Matrixport Research: The fifth bull market of Bitcoin has entered a mature stage, with macro factors and liquidity as key variables

The evolution of this Bitcoin cycle is distinctly different from previous ones. As early as October 2022, when the bear market hit bottom, and after confirming the launch signal in June 2023, Bitcoin's price successfully broke through $125,000 in 2025, setting a new historical high. With the target range achieved, the market focus has shifted from "whether to enter a bull market" to "when it will come to an end." Unlike earlier cycles that relied on retail investors and technical narratives, this cycle is more driven by macro liquidity and institutional capital, and its structural characteristics are determining the sustainability of future price centers.

Accelerating Market Maturation: Bitcoin Narrative Shifts from Technology to Capital Logic

After four rounds of bull and bear market alternations, Bitcoin's pricing logic has shifted from technological innovation to capital flow and macro variables. The 2011 market failed due to weak infrastructure; the markets in 2013 and 2017 ended due to tightened regulations and speculative overheating, respectively; while the peak in 2021 was driven by the Federal Reserve's exit from easing. Entering the current cycle, the market infrastructure is more complete, and the proportion of institutional holdings has increased, making prices increasingly sensitive to changes in interest rates and liquidity. Since the BIP 91 upgrade, Bitcoin has gradually established its status as "digital gold," and its volatility is synchronizing with traditional financial markets.

New Capital and Policy Expectations Determine Cycle Endpoints

This cycle may peak under two scenarios: first, if the Federal Reserve turns hawkish again and global liquidity tightens; second, if new capital inflows are weak and unable to absorb early profit-taking. The realization of prices by short-term holders and the 21-week moving average are seen as key risk signals; once breached, it may indicate a waning upward momentum. The continuation space for Bitcoin depends on capital availability and institutional risk appetite, rather than retail speculation.

Overall, Bitcoin is entering a mature phase centered on macro and institutional logic. The intense volatility of the fourth bull market has led the market to shift from "technical narratives" back to "capital realities." The height of future cycles will be jointly determined by global interest rates, liquidity, and the pace of capital inflows.

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Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.