CryptoQuant CEO: The four-year cycle is hard to replicate, and ETF and MSTR buying levels may determine market momentum

According to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, on the X platform: "I have given up predicting Bitcoin prices, but I have not given up analyzing data," and released Bitcoin data analysis: selling pressure outweighs demand, leverage remains high; if ETF/MSTR resumes net buying, momentum may restart.

Specifically: the average cost across the network is $55,900, with an average unrealized profit of ~+93%; this week, Realized Cap increased by $8B, on-chain inflows remain strong, but prices are suppressed by selling pressure. Incremental buying is concentrated in ETFs/treasuries; Binance traders and miners have a cost of about $56K (with unrealized profits nearly doubling), and the willingness to cash out has increased. The "multiple difference" between market cap and realized cap has moderately widened, but it has not reached extreme exuberance. The inflow of BTC from spot to futures has significantly decreased, and high-confidence bulls have reduced; leverage remains higher than two years ago after liquidations, and volatility risks still exist. Hashrate has reached a new high (about 5.96 million ASICs), and listed mining companies continue to expand, indicating a long-term bullish fundamental outlook. Recent net buying by ETFs and strategies has slowed; if the pace resumes, market momentum is likely to return. Ki pointed out that incremental liquidity has become more diversified, making it difficult for Bitcoin to fully follow the traditional four-year cycle.