchases 8.65 BTC

On September 17, 2025, CDT Equity Inc. announced the purchase of 8.65252366 Bitcoin for $1,000,000, with an average cost of about $115,285. The company stated this is the first step in its crypto reserve strategy. Even small-scale allocations from publicly listed companies add stable buying demand to the market.

8. GSTechnologies Allocates $2 Million to Establish Bitcoin Reserve

On September 17, 2025, GSTechnologies disclosed that it has allocated $2 million to purchase Bitcoin and plans to continue accumulating in the future "strategic range." This adds another UK-listed company to the corporate buying camp.

9. Hyperscale Data Increases Allocation by $5 Million, Bitcoin Holdings Rise to $7 Million

On September 16, 2025, Hyperscale Data stated that it has allocated $5 million for recent open market purchases, raising its Bitcoin holdings to approximately $7 million as of September 14. The company committed to providing weekly updates during the execution of the $100 million plan.

10. Hyperscale Data Holdings Rise Again to $8 Million, Accounting for 34% of Market Value

On September 18, 2025, Hyperscale Data updated that its Bitcoin holdings have reached $8 million, approximately 34% of the company's market value. The increase comes from new purchases and self-mined Bitcoin. Frequent updates highlight its role as a programmatic buyer in the spot market.

11. American Bitcoin Corp Holds 2,443 BTC at Listing

On September 17-18, Barron's reported that the newly listed American Bitcoin Corp disclosed holding 2,443 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $285 million. The company plans to further expand its mining business and reserve holdings, adding a large corporate holder to the market.

12. ProCap BTC Reports Over $60 Million in Unrealized Gains

On September 18-19, ProCap BTC stated that it had previously accumulated approximately 4,950 Bitcoin, with a weighted average cost of about $104,334. As Bitcoin rose to $117,620 on September 17, its holdings showed an unrealized gain of over $60 million. This disclosure reinforces the sensitivity of corporate reserves to fluctuations in spot prices.

13. Japan's Metaplanet to Complete Large-Scale Financing to Increase Bitcoin Holdings

On September 17, 2025, Bitcoin Magazine reported that Japan's listed company Metaplanet plans to complete a large financing round in September-October, investing the funds into Bitcoin while expanding its mining business. This week's guidance indicates that corporate reserve demand from non-U.S. entities will continue to increase in the near term.

14. A Quarter of Public Bitcoin Holding Companies' Stock Prices Below Their BTC Holding Value

Currently, about 25% of publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin have stock prices below the market value of their Bitcoin holdings, highlighting the divergence in equity valuations. This finding is significant for Bitcoin, as discounted trading may trigger capital operations or mergers, altering corporate holding patterns.

15. Bitcoin Treasury Corporation Upgraded to OTCQX Trading Tier

On September 18, 2025, OTC Markets announced that Bitcoin Treasury Corporation has officially entered the OTCQX trading tier. Although this is an exchange-level action rather than a new holding increase, improved market access is expected to expand investor participation in Bitcoin reserve companies, indirectly promoting future holding growth.

16. Amazing AI PLC Updates Reserve Policy and Begins Bitcoin Purchases This Month

On September 18, 2025, Amazing AI PLC updated its crypto reserve policy, adding BTC and ETH allocations, and stated it would begin purchasing this month, funded by its accelerated book-building issuance completed on September 11. This week's policy update indicates another company planning to actively enter the Bitcoin market.

Coinbase CEO Confirms Kevin Durant's Bitcoin Account Has Been Restored

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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong ended speculation on September 19 regarding NBA superstar Kevin Durant's locked Bitcoin account, confirming that the player has successfully regained access. Durant initially opened his Coinbase account nearly a decade ago and began purchasing Bitcoin in 2016 when the price was around $650. Now, with Bitcoin priced around $117,000, even early small investments have grown to millions of dollars in value.

BTC Inc. Renews Five-Year Partnership with Strategy to Accelerate Corporate Bitcoin Adoption

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On September 19, 2025, BTC Inc. and Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) announced the renewal of their five-year strategic partnership, launching the "Bitcoin for Corporations" (BFC) program. BFC currently brings together 38 member companies, controlling about 69% of corporate Bitcoin holdings, making it the world's leading corporate Bitcoin asset management platform. This renewal aims to strengthen BFC's role as a trusted network for financial executives, service providers, and capital allocators integrating Bitcoin into corporate finance.

Saylor Warns Against Modifying Bitcoin Protocol

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), stated this week that Bitcoin has entered a "solidification phase," and any modifications to the protocol should be viewed as a survival threat rather than innovation. He emphasized that stability and immutability are Bitcoin's most important assets at present, positioning it as a potential currency standard. In his view, attempts to modify Bitcoin would undermine its trust and adoption, as the long-term value of the Bitcoin network stems from its resistance to changes.

Trump Statue and Durant Account News Trigger Market Volatility

This week, Bitcoin prices experienced a decline, partly due to unusual news from Washington D.C.: the unveiling of a Donald Trump statue holding a Bitcoin sign. This move attracted media attention but also coincided with broader market tensions. Meanwhile, NBA superstar Kevin Durant regained access to his Coinbase account from ten years ago, containing assets purchased when Bitcoin was around $650. Although Durant's experience highlights the significant gains from long-term holding, traders reacted more strongly to political events, resulting in short-term price volatility for Bitcoin.

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PayPal Launches "Links" Feature Supporting Cryptocurrency Transfers

PayPal announced the launch of a new feature called PayPal Links, allowing users to send Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and its stablecoin PYUSD via shareable URLs. Recipients can accept payments without exposing their banking information, and links can be sent through messaging apps or email. This service will initially roll out in the U.S. and expand to international markets later this month. By integrating direct transfers of BTC and ETH, PayPal continues to promote cryptocurrency interoperability, currently boasting over 400 million users.

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