2026 Outlook: These six structural forces are paving the way for the next cycle

Original Title: Road to 2026: 6 Trends Shaping Crypto

Original Author: 0xJeff, AI Investor

Original Compilation: Dingdang, Odaily Planet Daily

2025 is set to be a challenging year for the crypto industry—despite the current U.S. president's promise to make the U.S. a global center for crypto and AI, this year's crypto market remains quite tough.

Since Trump officially took office in January, the market has repeatedly faced pressure moments, with the most devastating being the flash crash in October—this plunge nearly paralyzed the entire crypto industry.

Although the ripple effects of this flash crash have yet to be fully resolved, the macro backdrop and favorable industry factors are pointing towards a more positive quarter and a more optimistic outlook for 2026.

This article will delve into six trends that are reshaping the crypto industry behind the scenes, providing you with an early preview of what 2026 might look like. Let's get started.

1. Prediction Markets = Crypto Version of Options Products Finding PMF

Prediction markets (PM) have recently made breakthroughs at the industry level, with their weekly nominal trading volume hitting a new historical high of $3 billion two weeks ago.

We are witnessing a rapid expansion of market types—politics, sports, esports, pop culture, mentions markets, macroeconomics, crypto, finance, earnings reports, technology, and more, all flourishing.

@Polymarket and @Kalshi are developing in the direction of "everything can be predicted," covering all hot topics; while emerging PM projects like @trylimitless and @opinionlabsxyz are digging deep into vertical niches—Opinion focuses on pure macro markets, providing predictions on economic indicators like interest rates in the U.S., EU, and Japan; Limitless focuses on crypto assets, offering a wider range of coins and richer time frames for the market.

Crypto options were all the rage during the 2021 bull market but later declined due to multiple issues, the most critical being poor UI/UX and lack of liquidity.

Prediction markets perfectly fill the gap left by options. They provide an extremely user-friendly interface that allows anyone without financial knowledge to bet on any event; at the same time, they attract user participation by creating engaging markets, allowing anyone to participate as market makers and traders (betting on both "yes" and "no"). Instead of grappling with a bunch of Greek letters and complex terminology, you simply need to buy Yes or No shares.

Like options, users can also use prediction markets to hedge their asset exposure.

For example:

• Did you receive a large airdrop but want to hedge early? Go buy No in that market.
• Is your portfolio too long? Go buy No in the macro or BTC market.

You get the idea.

Prediction markets essentially repackage options into a more mainstream product that everyone can participate in and profit from, with one of the biggest beneficiaries being machine learning/prediction teams.

2. Prediction Markets = Perfect Testing Ground for Machine Learning Teams

More and more teams are doubling down on prediction markets, refining their signals and models, such as: @sportstensor, @SynthdataCo, @sire_agent, @AskBillyBets, etc.

Sportstensor serves as the liquidity provider layer for Polymarket, allowing any PM trader to participate in signal competitions. The best-performing signals can earn Alpha token incentives, and these signals will also feed back into Sportstensor to further enhance its prediction models for future profitability.

Synth is taking the "high-frequency hedge fund" route in prediction markets, using its own signals to predict crypto asset prices for 1 hour and 24 hours, and betting in the prediction market. Current preliminary results show—growing from $3,000 to $15,000 in a month, yielding a 500% return.

Sire is building an Alpha Vault, utilizing Sire's models and SN44 Score data for sports predictions, with current preliminary results exceeding 600% PnL. It is the best prediction market DeFi vault product currently preparing for public release.

Billy provides analysis and automated betting tools, leveraging the team's sports betting insights (BCS). They are looking for their advantages in Kalshi's parlays market and plan to expand their strategies and vault size (future profits will be returned to token holders once the vault size reaches a threshold).

The allure of prediction markets lies in their natural ability to foster multiple scenarios akin to "Darwinian AI competitions," where ML teams can prove their strategies in real market environments.

Synth, Sire, and Billy can all participate in Sportstensor's competitions and will soon be able to join @aion5100's @futuredotfun, which plans to launch the War of Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi.

What's even cooler is that Polymarket is about to release the Poly token, and new PM projects are also attracting liquidity and trading volume through token incentives. Machine learning teams can find mispricings and arbitrage while also earning token incentives.

Does this remind you of the early days of Hyperliquid?

The same thing is happening again, but this time in prediction markets rather than perpetual contracts.

3. Neobank Wars Begin

We are seeing a key change: large Web2 startups and enterprises are launching L1/L2 and integrating stablecoin payment links to directly serve users. At the same time, crypto-native projects are pushing into real-world financial services.

Teams like @etherfi, @useTria, @AviciMoney, and @URglobal now offer non-custodial crypto debit cards, allowing users to spend on-chain assets in the real world.

In just a year, this market has transformed from a blue ocean into a crowded battlefield, with 20-30 heavyweight players competing for the same batch of crypto users.

Current differentiation mainly focuses on:

· Cashback / Rebate Rates: Tria offers the highest cashback but requires an annual fee.

· Exchange Rates, Transfer, ATM Fees

· Benefits Systems (travel, hotel tiers, airport lounges, events)

· Earn / DeFi Integration (idle fund earnings, borrowing for consumption): EtherFi leads in this direction, offering high yields + borrowing for consumption capabilities.

Despite this, most products have the same underlying structure. They rely on partner banks/issuers holding Visa/Mastercard licenses, making them more like "user acquisition gateways" rather than true Neobanks.

Thus:

• Compliance is managed by partner banks, not the projects themselves.
• Users' balances are just virtual accounts, not real bank accounts.
• Functions typically stop at "crypto spending," lacking a complete fiat off-ramp or banking services.

Currently, everyone is constrained by these limitations, so the impact is minimal. But as competition intensifies, whoever can become the "real bank" will have a core advantage. Projects that can control their own compliance and regulatory frameworks will be able to offer real bank accounts, multi-currency deposit and withdrawal channels, and achieve seamless integration between crypto and traditional finance.

In this regard, UR (from the Mantle ecosystem) is a step ahead, currently operating under FINMA regulation, holding Swiss banking permissions, supporting seven fiat currencies, and simultaneously supporting real-world and crypto financial services (such as transfers across seven currencies in the traditional banking system).

4. Breakthrough Applications in the Crypto Industry Are Clearer Than Ever

• Trading
• Prediction
• DeFi Yields
• Stablecoins
• Asset Tokenization

We have transitioned from CEX → Spot DEX → Perpetual DEX, all the way to the era of Hyperliquid.

The "super speculative Launchpad" wave led by Pumpdotfun has triggered the rise of numerous narrative-driven on-chain launch platforms.

Prediction markets are developing rapidly, genuinely reaching mainstream users for the first time (we haven't seen such viral spread since the NFT era, and this time people really like the product).

DeFi is fully entering Wall Street with structured yields, interest products, stablecoins, RWA/DePIN, and asset tokenization, as people realize they can "own a piece of the future" and earn yields on it (even using it as collateral for loans).

All key crypto applications are being further amplified: CEXs are launching wallet super apps, such as Base App, Binance, OKX, etc., while other wallets are rapidly expanding capabilities, making it easier for ordinary users to get started.

ICOs are making a comeback—Coinbase has launched the first Monad ICO, and other platforms (Legion, Kaito) are also growing rapidly.

5. Crypto AI Finds PMF

Crypto AI was initially occupied by a bunch of AI Meme coins and GPT shell projects, which called themselves "AI Agents," but now this noise has faded away.

Today, blockchain payments and stablecoins are supporting automated trading between agents; cryptographic technologies like TEE and ZK, combined with token incentives and penalty mechanisms, make AI systems verifiable, controllable, and predictable.

Support layers (such as x402, ERC-8004, programmable wallets, billing frameworks, verifiable reasoning/computation) are laying the groundwork for "seamless collaboration between AI and humans" (the infrastructure allows AI and humans to trade and collaborate seamlessly anytime and anywhere, providing protective mechanisms to prevent AI from going out of control).

At the same time, "Darwinian AI" is rising as a meta-layer competition, driving agent evolution, optimizing signals, and improving performance through real incentives. The most successful use cases remain trading and prediction signals, which align closely with the crypto industry's DNA.

More ecosystems are adopting this Darwinian model, using token incentives to attract developers, reward contributors, and subsidize R&D, driving higher-quality AI products. Although still in the early stages, some subnets of the Bittensor ecosystem have already shown impressive performance.

Despite this, the token performance of most Crypto AI projects has not synchronously reflected these advancements—many projects are still 30-90% below their TGE prices, even as they deliver real infrastructure and practical utility.

6. DeFi Enters the "Dynamic DeFi" Era

DeFi has long been a core pillar of the crypto industry, with TVL exceeding $130 billion, covering DEX, lending, yield products, and stablecoins.

The advantages of DeFi lie in its programmability, verifiability, and high composability, with top protocols being the most resilient systems in the industry. However, the underlying mechanisms of DeFi have remained largely unchanged over the past five years, with centralized liquidity market-making or lending mechanisms being relatively static.

But now imagine: what if new DeFi protocols could automatically leverage/de-leverage based on the predicted prices of underlying assets, automatically rebalance LP positions, and automatically enter and exit the market?

This marks the beginning of the "Dynamic DeFi Era," driven by AI and machine learning.

Machine Learning Enhanced DeFi

@AlloraNetwork is a core player, collaborating with top protocols to inject machine learning intelligence into traditional DeFi:

• Machine learning-driven centralized LP strategies
• Dynamic leverage management
• Yield optimization based on forward-looking risk signals

These predictions and signals are generated by the Allora reasoning network, where AI/ML engineers can contribute models and earn token rewards through a Darwinian incentive mechanism, designed to reward better-performing models.

AI-Generated and AI-Managed DeFi Strategies

@gizatechxyz and @almanak are also pushing a new class of products:

• Giza is an AI asset manager that intelligently allocates funds across various DeFi protocols.
• Almanak allows AI agents to deploy tokenized strategy vaults within minutes, making it both a fund allocator and a strategy creation platform. This enables Almanak to serve as both a capital allocator (bringing TVL into DeFi projects) and a vault creation platform for fund managers.

As TradFi and DeFi merge more deeply, machine learning strengthens DeFi's core value and risk management, while AI designs more complex strategies. We may see a faster expansion of DeFi in 2026, with a smarter, more autonomous, and more adaptive layer of internet finance emerging.

What's Next?

In 2026, we may witness the convergence of multiple narratives—Crypto, AI, DeFi, RWA, DePIN, and robotics are coming together to form an interoperable digital economy run by both humans and agents.

• DeFi becomes dynamic
• AI drives DeFi expansion to more users
• Crypto payment links, stablecoins, and key applications gain larger user bases
• Neobanks integrate Web2 and Web3
• The scale of prediction markets continues to grow, with machine learning teams becoming a core component

Natural selection accelerates, and only a few assets will truly appreciate.

Crypto projects are more likely to choose IPOs over ICOs, obtaining liquidity, compliance, and scale through traditional capital markets.

The next cycle = The deep integration cycle of TradFi and DeFi.